Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 131002

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
302 AM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Low pressure along the central California coast along with above
normal moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. The first cold front of the Fall season will bring
gusty winds Thursday along with another chance for showers or
storms. The cold front will bring much cooler temperatures
Thursday and Friday, with a modest warm up for the weekend.

The upper low responsible for the showers and thunderstorms over the
past few days will FINALLY begin to eject eastward across southern
California. Above average moisture along with the upper level
instability associated with the low will produce another round of
showers and thunderstorms. Conditions appear to be similar to the
environment from Tuesday afternoon, so plan for frequent
lightning, locally heavy rains, gusty winds, and some small hail
with any storms that develop. We cannot rule out the possibility
of a few stronger, more severe storms this evening, but just be
sure to have a plan for today. If you plan on biking or walking to
work, you may want a backup plan for avoiding thunderstorms on
your commute home today. Areas of rain will likely persist into
the late evening after thunderstorms weaken tonight.

Fall will be making its presence known by later this week as a cold
front pushes through the region on Thursday. This front will bring
westerly winds with peak gusts 25-35 mph in valleys and 35-50 mph
along ridges. Thankfully relative humidity values across much of the
region will be above the 15 percent threshold, so fire weather
concerns generally won`t be an issue with the winds. Although a few
hours of red flag conditions in Mineral County may be possible
Thursday afternoon. Although we expect mostly showers north of
Interstate 80 with the cold frontal passage, there will still be a small
chance for thunderstorms as well. Otherwise, Thursday and Friday
will be breezy with much cooler temperatures. -Edan

.LONG TERM...Saturday into next week...
Are you ready for winter in the mountains? OK, it won`t be quite
that bad as heavy snow isn`t expected, but the temperatures will
feel winter-like early next week. Models and their respective
ensembles are continuing to show a cold and deep trough for early
next week. Until then, the weekend looks relatively mild with
warming temperatures Saturday into Sunday. They will still be a
little below average with dry conditions.

Monday though, the big trough begins to move in, and the EC and GFS
are continuing to trend further south and colder. Monday looks to be
the bigger wind day with gusts perhaps 40-50 mph in the valleys and
stronger on the ridges. Then the cold front moves through with much
below average temperatures, about 15-20 degrees or so if current
models are in the ballpark. That would put valley temps in the 60s
and near 50 in the Sierra Valleys with many Sierra ridges
remaining in the 30s Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will be
quite chilly so many outlying valleys in Western Nevada could see
a frost if not freeze.

As far as precip, the front overall is rather dry, typical for
September this far south. Most of the moisture resides behind the
front with showers most likely north of Highway 50. Any amounts
would be light, generally up to a quarter inch which could fall as
snow above 7000-7500 feet. One other interesting aspect is that the
lake effect machine could get going Tuesday night. Anomalously warm
lake temperatures will support it provided there is little wind
shear which is questionable at this time. Wallmann


Showers continue to diminish over much of the area, but isolated
thunderstorms will continue near KHTH for through 12Z. Generally VFR
conditions thru 21Z before convection fires once again. Area
terminals have a 30-40% chance of seeing a direct hit, but all
terminals will be affected in some way. High confidence remains in
the thunderstorm forecast.

Sierra/Sierra Front terminals will have the best chances from 22-03Z
with areas to the east (KNFL/KLOL) likely to be delayed until 00-
06Z. Gusty winds to 35 kts, heavy rain and small hail will be the
primary threats with these storms.

Thursday we will see a cold front approach with showers and a few
thunderstorms ahead of the front. They are not expected to be as
widespread, however with KTVL/KRNO/KCXP/KTRK possibly missing out
due to local effects. Winds will be gusty during the day from the
southwest up to 30 kts and stronger over ridges. Expect some light
to moderate mtn wave turbulence at times. Wallmann

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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