Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 220031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Nov 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at low levels over the period with Regions 2209
(S15W29, Fko/beta-gamma-delta) and 2216 (S14E54, Dkc/beta-delta)
producing only low-level C1 flares.  Region 2209 appears to have
possible separation of the northern area of its much larger trailing
spot complex.  With that, the delta within the region has the potential
for building up magnetic shear.  Region 2216 rotated further into view
and appeared to have penumbral attachments between the two distinct
polarity masses.  The region is now classified as a beta-delta magnetic
group.  No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
with a chance for an X-class flare (R3/Strong or greater) for the
forecast period (22-24 Nov).  Regions 2209 and 2216 are the most likely
sources for significant flare production.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was
at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels for the forecast period (22-24 Nov).  There is a
slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement at or above
the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold over the next three days
due to potential significant flare activity from Regions 2209 and 2216.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to be slightly enhanced, likely under a
weak positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).  Solar
wind speed ranged from 370 km/s to 440 km/s with total field relatively
steady around 7 nT.  The Bz component was variable between +/-7 nT.  Phi
angle was mostly positive (away) throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to remain slightly
agitated for the next three days (22-24 Nov) as a weak CH HSS continues
to influence the geomagnetic field. Solar wind speeds are likely to be
in the 350 km/s to 450 km/s range.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels during the period.
Active periods were observed from 21/0000-0600 UTC.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to active levels
for the forecast period (22-24 Nov) due to weak CH HSS effects.


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