Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 161231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Dec 16 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remained spotless. At
approximately 15/1229 UTC, SDO/AIA 304 imagery observed a 13 degree long
filament eruption along a channel centered near S25E37. A slow-moving
CME was observed in C2 LASCO imagery, first visible at 15/1448 UTC.
Analysis is ongoing for any Earth-directed component from this event.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next
three days (16-18 Dec).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
with a peak flux of 276 pfu observed at 15/1925 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the next two days (16-17 Dec). An increase to
moderate to high levels is expected for day three (18 Dec) in response
to elevated wind speeds from a recurrent CH HSS. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout
the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated background conditions. Solar wind speeds
averaged about 355 km/s, total field did not exceed 6 nT and the Bz
component did not drop below -3 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a mostly
positive solar sector.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to continue at background levels
until late on day two (17 Dec) when elevated wind speeds and enhanced
total field measurements will announce the arrival of a recurrent,
positive polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds are anticipated to exceed 600 km/s
with this feature.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on days
one and two (16-17 Dec). Late on day two, unsettled to active
conditions are expected due to the anticipated arrival of a recurrent,
positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels are likely on day three (18 Dec) as CH HSS effects linger.



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