000
FXUS65 KPUB 270527
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1127 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 902 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Updated for cancellation of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch and for
current pcpn trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Currently...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing over
the mountain areas early this afternoon, while a severe thunderstorm
near Kit Carson will continue to drop south over the next couple of
hours approaching Kiowa County.  Temperatures are warm with lower to
mid 80s across the Eastern Plains and dewpoints remain elevated in
the mid to upper 50s, providing fuel for thunderstorm development
this afternoon.

Through Tonight...high pressure aloft will start to shift eastward
across Colorado with westerly flow developing statewide late tonight.
This evening, an upper level impulse will shift southeast across
Colorado in the northwest flow aloft.  This will help trigger
thunderstorms across the area through the evening hours.  Low level
southeast flow will keep moisture banked up over the mountain areas
which will likely aid in precipitation generation.  Modest
instability and shear may allow for one or two storms to become
strong, if not severe through this evening.  High-res model data has
slowly been ramping thunderstorm coverage this morning, so have
higher confidence that coverage will be greater than previously
forecast.  Locations over the Mountains, southeast into the Plains,
generally south of Highway 50 will see the best chances through the
evening hours.  Threat include lightning, locally heavy rainfall and
hail approaching nickel size.  Given the moisture content in the
atmosphere, burn scars may be under the threat for locally heavy
rainfall and flash flooding potential.  Thunderstorm activity should
spread south and east overnight clearing the region by 3 am.  Dry
conditions are expected to prevail into Tuesday morning.

Tuesday...the upper ridge will shift east into the Central Plains
tomorrow with westerly zonal flow increasing across the area through
the afternoon.  Expect increased mixing of westerly flow and dry air
down into the San Luis Valley, and east into the I-25 corridor.
This will also help temperature warm into the mid 90s for much of
the region.  Red flag conditions are expected to be present in the
San Luis Valley and Fremont County where fuels are deemed critical.
Elsewhere, the I-25 corridor will dry out, but fuels are not
considered critical at this time.

The main question will be what happens to the east, generally from
an Eads to Kim line.  Models have been generating convection along a
boundary by mid afternoon and tracking it east into western Kansas
by the evening hours.  Sufficient CAPE and shear will be present to
strong to severe storms, but coverage looks pretty minimal at this
point.  For areas east of this line, be prepared for a severe storm
or two during the afternoon and evening with large hail and gusty
outflow winds being the primary threats.  Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Tuesday night through Thursday...Westerly zonal flow settles in
across the region, providing for dry and warm conditions. Convection
is expected to be isolated at best as the westerly flow pushes the
drier air into the plains, and storm activity will likely focus on
wherever the dryline resides along the CO/KS border. Temps will
climb into the 80s for the high valleys, and upper 80s to mid 90s
for the e plains. An upper low crossing Canada and northern Montana
will push a cold front south, reaching the eastern Colorado plains
on Thu. The front is forecast to drop south across the Palmer Divide
late Thu aftn, and should be late enough to not affect the max temp
for Thu.

Friday and Saturday...The Thu aftn cold front will produce easterly
upslope flow across the e plains for both Fri and Sat, cooling temps
and causing a slight increase in pcpn chances, especially for Sat
aftn and eve. Look for high temps in the upper 70s and 80s for most
locations both days.

Sunday and Monday...There are some differences between the models,
but in general the trend is for high pressure to rebuild back into
the desert SW. This will bring warmer temps and isolated diurnal
convection to the mts and e plains. Look for max temps in the 80s
for the high valleys,  and upper 80s to lower 90s for the e plains.
Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

VFR conditions are expected at KCOS, KPUB and KALS for the next 24
hrs. Gusty southwest to west winds will develop at the terminal
forecast sites either in the late morning hours or early
afternoon, with gusts around 25 kts into the early evening hours.
Late Tue afternoon, there is a small chance that thunderstorms
will develop in the vicinity of KCOS and KPUB, but chances are too
low to include in terminal forecast at this time.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ222-224.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28