000
FXUS65 KPUB 180510
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1110 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

...WARM DAY TOMORROW...

SOUTHEAST WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE DELAYED CLEARING OF LOW CLOUD
DECK EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ITS LOOKING PRETTY CLEAR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVE...WITH SOME MELTING AS TEMPS TOP OFF IN THE 50S TO
NR 60 DEGREES. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP
OFFSET SOME OF THE WARMING ALOFT...AND SHOULD ALLOW US TO COOL INTO
THE 30S BY FRI MORNING.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO WRN CO ON FRI. RIDGING AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP H7 TEMPS TO 8 OR 9 DEG C BY LATE
AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WARMING OVER THE PLAINS WITH A FEW
SPOTS IN THE LOWER ARKANSAS MAKING A RUN AT 80 DEGREES. HAVE CUT
BACK HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR MORE FROM AREAS THAT WILL STILL
MAINTAIN A RESIDUAL SNOWPACK...FOR EXAMPLE TELLER COUNTY AND WRN
PUEBLO COUNTY...THE WET MT VALLEY ETC. SNOW WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN
IN THESE AREAS BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO APPEAR OVER
THE SW MTS IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO THE ERN RANGES BY EVE.
BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT QPF OR EVEN COVERAGE...AS THE BULK
OF UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
WILL BUILD OVER THE MTS...SO WILL MENTION ISOLD TS POSSIBLE FOR THE
MT AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY LIMITED. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A STORM OR TWO WILL BE OVER THE SW MTS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE A SPECTACULAR SPRING DAY FOR MOST OF US. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

...UNSETTLED THROUGH MONDAY...INCREASING FIRE WEATHER AND DRYLINE
CONCERNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NEW TROUGH COMES THROUGH THURSDAY...

SATELLITE SHOWS NEXT DISTURBANCE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN COLORADO
CURRENTLY OFF OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA COASTS.  THIS
DISTURBANCE IS A MOIST...WARM CORE SYSTEM...CONTAINING AT LEAST SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.  IT IS QUITE A BIT WARMER AND MORE SUBTROPICAL
THAN THE LAST 2 SYSTEMS.  THUS...IT`S IMPACT WILL BE MORE LIKE A
LATE SPRING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAN AN EARLY SPRING SNOWSTORM.

STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND TOWARD COLORADO OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH IMPACTS STARTING TO REACH COLORADO IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FARTHER EAST.  SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG MUCH OF THE
DIVIDE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW CONFINED MAINLY TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET.  ALSO...LIFTED INDICES INDICATE A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST UNSETTLED DAY OF THE BUNCH WITH THE
BULK OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA AT THAT TIME.
SO...POPS WILL GO UP TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ACROSS THE REGION...
HIGHEST OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
AND THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE.  SO...ONCE AGAIN...ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET...AND THE THREAT OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE COLDEST PART OF THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS...
SNOW LEVELS COULD LOWER DOWN TO NEAR 7000 FEET.  AT THAT TIME...WE
COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO PLACES LIKE THE PALMER DIVIDE A RYE
AREAS.  STILL...WITH THE AIRMASS AND GROUND BEING SO WARM...NO
APPRECIABLE IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MEANDERS ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD...LEAVING PLENTY OF LINGERING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.  MORE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED
TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET.

DUE TO THE SHOWERY/MILD NATURE OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THAT ANY ADVISORY AND/OR WARNING PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED
WITH THIS EVENT AT THIS TIME.

WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO DRIER/WARMER WITH FIRE WEATHER AND
DRYLINE CONCERNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH COLORADO FROM THE WEST.  THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA...PUSHING
THE WEEKEND MOISTURE EAST AND DRYING/WARMING THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON THE FUELS STATUS.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER FOR SOME EARLY SEASON SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERNS.  MEANWHILE...BACK OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME HIGH BASED CELLS.  IT`S GETTING TO
BE THAT TIME OF YEAR AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.

ON THURSDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS
COLORADO...BRINGING SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AND MAINLY JUST DRY AND
WINDY WEATHER TO THE REST OF THE AREA.  BUT...EARLIER RUNS HAVE HAD
A DEEPER TROUGH COMING THROUGH.  REALLY...TOO EARLY TO TELL AT
THIS POINT. LW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS AT KALS AND KCOS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND COULD IMPACT KALS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT SHOWERS COULD
MOVE EAST OFF THE RAMPART AND WET MOUNTAIN RANGES FRIDAY EVENING
AN IMPACT KCOS AND KPUB...BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY