Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 270507
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
107 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hazy, hot and humid conditions are forecast through Memorial Day
weekend. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected each afternoon and evening. Memorial Day may see the
greatest threat for more widespread showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1220 AM EDT...Most of the shower activity has diminished.
Yet our 00Z sounding shows ample dry air below H700 but still
some decent lapse rates in the mid layers. So we will lower PoPs
to slight chance for most of the region under a variable cloudy
sky. Temperatures remain quite mild for this time of the night with
mainly upper 60s to mid 70s across the region. Overnight lows
still look good at this time with readings expected to be in the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

Hazy, warm and humid conditions for Friday with the chance for
mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms as surface based CAPES
climb between 1-2k j/kg yet weak forcing remains. Highs expected
to be in the upper 70s to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A ridge at the surface and aloft is forecast to strengthen over
the region through Saturday. Warm, moist air will continue to flow
into the region from the Ohio Valley. The strengthening ridge
aloft will provide general subsidence and fair weather. With
increasing low level moisture, the threat of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will increase although they should remain isolated
to scattered due to the lack of a coherent focusing mechanism.
Basically, summer-like weather expected, with hazy, hot and humid
conditions. Lows through the period in the 50s and 60s withs highs
in the 80s to around 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The period starts out on Sunday with an upper level ridge remaining
anchored over the region extending from the western Atlantic
northwestward into the northeast CONUS. Models still indicating
convection initiating during the late morning/early afternoon,
generally due to a moist and unstable air mass in place with little
discernible forcing. Will mention scattered thunderstorms across the
region, but not everyone will see storms. Thunderstorms should
remain below severe levels with weak shear under the ridge, although
will have to watch for how much CAPE can develop. Some stronger
storms with brief gusty winds, downpours, and frequent lightning
will be possible. It will be another very warm and humid day, with
highs well into the 80s for most of the area.

Despite loss of daytime heating, will continue to mention chance
pops for showers/t-storms Sunday night as the upper level ridge
starts to flatten out as a trough approaches from the Great Lakes.
Monday looks to be the day with the best chance of more widespread
showers/t-storms, as the upper trough and its associated cold front
cross the region. The cold front and associated convection should
clear the area sometime during the evening.

Quieter weather is expected for Tuesday, with slightly cooler and
less humid conditions. An isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out
with a weak trough moving through. Tuesday night through Thursday
looks to be a dry and less humid period with high pressure centered
in Quebec providing a cooler and drier northerly flow. The ECMWF and
GFS indicating a possible tropical system that may affect the
Carolinas to remain well south of our region through next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure building off the eastern seaboard will allow a warm
and increasingly humid air mass to envelope the region through
Friday.

Through daybreak, mainly VFR conditions are expected, with SCT-
BKN mid level clouds. However, some patchy MVFR visibilities could
occur, especially at KGFL. Also, a few passing showers could
occur.

After daybreak, mainly VFR conditions should prevail. However,
isolated showers/thunderstorms will develop this afternoon. At
this time, it appears the best chance will be mainly across
elevated terrain areas east and west of the TAF sites. Due to
overall low probability of any showers/thunderstorms affecting a
TAF site, have not included any mention at this time.

After sunset, VFR conditions are expected, although some MVFR
visibilities could develop toward and especially after
06Z/Saturday.

Light/variable winds are expected through daybreak, except south
at 5-10 KT at KALB. Then, expect south to southwest winds for much
of Friday at 5-10 KT, with some gusts of up to 15-20 KT possible,
especially at KGFL and KALB. South to southwest winds should
become light/variable once again Friday evening.

Outlook...
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Memorial Day: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The season`s first Bermuda high will take control of our weather
lasting at least into the Memorial Day weekend.

Expect warm, increasingly humid weather and continued chances for
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

Each night will see RH values in the 75-100 percent, and RH
values will generally stay above 30 percent each of the next
several afternoon, generally in the moderate range.

Expect daytime winds from the southeast to southwest at 5 to 15
MPH. Winds at night will diminish to 2 to 7 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Forecast precipitation over the next week is expected to be highly
variable as much of it will come from thunderstorms. NWS WPC
forecasts between one half inch and two inches of rain during the
next week, with the highest amounts over the southern Adirondacks
and the least over litchfield County, CT. Widespread river
flooding is not expected, but localized urban or poor drainage
flooding is possible where heavier downpours from thunderstorms
occur.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SND
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM/11
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND



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