Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 192206
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
206 PM PST Sun Nov 19 2017


.SYNOPSIS...

A warm and weak system may bring light rain and very high elevation
snow to portions of northeast California and northern Nevada Monday
and Monday night. Increasingly mild temperatures are expected
tonight through the middle of the week as the storm track is
deflected north into the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Strong inversions in place for the valleys will keep generally light
winds and seasonable afternoon temperatures as high pressure
strengthens aloft. Cloud cover will increase ahead of the weak storm
that will brush northeastern California and far northwest Nevada for
Monday and Monday night. Clouds overnight will help to moderate the
lows tonight, so temperatures early Monday will be more mild than
the past couple of mornings.

Winds will pick up a bit on Monday, which will allow for some mixing
of the lower valleys. This should help to mediate any air quality
concerns that typically result from these strong inversions, like we
have seen the past couple of mornings. Weak warm air advection
precipitation will accompany this storm for Monday and Monday night
with light rain possible for the northern Sierra, northeast
California, and Nevada generally north of a Pyramid Lake to Lovelock
line. Snow levels will be around 9,500 to 10,000 feet so impacts
from the light precipitation will be minimal.

Ridge strengthens over the west on Tuesday, which will promptly
deflect most of the moisture and storm track into the Pacific
Northwest. Temperatures will warm up through the week into the upper
50s to upper 60s for valleys. Some guidance is hinting at
temperatures into the 70s, but our thinking is that inversions will
set up again by midweek, which will make it difficult to properly
mix and reach those temperatures. If we did, they would certainly be
records for this time of year!

Slight chances for precipitation will continue through much of the
week right along the Oregon border, but if the ridge shifts eastward
whatsoever then showers could drop farther south. Simulations are
hinting at the ridge breaking down as we go into the weekend, but
the timing is still uncertain. As disturbances/storms continue to
impact the ridge through the week it may weaken the ridge and allow
the storm track to finally drop southward into California and
Nevada. Until that time, temperatures will remain mild, along with
very high snow levels and low end chances for significant
precipitation.
-Edan

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR most areas into Monday morning except for the small possibility
of FZFG around KTRK and the Sierra Valley through 18z Monday.
Primarily VFR Monday except for some MVFR CIGS possible near the
Oregon Border. A quiet week again with only light mtn wave activity
and VFR conditions as the storm track remains north.

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno


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