Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 081231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Dec 08 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2615 (S06W65,
Cao/beta) continued to decay and produced only low-level B-class flares.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a slight
chance for C-class flares all three days (08-10 Dec).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from normal to high levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue reaching
high levels all three days (08-10 Dec), and the greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of CIR passage, followed by the
onset of the negative polarity, polar connected CH HSS. Total IMF
strength increased and reached near 20 nT by 07/2021 UTC. Total field
strength unsteadily weakened afterwards before settling at about 7 to 9
nT near the periods end. The Bz component was variable, but did undergo
a few prolonged periods of southward direction between 07/2200-08/0300
UTC. Solar wind speed steadily increased from about 350 km/s beginning
at about 07/1730 UTC, to 550 km/s just after 07/2100 UTC. Solar wind
speed slowly decreased afterwards before it increased again beginning
about 08/0430 UTC and reached speeds of 575-600 km/s. The phi angle was
positive (away from Sun) until about 07/1800 UTC when it turned negative
(towards the Sun), with several brief oscillations back into a positive
sector.


.Forecast...
Total IMF strength and solar wind speed are expected to remain elevated
the remainder of day one (08 Dec) under the continuing, early influences
of the CH HSS. Total field strength is anticipated to weaken on day two
(09 Dec), while solar wind speeds are likely to remain over 500 km/s as
CH HSS influences continue. Elevated solar wind speeds are expected to
continue into day three (10 Dec), but are anticipated to begin weakening
as CH HSS effects start waning.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.

.Forecast...
Mostly unsettled to active conditions, with an isolated period of
G1-Minor storming remains likely on day one (08 Dec) due to CH HSS
effects. Day two (09 Dec) is expected to continue experiencing unsettled
to active conditions, with a likely period of isolated G1-Minor storming
during the first half of the day. By day three (10 Dec), conditions are
expected to decrease to quiet and unsettled levels, with isolated active
periods, as the CH HSS effects begin to diminish.


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