Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300200
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1000 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERWENIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SFC HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE OVRNGT...RESULTING IN SE OR S FLO
AND INCREASING DEWPTS ACRS THE REGION. UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...A BIT MORE HUMIDITY RETURNS WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 60S TO ARND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEXT BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY ON TUESDAY... DIGGING THE UPPER TROUGH FARTHER SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS. MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH WILL PUSH
FARTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME
S-SW, WHICH WILL BRING A GRADUAL RAMP UP OF TEMPERATURES AND LLVL
MOISTURE (HUMIDITY) THROUGH MIDWEEK.

SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TOMORROW. MEANWHILE, AFOREMENTIONED NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE BASE OF THE MISS VLY TROUGH AND PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW EVENING/EARLY WEDNESDAY. STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A QUICK RAMP UP IN RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING, WITH SCT SHRAS/TSTMS PUSHING TOWARD THE I-95
CORRIDOR OVER TO THE EASTERN SHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED
UPWARD TREND TO POP DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH 30-40% ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST, TAPERING BACK TO 20% OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH
THE SE COASTAL PLAIN REMOVED FROM BEST FORCING WELL TO THE NORTHWEST.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN GETS HUNG UP JUST TO OUR NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY ARCHING SOUTH AND BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD INTO LATE WEEK. UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIDE W-NW ALOFT AND INTERMITTENTLY DROP INTO THE
AREA. PINPOINTING THE EXACT TIMING WITH THESE FEATURES WILL BE
RATHER DIFFICULT AT BEST, ESPECIALLY GIVEN REMNANT CONVECTION FROM
TUESDAY`S STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY DEPICTED BY THE NAM FAMILY BY WEDNESDAY AFTN. THUS, AS
WE`LL LIKELY SEE PCPN SPILLING INTO NON-DIURNAL TIME PERIOD, TRIED
TO KEEP POP SIMPLE BOTH WED/THU W/ESSENTIALLY A CLIMO POP ON
WEDNESDAY AND ABOVE CLIMO ON THURSDAY AS FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST...TO LOWER 90S
INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...SLIGHTLY "COOLER"/MORE HUMID ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. EARLY MORNING LOWS EACH DAY
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SEEN THRU THE PERIOD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BECOMES STALLED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEVERAL S/W`S DROPPING SE
IN THE OVERALL NW FLOW. TIMING OF ANY S/W (OR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX)
RATHER PROBLEMATIC ATTM...SO WILL CARRY THE POPS THROUGH THE 12
HOUR PERIOD VERSUS TRYING TO GO WITH A MORE DIURNAL PATTERN. FRI
LOOKS THE WETTEST SO WILL CAP POPS AT 50% ATTM. BASICALLY 30-40%
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT SUNDAY WHERE THE LATEST DATA IS
HINTING AT A SOMEWHAT DRIER DAY (20-30 POP).

TEMPS COOLEST FRI GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE AND PCPN CHCS.
HIGHS IN THE 80S. BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...BUT MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THE WARM
FRONT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE FA PLACING REGION IN A
MORE HUMID AIRMASS. THUS...HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE M80S-L90S.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT U60S-L70S. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL BE
LGT SE TONIGHT AND S/SW WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS ON TUESDAY.
SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE OVERHEAD. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAY OCCUR
NRN PORTIONS ON TUESDAY AFTN. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW
WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING...MAINLY AT RIC AND
SBY.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL. THERE
WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING RESULTS IN THE
SE WINDS INCRG A BIT (10-15 KTS)...BUT STAYING BELOW SCA LEVELS.
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPRCHG TROF RESULTS IN THE
WINDS INCRG INTO MINIMAL SCA RANGE TUE AFTN AND NIGHT...THUS HAVE
RAISED A SCA FOR THEN. CSTL WTRS WINDS INCRG INTO THE 15-20 KT
RANGE AS WELL...BUT THE SEAS XPCTD TO AVGG 2-4 FT SO NO HEADLINES
THERE ATTM.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W BY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
STALLS OVER THE REGION. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS 2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/MAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AJZ/LSA
MARINE...MPR/LSA



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