Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 161957
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
157 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
WAS SHOWING A MODEST RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NW COAST WHILE THE NEXT
UPSTREAM PAC DISTURBANCE ADVANCED TOWARD SEATTLE. THIS MORNINGS
MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED DRIER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A RESULT OF
THE INCOMING RIDGE SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUITE WITH THE FORECAST. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE NEXT PAC TROUGH WILL HAVE REACHED THE NW
COAST...SPREADING INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHIFTING INTO THE CNTRL
MOUNTAINS LATE FRIDAY MORNING WHILE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
ATTENDING PRECIPITATION SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
AROUND NOON FRIDAY. WOULD HAVE HOPED FOR A STRONGER CONSENSUS
TREND IN THE MODELS AT THIS POINT BUT BOTH THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN RUNS. THUS HAVE GENERALLY DECIDED TO TRY AND
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS TARGETING FRIDAY AS THE BEST
PERIOD FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS SE IDAHO. THE NAM DID
FLASH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ERN HIGHLANDS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE ADDED THAT TO THE GOING
FORECAST. WIND SPEEDS ALSO LOOK TO APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS AND WE
MAY SEE YET ANOTHER WIND HEADLINE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY
SATURDAY...THE GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW DRIER CONDITIONS UNDER A WEAK WEST
FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SKIRTING THE SRN HIGHLANDS. HAVE MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
GOING FORECAST WHICH MENTIONS A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SRN
HIGHLANDS SATURDAY. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THE MOST PART
EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE PRECIPITATION.   FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND EXPECT AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.  BOTH EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS INDICATING STRONG UPPER TROF
AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND HAVE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE GRIDS
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL.
GK
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ONLY SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.  WILL
HAVE AN INCREASE IN UP VALLEY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOONS AT BYI...PIH
AND IDA TO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. GK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$













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