000
FXUS65 KPUB 171727
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1127 AM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Temperatures appear to be the main near-short term meteorological
issue for today.

CWFA currently experiencing dry conditions in combination with above
seasonal mid-October early morning temperatures and generally low-
grade winds.

Latest computer simulations, real-time data, PV/Precipitable water
analysis and forecast model soundings continue to suggest that a dry
northwesterly to zonal upper flow pattern will continue over
southern Colorado through tonight. In addition, varying degrees of
eastern Colorado lee-side surface troughing will be noted over the
forecast district through tonight.

Above seasonal mid-October maximum and minimum temperatures are
anticipated over the forecast district during the next 24 hours with
maximum temperatures again nearing or exceeding 80F over many
eastern locations this afternoon. Finally, low-grade gradient winds
should continue over the majority of the forecast district through
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Wednesday-Thursday...Westerly flow aloft across the region Wednesday
becomes more southwest through the day Thursday, as Eastern Pacific
energy digging across the Pac NW Coast, starts to move into the
Great Basin. Above seasonal temperatures to continue across the area
on Wednesday, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s across the lower
elevations, with mainly 50s and 60s across the higher terrain, with
only slightly cooler temps expected on Thursday, with upslope flow
behind a weak and dry cold front moving across the Plains Wednesday
afternoon.

Thursday night-Saturday night...Latest models remain in decent
agreement with another quick hitting upper trough translating across
the Rockies for the Friday through Saturday timeframe. However,
current models are coming in weaker and further north with this
passing system, especially the GFS. The EC is a tad stronger and
deeper, and sends a stronger front across the area on Saturday
owning to better chances of precipitation across the Eastern
Mountains and immediate adjacent plains.  At any rate, a minor
embedded wave within the southwest flow will lead to slight chances
of precipitation across the ContDvd Thursday night, with better
chances for all of the higher terrain expected later Friday through
the day Saturday. Snow levels look to remain relatively high through
Friday afternoon and possibly lowering to between 8000-9000 ft
Friday night and Saturday. Breezy and warm conditions across the
eastern plains will lead to enhanced fire weather conditions on
Friday, with the coolest day of the weak expected to be Saturday.

Sunday-Monday...Moderate northwest flow aloft across the region will
lead to dry weather into early next week, with temperatures expected
to warm back to at and above seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Dry, westerly flow across the flight area next 24 hours.  Some
increase in high clouds tonight and Wednesday ahead of weak
upper disturbance but no low level clouds or precipitation.
VFR expected. This includes the KCOS, KPUB and KALS terminals.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW