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000
FXUS63 KFGF 221530
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1030 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and early
  evening in southeast North Dakota. Near critical fire weather
  conditions for the Red Rive valley for parts of west central
  MN.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

The regional radar loop continues to show a thin line of mainly
virga moving across eastern North Dakota into northwest
Minnesota. Surface observations show the cloud bases are between
9000 and 12000 feet. Under these echoes, only a few stations
have actually reported a trace at the surface. The forecast only
has isolated showers mentioned with this line, which
corresponds very well to what is going on right now. Otherwise,
the clearing is working into the western Devils Lake region, so
there will be a period of sunny skies working in behind the weak
line of virga/showers. Overall, no changes needed to the
forecast at this point.

UPDATE
Issued at 659 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Band of elevated light rain showers extends from Langdon
southwest to near Bismarck. Few sprinkles are reaching the
ground in spots but not much more than that. Did update pops
earlier to cap at 20 pct so to have a slight chance wording. BIS
updated to add a mention of thunder to the far northern part of
ND and I added it as well. CAPE values of a couple hundred, but
most of the instability is more in S Manitoba. Rest of the
forecast is looking on target.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Upper level wave will continue to move east-southeast from
southern Saskatchewan this morning to near Winnipeg this evening
and then toward Duluth 12z Tuesday. Moisture ahead of this
feature is very limited as sfc trough moves into west fcst area
12z period and moves east thru the morning and early aftn.
Some low pops for a shower will continue but not looking like
much. West winds behind this trough will increase with soundings
showing max winds aloft more in west central into south central
ND with west wind potential in the 25-35 mph in gusts into
southeast ND with sustained winds 20 mph. This combined with RH
values dropping to near 20 percent in east central and southeast
ND will lead to critical fire weather conditions based on North
Dakota Fire Weather Red Flag matrix. Clouds, a bit more
moisture will remain or move into northeast ND mid to late aftn
as upper wave moves to our north/northeast. Clouds and a few
light rain showers will spread southeast thru the area tonight
exiting west central MN Tuesday morning as upper wave goes by to
our east. A period of gusty north winds will occur Tuesday
morning with gusts 35 mph.

There will be steep lapse rates of 8-9.5 C/km behind the cold
front along with low level dry air across the Highway 200
corridor points south. Precipitation will need to overcome the
dry air to reach the surface in southeastern North Dakota and
west central Minnesota.

We will see ridging making its way into the region mid week,
with warmer airmass moving in. Highs upper 50s to mid 60s
Wednesday and mid 60s to mid 70s on Thursday. Despite the warm
temperatures on Thursday dew points will be higher, at least as
it appears now, with lowest RH values well above critical fire
weather values.

Upper level trough enters the western US Thursday setting the
stage for an active period for the Plains. One wave will bring
showers and a few t-storms into our area mainly Friday, with
additional waves after so thus due to timing differences we end
up with an extended period of POPs. Chances to see QPF of 0.25
inches over 48 hours (Thursday night through Saturday night) is
40-60% for areas south east of the Devils Lake Basin.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 659 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Mid clouds moving thru the area this morning with surface
trough, then likely clearing for a while before lower clouds
with 500 mb low moves into NE ND late aftn/eve and spreads south
tonight then clears out Tuesday. Winds quite changeable as they
go from south to southwest, then west and gusty this aftn/eve
and then more northwest late tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

West winds will move into southeast and east central ND midday
and be present thru the evening. Strongest winds to be west of
our area, but sufficiently strong winds (sustained 20-25 mph)
and gusts 35 mph will occur into SE ND combined with a very dry
airmass in place with lowest RH values near 20 percent to bring
critical fire weather conditions from Eddy to Trail county ND
and south. In western Minnesota RH values just a tad higher and
winds also a tad lower and conditions look good for an SPS for
near critical fire weather from Norman county to Grant County
MN. This was coord with MPX/ABR for MN SPS and with BIS for RFW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NDZ024-
     028>030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle