Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 141116
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
316 AM PST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Dry conditions and above average temperatures will continue through
Monday with high pressure over northeast California and western
Nevada. Winds increase Monday ahead of a modest, fast-moving system
for Monday night and Tuesday. A stronger, colder system will bring
gusty winds, snow, and rain Thursday into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Mild and dry weather will continue through Monday with high pressure
across the region. Temperatures will be well above average along
with relatively light winds. Expect high temperatures in the mid to
upper 50s across western Nevada and Sierra valleys. Troughing off
the west coast will weaken high pressure and allow for the first in
a series of storms to impact the region early Tuesday morning.

Upper level winds will increase late Monday into Tuesday ahead of
this first storm with breezy winds across the valley locations buy
Tuesday afternoon. Precipitation will begin to push into the Sierra
late Monday evening and will spread through Tuesday morning with the
fast-moving cold front. Precipitation amounts remain meager with
this storm, but we would anticipate impacts to driving conditions in
the Sierra, especially across the Sierra passes. A few inches of
snowfall will be possible through Tuesday morning, so if you have
travel or commute plans be sure to monitor the forecast and check
road conditions before you head out.

This initial storm quickly pushes out of the Sierra and western
Nevada, but opens the storm door for the rest of the week. Wednesday
will be a short break in between storms, along with a brief warmup
and breezy conditions. Winds will increase significantly late
Wednesday night into early Thursday morning ahead of the next
colder, stronger storm as a strong Pacific jet pushes into far
northern CA. Sierra ridge gusts will easily reach 100+ mph with
surface winds expected to be gusty as well during the height of the
storm on Thursday. -Edan


.LONG TERM...Thursday and beyond...

Bottom line up front...forecaster confidence is increasing for
Thursday-Friday winter impacts to the region. If you have travel
plans over the Sierra Thursday-Friday, you should be paying close
attention to the forecast as winter conditions are looking more
and more likely.

Winter will finally make an appearance to the region by the end
of the week and even into next week as well. A much welcomed
Sierra snow will be on tap, as a colder, stronger storm is set to
move into the region. This will bring the first significant
snowfall to the Sierra that we`ve seen in a while (since
November). This still looks like a solid January storm by Sierra
standards. Latest models continue to show a weak to moderate
Atmospheric River (AR) moving into the Sierra, combining with much
colder temperatures behind the cold front. We have continued to
trend higher QPF and snowfall amounts in the Sierra, with snowfall
amounts of over a foot possible in the High Sierra above 7000
feet and several inches of snow expected down to 5500 feet. Colder
air will allow for higher snow ratios (and slightly more snow
amounts) Thursday evening into Friday behind the front. Snow
levels will fall to valley floors by Friday morning, with light
snow amounts possible for Reno-Sparks- Carson City for the Friday
morning commute.

Ridge winds will remain strong Thursday into Friday, associated
with a strong jet/cold front. Wind gusts over 50 mph may be
possible during this time with ridge winds in the Sierra over 100
mph. Powdery snow and gusty winds may also produce blowing snow
and low visibilities for the Sierra passes.

Cold and brisk conditions are expected Friday, with temperatures
near normal for this time of year. Breezy winds will make it feel
even colder, along with scattered clouds and snow showers around
the region due to instability under the low. There could also be
lake effect snow bands off of Tahoe and Pyramid Friday, so we will
need to keep an eye on that as well.

More excellent news for the Sierra snowpack...the storm door
should remain open through next weekend and into next week as well
as the longwave pattern remains favorable for colder storm
systems to move into the west coast. Colder temperatures should
remain through the second half of January with above average
chances for precipitation, including beneficial Sierra snow. -Hoon

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions can be expected through Monday as a ridge of high
pressure sets up right over the region. Light winds and clear
skies with the exception of some scattered, high cirrus clouds
will be the result. Due to the clear skies and calm winds
overnight, early morning fog may be a possibility on Sunday in the
Martis Valley and near KTRK.

The ridge will begin to break down late Monday as a trough from
the west makes its way towards the region. As a result, cloud
cover will increase along with southwesterly wind gusts in the
15-20 kt range.

Another, stronger system is on track for Thursday of this
upcoming week. Please see the long term section for additional
details. -LaGuardia/Hoon

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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