Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 022041
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
441 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 435 PM EDT...A PLEASANT EARLY JULY AFTERNOON CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING HOURS...BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNSET.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT
WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
NOW EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE A COLD
POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
GENERALLY 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE TOPPED OUT FROM THE UPPER
60S TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...ALLOWING FOR A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEY
AREAS...THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS REGION...AND FAVORED AREAS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS RESULTED IN SCT-BKN CU BASES THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOVE 3000 FEET (THOUGH PRETTY CLOSE TO THAT THRESHOLD
AT KPSF). THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE ESPECIALLY AT KPSF...BUT NO
IMPACT EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NW TO N 5-10KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON BY TONIGHT AND WE LOOSE THE SURFACE
HEATING. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND ANY WIND
WILL BECOME LIGHT OR CALM.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP. IT
APPEARS THE "CROSSOVER" TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S. IT
LOOKS AS IF ONLY KGFL WILL DIP MUCH BELOW 50 TONIGHT SO WE DID
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF IFR FOG FORMING AT THAT STATION AFTER
08Z...LASTING UNTIL 11Z. AT KPSF...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 50...SO WE PLACED MVFR FOG AT THAT SITE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

THE OTHER TWO TAFS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 50 OVERNIGHT SO FOR
NOW...JUST USED SHALLOW FOG (MIFG) AT BOTH THESE TAF SITES BETWEEN
08Z-11Z.

AFTER 11Z...WE WILL HAVE A REALLY NICE AVIATION DAY FOR FLYING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...A LIGHT
NORTH WIND AROUND 5KTS AND FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING 4000-5000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL


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