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000
FXXX12 KWNP 020031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Aug 02 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels today as M-class flare activity
originated from Regions 2127 (S09E08, Dac/beta-gamma) and 2130 (S07E27,
Ekc/beta-gamma).  The first was an M2 flare at 01/1448 UTC from Region
2130.  This flare had an associated 340 sfu Tenflare and multiple
discreet frequency radio bursts.  The second M-class flare was a long
duration M1 at 01/1813 UTC from Region 2127 with multiple discreet
frequency radio bursts along with associated Type II (563 km/s) and IV
radio sweeps.  Region 2132 (S19E46, Dac/beta-gamma-delta) managed a
C8/Sf flare at 01/0018 UTC.

Region 2127 had penumbral separation in its leading spot group
aggregate.  New flux developed to the east of Region 2130, however it
could not be discerned if it is in fact a separate group in magnetogram
and H-alpha imagery.  Consolidation was observed in the leader spots of
Region 2132 as its growth phase began to abate.

Other activity of note was a filament eruption that occurred in the
northern quadrant near center disk that could be seen beginning in
SDO/AIA 304 imagery at 01/1024 UTC.  A subsequent CME was observed in
SOHO/LASCO imagery at 01/1200 UTC off the NNW limb.  WSA/ENLIL modeling
determined that the ejecta was too far north of the ecliptic to be
geoeffective and was confirmed with STEREO COR 2 imagery.

Analysis of potential CMEs associated with todays M-class flares are
pending the availability of LASCO imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong or
greater) for the forecast period (02-04 Aug) with Regions 2127, 2130, or
2132 as the likely source.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at background levels (Below
S1-Minor) for the next three days (02-04 Aug).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Increasingly disturbed geomagnetic conditions followed a solar sector
boundary crossing yesterday at approximately 31/1130 UTC.  Total field
gradually opened to 11 nT by 01/1346 UTC with prolonged periods of
southward Bz reaching -9 nT.  Solar wind speed showed a steady increase
over the period from approximately 310 km/s to 400 km/s along with a
slight increase in temperature.  Phi angle remained in a mostly positive
(away) sector through the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at slightly enhanced
until mid to late on day 1 (02 Aug) when a glancing blow CME from 30 Jul
is expected to impact the geomagnetic field.  Enhanced solar wind
conditions are likely to extend into day 2 (03 Aug) followed by the
onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) by
day 3 (04 Aug).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated periods of
active levels observed at several magnetometer stations after midday due
to increasingly disturbed conditions following a solar sector boundary
crossing yesterday.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on
days 1-2 (02-03 Aug) as the 30 Jul CME is expected to impact the
geomagnetic field by mid to late on day 1 and persist through day 2.  By
day 3 (04 Aug) CME effects should give way to the onset of a positive
polarity CH HSS causing continued quiet to unsettled levels.


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