930
FXUS63 KFGF 130855
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
355 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of frost are expected this morning across portions of
  northwest Minnesota and northeastern North Dakota.
  Temperatures in the low to mid 30s are possible.

- Patchy smoke remains in place across the area through much of
  the day ahead of our next system that moves into the region
  tonight into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

An active pattern prevails through much of this week as several
shortwaves traverse the region. Upper flow from 500mb up to 300mb
remains rather progressive, with a substantially more amplified
pattern from 500mb down to 700mb. For today, dry air remains in
place across the area, along with low relative humidity. RH values
could fall into the lower 20 percent range once more in some areas;
however, winds will be relatively light, generally in the range of 7
to 12 mph.

A slow moving shortwave will bring rain chances into the region
starting early Tuesday, then persist through the day on Wednesday
before tapering off Thursday. A good portion of the area has a 30
percent chance to see 0.50 inch of rain from this first system. An
isolated thunderstorm is possible; however, there is little, if any,
support for strong storms.

A second system is being highlighted by ensemble clusters starting
late Thursday. The pattern is very similar, as a weak H7 trough
traverses the area. This system has a 20 percent chance of bringing
0.50 inch of rain to portions of the region, with low confidence in
the exact location. A few thunderstorms are possible, with the best
chances along the ND/SD border.

Heading into the weekend, another upper low is showing up in several
sources of guidance; however, confidence is low as ensemble members
show a good bit of disagreement. In general, the pattern remains
somewhat close to what we are expecting through much of next week,
with chances for showers and thunderstorms expected. For the
weekend, there seems to be a more favorable setup for perhaps a
stronger storm or two.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Lingering 5-6SM smoke in SE ND and into WC MN up thru Bemidji.
This should improve to P6SM after daybreak. Skies mainly clear,
but some false ceilings from some AWOS sites due to particles
aloft at the 4-5k ft agl layer. North wind 5 to 10 kts into
Monday morning gradually turning more northeast and east into
the aftn.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for NDZ006>008-016-
     054.
MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ004>009-
     013>017.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Riddle