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FXXX12 KWNP 150031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Sep 15 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels when Region 2157 (S17W63,
Dai/beta-gamma) produced an M1/2n flare at 14/0216 UTC, which was the
largest event of the period. Regions 2157 and 2158 (N16W53,
Dai/beta-gamma) continued minor decay trends this period, but remain the
most threatening regions on the visible disk. New Region 2167 (N07E50,
Axx/alpha) was numbered during the period but was otherwise
unremarkable. The other regions on the visible disk were either stable
or in decay.

A coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with todays M-flare was
observed off the west limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery
beginning at 14/0248 UTC but subsequent analysis indicated that this CME
is well off the Sun-Earth line.

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity and a slight chance for X-class (R3 or
greater) flare activity over the next two days (15-16 Sep).  By day
three (17 Sep) solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance
for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) flare activity as Regions 2157 and 2158 begin
to rotate around the west limb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels and the
greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has a slight chance for reaching S1
(Minor) solar radiation storm levels on days one and two (15-16 Sep) if
significant flare activity occurs.  Background proton flux levels are
expected for day three (17 Sep).  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days
(15-17 Sep).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of recovery from this past weeks
CME influence and were representative of a nominal solar wind regime.
Solar wind speeds decreased from initial values near 625 km/s to
end-of-period values near 450 km/s.  IMF total field values decreased
from 9 nT early in the period to 4 nT late in the period while Bz
remained predominately northward throughout the period.

Solar wind parameters are expected to become slightly enhanced on days
two and three (16-17 Sep) due to the combined influence of a negative
polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) and the arrival of the
12 Sep CME.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.

The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels on day one
(15 Sep), with quiet to active levels on day two (16 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (17 Sep) due to effects from the 12 Sep
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