Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 301631
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1031 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FORTHCOMING. A TRAILING UPPER
DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER COLORADO TODAY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO PRODUCE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PARK AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES LOOK LIKE THEY
WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS. THE HRRR MODEL ALSO DEVELOPS A
BAND OF SHOWERS OVER PUEBLO COUNTY AFTER 01Z...BUT THE RAP KEEPS
THE PLAINS DRY. WILL FAVOR THE RAP SOLUTION...SINCE IT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF DOWNSLOPE SUBSIDENCE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE FOOTHILLS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING AS THE LAST VORT MAX IN THE UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

WFO BOU WILL BE PROVIDING FULL SERVICE BACKUP FOR US TODAY
STARTING AT APPROXIMATELY 7 AM MDT WHILE WFO PUEBLO UNDERGOES
A MAJOR COMPUTER UPGRADE. WFO PUB SHOULD BE BACK IN CONTROL
BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...

SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY HAS BROUGHT A SEASONAL AIR MASS
TO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  TODAY WILL BE A SEASONAL FALL DAY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND
MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ABOVE ROUGHLY 10000 FEET TODAY WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR SO POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL AND ABOVE.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS ONTO THE
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE EVENING.  BUT THIS WOULD
REALLY BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.  IN GENERAL...MOSTLY
SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.

CURRENT FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY CONTINUES TO LOOK
GOOD FOR THIS MORNING.  THE VALLEY HAS HAD SOME MOISTURE OVER THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS AND TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.  DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR THE DEWPOINTS BY MORNING...WHICH
WOULD MEAN LOWS NEAR FREEZING...NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS...AND THUS
A FROST.  THE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER FROST TONIGHT...SO WILL
GO AHEAD AND HOIST ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR THEN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WITH LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREADS AND GOOD OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EAST
INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREAT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH 30 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE OUT NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. MODELS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE PLAINS. FOR NOW FOLLOWED THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE NAM IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS STORM TRACK AND
KEEPS SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO AROUND 10 KFT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 60S EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS WILL BE COOL...WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...AND 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED AND STATIONARY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
WARM...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SKIES
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. KALS COULD SEE SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER AREAS WILL SEE LESS WIND.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS/WFO BOULDER
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...DANKERS/WFO BOULDER



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