Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS01 KWNS 210039
SWODY1
SPC AC 210037

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
through tonight.

...01Z Outlook Update...
Isolated lightning was evident for at least a brief period earlier
this afternoon (around 21Z) with convection near/west of Blythe CA.
This appeared coincident with destabilization near the mid-level
cold core of the significant upper trough now progressing eastward
across the Great Basin toward the southern Rockies, which appears
likely to overspread the lower deserts around the Phoenix
metropolitan area during the 02-04Z time frame.  As it does, it
might not be out of the question that the remnants of the daytime
mixed boundary layer, coupled with perhaps somewhat better low-level
moisture relative to areas to the west, could contribute to
favorable profiles for additional brief/weak thunderstorms.
However, this risk still seems generally low, with probabilities
less than the minimum 10 percent threshold required for a
categorical thunderstorm outlook.

..Kerr.. 01/21/2018

$$



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