Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS01 KWNS 180045
SPC AC 180044

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z


Thunderstorms are expected overnight across much of the Midwest from
Missouri to Ohio.


Low-level warm advection appears to be increasing across the Midwest
this evening as LLJ strengthens over MO/IL. Scattered convection,
with isolated thunderstorms, continues to evolve along nose of the
LLJ with lightning focused in the vicinity of southern Lake MI. This
elevated activity should translate east into lower MI and the OH
Valley as LLJ veers into this region after midnight.

Late tonight, surface front will begin to surge into more moist air
mass but convection will likely struggle to develop until the end of
the period due to strong capping across MO. 00z sounding from SGF
exhibits strong inhibition above the boundary layer and this should
suppress thunderstorm activity, possibly until after 10z. Convection
that develops along the front will likely be elevated in nature but
strongly sheared. While isolated severe threat can not be ruled out,
potential will be more certain after 18/12z as reflected in latest
day2 outlook.

..Darrow.. 11/18/2017

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