079
FXUS63 KFGF 101944
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
244 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms across northwestern
  Minnesota this afternoon. Isolated stronger cells with
  lightning, pea hail, and wind gusts to 55 mph.

- Near critical fire weather conditions continue in portions of
  the Red River Valley with winds gusting to 35 mph and dry
  relative humidity values near 25 percent.

- Very similar conditions tomorrow, with a few storms near Lake
  of the Woods and low relative humidity values and gusty west
  winds in the northern Red River Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Fairly strong shortwave digging through northern MN currently,
with cumulus and showers across much of our eastern CWA. No
reports of small hail so far, but a few are tall enough to
produce lightning and a couple of cells were strong enough to
mix down a few gusts above 50 mph. Will continue some messaging
for stronger storms through sunset, but the 500 J/kg of surface
based CAPE that we see will rapidly diminish and there is no
shear to speak of. Thus. most of the cumulus should dissipate
and allow mostly clear skies for aurora viewing, although some
cirrus could start moving in towards morning. The breezy
northwest winds will also settle down and RH values will
improve, improving our near critical fire weather conditions in
the Red River Valley.

Similar conditions for tomorrow however, as another shortwave
moves through southern Manitoba and brings more shower activity
to northwestern Minnesota. This time the CWA will be in the warm
sector of the surface low with southwesterly winds and highs
approaching 80 degrees in the Red River Valley. RH values will
again be down near the 25 percent mark although winds will be
lighter everywhere except the far northern Red River Valley. May
have to watch that area again for near critical fire weather
concerns. As for as convection goes, the HREF has a few updraft
helicity tracks that are on the high side tomorrow afternoon,
but CAPE values are less than 1000 J/kg and think probabilities
for anything actually severe are under 10 percent.

Frontal boundary pushing in behind the shortwave and high
pressure building in will bring cooler temperatures and quiet
weather for Sunday and Monday. A trough of low pressure will
begin to approach by late Tuesday, coming out into the Plains on
Wednesday. How this system is handled mid to late week as it
moves into the eastern Plains and into the Rockies is not
particularly well handled by the ensembles, with about an even
split in the clusters by Thursday between a trough to our west
and a ridge. Blend gives us fairly active precip chances with
slightly below average highs and this seems reasonable at this
point.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Cumulus and showers developing mainly over northwestern MN, but
all sites VFR and will remain so as convective activity
dissipates after sunset. Winds will be the primary aviation
concern with many airports gusting above 30 kts from the
northwest this afternoon. Should see winds slowly taper off this
evening, eventually becoming light and variable overnight. By
the end of the period there will be a shift to the southwest at
less than 10 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR