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FXXX12 KWNP 300030

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Jun 30 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest flare of the period
was produced by Region 2373 (N15E55, Fso/beta), a C2/1F at 29/1807 UTC.
Little development was seen in Region 2373 and Region 2375 (S12E69,
Hsx/alpha) as they rotated onto the disk. Region 2374 (N09W16,
Axx/alpha) decayed further as the period progressed. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections were observed this period.

Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity for days one through three (30 Jun
- 02 Jul).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period
with a peak flux of 7,557 pfu observed at 29/1705 UTC. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux was slightly enhanced this period, but remained below
the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to persist at moderate
to high levels over the next three days (30 Jun - 02 Jul). 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to trends down to near-background levels over days one
through three (30 Jun - 02 Jul).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at ambient conditions. Solar wind speeds were
variable between about 380 to 450 km/s. IMF total field strength values
were steady between 4-8 nT while the Bz component varied between +/- 5
nT. The phi angle was somewhat variable to start the period before
settling into mainly a negative (towards) orientation. The phi angle
transitioned to a mainly positive (away) configuration between
29/0700-0800 UTC, and remained primarily so through the remainder of the

Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels for
day one (30 Jun). A minor enhancement may be reflected from the
influence of a tiny positive polarity coronal hole on day two (01 Jul).
Day three (02 Jul) is expected to see a nominal solar wind.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the
period under an ambient solar wind environment.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on days one through
three (30 Jun - 02 Jul). Isolated periods of unsettled activity are
possible in response to a small positive polarity coronal hole on day
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