Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 221501
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1101 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. FIRST SMALL ECHO IS
ON RADAR JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING FAST TODAY WITH ALBANY AIRPORT 78F AT 10 AM...WITH 80
CURRENTLY HERE ON ROOF. LATEST UPDATE INCLUDES NERFC QPF AND
WINDS BASED ON 12Z NAM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS NEXT 36 HOURS
BASED ON QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM







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