Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 241723
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
123 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and damp weather is expected today and Tuesday as low
pressure tracks across the area. By Wednesday, improvement is
expected with more seasonable temperatures for July and mostly
sunny skies. The next chance for wet weather arrives Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Area of steady rain has pulled east of the area. A weakening
band of showers is approaching the western part of the forecast
area. Stronger convection is ongoing across central NY.

For the most part a cool damp easterly flow dominates the
weather today. In this cool damp air mass, instability is nil.
Thus TSRA activity over central NY will wane as it reaches our
area. HRRR has been doing fairly well this morning depicting weakening
trend on activity. In general, HRRR shows coverage of shower
activity to be SCT at most. Will keep likely POPS going for band
of SHRA currently transiting northern portion of our region.

Have allowed for a chance of TSRA across western portion of the
CWA, with just SHRA to the east.

Not expecting much in the way of sunshine this afternoon. So,
current hi temp forecast looks good.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight through Tuesday, upper low will transverse eastern NY
into western NE where we will keep unsettled conditions into the
region. This will keep CHC-SCT PoPs across the entire region
with overall coverage of showers expected overnight Monday into
Tuesday morning as cold pool and differential vorticity
advection will be maximized. Now, timing of this wave is in good
agreement with the passage of the wave through the afternoon
hours. As subsidence increases, this should suppress additional
shower development during the mid and late afternoon hours.
Clouds may begin to break across the northern portions of the
region late in the day but overall a mostly cloudy day. With
these clouds, still expect temperatures to average below normal
as highs mainly into the 60s and overnight lows into the 50s and
lower 60s.

Tuesday night, ridge begins to build across the region. However,
moisture may become trapped below the subsidence inversion as we
will keep partly cloudy sky forecast for now. There could be
some patchy fog where skies do allow for some clearing along
with light winds as ground will likely remain moist.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Unsettled weather looks to return to the region for the late week
period, as a frontal system and associated upper level trough moves
towards the area from the Great Lakes.

Wednesday and Wednesday night should be mainly dry as a surface high
gradually moves through the region. The chance for showers and
thunderstorms look to increase for Thursday into Thursday night, as
a surface low develops just south of the Great Lakes along a cold
frontal boundary as it approaches from the northwest. With a humid
air mass in place ahead of the approaching boundary, some
thunderstorms will be possible, mainly during Thursday afternoon
into Thursday evening. Lows on Wed & Thurs night will mainly be in
the 60s with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 for Thursday.

The models are still in disagreement on the strength and track of
the surface low but it looks like showers could linger through
Friday evening as the surface low tracks through or near our area.
The surface low and associated showers look to exit late Friday
night, allowing for a dry but cool start to the weekend. Daytime
temps will generally be in the 70s and overnight lows will be in the
60s, along with a partly to mostly cloudy sky.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rainfall will continue through the morning hours as an upper
level trough pushes eastward. CIGS are expected to gradually
lower throughout the morning, with MVFR/IFR conditions
anticipated. Some improvement to VIS is possible this afternoon
after the main batch of rain moves out ~18Z. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will again be possible this afternoon and
evening so have included VCSH in the TAFS. Depending on how much
low level moisture is around tonight, fog will be possible. Some
low level wind shear is possible this morning at PSF, otherwise
winds will be mainly from the E-NE between 5 and 10 knots.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The area will receive a widespread rainfall through today with
chances for showers lingering through Tuesday as a low pressure
system approaches and gradually moves across the region. No fire
weather related concerns at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Period of rainfall will transverse the region as expecting QPF
amounts from 1 to 1 1/2 inches. Some locally heavy rainfall may
occur especially for areas west of the Hudson River Valley and
south of the Capital Region. Ponding of water on roadways would
occur with the heavier rainfall along with some minor flooding
of poor drainage and low lying areas possible. We will watch for
Catskills enhancement as southeast winds are expected to be in
place through this morning.

Fair weather is expected for the mid week with more chances for
rainfall Thursday and Friday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...SND/OKeefe
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Frugis/JVM
AVIATION...SND/JVM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM


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