Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 151026
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
226 AM PST Thu Feb 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold start this morning with a few light snow showers possible
in Mono County. Temperatures will warm the next few days with dry
conditions expected through Saturday. Another cold front will
move through the region Sunday night bringing a chance for snow
showers and much colder temperatures for the start of next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

A few bands of light snow showers moving through the region this
morning are dissipating as frontal forcing weakens and moves
eastward. Enough snow to cover the road was observed at Bogard
rest area in NE California with brief snow showers observed here
at the office in Reno around 1 AM. No additional snow
accumulations are expected this morning, though a few snow
showers could continue in Mono/Mineral counties through mid-
morning as the weakening front continues southward.

Behind the front, cool northerly flow will keep temperatures
below average today with daytime high temperatures increasing each
day through Saturday. By Saturday temperatures will be back
around 60 in the lower valleys and in the mid 50s for the Sierra.
-Zach


.LONG TERM...Sunday onward...

The main message remains unchanged: Expect significantly colder
temperatures for the start of next week with gusty winds Sunday into
Monday due to a strong cold front. There are chances for snow Sunday
evening into Monday, but the inland trajectory of this system will
limit liquid amounts. Just keep in mind that the Monday morning
commute may be slow due to snow.

As the day shift noted, deterministic forecast models continue to
show improved agreement in the timing and strength of the front
Sunday and Sunday night. The forcing along the front will help to
overcome the limited moisture and allow for snow showers Sunday
evening into Monday. QPF values have been slowly trending upward,
which makes sense given the strength of the front. However, to
keep things in context, this is not a major winter storm in terms
of snow by any stretch of the imagination. The current qpf
forecast is in line with the latest guidance which still only
yields a few hundredths up to a few tenths of an inch of liquid
equivalent.

Expect southwest winds to begin to increase Sunday with valley gusts
in the 35 to 45 mph range by Sunday afternoon and evening. Post-
frontal northwest winds will continue on Monday with gusts of 20-30
mph making it feel that much colder. There is still some ensemble
spread in the southern extent of the coldest air, but with 700 mb
temperatures in the -15C to -18C range, expect that high
temperatures will easily be 15 to 20 degree below normal. Looking at
KREV sounding climatology, 700 mb temps this cold correspond to
around the lowest 5% of temperatures for this time of the year.

Beyond this initial front, temperatures will moderate slightly, but
will remain below normal for the week with a trough over the west.
It looks likely that additional shortwaves will drop into the main
trough, bringing renewed chances for snow showers and reinforcing
shots of cold air from late in the week into the following weekend.
-Dawn

&&

.AVIATION...

Very light snow showers are rapidly coming to an end early this
morning as the shortwave elongates and loses forcing across the
region. Some lower ceilings may bring terrain obscuration through
18z this morning. Outside of slight chances for very light snow
showers in Mono/Mineral Counties through 18z, no additional
showers are anticipated today with dry weather and generally VFR
conditions the remainder of the week.

Gusty northeast winds across ridgelines early this morning will
subside by this afternoon with light winds surface and aloft through
Saturday. A more significant storm is taking shape for Sunday into
Monday, please see the long term section for additional details.
-Dawn


&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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