Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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067 FXUS64 KLIX 262348 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 648 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through 12Z Wednesday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Upper level weak ridging is currently over us with a surface high over the Bahamas and extending into the eastern GOM. Into Monday, a weak upper trough passes to our north providing a focus for potential rain and a bit of a possibility for severe weather, which will be high winds if it does happen. Beyond that, we can expect to see the summertime pattern of spotty afternoon convection. The real point of interest for the short term is going to be the heat. With the Memorial Day observance likely bringing outdoor activities, we are highlighting the high temperatures and humidities driving Apparent Temperatures into the 105+ range. While this is below our Heat Advisory criteria, the combination of first occurrence and high outdoor activities has led to issuance of a Heat Advisory from late morning to early evening tomorrow. /Schlotz/ && .LONG TERM... (12Z Wednesday through Saturday night) Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Medium range models in fairly good agreement with the pattern just some differences in the sensible weather and details which at this time would be rather difficult to nail down. The main culprit is the handling of the massive ridge that will move across the central CONUS and build east through the second half of the work week. How strong the ridge is and how fast moves east and far north it is based at could make the difference between sct convection 1 or 2 days with an increase in cloud cover leading to warm and humid days or no rain and rather hot days. With so much uncertainty don`t feel comfortable at this time straying away from the NBM as it is a good middle of the ground approach. As we head into Wednesday the Great Lakes trough will be pushing off to the east and by the end of the day should be nudging into the Atlantic. This will try to place the area under northwest flow aloft and as we move deeper and deeper into the Summer northwest flow can be tricky. We could remain dry or we could see strong to severe storms. The northwest flow would lead to much later initiation so Wednesday could be a rather warm day but a lot depends on how much mid and high clouds are moving over the area because there should be a decent s/w off to our northwest Tuesday night and early Wednesday leading to mid and upper lvl cloud blowoff from dying convection to our west Wednesday morning. If there is no cloud cover we will get hot and likely see convection initiate late afternoon/early evening but if there is a lot of cloud debris we won`t get as hot (but make no mistake it will still be pretty miserable) and there is a good chance we will remain mostly rain free. We could be in a similar predicament Thursday and into Friday but that will be determined by how strong the ridge is and whether any impulse off to our northwest can undercut it bringing additional isltd to sct convection late in the day. Some solutions have the ridge axis building from the northern Gulf through the western Great Lakes while a few other solutions have the base of the ridge moving across the northern Lower MS Valley and then off to our east. The flow is more zonal then over us and could allow any impulses that move through the southern Plains to try and dive east southeast to undercut the ridge and that would have the potential to bring additional storms. Main take away though is the 2nd half of the work week looks to be warm and humid with a chance of late afternoon storms with Wednesday having the greatest chance at this time. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 643 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 VFR coverage of lower cu streets continue with stiff southerly flow across the northern Gulf Coast. Intermittent MVFR CIGs are likely to extend through the overnight hours with more BKN coverage mixing in and southerly winds will remain near 10 knots. Will be monitoring latest guidance for trends in SH/TS activity headed into tomorrow. Uncertainty exists regarding extent of coverage of stronger thunderstorms starting late morning into evening and will likely need to add and refine timing of these storms for terminals in subsequent forecasts. Have noted VCTS in MCB to start, but exact timing/coverage of stronger storms further south is far less certain at this lead time. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Surface high pressure centered near the Bahamas and extending into the eastern GOM has winds out of the south to southwest. Tonight expect winds to increase to just over 15 kt which resulted in issuance of a Small Craft Exercise Caution headline. Beyond tonight, winds over the waters are likely to remain near to below 15 kt through the rest of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 91 73 93 68 / 0 30 20 10 BTR 94 78 96 74 / 0 20 30 0 ASD 92 76 94 72 / 0 10 30 0 MSY 92 79 93 77 / 0 10 40 0 GPT 88 77 90 73 / 0 10 40 10 PQL 90 76 91 71 / 0 20 30 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for MSZ068-077-083- 084-086-087. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM....CAB AVIATION...TJS MARINE...DS