000
FXUS65 KPUB 111153
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
553 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

...VERY WINDY WITH SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE...AND
BLOWING DUST FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...

UPPER TROF ALREADY MOVING INTO NW CO SPREADING SNOW INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS.  ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SPLITS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE STRONGER FORCING MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO...AND THE OTHER PORTION DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN AS A CUT OFF LOW TAKES SHAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN NV LATER
TONIGHT.  SEEMS ENERGY ASSOC WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM PORTION WILL
BE MOST IN-LINE TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY...HOWEVER WE WILL BE
LACKING THE MOISTURE DURING THE WINDOW WHEN THIS STRONGER LIFT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE A STRONG SURGE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR SOUTHEAST CO AS IT MOVES
SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE BY MID-LATE MORNING...THEN THROUGH ALL OF
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY 20Z. SHOULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...AND
COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS APPROACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA IF
AIDED BY SHOWERS WITH SOME ACCELERATION DOWN THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF
THE PALMER DIVIDE.  PROBABILITY FOR THIS LOOKS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
ANY HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW.  SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE PIKES
PEAK REGION AROUND NOON...WITH ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  BEST CHANCE
FOR SNOW WILL ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND TELLER/NRN EL PASO
COUNTIES...AND CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MONUMENT HILL DUE TO RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND POOR
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW.  HOWEVER...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT IMPACT TO NO MORE THAN A 3-4 HOUR
WINDOW OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.  STILL SOME SLICK ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED.  LATEST FORECAST WILL CARRY AROUND 1-3
FOR TELLER AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTIES...WITH SIMILAR AMOUNTS FOR
THE HIGHER AREAS OF THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO RANGES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL NOT CARRY MUCH MOISTURE.  IN
FACT WITH ALL THE WIND FOLLOWING A FEW DRY DAYS SINCE THE LAST
STORM...AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.  WILL BE
ISSUING A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EAST OF THE
I-25 CORRIDOR.  MOST OF THIS AREA ONLY RECEIVED .25 OR LESS OF
LIQUID FROM THE LAST EVENT...THOUGH SOME POCKETS OF UP TO .50 DID
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF OTERO AND CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES. ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR...MORE SUBSTANTIAL LIQUID EQUIVALENTS FELL...SO
THINK THIS MAY HELP KEEP BLOWING DUST FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD.
BUT AS ALWAYS...ITS DIFFICULT TO TELL FOR SURE UNTIL THE WIND STARTS
TO BLOW.  CONCERNS ARE THAT IF THE GROUND HAS DRIED OUT
SUFFICIENTLY...ITS POSSIBLE THAT SOUTHERN EL PASO AND PUEBLO
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY.  AND IF
SOIL IS LOOSE ENOUGH FARTHER EAST...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A BLOWING DUST WARNING IF VISIBILITIES
FALL TO LESS THAN 1/4 MILE.

SNOW SPREADS INTO THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WETS AND SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY. THESE
AREAS COULD PICK UP 1-3 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS.  THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST MTS WILL
SEE THEIR BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW COME IN THIS EVENING AS DEEPER NE
FLOW AND MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE SANGRES AND INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.  OVERALL...AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...PROBABLY ONLY AN INCH OR TWO AT BEST. SNOW FADES QUICKLY
AFTER 06Z...AND SHOULD SEE MOST AREAS CLEARING OUT BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL
ISSUES INCLUDE TEMPERATURES...POPS AT TIMES...GUSTY WINDS AT
TIMES AS WELL AS ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT TIMES.

RECENT COMPUTER DATA AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA FROM
12Z WEDNESDAY UNTIL 21Z THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

INITIALLY...EXPECT THAT BASICALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN ANTICIPATED
OVER PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT LOCATIONS
THAT WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING HEAVIER
ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. IN
ADDITION...THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...THE WET
MOUNTAINS...THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EVEN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
TELLER COUNTY WILL ALSO HAVE A POSSIBILITY OF RECEIVING
ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

PROJECT THAT THE FORECAST DISTRICT WILL THEN EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
REPRIEVE FROM THE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS SOUTHERN SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

THIS RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING BUT POTENTIALLY VIGOROUS SYSTEM WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS TO MANY LOCATIONS(ESPECIALLY FROM
LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT). AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT LOCATIONS THAT WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING
HEAVIER ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING SYSTEM
WILL BE THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...THE WET MOUNTAINS...THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...PORTIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AND POSSIBLY SECTIONS
OF NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THESE POTENTIAL INCOMING
SYSTEMS AND ISSUE HIGHLIGHTS AS NEEDED.

A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO IS THEN
ANTICIPATED FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS.

GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN AGAIN BY LATER MONDAY. IN
ADDITION...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FINALLY...TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR MID-MARCH CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES SHOULD BE NOTED FROM THURSDAY INTO MONDAY WITH COOLEST
READINGS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY. WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONGER TERM SHOULD BE NOTED BY NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE AT KCOS AND KPUB AFTER
18Z.  SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION AROUND
17-18Z...WITH MVFR CIGS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AFFECTING
KCOS AFTER 19-20Z.  RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW RAPIDLY AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS AT THE KCOS TERMINAL
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER 1/2 INCH.  KPUB
WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED AS SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED
AND SPOTTY IN NATURE.  KALS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE TODAY.  ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CIGS/VIS REMAINING VFR AS WINDS
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.  ANY SNOWFALL AT KALS WILL BE SPOTTY AND
LIGHT AND NOT LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE AT THE TERMINAL.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ089-093>099.

&&

$$