912
FXUS61 KRLX 131505
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1105 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides dry and mostly pleasant weather today,
amid a warming trend. Wet weather returns tonight lasting into
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1100 AM Monday...

Tweaked dew points down a few degrees to better reflect observed
conditions and forecast mixing into substantially drier air
aloft. With such dry air aloft to overcome, any accumulating
precipitation is likely delayed until late tonight/early
Tuesday.

As of 550 AM Monday...

Made updates to temperatures as valley locations have decoupled
and are seeing the lowest temperatures compared to ridge tops.
Temperatures in the lower 30s are being reported on weather
stations across Nicholas, Pocahontas, Randolph and Webster
counties. That said, continued the SPS for frost until 830 this
morning for these locations.

Models are starting to slow the timing for the onset of rain
showers tonight by an hour or two, still starting it before
midnight though. The HRRR does through some scattered showers
across the area later this afternoon ahead of the main batch of
showers that will arrive from the SW before midnight. QPF has
also backed off quite a bit as well, but still seeing PWATs
between 1.25" and 1.50" on HiRes model data early Tuesday
morning, so will have to monitor trends closely.

As of 200 AM Monday...

Expecting another cool morning with surface high pressure to
our east invading the area. Most locations have already
decoupled or will within the next few hours due to stagnant air
flow from proximity to the high. Patchy fog along the sheltered
river valleys across the coalfields of VA/WV, metro valley and
the mountains. Radiational cooling also allowing for cool spots
to see low temperatures in the lower 40s across the lowlands;
upper 30s in the mountains. Pockets of frost will be possible in
the mountain valleys across Pocahontas and Randolph counties.
An SPS has been hoisted to cover this as frost not expected to
be widespread enough for an advisory.

Skies will remain mostly clear, outside of some passing cirrus
from the west through the morning. High temperatures look to be above
normal today due to southerly flow picking up this afternoon.
Highs will be in the low 80s across the lowlands, 70s to around
80 in the mountains.

Expecting more cloud coverage later this afternoon with
lowering ceilings, especially this evening when an occluding low
moves out of the Mississippi River Valley and over the eastern
Midwest. That said, PoPs increase from SW to NE later this
evening as it slowly makes its way towards us. PoPs become
likely by midnight with scattered showers, and even slight
chances for an isolated thunderstorm across the coalfields and
the eastern mountains. Tuesday looks to start out rather wet
after having a few decent, albeit chilly mornings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...

Wet weather will persist through the middle of the work week as
an upper-level trough slowly moves east across the Great Lakes
and mid-Atlantic, while a surface low and front linger over the
region. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout
the period, but are forecast to be most numerous from later
Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon as the warm front goes
stationary over or just north of the CWA and the upper-level
trough gets closer. With the forecast passage of the upper
trough and the surface low and cold front late Wednesday, most
shower activity should start to taper off or move away to the
east Wednesday night.

WPC did maintain our area in a Marginal risk for excessive
rainfall for Tuesday and Tuesday night. While model precipitable
water values aren`t anything crazy (1.25-1.50 inches, maybe
some higher pockets), the potential for cumulative impacts of
multiple heavy showers or t-storms could lead to some issues.
The storm total forecast from late Mon night through Wed night
would have 1.00-1.50 inches across most of the area, but of
course some higher pockets will be possible depending on any
potential training or repeated hits.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 325 AM Monday...

Transient upper-level ridging should allow for mostly dry
conditions across the area on Thursday. That said, with enough
boundary layer moisture and some light upslope flow, a few
terrain-driven showers or t-storms are possible in the
afternoon. Models seem to be in reasonable agreement on the
passage of another front with some showers and storms Friday
afternoon or night, with some ridging expected afterwards.
However, models diverge over the weekend with how `clean` or
`dirty` the ridge may be, thus some chance POPs are maintained
across the region due to this uncertainty.

Temps look to stay near to a bit above normal during the period,
but we`ll have to keep an eye on the strength of the Friday
front to see if that may drop temps a bit for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 645 AM Monday...

VFR through the period, outside of patchy river valley fog this
morning. EKN is reporting IFR restrictions due to fog; CRW is
reporting VCFG but winds are picking up and not expecting major
impacts, still allowed TEMPO groups and VCFG to cover scattered
nature of fog. Expecting return to VFR by ~13Z for any sites
experiencing restrictions.

High clouds will filter through this morning and will be SCT at
times, before becoming BKN by afternoon; SCT mid-level clouds
due to daytime heating will be likely as well. CIGs will
gradually start lowering SW to NE after ~20Z as a disturbance
makes its way toward the region. VFR still expected at least
until ~06Z Tuesday.

Light to calm S`rly winds this morning will pick up at a light
to gentle breeze by afternoon. Winds will be breezy at times in
the mountains later today.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
Scattered IFR visibilities and ceilings are possible in rain
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/LTC
NEAR TERM...JP/LTC
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...LTC