Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 312105
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
305 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON WAS PRODUCING S-SE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...KEEPING
TEMPS RATHER COOL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
SLOPES AND BACK TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...W-SW FLOW WAS
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF DIGGING WESTERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH...LEADING TO SOME TEMPS APPROACHING 60F OVER MOST VALLEYS AND
FAVORED EAST SLOPES. OVERNIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES EAST INTO
THE PLAINS AS WESTERN TROUGH TURNS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LEAD SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF MOISTURE EJECTING FROM THE
TROUGH PUSH INTO SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH AT LEAST
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM THE SAN
JUANS TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY EARLY SAT MORNING. PRECIP
AMOUNTS WON`T BE TERRIBLY HEAVY...THOUGH HIGHER PEAKS IN THE SAN
JUANS DOWN TO WOLF CREEK PASS COULD PICK UP A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND PLAINS...SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVERNIGHT...WITH
ACCOMPANYING DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING MINS MILD MANY AREAS AS WINDS
NEVER COMPLETELY DECOUPLE.

ON SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE STATE WITH WEAK
LIFT DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY...THOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME CONVECTION
GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES GET
STEEP ENOUGH FOR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TSRA...MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES...AND GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KNOT RANGE WILL
BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH 30-40 KNOTS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP UPWARD WITH INCREASED MIXING...AND SOME
MID TO UPPER 70S LOOK LIKELY OVER THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS FORECAST TO SPLIT AS IT APPROACHES THE
ROCKIES...WITH A NORTHERN LOW OVER IDAHO AND MONTANA...AND AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
COLORADO. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE FAVORED AREA LOOKS TO THE BE SAN JUAN
RANGE WHERE SOUTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL HELP PRODUCE HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWFALL. SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD ABOVE 9 KFT. MIXING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH ANOTHER MILD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...TO WARMING
TEMPERATURES...MIXING WILL LEAD TO STRONG SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. WHEN COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT...WE
WILL SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
SHOULD BE DONE WITH EXTREME CAUTION.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER MONTANA WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST CUTS OFF OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS. THIS LEAVES
SOUTHERN COLORADO BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS...WITH MOUNTAINS
CONTINUING TO SEE PERIODS OF SNOW. AS FOR THE PLAINS...MODELS
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND COOLER ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. MODELS
HIGHLY VARIABLE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE PLAINS. THE NAM
IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FRONT...AND DEVELOPS WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF BRINGS A QUICK SHOT TO THE
REGION...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE PLAINS DRY. FOR NOW HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON
RIDGE DUE TO THE LACK OF UPSLOPE FLOW WITH THE FRONT. EXPECT ALL
ACTIVITY TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH 50S AND 60S FOR HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS...WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES AMPLIFIED
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL PUT THE ROCKIES UNDER BROAD DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR THE PLAINS.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCURATION AT TIMES OVER THE SAN
JUANS BY 06Z...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. MOUNTAINS
ALONG THE DIVIDE WILL CONTINUE TO BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY...THOUGH PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY
AFTERNOON. S-SW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ALL AREAS BY SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS OVER THE PLAINS AND 30-40
KNOTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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