Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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803
FXUS61 KALY 260904
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
404 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A colder and more seasonable air mass for late February will be
over the region today with blustery conditions and isolated to
scattered snow showers mainly north and west of the Capital Region.
High pressure will briefly build in from the mid Atlantic Region
tonight into Monday with moderating temperatures back to above
normal readings.  The next chance of rain and snow showers will be
Monday night into Tuesday with a warm front and low pressure moving
into the Midwest.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A Flood Watch remains in effect for the western Mohawk Valley,
the upper Hudson Region, the southern Adirondacks, Lake George
Saratoga region and southern Vermont until 7 pm today. See the
Hydrology section for details...

As of 404 AM EST...A secondary cold front and mid-level short-
wave are moving into western and central NY with isolated to
scattered snow showers mainly from the northern Catskills,
Capital Region and Berkshires north and west. This diffuse lake
effect activity and upslope snow showers will linger the longest
across the western Adirondacks...west-central Mohawk
Valley...and into the Schoharie Valley and northern Catskills.
Light snow accums are possible ranging from a few tenths of an
inch to an inch or so. Further east...the Lake George Saratoga
Region...Capital Region...and northern Taconics/Berkshires will
have little or no accums with perhaps some dustings. The
westerly upslope region of the southern Greens may get a dusting
to a half an inch.

Otherwise, in the strong cold advection in the wake of the
strong cold front yesterday, and this secondary front, expect
H850 temps to lower to -10C to -13C. It will be blustery and
cold with W/NW winds of 15 to 25 mph with some gusts in the
30-40 mph range. The strongest winds will be across the Mohawk
Valley/eastern Catskills/Great Capital Region/n-cntrl Taconics
and Berkshires due to funneling down the Mohawk Valley and
deeper mixing to 3-4 kft AGL based on the momentum transfer
profiles from the NAM/GFS in BUFKIT. It will be partly sunny by
the late morning into the afternoon from the Hudson River Valley
eastward, with more clouds than sun further west. The
directional shear and short-wave will disrupt any lake bands,
and we may actually see narrow multi-bands impact locations west
of our forecast area, as the boundary layer flow initially veers
late today.

Highs today will range from the upper 20s to mid 30s over the
mountains, and mid 30s to lower 40s in the valleys and across
the hills which is normal to slightly above normal for FEB.

Flood warnings continue in portions of the west-central Mohawk
Valley, southern Adirondacks, and the Upper Hudson Region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Tonight...High pressure ridges in from the Carolinas. The low-
level flow begins to back. A few lake effect snow
showers/flurries may clip the western Adirondacks early on.
Otherwise, we are expecting a quiet night with clearing skies
especially from the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region south and east.
The mid and upper level flow becomes zonal with heights rising.
Lows will be on the cold side with diminishing winds. Low to
mid 20s will be common over the most of the region, except for
some teens over the southern Adirondack park, southern Greens,
Berkshires, and parts of the Lake George Glens Falls area, and
the eastern Catskills.

Monday...Flat mid and upper level ridging will be building in
from off the NJ and New England Coast. A weak northern stream
disturbance will be moving north of the ST Lawrence River Valley
across southern Quebec and northern New England. Most of the
region should have a quiet day except for isolated to scattered
snow showers near the western Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley
in the morning with little or no accums. Low level warm
advection will be ongoing in the boundary layer with temps at
H850 getting back to -2C to -6C. High temps get back above
normal by around 10 degrees or so with upper 40s to lower 50s in
the valley areas and across the southern Taconics and NW CT.
Upper 30s to mid and upper 40s will be common across the hills
and mountains. The winds will increase from the west to
southwest at 10-20 mph with some gusts around 30-35 mph.

Mon night into Tuesday....Some timing differences between the
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEFS on the onset of warm advection pcpn ahead of
a warm front approaching from the south and west associated
with low pressure developing in the central MS River Valley and
moving into the Midwest by Tuesday. Clouds should be thickening
and lowering Mon night with a slight chc of light rain/snow
showers for portions of the region. Temps may fall off early
around midnight and slowly rise from mid 20s and lower/mid 30s.
The warm front begins to push north/northeast from PA and NJ
during the day for an increase chance of showers due to the
isentropic lift. High chc pops were used and we blended the
NAM/GFS/ECMWF for the timing. Highs temps will be in the 40s to
some lower 50s over the Capital District, mid Hudson Valley and
NW CT. These temps will still be mild for the last day of Feb
2017.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Active weather will persist through much of the long term period,
with a transition from zonal flow to a broad trough at upper levels,
and much colder temperatures by weeks` end.

The region will be under the influence of strong southerly flow and
ridging Tuesday night/Wednesday due to a warm front lifting through
Tuesday afternoon and a trough deepening in the plains. This frontal
passage will bring some rain showers to the region Tuesday night as
temperatures remain near steady or even warm throughout the night.
Within the warm sector, temperatures are expected to rise into the
50s/lower 60s Wednesday afternoon. Strong WAA and deep moisture
(PWATS around 1 inch), combined with passing embedded mid/upper
level waves will all contribute to periods of rain showers during
this time. The latest GEFS ensemble mean shows PWATS on Wednesday
are 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal which means there is the
potential for heavy rainfall. There should also be enough
instability present to trigger a few thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon with the cold frontal passage.

Behind the front, we will transition to a much colder air mass
Wednesday night/Thursday. Temperatures are expected to fall through
the day Thursday with the high temperature likely occurring at
midnight. Temperatures will start out in the 40s and 50s but fall
into the low teens to low 20s by Thursday night. 700 mb temperatures
from the latest GEFS are 2 to 3 standard deviations below normal for
the beginning of March. That being said, as cold air invades the
region behind the front, any lingering rainfall is expected to
change over to snow on Thursday, with perhaps up to a couple inches
of snow accumulation in the Adirondacks.

Another low pressure system skirts by the region to the south on
Friday with a slight chance for rain/snow showers. Temperatures will
be seasonable with afternoon highs reading the low 20s in the high
terrain and the mid to upper 30s across the valley locations. The
core of the upper trough will be over the Capital District Friday
night where we could see temperatures plummet to near zero in the
Adirondacks and into the single digits/teens elsewhere. Brisk winds
could lead to wind chills dropping into the -10 to -20 degree range
across the southern Adirondacks.

Lake effect snow could be possible on Friday night/Saturday for the
areas downwind of Lake Ontario as cold westerly/northwesterly flow
ensues.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The strong storm system that brought heavy rain, wind, thunder and
snow last evening has exited the region. In its wake, MVFR/VFR CIGS
are present, with some light and scattered rain/snow showers due to
a passing upper level shortwave. Expect MVFR to VFR CIGS through
early this morning with gradual improvement to VFR by dawn. The
remainder of the forecast period will remain VFR.

West to northwest winds will be generally 10 kts or less through
12Z, then become gusty up to 30 kts this afternoon, especially at
KALB/KPSF. KPSF may remain gusty this morning through 00Z/Mon. Winds
are then expected to slacken after sunset.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Chance of RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flood Watch in effect for the western Mohawk Valley, the upper
Hudson, the southern Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga region and
southern Vermont until 7 pm today. Runoff will result from a
combination of snow melt over the past few days and heavy
rainfall yesterday from showers and thunderstorms. Total
rainfall ranged from a half an inch to an inch and a half across
the hydro service area.

At this time minor flooding is occurring in parts of the west-
central Mohawk Valley, upper Hudson Valley and the southern
Adirondacks. We continue to monitor for additional flooding in
these areas this morning. Significant within bank rises of 1 to
4 feet occurred in the flood watch area at some points. The
sharpest rises were on the small streams. Generally, rises were
a foot or less outside the flood watch.

Drier and much colder air continues to filter in across the HSA
this morning with some lake effect snow showers across the
western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley. Strong west to
northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with stronger gusts will also
slow down the runoff late today.

The next chance of widespread rainfall will be Tuesday into
Wednesday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A daily record high temperatures was set yesterday at Albany
with 70 degrees breaking the old record of 67 degrees set in
1976.  Glens Falls reached their daily and monthly records
yesterday with 70 degrees. The old daily record for Feb 25th was
smashed, as it was 58 degrees set in 1984.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Flood Watch through this evening for NYZ032-033-038>043-
     082>084.
MA...None.
VT...Flood Watch through this evening for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JVM
HYDROLOGY...NAS/Wasula
CLIMATE...ALY Staff



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