210
FXUS62 KTBW 111403
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1003 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

The surface frontal boundary has moved through the Tampa Bay area
and is now slowly approaching the Lake Okeechobee region. Recent
radar imagery continues to show a band of weak showers
accompanying the boundary with precipitation activity moving to
the SSE. This activity should generally taper off over the next
couple of hours as the boundary drops into south Florida later
today. The drier air filtering in behind the front should yield a
mainly dry day today for most of the forecast area with generally
improving conditions and lowering humidity levels, though there
may be enough lingering moisture to support some isolated shower
and storm chances for southern interior areas. However, given the
west-northwest flow in place, expecting the better PoPs to be
east of the area on the eastern side of the peninsula where more
favorable sea breeze convergence will occur. Otherwise, other than
some minor tweaks to PoPs this morning based on recent radar
trends, the forecast remains on track at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak frontal boundary is over N FL with a broken band of weak
showers well ahead of it that continues to slowly sag over the
C FL Peninsula early this morning through daybreak. The rain and
frontal boundary will be across the southern part of the
peninsula later today, while drier air and high pressure filters
into N FL.

The high pressure center quickly moves into the W Atlantic Sunday
with a warm and dry Mother`s Day expected. The next southern tier
storm system is expected to develop and move through the N Gulf
region Monday with winds becoming E-SE increasing moisture. The
main dynamics and surface low are expected to remain well N of the
area as the weakening attendant cold front stalls in N FL. The
S-SW low level flow will persist with modest instability and
diurnal heating will increase much needed rain chances for the
area Tue-Fri.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Occasional MVFR CIGs will be possible to start the TAF period as a
band of light showers gradually pushes southward. The shower
activity should quickly taper off by mid to late morning with
drier air building in and this will provide for VFR conditions for
the remainder of the period. Winds will generally be from the
west-northwest at around 8-12 kts but occasional stronger gusts
will be possible at times.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak frontal boundary continues to slowly move through the area
as high pressure builds into the Northern Gulf with northwesterly
winds. The high pressure area will quickly move into the Western
Atlantic with winds swiftly to the east and then southeast Sunday
into early next week. Another front moves into the region Tuesday
with southwest winds increasing to near exercise caution levels
with increasing rain chances as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Weak high pressure is expected to build into the region this
weekend with drier air moves into the area, especially on
Sunday, but winds are expected to remain below critical
criteria preventing Red Flag conditions. Low-level moisture
and rain chances are expected to increase next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  71  90  74 /  10   0   0   0
FMY  91  71  93  72 /  20   0  10   0
GIF  95  67  92  71 /  10   0   0   0
SRQ  90  69  91  71 /  20   0   0   0
BKV  91  62  91  66 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  88  74  89  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 8
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 8

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hubbard