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FXXX12 KWNP 241230

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Oct 24 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2603 (N13W30, Cro/beta), the lone
numbered sunspot on the visible disk, displayed slight decay and was
absent of significant flare activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available satellite imagery.

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a slight
chance for C-class flares over the next three days (24-26 Oct).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a
peak flux of 1,840 pfu observed at 23/1535 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux continued at background values.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high
levels until the arrival of a recurrent, polar-connected CH HSS on day
one (24 Oct). Electron flux is expected to decrease to normal to
moderate levels on day two (25 Oct) and continue through day three (26
Oct) due to particle redistribution associated with this anticipated CH
HSS arrival. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain
at background levels for all three days (23-25 Oct).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected weak CH HSS influence. Wind speeds
ranged between 400-450 km/s. total field measurements ranged between 2
and 7 nT while the Bz component was mostly southward to -7 nT. Phi angle
was oriented in a positive solar sector for the duration of the
reporting period.

The solar wind environment is expected to become enhanced on day one
(24 Oct) due to the arrival of a recurrent, polar connected, positive
polarity CH HSS. Persistent CH HSS influences are expected to continue
through the remainder of the forecast period. Wind speed in excess of
700 km/s are forecasted with this feature.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels under weak CH HSS

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels in
advance of a positive polarity CH HSS. Active to G1 (Minor) storm
levels, with likely periods of isolated G2 (Moderate) conditions, are
expected on days one through three (24-26 Oct) in response to this
forecasted coronal hole feature. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.