Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 311259
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
859 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Number 8 lingers offshore today and will push
farther out to sea tonight into Thursday. A cold front will cross
the Mid Atlantic states on Thursday. Another tropical
system...Tropical depression 9...will lift northeast along the
Southeast coast Friday and Saturday...before pushing farther
offshore late in the upcoming holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Quick update to drop the fog and account for the one lone shwr
moving east across Caroline cnty. Otw...lee trof to trigger some
diurnal convection across the mts then drifts se across nern most
cntys. Can not rule isltd convection along sea breeze bndrys as
well. Highs upr 80s to lwr 90s.

PVS DSCN:
Latest surface analysis shows weak hi pressure over the Mid
Atlantic with Tropical Depression #8 70 miles southeast of Cape
Hatteras. This system is expected to become Tropical Storm Hermine
as it slides NE today, staying offshore. With the local area
remaining west of the storm track expect little to no impact other
than a small chance of rain this aftn/tonight near the coast and
moderate/high rip current risks (see tides/coastal flooding
section below). As for temps, expect highs averaging in the upr
80s to lwr 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The aforementioned tropical system will be farther offshore by
tonight as a cold front will be approaching from the NW. That
front is progged to push through the area Thu. Will have 40 to 50%
POPS most areas by Thu aftn, lingering the POPS across the south
into Thu night. Highs near 90 F S to mid 80s N. Drier and cooler
Fri with highs in the lower 80s (some clouds/precip may linger
across southern VA and ne NC as the front stalls so will maintain
a 20-30% POP there).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
While some significant differences remain, 00z/31 deterministic
models beginning to converge with respect to their handling of
TD9. This system is expected to slide NE along the departing cold
front along the SE coast before pushing well offshore of the VA/NC
coast by Sat night and Sunday. With the official NHC track now
shifted slightly to the west, have nudged pops into chance range
over SE coast. Latest track would favor keeping heaviest rainfall
just to our southeast. However, there is increasing confidence
that some tropical shras will push across our SE VA/NE NC zones
Friday afternoon and night into Saturday midday. Also have
potential for 30-40mph along immediate coastal zones on Saturday.
Could also see some gusts inland with sharp pres gradient between
the TD9 /potentially T.S. Hermine at that time/ and building
surface ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Areas of LIFR/IFR this morning due to fog/low stratus from
radiational cooling and a moist boundary layer. LAMP guidance
is the most aggressive with the coverage, and expect the low
vsbys/cigs to continue at KSBY/KPHF/KECG through mid morning,
with VFR at KRIC/KORF. After dry weather today, a somewhat higher
chance for shras/tstms arrives Thu aftn/evening as a cold front
pushes through the area. Friday into Sat generally looks dry,
although the track of TD9 may be close enough to produce rain over
coastal areas.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs reflect E-NE flow aob 10 kt across the waters this
morning. Seas remain choppy...a combination of fresh swell from
Gaston with some shorter period wind wave (6-9 seconds) over the
southern zones. However, seas have subsided a bit...and therefore
lowered SCA this morning, as seas have dropped below 5ft area
wide this morning. Good agreement w/WaveWatch and NWPS that seas
remain in the 3-4 ft range through the day, w/ waves generally
2-3 ft on the Bay and Sound. Winds remain east 10-15kt, strongest
through early afternoon before diminishing late, w/winds veering
around to the E-SE this evening.

Winds become W-SW late tonight ahead of an approaching cold
front, with that front to drop across the waters Thu morning
through Thu night. Winds gradually veer around to the w-nw from
north to south Thursday and Thursday night, eventually becoming
NNE by early Friday morning. Majority of Hi-res models now support
a brief window of SCA winds late Thu night into Friday morning
(mainly southern bay and coastal zones). Seas progged to build up
to 4-5ft south of the VA/NC border during this period by Wavewatch
Thu night.

Looking towards the weekend, models are beginning to converge a bit
with respect to handling of TD 9. 00z/31 Models have come
slightly west with the track of the system, generally sliding NE
along the departing frontal boundary friday through Saturday
night. The potential for a period of at least strong SCA winds is
increasing, mainly for friday evening and early Saturday. Have
nudged Seas and winds up a bit into strong SCA range, mainly for
central and southern Coastal Waters. Mariners should continue to
monitor the progress of the forecast in the coming days. It is
possible that winds/seas may need to be adjusted a bit higher as
forecast confidence (hopefully) gradually improves.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Have maintained a high risk for rip currents over Virginia Beach
and Northern OBX due to long period swell, 3-4 ft nearshore
waves, and favorable swell direction. Moderate risk for rip
currents continues for the northern beaches.

Given the latest track on TD9, expect increased Rip Risk will
continue over area beaches through the Holiday weekend. Have added
a mention to the HWO. Also, risk for areas of minor coastal
flooding/erosion (mainly lower Bay and along the Atlantic Coastal
zones) has increased for later Saturday and Sunday. Will continue
to monitor as forecast track information evolves over the next
24-36 hours.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Has been a rather hot and dry month of August over much of the
area (quite a contrast to a summer that began very wet).

Current Data Through 8/29:

*           Average Temperature
* RIC: 80.3/ would rank as 7th warmest (warmest is 82.9 in 1900)
* ORF: 81.4/ would rank as 2nd warmest (warmest is 81.9 in 1900)
* SBY: 78.7/ would rank as 5th warmest (warmest is 80.3 in 1978)

Based on forecast temperatures for today and tomorrow these
rankings will likely stay as is. Richmond has only received 0.53"
of rain for the month (if this stands (and it probably will) it
will rank as the 3rd driest on record).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...



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