Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 290830

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
230 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...Upper short wave trough will push through the state
today, providing ample lift to trigger showers/thunderstorms.
The focus of the storms will be over our South Central Highlands
and Southeastern Highlands where CAPE values as high as 500 to
1000 J/kg are expected. As the storms taper off overnight and the
trough moves on to the east, high pressure will begin building
back into the area. This will contribute to breezy conditions
Monday as the gradient tightens up. We may be looking at another
Lake Wind Advisory for the American Falls reservoir Monday
afternoon/early evening as sustained winds may reach 20 kts.

Upper ridging will become dominant throughout the course of the
coming week. Long-term models project warm and dry conditions to
prevail into next weekend with highs approaching the upper 80s by
Friday. Hinsberger

.AVIATION...A shortwave feature will approach east Idaho for a
threat of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. The best
chance for storms looks to be over the highlands south and east of
the Snake Plain. Gusty outflow winds will be the greatest threat.
KPIH/KBYI terminals likely closest to threat area and will keep VCTS
otherwise dry VFR conditions expected for remainder of region. Cold
front passage during the evening will allow surface gradient to
tighten overnight and will likely keep winds elevated into Monday
morning then increasing for the day. DMH


.FIRE WEATHER...Shortwave feature moving through the PacNW states
toward Idaho today. Best chance for thunderstorms associated with
feature will be in southern and eastern highlands but sliver of
instability also exists across eastern edge of the central
mountains. Believe the Snake Plain will remain dry but thunderstorms
could migrate into the edges of the plain. Gusty outflow winds the
main threat today. Cold front associated with the shortwave drifts
across the region during the evening. Surface gradient tightens
overnight for elevated mixing and winds with winds increasing into
Monday. Once the shortwave feature moves east, upper ridge is
forecast to build into the region for the remainder of the week.
Models now indicating further strengthening of the ridge over the
Great Basin into the weekend though some moisture appears to try to
work around the ridge axis. Forecast remains dry and warm for now.


.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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