Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 262358
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
758 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through from west to east tonight. A trailing
surface trough crosses on Wednesday. High pressure takes control
of our weather Wednesday night through Friday, before a low
pressure lifts a warm front towards the area early Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
730 PM EDT Update...
Synoptic gusts are beginning to diminish and should continue to
diminish now that the sun has set, but a line of showers along
the cold front are currently moving east across the area. The
showers could pull down brief gusts to 45 to 50 mph and may need
to continue to issue Special Weather Statements downstream
before the line likely weakens over the eastern third of the CWA
later this evening. Despite very low instability and no
lightning, there is enough wind shear to warrant a threat for
rotation embedded in the line of showers so the tornado threat
remains low, but not zero. Gusts should diminish quickly behind
the cold front tonight. No changes were needed with this update.

Previous Discussion...

A cold front will sweep through from west
to east this evening into tonight, followed by a trailing
surface trough on Wednesday. High pressure finally noses in
Wednesday night.

A 35 to 45 knot low-level jet persists through this evening
ahead of the cold front, contributing to continued gusty winds.
Wind gusts have mainly diminished to 30 to 40 MPH across the
area, though locations along and west of I-71 along with near
the eastern lakeshore are still seeing occasional gusts to 45
MPH...due to somewhat steeper low-level lapse rates out west and
due to downsloping along the lakeshore. A Special Wx Statement
for most of the area continues to cover the potential for
localized gusts to near advisory-criteria through 6 PM.

A slug of stratiform rain will lift across the eastern half or
so of our area through the early evening...mainly east of a
Mount Gilead to Cleveland line, with the steadiest rain likely
east of a Millersburg to Painesville line. As this rain exits, a
line of showers and thunder will sweep in from the west along
the cold front. Expect this activity to begin pushing into the
I-75 corridor around 6 PM, with perhaps a few showers developing
a bit earlier ahead of the frontal line of precipitation.

Some increase in organization and intensity of the activity
currently ongoing from central lower MI into eastern IN is
likely through 7 PM. This is due to increased jet support in
the left-exit quadrant of a strong jet streak lifting out of
the mid Mississippi Valley and a period of strong low-level
frontogenesis along the front itself. Weak, uncapped instability
and marginally steep low- level lapse rates of 6-7C/km, along
with mean cloud layer flow of 45-50 knots, supports potential
for strong to perhaps locally severe wind gusts across Northwest
OH with any more organized line segments that are able to surge
or bow to the east-northeast. Given this, the Marginal Risk for
severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) persists
west of roughly a Sandusky to Marion line, with strong straight-
line wind gusts the primary hazard. Small hail may also
accompany a few of the stronger convective cores. The tornado
risk is not truly zero given the strong low-level flow, though
weak instability and a linear storm mode will significantly
limit that potential to the point where the latest SPC severe
weather outlook does not include any tornado probabilities. By 9
or 10 PM, as any line reaches the Sandusky to Marion area,
decreasing low-level lapse rates and any instability getting
used up should lead to any severe risk ending...though a gusty
line of showers may persist farther east with the front.

It will remain mild this evening ahead of the front, cooling
into the upper 30s to mid 40s by early Wednesday behind it.
Highs Wednesday won`t recover much with highs expected to range
from the mid 40s to low 50s. It will be partly sunny to mostly
cloudy on Wednesday and a few light rain showers may accompany
a secondary surface trough axis crossing the area. Gradual
clearing Wednesday night as high pressure noses in, with lows
expected to fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A large scale upper-level trough moves into the Great Lakes region
on Thursday with an embedded shortwave trough and associated PVA
moving across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Previously
the expectation was to be dry slotted as the main parent low
departed well to the north but a lot of the latest model guidance
include some increased 850mb moisture and thus some more cloudiness.
Only increased to partly cloudy but could see a good chunk of mostly
cloudy conditions. Some clouds could continue into Friday but less
likely as high pressure builds in. Temperatures are largely
expected to be near normal during the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper-level shortwave and associated weak surface low moves
across the southern Great Lakes on Saturday, allowing for periods of
rain Saturday through Saturday evening. Sunday will be the only
precipitation-free period before another low pressure system
develops in the central CONUS and lifts northeast to the Great Lakes
and/or Ohio Valley regions Monday night and Tuesday. Precipitation
chances will begin and increase Sunday night and Monday with the
warm front, and then the highest precipitation chances (of 70-90%)
will be Monday afternoon through Monday night when the low pressure
centers moves across the area. Rain is likely to linger into Tuesday
as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Widespread light showers are beginning to exit to the east, but
a line of showers along a cold front will continue to track east
across the local area tonight. Ceilings may briefly lift to VFR
between rounds of precip, but the line of showers will likely
usher MVFR ceilings and very brief MVFR/IFR visibilities in rain
into the region. The showers will be very progressive and any
reduced visibilities shouldn`t last longer than 30-60 minutes
at any location at the very most. With that being said,
widespread MVFR ceilings will likely develop behind the front
and persist through at least late Wednesday morning or early
afternoon before lifting/scattering to VFR by mid afternoon.

Winds are beginning to diminish, but still expect southerly
winds of 10 to 20 knots with scattered gusts to 20 to 25 knots
ahead of the front. The showers along the front may pull down
locally stronger but brief gusts to 35 to 40 knots. Anticipate
winds to shift to the southwest and quickly diminish further
behind the front; sustained winds of 6 to 12 knots are
anticipated areawide by no later than 06-09Z tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain showers Friday night into
Saturday and on Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds of 15 to 25 knots continue through this evening
before a cold front moves east across the area and winds weaken to
10 to 15 knots and out of the southwest tonight and Wednesday. High
pressure builds in Wednesday night through Friday, with winds
remaining at or below 15 knots. A weak low moves across or in the
vicinity of Lake Erie on Saturday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ142>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Maines/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Maines
MARINE...Saunders


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