Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 060546
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1146 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS
BUILDING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING A LARGE CIRCULATION JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVING
ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
STATE WITH UPPER RIDGING SLIDING EAST AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. LATEST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE AND WITH ONLY FLAT CU
ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. HOWEVER...HAVE
KEPT MAINLY ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE CONTDVD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AS AN EMBEDDED SHORT ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN UTAH OVERNIGHT. TEMPS TO REMAIN FAIRLY MILD
OVERNIGHT WITH WARM AIR ALOFT IN PLACE AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALOFT AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE DESERT SW. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY...SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE CONTDVD.
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPS TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH HIGH REACHING THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S. THIS WILL
ALSO INCREASE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER...THE RECENT
PRECIPITATION HAS ALLOWED FOR ENOUGH GREEN TO OCCUR TO KEEP FUELS IN
A NON CRITICAL STATUS...AS REPORTED BY AREA LAND MANAGEMENT
AGENCIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

MAIN WX CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE IMPACT OF A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...NOW OVER THE CA COAST...AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. THOSE HOPING FOR A WET MAY COULD BE OUT
OF LUCK AS IT APPEARS THE PRECIP IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
BE SIGNIFICANT.

FIRST CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SVR WX ON SATURDAY.
CONSENSUS OF MODELS RIGHT NOW IS THAT THE FOCUS FOR SVR WILL BE
EAST AND NORTH OF OUR CWA. SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE KITR AREA
IN ERN CO...WHICH PLACES THE WARM SECTOR OVER NE CO AND KS. A
SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE SE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOW RH WILL LEAD TO FIRE
WX CONCERNS FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS. ONE AREA THAT WILL STILL
REQUIRE ATTENTION IS THE PALMER DVD. THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW
IN THE AFTERNOON...FROM ABOUT 18Z-22Z...WHEN THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SOME MODEST CAPE OVER THE AREA.
BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S WILL LIMIT ANY
SVR POTENTIAL.

MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FIRST WAVE WILL BE OVER
THE CONTDVD. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RATHER HIGH...BUT AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW MAY FALL OVER THE PEAKS BY SUNDAY. BETTER CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL COME ON SUNDAY. THE PRIMARY H5 LOW CENTER
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NE OVER SE WY...BUT A SECONDARY WEAKER
CIRCULATION WILL MOVE THROUGH SE CO. SO...LOOKS LIKE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA.
HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...OR IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR
THE PLAINS. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
PEAKS THROUGH MON MORNING.

WRLY FLOW ON MONDAY WILL AGAIN KEEP THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE CENTRAL MTS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
EARLY TUESDAY...A SECOND CUT OFF SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUE THROUGH WED. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...BUT SOME WEAK QG FORCING
AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS OVER
OUR AREA. HOWEVER...QPF CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER MODEST. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
STATE. BY MID MORNING SAT...S-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 19Z. OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...SCT TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE AGAIN ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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