Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 232009
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
309 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-A strong system will bring advisory level winds tomorrow into
 Monday with gusts of 50 mph looking likely.

-Rain showers expected through tomorrow with an increasing
 chance for stronger storms into the evening hours.

-Much cooler weather is then expected through the middle of next
 week with hard freezes both Monday night and Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

This afternoon, a subtle shortwave with weak PVA and a batch of mid-
level moisture was moving from west to east across KS. Radar has
been showing 20-30 dBZ reflectivities with the subtle wave, but
forecast soundings reveal a layer of dry beneath the cloud
deck. A few sprinkles/flurries or perhaps some light rain may
manage to find the ground, but we will keep POPs in the 15-25
percent range today. A stronger system will approach the region
tomorrow as a Pacific Northwest mid-level low digs along the
west coast, kicking a lead wave out over the Rockies. Lee
cyclogenesis will continue through the day, which models show
leading to the development of an anomalous 980 mb surface low.
The associated pressure gradient across KS will increase,
keeping confidence high (nearly 100%) that winds will exceed
advisory criteria for a large majority of the area tomorrow.
Thus, the Wind Advisory issued by the previous forecast shift
was left untouched for tomorrow and Monday morning. Southerly
winds will become sustained between 25 and 35 mph with gusts as
high as 50 mph by tomorrow afternoon. A 50-60 kt LLJ will be in
place throughout the day, with mixing a bit limited due to
cloud cover and rain. However, rain showers could help transport
higher winds to the surface. Thus, isolated gusts to 55 mph in
central KS could occur.

Focus then shifts to the potential for severe thunderstorms late
tomorrow as low pressure advances northeast. The highest probability
for severe thunderstorms will be west of the CWA where storms should
initially develop near the low in the afternoon. Storms will track
northeast into the CWA during the evening hours, into a low CAPE
high shear environment. HREF shows bulk shear values between 40
and 50 kts but less than 1,000 J/kg of MUCAPE and high amounts
of low level CIN as storms approach. Given the strong wind
parameters, severe level wind gusts will be the main hazard to
watch for with storms into nighttime hours.

A dry slot should keep conditions mainly dry across the area on
Monday while a surface boundary moves through. However, a
deformation zone on the west side of the system could produce
light snow in north-central KS late Monday and Monday night. The
NBM has a 40-70% chance for at least 0.1 inches of snow west of
line from Abilene to Marysville, and a 15-40% chance for half an
inch of snow in that same area. At this time, impacts from
winter weather are expected to be low. Upper level troughing
will be in place through the middle of the week which will keep
conditions cool. A hard freeze is expected both Monday night and
Tuesday night. Ridging and southwesterly low level flow returns
later in the week, which will warm temperatures back to above
average. A weak perturbation in the flow could lead to some
rain/storms on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Strong winds and precipitation become the main concerns this
TAF period, with lowering ceilings an issue toward the end of
the period. Tonight, a strengthening LLJ will create a few
hours of LLWS before sfc winds increase around 12Z. After 12Z,
southerly winds become sustained at 18 to 25 kts with gusts to
around 35 kts. Rain showers and MVFR CIGS will move eastward
across the area into midday, impacting KMHK initially and the
Topeka airports by the end of the 18Z period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 10 AM CDT Monday for KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-
KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-
KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey


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