Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 301030
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
430 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

CURRENTLY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION WAS
KEEPING CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
SFC OBS INDICATING A NORTHERLY SHIFT IN WINDS FOR SITES ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE PALMER DVD. TEMPS HAVE COOLED INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S
FOR THE PLAINS...20S AND 30S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS COLORADO
TODAY...CONTINUING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AM WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS IN THE 60S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

...SNOWFALL FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
WINDY ELSEWHERE...

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL START TO INCREASE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROF
ENTERING THE WEST COAST. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS DRY ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO BACK INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

CHANGES START TO COME IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CA WEAKENS AND EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE TROF MOVING INLAND ACROSS CA/NV/OR AND WA. INCREASING
MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL START TO SPREAD SHOWERS
INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS THE FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY WITHIN THE WESTERN U.S. TROF
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. INITIALLY MOISTURE
IS NOT ALL THAT DEEP SO ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR ALL AREAS ON
SATURDAY...BUT BOTH NAM AND GFS KEEP DEW POINTS ON THE HIGH SIDE
SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
MET. MEANWHILE...LAPSE RATES LOOK STEEP ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION
OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 10-11KFT.

BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW APPEARS TO COME IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ENERGY DIGGING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF
THE WESTERN U.S. TROF KEEPS STRONG SOUTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW WITH
EMBEDDED MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
NAM12 AND GFS LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...WHILE
ECMWF IS FARTHER WEST AND STRONGER WITH THE SECONDARY DEVELOPING
TROF/CLOSED LOW ACROSS NV. FORECAST FAVORS THE NAM12 AND GFS SOLNS FOR
NOW DUE TO BETTER CONSENSUS. AS THE UPPER JET TRANSLATES IN SAT
NIGHT...SNOW REALLY CRANKS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS...AND WINDS AT THE PASS AND PEAK LEVELS COULD BE QUITE
STRONG. NAM12 AND GFS SUGGEST ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR
THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS IT STANDS
NOW...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES COULD FALL WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS WILL SEE MAINLY WIND FROM THIS EVENT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS ON SUNDAY COULD CONCEPTUALLY APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...THOUGH FOR
NOW THEY APPEAR TO COME UP JUST SHY OF THE REQUIRED 15 PERCENT OR
LOWER FOR A RED FLAG. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

UPPER TROF TRAILS ACROSS CO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SENDING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. WHILE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER TROF
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND OPEN...ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
EASTERN AZ/WESTERN NM MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING IT SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN AZ/NM BY 00Z TUES. EITHER WAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. WITH BRUNT OF THE FORCING
PASSING TO THE SOUTH...PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA APPEARS
LIGHT...AND SEEMS DRIVEN MORE BY SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON. OF COURSE...MODELS ARE STILL VARYING RUN TO RUN WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...SO SUSPECT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME FORECAST CHANGES UNTIL THE SYSTEM GETS RESOLVED BETTER.
HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT WE WILL SEE A GOOD
COOL DOWN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND LIKELY OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD
HARD FREEZE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PLAINS EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE



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