664
FXUS64 KMAF 161753
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1253 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

The short term forecast today is front-loaded, with potential
severe thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening before the
pattern becomes much more quiescent Friday through next week. The
much- advertised cold front has progressed to the vicinity of the
Pecos River, and while a blanket of low clouds encompassed areas
to the north, these clouds have started to lift and scatter, and
in areas with clearing, isolated showers and thunderstorms have
developed given ample moisture and ascent over the boundary in an
environment characterized by 1250-1500 J/kg MUCAPE. This ascent is
facilitated by a positively tilted trough to the west of the
region, maintaining southwesterly flow over Southeast New Mexico
and West Texas. Per latest water vapor imagery, this low remains
over western New Mexico, and will continue its eastward trek
through tonight, with falling heights and cooling temperatures
aloft contributing to steepening lapse rates, potentially in
excess of 9deg C/km by this afternoon. More robust convective
development is thus expected, with ample shear, considerable low-
level moisture, and the aforementioned steep lapse rates favorable
for supercell development on the cool side of the boundary this
afternoon. These initial supercells, likely across Southeast New
Mexico, the Upper Trans Pecos, and western Permian Basin, would
carry large hail and damaging winds as the primary concerns, with
antecedent atmospheric conditions yielding an expected transition
to multi-cell clusters and upscale growth as outflow boundaries
merge, a solution echoed by various CAMs. Once storms develop and
grow upscale, locally heavy rain and damaging winds/wet
microbursts become more of a concern, though hail potential will
still remain. Activity will gradually move east through this
evening as the aforementioned trough swings through the region,
though showers may linger over northeastern areas through late
tonight.

Temperatures overnight will trend a bit cooler, in the 50s for
most as drier air filters into the region as the dryline pushes
east and the cold front pushes south. Given continued cool
advection Friday, temperatures will remain below normal, topping
out in the 80s for most, with 90s mainly along the Rio Grande and
portions of the Lower Trans Pecos. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms is possible Friday afternoon, associated with a weak
shortwave on the back side of the departing trough, and primarily
over the higher terrain to the west and southwest where
orographic lifting will play a role. A lower chance exists across
the eastern Permian Basin as the shortwave translates across the
area, but chances remain low, around 10-15%, with no severe
weather expected. By Friday evening, storms will diminish, with a
dry forecast thereafter. Lows Friday night dip into the 50s and
60s once again, ahead of a big warm-up that`ll begin this weekend,
and carry into next week.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Following the short wave trough and associated cold front, below
average temperatures Thursday and Friday, a warming trend sets in
as a zonal/split jet flow pattern continues and ridging builds in
into early next week. Above average highs and lows are likely by
Saturday with mainly 90s and above for highs, upper 50s to upper
60s lows, with the first triple digits of the year forecast for
Midland/Odessa and many locations in the Permian Basin Sunday,
Monday, and possibly Tuesday under mostly clear skies and westerly
downslope winds. Except for higher elevations in the mountains,
everywhere should see highs at the very least reaching the mid to
upper 90s, 10 to 15 degrees above normal for mid May. Heat stress
could be an issue given the early timing of triple digit heat. A
cold front moving through mid week will drop temperatures closer
to average for the end of the long term next Wednesday and
Thursday, with highs ranging from the upper 80s and 90s to the
triple digits near the Rio Grande and lows ranging from the mid
50s northernmost Lea County and Permian Basin to 60s south and
lowers 70s near the Rio Grande, still 5 to 10 degrees above
average but not as warm as earlier in the week. At this time, we
are not expecting much if any rainfall with the cold front next
week, but we will continue to monitor the forecast for
consistently in signal of increasing or decreasing PoPs in
synoptic and mesoscale models.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

MVFR CIGs continue at KMAF this hour, clearing to FEW-SCT040-050
by 19Z. Scattered TSRA developing around the Sacramento-Guadalupe
Ranges early this afternoon, moving east through the mid-afternoon
hours. Likely TS impacts across SE NM and Trans-Pecos areas
between 20-23Z, with temporary reductions to 2-4 miles within
storms. Surface winds generally 330-010 at 10-15 knots, with gusty
and variable winds around TSRA this afternoon. Storm threat
ending by sunset, with FEW-SCT140 overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               56  82  60  98 /  50  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 56  86  60  98 /  20  10   0   0
Dryden                   64  91  64 101 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            58  88  63  99 /  10  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           55  79  62  88 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                    54  82  56  95 /  40  10   0   0
Marfa                    50  83  53  92 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     57  83  60  98 /  30  10   0   0
Odessa                   57  84  61  98 /  30  10   0   0
Wink                     57  88  59 101 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...84