Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 020303
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1103 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT...AND STALL OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY...SLIDING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE ACRS MUCH OF CNTRL/SCNTRL VA
NE INTO THE VA NRN NECK AND THE LWR MD ERN SHR LATE THIS EVENG.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF LO PRES AND A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. STRONGER TSTMS WERE MAINLY PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH.
WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS OVR THE NRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATER TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS THE SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SAGS SSE INTO THE AREA. WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 60S TO ARND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY FLATTENS ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...PLENTY OF RETURN MOISTURE STREAMS UP INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BTWN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND A
STALLED CLOSED LOW BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE TN VALLEY/NRN GULF
COAST STATES. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...IT
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE INCOMING MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TUE
AFTN. ONCE AGAIN... PWATS WILL BE AROUND 1.50-1.75 INCHES WITH
STEERING FLOW ALOFT AROUND 20-30KT. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES START OUT
SOMEWHAT DRY BTWN 1000-850MB AND 850-500MB WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
SOUTHWEST WINDS...BUT BECOME SATURATED BY 00Z WED WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTH WINDS. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NEED TO SEE
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS EVENING TO EVALUATE WHETHER OR NOT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR TUE AFTN/EVENING. CURRENT 1HR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REQUIRES A MINIMUM OF 2.50 TO 3.00 INCHES.
MAIN IMPACTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN
POOR DRAINAGE/LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO...SMALL HAIL (LESS THAN ONE
INCH IN DIAMETER) AND WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE. EXPECT COOLER HIGH TEMPS ACROSS FAR NWRN COUNTIES
(MID-UPPER 70S) AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS FROM 80-85 FROM RICHMOND
METRO SEWD. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NW TO
MID-UPPER 60S SE.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES DOWN INTO NEW ENGLAND WED AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON THU. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SFC COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY
PUSH SWD DURING THIS TIME AND KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED
EACH DAY/NIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT
AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS LIGHT AND PWATS HOVER BTWN 1.50-1.75 INCHES.

MUCH COOLER WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NW TO
MID-UPPER 70S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE 60S. HIGHS ON THU REBOUND
SLIGHTLY WITH READINGS OF 75-80 DEGREES. ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER
AT THE BEACHES ON WED...AND ONLY AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
BEACHES ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED CONDS WITH NR NORMAL
TEMPS. A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LO WILL APPROACH FM THE W ERLY IN THE
PERIOD LEADING TO A GOOD CHANCE (50%) OF SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HOLD
ONTO 30-40% POPS INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS MODELS TEND TO BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE WITH THESE SYSTMS. THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE CUTOFF LO OPENS
UP/WEAKENS...WITH SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO HINT AT CSTL LO
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK. WILL BE ABLE
TO FINE-TUNE THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW WILL
FORECAST 30% POPS SUN AND MON. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO AVG
IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS RUNNING THRU THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
11 PM UPDATE...UPDATED MOST OF THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD PCPN THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPO TSTMS STILL IN FCST
AT PHF AND SBY. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT ORF WILL MISS
MOST OF THE PCPN BUT ADDED TEMPO SHRA THERE FROM 05-08Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS MARYLAND TO SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND THROUGH THE TAF SITES ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INLAND AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL
DISSIPATE LATE IN THE EVENING...AFFECTING RIC AND SBY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH PHF WITH TS NOT FAR TO THE N/W. MOS
FORECASTS SUPPORT IFR AT RIC DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR NOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND
CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PORTIONS. RAIN AND SCT
TSTMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. FOR NOW HAVE IFR AT SBY AND MVFR AT PHF AND
RIC. MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO LOWER CIGS BELOW
VFR AT ORF AND ECG THROUGH 00Z.

OUTLOOK...ONSHORE NE FLOW TUE NIGHT INTO THU AND MOIST AIRMASS
SHOULD LEAD TO UNSETTLED/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND PERIODIC MVFR
TO MARGINAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA FOR THE BAY UNTIL 1 AM WITH THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVING THROUGH. OUTSIDE CONVECTION...WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 05Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE BAY THRU 10 PM FOR 15-20 KT SLY
WINDS. THIS WILL BE MARGINAL BUT EXPECTING AT LEAST A FEW HRS OF
FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 20 KT LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENG. A COLD FRNT
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WTRS TNGT INTO TUE WITH WINDS RELAXING A
BIT AS THE FRNT NEARS THE REGION. S WINDS TNGT WILL SHIFT TO THE W
THEN N/NW BY LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT BEHIND THE FRNT. ATTM HAVE CAPPED
WINDS JUST BLO SCA THRESHOLDS OVER THE BAY BUT COULD SEE SOME
WINDS UP TO 15-20 KT DUE TO THE STRONG HI TO THE N. SIMILAR WINDS
INTO TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH THE HI TO THE N. SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT
OVER NRN WTRS BY WED...BUT WILL BE MAINLY 3-4 FT ELSEWHERE. PRES
GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT INTO THU AND FRI ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING
MARINE CONDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/TMG
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA


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