Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 200407
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200407
TXZ000-200500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0072
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1007 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Areas affected...Southwest and Central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 200407Z - 200500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat will be possible late this
evening into the overnight across parts of southwest and central
Texas. Hail and marginally severe wind gusts may be associated with
the stronger cores. Weather watch issuance will probably not be
needed due to the marginal nature of the threat.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a surface trough
extending southward from southeast New Mexico to just west of Del
Rio, Texas. A moist airmass is located to the east of the trough
across southern parts of the Texas Hill Country where surface
dewpoints are in the lower to mid 60s F. This is contributing to
moderate instability with the RAP estimating MLCAPE values in the
1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Water vapor imagery shows a plume of
mid-level moisture extending north-northeastward across northern
Mexico into  Texas. A subtle shortwave trough may be located near
the Rio Grande River in Southwest Texas where thunderstorms are
currently developing in the vicinity of Del Rio. This activity is
forecast to expand in coverage, moving northeastward into western
parts of the Texas Hill Country over the next 2 to 4 hours. The
latest HRRR suggests that some intensification may occur as a line
of storms gradually becomes more defined. Hail and marginally severe
wind gusts will be possible with the stronger cores along the
leading edge.

..Broyles/Hart.. 02/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30920051 30430086 29990115 29410114 29140091 29120053
            29689911 30559827 32179821 32239948 30920051




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