Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 161044

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
344 AM MST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM MST Sat Dec 16 2017

Upper trof will approach western Colorado over the next 24 hours
with invading cirrus the most obvious sign of its approach today.
Cold front will be making a push across the plains today with colder
air lagging until this afternoon. So high temperatures across the
plains should still top out in the 50s.  Initially this surge will
be dry though northerly winds will become breezy in the afternoon
across the plains.  Minimum relative humidity values should stay
above critical fire weather thresholds and RHs will increase into
this evening as colder air arrives.

For tonight...models have backed off on precipitation for the I-25
corridor and plains with only areas under the gun for possible
flurries or freezing drizzle being Kiowa and Northern El Paso
counties.  Forcing aloft will be weak with system splitting as it
moves across CO, so main influence for lift will be shallow
orographic upslope on the north side and crest of the Palmer Divide.
Will carry some isolated -SN and -FZDZ for that area late tonight.
Kiowa county will carry silent pops for now given the varying model
solutions and trends. Any accumulations look to be spotty and very
light at this point so potential for travel impacts should be low.
Have removed pops out west and low temperatures tonight should be
warmer out west given invading high cloud layer.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 342 AM MST Sat Dec 16 2017

Sunday...As the upper trough sweeps across the Rockies on Sunday, an
upper closed low will gradually move east across southern AZ and NM.
Latest model runs are holding to a dry forecast for Sunday, so save
for a few isolated showers over the sw mts early Sunday morning,
kept things dry. The cold front the previous night will usher in
some frigid air, with max temps only expected to warm into the upper
30s to lower 40s.

Monday through Wednesday...As the upper low continues well south of
the state, look for generally light west to northwest flow aloft
across the region. This will produce dry and warmer conditions, with
highs in the 40s to lower 50s for the high valleys, and 50s to
around 60F for the plains.

Thursday and Friday...The next upper low pressure trough to affect
the region will drop south into the Great Basin early Thursday
morning. Models indicate that it will move southeast across Colorado
Thu into Fri, bringing another chance for some moisture for all of
the forecast area, as well as much colder temps. Look for highs in
the 30s both days, and lows in the single digits both nights.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 342 AM MST Sat Dec 16 2017

VFR conditions expected through today with IFR cigs spreading into
the crest of the Palmer Divide and southeast plains after 06z. Could
be some patchy freezing drizzle and fog from around KLHX eastward
with IFR cigs/vis...but for now think this will stay to the east of
KCOS and KPUB through 12z. KALS will remain VFR with light winds.




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