Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 291039
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
639 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The first in a series of quick moving disturbances will approach the
region today, bringing periods of rain along with unseasonably cool
temperatures. More clouds and showers are likely Tuesday and
Wednesday, with thunderstorms also possible as additional upper
level disturbances move through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 635 AM EDT, the leading edge of rain extends from the
western Adirondacks, central Mohawk Valley and Capital Region
south to the mid Hudson Valley, and is slowly advancing
northeast. We expect rain to overspread most areas south of the
I-88/I-90 corridors by 8 AM, and between 8-10 AM to the north
and east. However, it may take a bit longer, perhaps closer to
10 AM or slightly later, across portions of the upper Hudson
Valley and southern VT.

Expect periods of rain, some moderate to briefly heavy at times
for several hours through early afternoon, before the rain
becomes more intermittent and lighter. The rain may taper to
just a few showers or some drizzle by late afternoon, especially
from the western Mohawk Valley southeast into the mid Hudson
Valley and NW CT, if not even further N and E.

Wet bulb cooling of the lower atmosphere once the steadier rain
develops should allow temperatures to fall into the 50s for most
areas by mid to late morning, with even some upper 40s possible
across some higher terrain of the Catskills and western New
England. Once the steadier rain tapers off later this afternoon,
there could be some slight rebound of temperatures, but still
should generally remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the
far western Mohawk Valley and Capital Region, with mainly
lower/mid 50s elsewhere.

It may be breezy at times this morning, especially across
portions of the Taconics, southern Green Mountains and
Berkshires, where a few gusts of 25-35 mph may occur. Some gusts
could also reach 25-30 mph in close proximity to the Capital
Region early this morning before the rain develops.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight, after the initial surge of QG forcing/isentropic lift
moves through today, there appears to be little in the way of
additional forcing through tonight. Will keep slight chance PoPs
in case some remnant convection from central/western NYS can
migrate eastward, and also for some patchy drizzle that may
develop. Otherwise, just isolated showers with mostly cloudy
skies expected. Lows should mainly fall into the lower/mid 50s.

Tuesday, another shortwave is expected to approach in the
afternoon/evening. Models suggest some destabilization across
central/western NYS in the afternoon, with perhaps some
instability developing across the western Mohawk
Valley/Adirondacks and eastern Catskills/Schoharie Valley if a
few breaks in the clouds develop. There will be increasing 0-6
km bulk shear potentially exceeding 50 kt, esp across western
areas by later in the day, so if some convection migrates into
western areas, some gusty winds may occur. Latest SPC Day 2
Outlooks has the region in a Marginal Risk for severe wind gusts
with convection late Tuesday afternoon/evening, but remains
highly conditional on how much destabilization, from any breaks
in the clouds that develop, late in the day. Current forecast
highs are mainly in the 60s, except approaching 70 across the
far western Mohawk Valley and Schoharie Valley regions.

Tuesday night, remnant convection may still be ongoing across
the region through midnight, especially from the Capital Region
and points N and W. Convective trends should weaken through the
night, esp S and E of the Capital Region where a deeper stable
marine layer may reside. So, gradually decreasing chances for
showers/storms through the night, with lows mainly in the
lower/mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper impulse tracking around the southern periphery of broad
upper troughing in eastern North America is expected to support
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over our region.  Highs
Wednesday in the 70s but mid to upper 60s higher terrain.

There is a consensus in sources of guidance for weak flat upper
ridging between the exiting upper energy and an upper cut off low
dropping south out of eastern Canada on Thursday.  So there is the
potential for a generally dry day Thursday with highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s but around 60 to mid 60s higher terrain.

Decent consensus form sources of guidance for the upper cutoff to
continue dropping south through next weekend across northern NY and
New England with isolated to scattered showers Friday and Saturday
but increasing coverage of showers Sunday with a cold pool aloft.
Highs Friday through Sunday in the 70s but 60s higher terrain.  High
temperatures may drop a degree or two each day Friday through Sunday
as temperatures aloft cool a little with the closer proximity to the
upper low each day.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rain will overspread the TAF sites through 14Z/Mon. Periods of
moderate rain will be possible through around 18Z/Mon, before
decreasing in intensity and becoming more intermittent later
this afternoon. Expect VFR conditions to lower to MVFR, mainly
for Cigs, but also occasionally for Vsbys this morning through
this afternoon as the steadier rain moves through.

Later in the day, coverage of showers will become more
scattered but with continued MVFR conditions.

MVFR cigs are expected to continue into this evening, and may
lower to IFR levels later tonight, esp at KPSF.

Winds will be southeast around 5-10 kt through tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Numerous SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The first in a series of quick moving disturbances will approach the
region today, bringing periods of rain along with unseasonably cool
temperatures. More clouds and showers are likely Tuesday and
Wednesday, with thunderstorms also possible as additional upper
level disturbances move through the region.

Total rainfall amounts through Wednesday should range from one
half inch, to over one inch.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
An approaching system will bring periods of rain today, with
total QPF ranging from 0.50-1.00" expected. Highest amounts are
expected to be over the Mohawk Valley and Western Adirondacks.
Additional periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely
Tuesday and Wednesday, with basin average QPF likely remaining
less than an additional half inch Tuesday, and less than a
quarter inch Wednesday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The ASOS at the Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport in Glens Falls,
NY, Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA, and Harriman-and-West
Airport in North Adams, MA continue to experience outages with
hourly METARS occasionally or continuously missing. This will
persist until communications are fully restored.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/Thompson
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/Thompson
HYDROLOGY...KL/Thompson
EQUIPMENT...



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