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FXXX12 KWNP 260031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Nov 26 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The strongest flare of the period was
a C1 flare at 25/0827 UTC from the NW limb. Coronal dimming was noted
around the flare region in SDO/AIA 193 imagery but no associated coronal
mass ejection (CME) has been observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Another CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 25/0125
UTC, but appears to be associated with a far-side event.

Region 2458 (N08E34, Dai/beta) exhibited growth and magnetic shear in
its intermediate spots. Region 2459 (N04E60, Cai/beta) remained stable
and was inactive. Region 2457 (N12W02, Hsx/alpha) exhibited decay in its
spot number and magnetic complexity.

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for
C-class flares and a slight chance for M-class flares (R1 to R2 - Minor
to Moderate) Radio Blackouts for the next three days (26-28 Nov).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at normal to moderate
levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background
levels throughout the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to
moderate levels over the next three days (26-28 Nov). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels
throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft remained at nominal
levels. Wind speeds gradually decreased from ~290 km/s to ~250 km/s.
Total field strength (Bt) was steady at 3-5 nT while the Bz component
varied between 0 and +4 nT. The phi angle was negative (towards the Sun)
to begin the period, then gradually changed to a positive (away from the
sun) orientation by periods end.

Solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels on day one
(26 Nov). An enhancement from a positive polarity coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS) is likely for days two and three (27-28 Nov).


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet under nominal solar wind conditions.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (26
Nov). Days two and three (27-28 Nov) are expected to see quiet to
unsettled levels due to possible effects from a CH HSS. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.