Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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345
FXUS61 KAKQ 270604
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
204 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the today. High pressure will
build over the area Wednesday...then slides off the coast for
Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Broad trough aloft slides from the eastern Great Lakes/OH
Valley E through the NE CONUS and Mid Atlantic region into
(early) this evening. A relatively potent s/w aloft will track
across the local area this afternoon/early evening. Despite
relatively dry airmass...this system could prove strong enough
to squeeze out ISOLD-SCT SHRAs/tstms...mainly in the aftn/early
evening...esp E of I 95. Will carry 20-30% PoPs...w/ the
highest PoPs over SE VA and NE NC. Highs in the u70s-l80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sfc hi pres will finally build into/over the region tonight
through Wed...providing dry weather and comfortable conditions
under a mainly clear sky. Lows tonight in the l-m50s inland...to
the u50s to l60s at the coast. Highs on Wed ranging in the
l-m80s...mainly 70s at the beaches.

The high will slide off the coast for Wed night and Thu...maintaining
dry wx. A little more humidity returns as SSW flow starts to
dominate again (dewpoints return to more climo normal levels (in
the 60s) by Thu afternoon). Lows Wed night in the u50s-l60s
inland...l-m60s at the coast. Highs Thu 85-90F...except l80s at
the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Long term period will begin mainly dry Thu night/Fri as the
models remain in good agreement with the pattern of high
pressure at the sfc and aloft centered off the mid-Atlc/SE
coast. Highs Fri look to warm into the upper 80s/lower 90s with
dew pts increasing to the upper 60s/lower 70s. An isolated late
day tstm possible over the far W and for interior NE NC but have
genly kept PoPs <15%. A little better chance for rain arrives
Sat aftn/Sat night as somewhat deeper moisture develops along a
lee trough. Will cap PoPs at 20-30% in the aftn/evening under
partly-mostly sunny skies as any more significant forcing stays
W of the Mtns closer to an approaching cold front. Lows mainly
70-75 F with highs again primarily in the upper 80s to lower
90s. Sunday will see a further increase in PoPs to ~40% by
aftn/evening as the cold front gets closer to the local area.
With this several days out will cap PoPs at 40% for now, but may
raise PoPs for this in future updates if the timing holds. Mon
will see the front slow or stall across mainly southern portions
of the area with ~40% PoPs S to 20-30% elsewhere. Lows upper
60s to lower 70s and highs 85-90 F.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions early today across the local area w/ only a SCT-
BKN high based clouds. A weak cold front will pass through the
region today. ISOLD-SCT SHRAs/tstms are possible...mainly this
afternoon and especially E of I 95. Otherwise, VFR conditions
expected for much of the week...as sfc hi pres builds over the
region then slides off the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally a quiet pattern through Wed night with a weak pressure gradient,
although there will be a few brief wind shifts w/ weak frontal passages
early Tue morning and with pressure rises Wed morning as sfc high pressure
builds into the region from the NW. E winds will shift to the SSE and increase
a bit this evening but only to 10-15 kt for a few hrs. Weak CAA on Tue will
only bring N/NW winds behind the front of 10-15 kt, diminishing by aftn to
5-10 kt. Sfc high pressure returns for Wednesday aftn leading to an aftn sea
breeze 10 kt or less. Waves over the Bay only 1-2 ft with seas over the
coastal waters 2-3 ft thru Wed. High pressure slides well off the coast
Thursday/Friday with return flow resulting in increasing S-SW winds
to 15-20 kt. Waves 2-3 ft on the Bay and seas possibly building to 4-
5 ft north of Parramore Island (genly more like 2-4 ft for southern
coastal waters). A few SCA headlines may be needed late Thu/Thu night,
but they will be marginal events.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...JDM



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