Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 051230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Sep 05 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at very low levels.  Region 2410 (S19W05,
Axx/alpha) produced the largest event of the period with a B3 flare at
05/0215 UTC.  Other activity included a B2 flare observed at 05/1010 UTC
from Region 2409 (N06W02, Bxo/beta).  Both of these regions, along with
Region 2411 (N13E50, Hsx/alpha), exhibited little change throughout the
period.

A filament eruption, centered near S17E10 and estimated to be 15 degrees
in extent, was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery between 04/1709-1854 UTC.
Analysis of limited coronagraph imagery observed a partial-halo coronal
mass ejection (CME) off the south limb, first visible in LASCO C2
imagery at 04/1948 UTC.  Subsequent WSA-Enlil model output suggests a
possible glancing blow impact at Earth on 08 Sep.  However, additional
analysis will be accomplished as more imagery becomes available.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a slight chance for
C-class flare activity over the next three days (05-07 Sep).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
with a peak flux of 372 pfu observed at 04/1610 UTC.  The greater than
10 MeV proton flux was at background levels this period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels on days one and two (05-06 Sep) as geomagnetic field
activity subsides.  Increased geomagnetic field activity on day three
(07 Sep) is expected to cause electron redistribution and flux levels
are expected to decrease to normal levels.  The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the
forecast period (05-07 Sep).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of the continued influence of a
positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).  Solar wind
speeds were steady at around 450 km/s until 04/1300 UTC when speeds
slowly increased to around 500 km/s.  IMF total field strength values
varied between 5-13 nT and Bz briefly reached a maximum southward
deflection of -10 nT early in the period.  The phi angle was mostly
steady in a positive (away from the Sun) solar sector orientation
throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to begin a slow return to
near-background levels mid-to-late on day one (05 Sep) as CH HSS
influence subsides.  Ambient solar wind values are expected on day two
(06 Sep) under a nominal solar wind environment.  The onset of a pair of
positive polarity CH HSSs on day three (07 Sep) is expected to increase
solar wind speeds to around 500 km/s.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field  was at quiet to unsettled levels CH HSS influence
weakened.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels
for the remainder of day one and throughout day two (06 Sep) as CH HSS
influence weakens.  Field activity is expected to increase to
quiet to active levels on day three (07 Sep) due to the onset of a pair
of positive polarity CH HSSs.


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