Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 271820
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1220 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE COLUMBIA BASIN THIS AFTN WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE ID/WY BORDER
ON THU. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE INSTABILITY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS THRU
THURSDAY. SOME TSTMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRI IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVER THE MTNS ON FRI...THEN DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORN. TEMPS WILL FINALLY BEGIN WARMING UP ON FRI.
HEDGES

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE HOLD OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE GIVING WAY TO YET ANOTHER SLOW
MOVING LOW NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL PUNCH INTO THE 80S WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. A FEW CELLS
MAY POP UP FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST BUT DEFINITELY ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS IT LOOKS LIKE AT THE MOMENT. THE LOW MOVES CLOSER ON
MONDAY...WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER EASTERN IDAHO. WE
MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF PRETTY STRONG STORMS THAT DAY
SINCE IT SHOULD STILL BE PRETTY WARM ALTHOUGH A BIT COOLER COMPARED
TO THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS EXHIBIT SOME PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES
THOUGH AFTER THAT. THE GFS IS SLOW MOVING AND TAKES THE LOW INTO
MONTANA. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF WANTS TO TAKE A BIGGER CLOSED LOW
SOUTH INTO IDAHO. FOR NOW...WE HAVE SHOWERS AND STORMS ONGOING IN
THE FORECAST WITH AN EMPHASIS ACROSS THE NORTH. EITHER WAY...IT WILL
BE COOLER AND SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH A LOT OF 50S AND
60S. WE COULD SEE SOME 70S IF WE GET MORE SUN. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...WE ARE LOOKING FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE AS THE
STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER IDAHO IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF A
SHOWER OR STORM SHIFTS OVER A PARTICULAR AIRPORT...SMALL HAIL AND
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THESE STORMS ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW MAY ACTUALLY PRODUCE WINDS OVER 35KTS ON
OCCASION. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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