000
FXUS65 KPUB 251608
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1008 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

UPDATED POPS PER LATEST RADAR/SAT OBS. PRECIP A BIT SLOWER
TO DEVELOP COMPARED TO MODEL SIMULATIONS. STILL NOT SEEING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OVER THE DVD AND THERE IS A LACK
OF TCU OVR THE MTS PER WINDOW CHECK. STILL EXPECT STORMS
TO DEVELOP RATHER QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HEATING
CONTINUES AND MONSOONAL PLUME DRIFTS OVER THE AREA. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BROUGHT IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED SKY COVER A LITTLE. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

...INCREASED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY...

PATTERN IS GRADUALLY MOISTENING WITH TIME.  THIS MORNING...MONSOON
PLUME APPEARS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...FROM WEST TO EAST.
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOW RANGING FROM A
MINIMUM OF ABOUT 0.75 INCHES ACROSS LAKE COUNTY...TO ABOUT 1.10
INCHES OVER BACA COUNTY.  IN GENERAL...MOST LOCATIONS HAVE A CLOSE
TO AN INCH OR MORE OF WATER AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION...EXCEPT
ACROSS LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WHERE AVAILABLE AMOUNTS ARE
CLOSER TO 3 QUARTERS OF AN INCH.  IN ANY EVENT...THERE IS MORE THAN
ADEQUATE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. WIND SHEAR CONTINUES RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT REMAINS LOW.  PRIMARY CONCERNS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.  IF OVER A BURN SCAR...
THERE COULD BE FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS.

IN GENERAL...THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS BETTER ENTRENCHED OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO TODAY THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE
IS A BIT HIGHER. ALSO...THE PLUME NOW COVERS MORE OF THE
AREA...EXTENDING FARTHER EAST ONTO THE PLAINS THAN IT DID YESTERDAY.
AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN YESTERDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM CELLS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER.  BURN SCARS WILL HAVE TO BE ON WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING SHOULD THE WRONG STORM MOVE THROUGH.
STORM MOVEMENTS...WHILE NOT GREAT IN SOME CASES...SHOULD GENERALLY
BE FROM WEST TO EAST AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AND REMAINS
GENERALLY WEAK THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SLOWLY BUILDING NORTH AND WEST
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND GREAT BASIN REGION...AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES PHASES WITH
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH CARVING OUT ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. STRONG LATE JULY SOLAR HEATING...COMBINED WITH
MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR SLIDING
DOWN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO...WILL ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WARM AIR UNDER THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OF AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH DEW PTS PROGGED IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO OWNING TO PWATS BETWEEN 1 1/2 TO 2
1/2 TIMES OF NORMAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...GREATEST ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. LATEST MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING THE TAIL END OF
PASSING SHORT WAVE...ALONG WITH MINOR EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
RIDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND FOUR CORNERS...AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY. WITH THAT SAID...COULD SEE AN EARLIER START TO
CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY SLOW MOVING LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING AREA WIDE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF
STORMS.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...NO BIG CHANGES PROGGED IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS KEEPS COOL AND WET WEATHER IN PLAY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS...GREATEST OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PWATS PROGGED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 1 1/2 TO 2
TIMES NORMAL LEVELS LEADING TO THE CONTINUED THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING... AGAIN GREATEST ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS...WHERE LATEST WPC TOTAL 7 DAY QPF ENDING AT 00Z FRI AUG
1ST HAS 2 INCHES TO LOCALLY 5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE LAST WEEK OF JULY LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE EXPECTED
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MONSOON PLUME MORE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO TODAY.
CONSEQUENTLY...MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED...WITH
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR CELLS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.  PLUME ALSO
EXTENDS FARTHER EAST THAN YESTERDAY...SO STORMS EXPECTED EAST OF
INTERSTATE 25 AS WELL AS WEST OF IT.

WINDOW FOR STORMS TODAY WILL LIKELY START A BIT EARLIER. STORMS
SHOULD FIRE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WORK TOWARD THE I-25 CORRIDOR
FROM 16Z TO 20Z AND THEN START SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
AFTER 20Z.  MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY AROUND 03Z...ALTHOUGH
A FEW STRAGGLERS MAY PERSIST ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER AND OVER THE
MOUNTAINS UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

MVFR/IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN STORMS.  ALSO CONCERNS
OF LIGHTNING...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN.  ALL 3 TAF SITES
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS IN THE VICINITY TODAY...GENERALLY
AFTER 18Z AT KALS...AFTER 19Z AT KCOS AND AFTER 20Z AT KPUB.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW