Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 290242
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
942 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWED BY A
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION AS WE GO THROUGH OUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLEAR SKY WITH JUST SOME VERY THIN HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WITH THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD
TONIGHT AND THE WINDS TRENDING TO CALM...WITH FRESH SNOW
PACK...DROPPING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. FEW OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT IF ANY.

MOST AREAS SHOULD BE BELOW ZERO TO LOWER SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST 28/12Z MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY THURSDAY WILL BEGIN WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE REGION. AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED
OUT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO TEMPORARILY REBOUND TOWARD NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN TO NEAR
FREEZING ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH TWO SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAVES...ONE
ASSOCIATED TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE
OVER ALBERTA. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MERGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...A DEEPENING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A STRIP OF
500 HPA ABSOLUTE VORTICITY TO ENHANCE LOCAL MID LEVEL ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM OF THE VORTICITY LOBE AS IT BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL. WITH
THIS MORE FAVORABLE TILT OF MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SOME WEAK 850-700 HPA FGEN DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...A
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM SNOWFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...12Z NUMERICAL AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A RANGE OF QPF OF BETWEEN THREE TENTHS AND FIVE TENTHS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND SARATOGA REGION. TERRAIN INFLUENCE
WITH SOUTH TO SSE WINDS AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL FAVOR WINDWARD ASCENT
AND ENHANCEMENT OF QPF TOTALS ON SOUTH AND WEST FACING SLOPES.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MIGHT BE AT ADVISORY CRITERIA. NEXT SET OF MODEL
AND NUMERICAL DATA WILL HELP TO CONFIRM THIS THINKING BEFORE THE
ISSUING OF ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. LATEST MODE CONSENSUS SHOWS
THE CENTER OF THE ELONGATED SURFACE LOW MOVING RIGHT OVER THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO END FROM
WEST TO EAST AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT...A WIND
SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z FRIDAY AS
STRONG CAA WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE REGION. THE PEAK OF THE COLD
WEATHER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WE HEAD
TOWARD 12Z SATURDAY. H925 TEMPS AS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS RANGE
BETWEEN -20C AND -25C. THEREFORE LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE
COLD WITH VALUES NEAR ZERO AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST TO WELL BELOW ZERO FROM -5 TO -15 ACROSS AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. WITH BRISK NW WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH...WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED AND WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY PERSISTENT UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS COAST ON SATURDAY...GIVING
WAY TO LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP OVER THE NATION/S
MID-SECTION...AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO NEW
JERSEY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING IN
WESTERN CANADA WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY BEHIND IT...BUT A WESTERLY FLOW
INDUCED BY THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FETCH GREAT
LAKES MOISTURE TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND.  HOWEVER...THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD ENDING 00Z FRIDAY. SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
START TO INCREASE BY MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS EARLY THIS EVENING...BECOMING
VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH AROUND 3-7 KTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED. NO
LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM/NAS
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...LFM







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