Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 220928
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
328 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT. LOW EXPECTED TO CROSS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS WILL DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE MORE SO THAN YESTERDAY AND SO TODAY SHOULD SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE ENERGY IS
STILL FAIRLY LOW. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE AND MAY
PREVENT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE FROM BEING REACHED. SLOW MOVING
CELLS WITH WEAK UPPER AIR FLOW COULD MEAN SOME HEAVY RAINS AND
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. STRONG COOLING TODAY...BUT THERE IS A
RAPID CHANGE IN STORE BY TUE. THE LOW CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TRACK
AND CLEAR SKIES AND SUNSHINE RETURN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND
INTO THE LOW 80S FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND
PRECIPITATION THREAT NEAR ZERO THROUGH WED NIGHT. MESSICK

.LONG TERM...THU THROUGH SUN EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS
CONCERNING TIMING OF A MAJOR TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GEM STATE.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO BRING IN THE RAIN...AND THUS IS WETTER ON
SUN. MEANWHILE...THE FASTER GFS IS WETTER FOR FRI AND SAT. THIS
DIFFERENCE HAS CONTINUED FOR THREE NIGHTS AND TWO DAYS NOW...AND
SO HAVE PAINTED CLOUDS AND POPS WITH A VERY BROAD BRUSH. THE ONE
THING THAT THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON IS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. SO HAVE
KEPT POPS FAIRLY HIGH...AT LEAST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. MESSICK


&&

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION TODAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MUCH
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CEILINGS TODAY. THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG THAT COULD AFFECT SOME TAF
SITES AND COULD RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A COUPLE HOURS
EARLY THIS MORNING.

VALLE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION
TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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