Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 260003
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
603 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 PM MDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Currently...A line of thunderstorms is moving across Pueblo county with
storms producing periods of heavy rainfall and hail up to nickle
size in diameter. These storms are expected to slowly move to the
SE over the next few hours, with heavy rainfall becoming the
primary threat.

Grids have been updated to reflect higher pops ahead of the line
of the storms, with lesser values across the western San Juan
mountains, where storm activity has been minimal over the last few
hours. Lukinbeal

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM MDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Convection rather slow to get going today as some drier mid
level air has pushed across the Continental divide, and forcing
aloft remains rather weak. Still plenty of CAPE (1500-2500 J/KG)
along and east of the mountains, as dewpoints have held in the 50s
east of I-25 with 60s close to the KS border, though soundings
suggest enough CINH to keep things suppressed so far. For the rest
of the afternoon into the evening, HRRR insists convection will
increase and spread across the plains, perhaps focusing on outflow
boundary dropping south through El Paso County, which is firing some
weak convection south of the Palmer Divide as of 21z. Will keep
isolated to scattered convection going through mid-evening most
locations, though confidence about convection on the plains is
rather low. Models have been overdone with nighttime convection the
past few nights, and suspect that is the case again tonight, so will
end pops over most zones by midnight, keeping some isolated tsra
over southern mountain ranges through the night, as moisture is
deepest near the NM border.

On Tuesday, moisture decreases somewhat over the mountains and I-25
corridor, suggesting another relatively down day for convection once
again. Still tough to rule at isolated to low end scattered storms
just about anywhere, though weak steering currents suggest activity
may stay close to the higher terrain, with little convection east of
I-25.  Severe threat again looks limited by very weak winds aloft,
though some localized strong winds may be possible as T/Td spreads
increase slightly. Max temps should stay little changed, with
readings around or slightly above seasonal averages.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM MDT Mon Jul 25 2016

A very similar weather pattern is expected through the extended
period, with a pattern shift by the weekend. In general, look for
above normal temps and a daily shot of isolated to scattered
convection over the mts, and isolated activity over the plains.

Tuesday night through Friday...The upper ridge of high pressure will
be located over the western US through the work week, with very
little movement of the ridge axis over the Great Basin. after a
fairly active Tue eve, Wed looks to be the driest day with just
isolated storm activity forecast. Models indicate that an upper
disturbance will drop down and brush eastern Colorado Wed night,
perhaps motivating isolated storms to linger along the KS/CO border
overnight. Temps Fri will be slightly cooler with convective
activity favoring the higher terrain later in the day.

Saturday through Monday...The upper ridge starts to edge to the east
on Saturday, as an upper trough gathers strength over British
Columbia and the Pacific NW. Shower and storm activity on Sat is
somewhat questionable, but stuck with the isolated to scattered
aftn and eve pops for much of the area that the extended procedure
produced. However, by Sunday the ridge axis will have moved east
of the state, and access to monsoon moisture for the western half
of the state will be open once again, which will last into the
next work week. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 316 PM MDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Will continue VCTS at all terminals from late afternoon into the
evening, as HRRR insists tsra will develop along/east of the
mountains after 21z, and latest radar loop does show a slow increase
in convection just north of KCOS since 20z. Will end tsra threat at
the terminals 02z-03z, with VFR conditions overnight. Could see some
weak convection linger through much of the night over the mountains,
especially across the San Juans and La Garitas. Perhaps a slight
decrease in tsra chances at all terminals Tue afternoon, though
still expect isolated mountain storms to drift toward lower
elevations late in the day, and may need a vcts mention at least at
KCOS and KALS after 21z.


&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Lukinbeal/LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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