Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS01 KWNS 250046
SWODY1
SPC AC 250044

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Though a couple of strong storms remain possible through mid-evening
mainly from west Texas through west central Kansas, overall severe
threat should remain limited the remainder of tonight.

...Southwest Texas through southeast NM...

Satellite data show storms diminishing along westward-surging
outflow boundaries over west TX and southeast NM, but isolated
storms persist, mainly over the higher terrain of west TX. A
strengthening southeasterly low-level jet will augment upslope flow
and may help to sustain or initiate additional storms this evening.
However, the Midland 00Z raob shows weak lapse rates, marginal
instability and a weak kinematic profile which along with loss of
diabatic heating suggest overall severe risk should remain limited
the remainder of tonight.

...Texas Panhandle through western Kansas...

The ana-frontal flow regime suggests storms currently developing
along cold front over western KS  should weaken while becoming
increasingly elevated as they move deeper into the cool side of the
front. Additional storms may develop this evening or overnight along
warm conveyor belt in association with strengthening low-level jet
from the TX panhandle into western KS. However, the weak
thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space suggest severe storms
are unlikely.

..Dial.. 09/25/2017

$$



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