Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 251231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Jul 25 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 2121 (N05E37, Cai/beta) produced a C2/1n
flare at 25/0702 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (1,090 km/s)
reported by San Vito observatory. A filament near Region 2121
disappeared between 24/2100 and 2300 UTC (observed in H-alpha imagery)
and a faint CME was visible off the east limb in LASCO C2 imagery at
24/2125 UTC. Further analysis is necessary to determine if the CME is
expected to be geoeffective. All of the regions on the disk were either
stable or in decay.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flare activity (Below R1-Minor) for days one and two (25-26 Jul). Low
conditions are anticipated for day three (27 Jul) with C-class flares
likely and a slight chance for a M-class flare (NOAA Scale R1-minor) due
to the the return of old regions 2108 (S07, L=257) and 2109 (S08,
L=240).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at background levels (Below
S1-Minor) for the next three days (25-27 Jul).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speeds, measured at the ACE spacecraft, ranged between
approximately 305 km/s and 410 km/s. Total field reached a maximum of 7
nT while Bz was variable between -6 nT and +4 nT. The Phi angle was
predominately positive (away) during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to indicate the presence of coronal
hole high speed stream effects (CH HSS) on days one and two (25-26 Jul)
as CH74 (+) moves into a favorable position. Recovery to nominal
conditions is forecast for day three (27 Jul).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled (Below
G1-Minor) for days one and two (25-26 Jul) due to CH effects. Quiet
levels are expected on day three (27 Jul).


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