Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 300557
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
157 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS WERE RACING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL PUT THE CAP ON
LOW TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF THEM AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT IN MOST SPOTS.

PRECIPITATION (AT LEAST ON RADAR) WAS WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS
BUT SO FAR...ONLY A COUPLE OF STATIONS HAVE REPORTED ANYTHING
UPSTREAM AND IT HAS BEEN LIGHT AS IT IS WORKING AGAINST DRY AIR
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING VERY FAST TO THE
EAST. THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS FIRST
BATCH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL RACE THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH UNTIL LATER WHEN THE
COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD FORM
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL AND ELEVATION SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS...MID
20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS
SHOULD MEAN ANYTHING PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
ONE TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE...WITH NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE MONDAY PORTION
OF THE SHORT PERIOD ONLY...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS
DURING THE MORNING...BUT PRETTY LEFT THEM ALONE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY MEAN A FEW MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL

SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION...AND WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO 5 TO
10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8 TO
12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.
BY MID AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS


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