Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 310012
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
612 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 602 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST HUMIDITY VALUES BASED ON CURRENT OBS.  EXPECT POOR
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.  ALSO TOOK OUT THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH JUST SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING BASED
ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

...A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...

GENERALLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.  HOWEVER...THERE IS
SOME MOISTURE FILTERING INTO COLORADO FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY...RADAR DOES SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG AND NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...MAINLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 160 AT THIS TIME.  SO FAR...NO LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED BUT
THIS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE SHORTLY.  ALSO...THE ACTIVITY WILL
PROBABLY SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...MAYBE UP TO ABOUT HIGHWAY
50.  PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY STORMS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHTNING
AND WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 45 MPH.

ON TUESDAY...THINGS WILL PROBABLY HEAT UP JUST A BIT MORE.  SHOULD
SEE A LITTLE BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...EXTENDING
FARTHER NORTH TO PERHAPS THE CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE GREAT CHANCES THAT FAR NORTH...OR
REALLY ANYWHERE FOR THAT MATTER.  WINDOW FOR CONVECTION WOULD BEGIN
AFTER NOON...WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP A BIT MORE ON TUESDAY.  AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD GAIN ROUGHLY 3 TO 6 DEGREES ON TODAY`S VALUES...WHICH WOULD
PUT THEM ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS IN SOME CASES.  NORMAL...RECORD AND
FORECAST HIGHS FOR SPRINGS...PUEBLO AND ALAMOSA TOMORROW...

SPRINGS...NORMAL HIGH 56...RECORD HIGH 78/2012...FORECAST HIGH 76
PUEBLO....NORMAL HIGH 63...RECORD HIGH 86/1946...FORECAST HIGH 81
ALAMOSA...NORMAL HIGH 55...RECORD HIGH 76/2012...FORECAST HIGH 70

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL LONGER TERM ANTICIPATED WITH
TEMPERATURES...POPS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT TIMES
PRIMARY CONCERNS.

INITIALLY...GENERALLY ISOLATED PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS WARM UPPER ZONAL FLOW AND EASTERN COLORADO
SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IS NOTED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. SOME
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...INCLUDING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS COOLER CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO
INTERACTS WITH NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERN SURFACE UPSLOPE FLOW.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA...DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THEN A RETURN TO BASICALLY DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS IS
ANTICIPATED FROM SATURDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY AS ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW COMBINES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPING
EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING DURING THIS
TIME-FRAME...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM SATURDAY INTO
NEXT MONDAY.

FINALLY...WARMEST CONDITIONS DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE PROJECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
MONDAY...WHILE COOLEST CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

GENERALLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A BIT OF MOISTURE FILTERING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THAT COULD PRODUCE A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...TODAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH ANY STORMS WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND
WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 45 MPH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL ABOVE 10000 FEET.
ASIDE FROM LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS INCLUDES THE KCOS...KPUB
AND KALS TAF SITES.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY


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