000
FXUS65 KPUB 262217
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
317 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

...RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO HAS BROUGHT SUNNY
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO GET CLOSE TO TYING RECORD HIGHS TODAY.  AS OF 3 PM...COS WAS ONLY
2 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE OLD RECORD OF 68 SET IN 1982...AND PUEBLO
ONLY 3 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE OLD RECORD 74 IN 1951.  ALS HAS WARMED
TO 52 DEGREES SO FAR...WHICH IS 5 AWAY.  WINDS HAVE BEEN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE FOR MOST AREAS...WHICH IS LIKELY THE MITIGATING FACTOR TO
HITTING THESE VALUES...BUT IT COULD STILL COME CLOSE IN COLORADO
SPRINGS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD OVER CO.  LEE TROFFING SHOULD KEEP A RIBBON OF UPPER 30S
FOR LOWS ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS/ADJACENT
PLAINS. CHANGES START TO COME IN FOR TUESDAY AS THE TROF AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEAKENS AND LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST.  SHOULD START TO SEE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  BRUNT
OF THE FORCING PASSES OFF TO THE WEST...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR
PRECIPITATION.  IN FACT...AIRMASS IS SO WARM AHEAD THIS SYSTEM...MAY
SEE A RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 10KFT.  SPOTTY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

MEANWHILE...TUESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS. IT COULD BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE
HIGH CLOUDS TEMPERING HEATING SOME...VS THE WEST WINDS WHICH SHOULD
AID IN MIXING/DOWNSLOPE WARMING.  WILL BANK ON THE WINDS AND GO
CLOSE TO RECORD VALUES WHICH ARE 73 DEGREES IN PUB (SET IN
2003)...67 IN COS (SET IN 1970). -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

...CHANCE OF SOME SNOW BY THE WEEKEND...

LATEST GFS IS BETTER IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF...IN BRINGING A COLDER
AIR MASS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR
PERHAPS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE PLAINS.

WEDNESDAY REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND ON THE WARM SIDE...THOUGH NOT THE
NEAR-RECORD SETTING WARMTH THAT WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING. A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THROUGH NRN CO WILL CLIP THE AREA AND
SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHSN TO THE CENTRAL MTS...BUT NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO USHER IN COOLER
AIR. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY...COULD
SEE HIGHS WED THAT ARE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT FOR NOW
WILL STICK WITH A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
60S FOR THE PLAINS...WHICH IS STILL ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN LATE ON THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE DESERT SW AND A SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK ACROSS THE PACNW AND
INTER MTN REGION. THIS SPLIT SYSTEM HAS SOME SIMILARITIES TO OUR
LAST SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW WELL
PHASED THE NRN AND SRN SYSTEMS END UP. MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT
IS FOR SOME LIGHT-MODT SNOW ACCUMS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
POTENTIALLY HEAVY ACCUMS FOR THE MTS. SUSPECT HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE SW MTS SINCE THERE IS A GOOD SWRLY TRAJECTORY EARLY
IN THE PERIOD...BUT IT IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY.

AFTER THIS NEXT STORM MOVES THROUGH...THE MODELS DIVERGE...WITH THE
EC PROGGING A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WHILE THE GFS HANGS ON TO THE
POSITIVE PNA THAT WE HAVE SEEN SO MUCH OF RECENTLY. EITHER SCENARIO
WOULD KEEP THE PLAINS WARM AND DRY...WHILE THE MTS COULD SEE SOME
MORE SNOW IF THE GFS SOLUTION PANS OUT. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  INVADING HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BRING BKN200 CIGS AT
TIMES ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA.  WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE STRONGER FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST...WITH KPUB SEEING GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...KT