Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 240850
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
350 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind gusts to 55 mph are likely today/tonight.

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely today and tonight. Some
  storms could be strong to severe across portions of central
  Kansas tonight.

- Colder temperatures move in Monday night and some light snow
  (less than an inch) is possible north of I-70.

- A hard freeze is forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

A deep, negatively tilted trough will move into the central
Plains today and the pressure gradient will continue to steepen
across the area. Boundary-layer winds will increase through the
day in response. A low-level jet of 60 knots will overspread the
area as well. While thick cloud cover and a lack of deep mixing
should prevent these winds from fully reaching the surface,
some downward momentum aided by rain showers or thunderstorms
could lead to isolated gusts in the 60 mph range. But generally
we should see sustained winds 25-35 mph with gusts 45 to 55 mph.

A fast-moving mid-level wave out ahead of the main system is
moving through the area and generating enough lift for some
scattered showers and thunderstorms early this morning. This
activity should stay across northern Kansas and exit the area
around sunrise. However, strong warm-air advection and broad
lift will increase through the day. Therefore, another round of
scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible across most of
the area this afternoon. By this evening, the surface low will
begin to lift into north central Kansas and more robust
thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening across
portions of central Kansas as forcing and instability increase.
The greatest instability and therefore the greatest severe
threat will remain southwest of our area, but there is a
conditional threat (15% chance) that enough instability gets
advected northward and lapse rates steep enough to allow for the
more robust convection to persist into our western counties. If
this scenario occurs, the impressive shear and forcing of this
dynamic system would support a lingering strong/severe storm
risk. Damaging wind gusts 60-65 mph would be the primary hazard,
given the widespread 50-55 mph gusts that should be ongoing
outside of storms. Hail to around 1 inch and even a brief
tornado could be a possible (5% chance) secondary hazards.

The 00 UTC guidance has the system moving out a bit later than
previous guidance was suggesting. We will likely be under the
influence of a dry slot during the morning hours of Monday, and
even see some sunshine, but a strong cold front will move
through during the afternoon. Timing of the front will be key as
some short-term guidance depicts some strong thunderstorms
developing along the front during the late afternoon. Some
marginally severe hail would be possible in any thunderstorms
that do develop Monday afternoon due to a low freezing level
aloft. Right now, the consensus is the front will be just along
our eastern CWA border by the time storms initiate and rapidly
exit Kansas shortly thereafter.

Much colder air moves in behind the departing system Monday
night. Some wrap-around moisture may be enough to give us some
light snow Monday night into Tuesday morning. Less than an inch
of snow may fall along and north of I-70. Probabilities of more
than an inch remain less than 10% over the whole area. A hard
freeze is likely Tuesday and Wednesday mornings as cold air
advection and surface high pressure move in. A warmup is favored
for the last half of the week as an upper-level ridge develops
over the central Plains.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

VFR becoming MVFR by tomorrow afternoon in rain showers. A low-
level jet will increase over the next several hours. This will
lead to low-level wind shear across all terminals. Southerly
surface wind speeds will increase through the morning and peak
in the afternoon with gusts around 40 knots. Some off and on
rain showers are possible through the morning and early
afternoon, but the best chances of more widespread rainfall
arrive during the evening hours. A few thunderstorms may also
impact the terminals during this period, but confidence isn`t
high enough to place in the TAF at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-
KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Jones


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