Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 240536

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1036 PM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 241 PM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

Sprawling upper ridge across the srn/central Rockies today, leading
to a very warm Thanksgiving day over srn Colorado. Have already
broken the daily record max for Pueblo this afternoon, with readings
at Colorado Springs and Alamosa just below record levels. Overnight,
ridge flattens as energy moves through the nrn Rockies, leading to a
deepening lee surface trough and gusty winds over ern mountain
slopes by early Fri morning. Given warm mid-levels and downslope
flow, expect rather mild overnight lows many locations. On Friday,
gusty west winds early will gradually become more northerly during
the afternoon as cold front drops south through the region. Could
see brief window of near critical fire weather conditions along the
I-25 corridor and near the NM border before front arrives, though
duration looks too short for a highlight as RH will creep up
following the fropa. Max temps at many locations will be just as
warm as Thu, though records for 11/24 are rather warm and look out
of reach at this point.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 241 PM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

Models in better agreement in the extended period, however, there
are still timing and storm track differences. Ensembles have high
spreads, so confidence in any one model continues to be lacking
with storm evolution and track.

Friday night through Monday...high pressure is forecast to move
across Colorado through the weekend with an approaching upper
trough by late Monday. A disturbance passing well to the north
will likely produce an isolated snow shower or two over the
Central Mountains Friday evening before dissipating overnight has
the high pressure takes hold. Over the Plains, a weak cold front
will pass south with cooler air expected on Saturday. Expect
afternoon highs in the lower 60s across the Plains Saturday. By
Sunday, slightly better mixing is expected which should help us
warm up back into the lower 70s. No precipitation is forecast
Saturday or Sunday across Southern Colorado.

By Monday, flow aloft will transition southwesterly as an upper
trough approaches. Widespread strong winds are forecast across the
region by the afternoon hours. Low humidity values will combine
with the winds to produce critical fire weather conditions for
Monday across the region. In addition, mixing should allow for
another warm day, with near record highs across the region.
Current forecast numbers are in the mid to upper 70s, but wouldn`t
be surprised if we see some lower 80s Monday afternoon. Upper
level energy embedded in the southwest flow will lead to showers
developing along the Continental Divide Monday afternoon.

Monday night through Wednesday...models in much better agreement
with the upper trough to the west, becoming an upper low and
moving across Colorado early to mid week. The GFS is quickest with
the upper low moving across Colorado into Oklahoma Monday night
into Tuesday, with dry conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday.
The ECMWF is slower, bringing the upper system across Colorado
Tuesday into Wednesday, finally clearing Colorado by Wednesday
evening. Both solutions drop a strong cold front across the area,
along with an area of snowfall behind the front, clearing from
north to south. Whether it happens Tuesday, or Tuesday night will
depend on which solution verifies. Both models have it dry
Wednesday night into Thursday.  Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1032 PM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3
taf sites; KPUB, KALS and KCOS.

Winds will generally be light tonight into late tomorrow morning.
Some gusty west winds may occur at KPUB tonight as gap flow
increases. Tomorrow, a cold front will cross the region during the
early to mid afternoon time period and this will cause the winds
to go to the west to northwest and become gusty at times.




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