Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041841
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
241 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL SLOWLY BUILD
SOUTH TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY WARM/HUMID CONDS CONT ATTM. ISOLD/SCT SHRAS-TSTMS FOUND
INLAND AS XPCD...AND XPCD TO CONT INTO THIS EVE. OTRW...VRB CLDS
INLAND TO MOSTLY SKC AT THE CST THIS EVE. BRIEF GUSTY WNDS AND
LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS PSBL W/ ANY STMS.

BACKDOOR CDFNT PUSHING S FM SRN NEW ENG THIS AFTN. THAT FNT WILL
CONT TO PUSH SSE THROUGH TNGT...RESULTING IN INCRSG NE WNDS (GUSTY
TO 25 MPH...ESP NR THE CST) ALONG W/ DEVELOPMENT OF BKN-OVC LO
LVL CLDNS. WILL HANG ONTO MOST POPS 20-30% OVRNGT FOR SHRAS. LO
TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WX LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED OVR (MOST OF) THE FA THIS WKND AS SFC HI
PRES SLOLY BUILDS SE THROUGH NEW ENG...THEN OFF THE NE CONUS CST
(BY SUN). NE WNDS WILL RMN GUSTY (TO 25-30 MPH) NR THE CST ON SAT
BEFORE WANING INTO SUN. COMPOUNDING THE UNCERTAINTY WRT CLDS AND
PCPN CHCS WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF WK LO PRES INVOF SE CONUS CST.
COOLER...BUT RMNG HUMID THIS WKND AS DRIER AIR FM THE NNE HAS
DIFFICULTY PUSHING TOO FAR S INTO THE FA. BEST SHOT AT THAT WILL
BE OVR NE COUNTIES DURING THE WKND...W/ WK MID LVL DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE INLAND INVOF SRN/SE VA AND NE NC RESULTING IN VRB CLDS-
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS AND ISOLD-SCT SHRAS (20-40%) BOTH DAYS.

BY MON...GRADUAL EROSION OF THE ONSHORE FLO XPCD...LEADING TO A
BETTER PROB FOR PARTLY CLOUDY/WARMER CONDS. WILL HANG ONTO 20-30%
IN SE VA/NE NC ON MON.

HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M-U70S AT THE CST TO L80S INLAND...THEN FM THE
U70S-L80S SUN...AND L-M80S MON. MOST LO TEMPS FM THE M60S TO ARND
70F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SUN NGT AND MON WITH SFC LO PRES
SPINNING OFF THE CAROLINA CST WITH HI PRES N AND W OF THE FA.
RESULTANT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE
MID 80S MON UNDER A PRTLY-MSTLY SKY. WITH THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FA
SUN NGT/MON. KEPT THUNDER OUT DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE
SFC LO WEAKENS AND STARTS SLIDING E TUE ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDS
AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID/UPR 80S UNDER A PRTLY CLOUDY
SKY. DRY WX CONTINUES MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS FURTHER INCREASING AS SLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT...WITH HI TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO NR 90 WED AND THUR. THE FRNT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISOLD TO SCT AFTN CONVECTION POPPING UP MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT RESULTING IN COOLER BUT STILL MOIST NE FLOW. PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE AND IFR/MVFR STATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...ADDED SCA FLAGS FOR CURRITUCK SOUND AND ALL OF ERN VA
RIVERS BEGINNING EARLY SAT MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTN/EVENING.

NE WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS
AFTN AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE NE STATES. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE THE REST OF TODAY OVER ALL WATERS...REACHING 15-20 KT
OVER THE NORTHERN OCEAN ZONES BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS INCREASE A
BIT MORE FRIDAY NIGHT SO THAT SCA`S WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THE
OCEAN/BAY/LOWER JAMES RIVER...WITH WAVES ON THE BAY BUILDING TO
3-4 FT AND SEAS REACHING 4-6 FT (HIGHEST NORTH). THE START TIME OF
THE SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS (SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES)
WAS PUSHED BACK ABOUT 12 HRS (TIL 7AM SAT) AS IT WILL TAKE THE
LONGEST FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO BE REALIZED THERE. ALL SCA`S WILL
THEN RUN THROUGH THE DAY SAT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SAT NIGHT FOR
MOST OF THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES SO THAT THE SCA`S CAN END. STILL
EXPECTING WAVES TO REMAIN AROUND 4FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS LINGERING AROUND 5 FT. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO START NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...BMD/JDM


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