Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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228
FXUS65 KREV 131115
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
315 AM PST Tue Feb 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Residual light snow showers will produce slick travel conditions
for parts of Mono County this morning. Another weak weather system
could bring light showers Wednesday and Wednesday night. Near or
slightly below average temperatures through Thursday will warm for
the weekend. A stronger storm may bring snow Sunday and Monday,
with much colder temperatures next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Some very light snow showers are expected early this morning in
the eastern Sierra due to upslope flow around a trough axis
extending from Monterey to Bishop, CA. CALTRANS road information
indicates chain requirements south of Bridgeport to near Deadman
Summit, with cameras showing snow-covered roads in Lee Vining.
Farther north into the Lake Tahoe area, cameras show wet or slushy
roads. If driving in the Sierra this morning, be sure to check
for the latest travel restrictions.

Elsewhere around northeast CA and western NV today, dry conditions
and mostly sunny skies are expected, with afternoon temperatures
topping out in the 40s (slightly below average).

Wednesday and Wednesday night, another upper low is projected to
drop southeast from the Pacific Northwest into the central and
eastern Great Basin. Winds will increase during the afternoon,
with gusts to around 30 mph, mainly from I-80 northward. The best
moisture and dynamics are projected to remain farther north and
east compared to this morning`s system, resulting in the best
chances for light snow accumulations (up to 1") limited to areas
near the Oregon border and into the NV Basin and Range north and
east of Lovelock. Elsewhere, we can`t rule out a few very light
non-accumulating snow showers Wednesday night into early Thursday
as this trough passes through, followed by dry and cool conditions
(highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s) for the remainder of Thursday.
-Snyder/MJD

.LONG TERM....LONG TERM...Friday onward...

No major changes to the forecast thinking going into the weekend and
following week. Confidence is increasing in a colder pattern setting
up across the West for the start of next week as the overall
pattern allows the eastern Pacific ridge to retrograde and several
waves to drop into the region from the north. The question remains
in the exact placement of these waves and how much moisture each
will bring; however, at this point we`ll take what we can get.

The weekend will start warm and dry with high temperatures likely
reaching 8-12 degrees above normal. Winds will begin to increase
Saturday and especially Sunday ahead of the initial cold front which
will bring the start of the pattern change. As mentioned, much
colder air is slated to move into the region, but there are
differences in just how cold we`ll get and if the coldest air will
arrive early in the week or the middle of the week. Either way, with
700 temps progged to hover around -15C to -18C, we could easily see
temperatures 15 or more degrees below normal at some point next
week.

While we`ll see chances for snow with each wave that drops in the
main trough across the West, there are no big Pacific moisture
taps entraining in these storms. Most of these waves are able to
pick up some moisture in the Gulf of Alaska as they ride over the
eastern Pacific ridge, but the exact placement will determine how
much precipitation the eastern Sierra and western Nevada will get.
-Dawn

&&

.AVIATION...

A few lingering snow showers early this morning around KTVL and
through portions of Mono County will rapidly clear between 14-18z.
Skies are beginning to clear, but upslope flow may keep clouds
banked up along the eastern Sierra foothills and over the mountains
leading to terrain obscuration. Additional clearing is likely
through the day.

Gusty northeast winds of 60-70 kts will continue along the Sierra
crest with turbulence possible along the Sierra and downwind to
western slopes. Winds will begin to decrease by this afternoon and
will turn westerly going into Wednesday morning. Gusty west winds
can be expected surface and aloft on Wednesday as another system
moves through the region.

This system has the potential to bring additional snow to the region
Wednesday and Wednesday night, leading to periods of reduced
ceilings and visibility. Snow accumulations will be light with the
best chances near the Oregon border into central and eastern Nevada.
-Dawn

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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