753
FXUS63 KILX 142006
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
306 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms bringing more rainfall to central Illinois.
  East of I-57 has a 50-80% chance of receiving another inch of
  precipitation by tomorrow morning.

- Localized flooding concerns exist for areas that thunderstorms
  overachieve this evening and overnight. Runoff could cause
  streams and creeks to rise.

- The next opportunity for showers and thunderstorms comes
  Thursday into Friday. (50-75% chance of showers & t`storms)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

There is a low pressure system slowly moving across the CWA this
afternoon. It will continue transversing through the evening and
overnight hours, and should exit eastern Illinois by 2-3 AM (07-
08z). Showers and thunderstorms rotate around the low pressure
center east-northeastward across the CWA. Forecast soundings from
the NAM show weak, but long, skinny CAPE for the areas along and
east of I-57. PWAT values are forecast to be 1.25-1.5 inches. The
HREF LPMM is showing some localized areas of 2-4 inches of
precipitation along the IL/IN border and south of I-70. There is a
widespread 50-80% chance for an additional inch of rainfall for this
area by early tomorrow morning.

The area where there could be some concern for any localized flash
flooding appears to be south of I-70. FFG based off of VWX radar is
quite high with the 3 hour FFG being 2.2-2.5 inches. Some of the
showers that are out there have seemed to be overachievers. The MRMS
QPE is showing a 3 hour accumulation in the band of stronger showers
in Greene and Calhoun counties of around 1.5 inches. MRMS seems to
be in line with true observations. Outside of the CWA, where the
stronger band I previously mentioned is, the 24 hour MRMS matches
with reports LSX have received. The runoff precipitation could cause
the local streams and creeks to rise.

The week isn`t a complete wash out but there also isn`t long period
of dry weather. There is going to be rain periodically through the
extended forecast as multiple shortwaves make their way through the
region. The next round of rain comes on Thursday and the scattered
showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday. Then the
next substantial chance could arrive Tuesday.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

IFR to MVFR conditions will occur over the central IL airports
with scattered showers occuring into early evening, and linger
through tonight in CMI. Isolated thunderstorms possible this
afternoon and early evening but coverage too limited to mention in
TAFs. The 563 dm 500 mb low in central MO will track into
southern IL by 06Z/1 am tonight and into the central Ohio river
valley on Wed morning. As it shifts eastward, the low cloud bases
will lift or scatter out at PIA and possibly BMI later tonight and
Wed morning. East winds 8-14 kts with gusts to around 20 kts
early this afternoon to shift ENE to NE during this afternoon and
NNE to NE tonight and stay near or just above 10 kts.

07

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$