Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 291046
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
646 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will settle south of our region early
this morning. A low pressure system is then forecast to track
along the front from the mid Atlantic states northeastward to just
south of Cape Cod today. This system could bring some much needed
rainfall to parts of the region, especially south and east of
Albany.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 620 AM EDT...Low pressure was located just south of Long
Island and starting to move away from the region. The rainfall was
moving away as well with just the extreme southeast portion of the
forecast area still receiving rainfall. Temperature early this
morning were in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

For Today...Expect dry conditions across the northwestern half of
the forecast area with mostly cloudy skies this morning giving
way to partly sunny skies this afternoon. Across the southeastern
half of the forecast area expect mostly cloudy skies with a
slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. There will be
considerable cloudiness across the southeastern two thirds of the
region today which will limit temperatures. Thus temperatures will
be much lower than the last several days. Highs today will range
from the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight into the first half of Saturday...Expect generally dry
conditions as a weak ridge of high pressure builds across the
region. Lows tonight will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

By Saturday afternoon there will be the chance of showers across
the eastern Catskills as a wave of low pressure starts to move
eastward from the Ohio Valley. Expect highs on Saturday to be in
the mid 70s to mid 80s with increasing clouds during the
afternoon. On Sunday the low pressure system will be moving across
Pennsylvania and pass south of Long Island Sunday night. This will
bringing more clouds, along with showers and thunderstorms back
into our region. At this time it looks as though much of Saturday
night and Sunday will be wet with some much needed rainfall across
the region. The showers may taper off Sunday night. Expect lows
Saturday night to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s with highs on
Sunday in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Lows Sunday night will be in
the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper level trough will continue some scattered showers and
thunderstorms to start the week...but high pressure will build in by
Tuesday with fair and dry weather through the mid week.

Mon-Mon night...Low pressure passes east of Long Island and Cape Cod
in the morning.  A positively tilted long wave trough will be over
the Northeast and Mid Atlantic Region.  The trough with a short-wave
moving through will focus scattered showers and isold-sct
thunderstorms.  Despite dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid
60s...heating will be limited...so only small amounts of instability
are expected.  Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 70s in
the valley areas...and upper 60s to lower 70s over the mtns.  The
trough axis will gradually shift downstream over New England with
the showers diminishing.  Lows will fall back into the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

Tue-Tue night...The upper level trough axis lingers near
central/eastern New England.  Another vort max moves through the
trough to focus some isolated showers...especially across the higher
terrain of western New England.  The showers should be tied to the
diurnal heating.  At the sfc...an anticyclone continues to build in
from the eastern Great Lakes over NY and New England.  Sunshine will
mix with clouds.  Highs will nudge closer to normal with upper 70s
to lower 80s in the major valleys...and lower to mid 70s over the
hills and mtns.  Decreasing clouds Tue night with light winds should
allow for decent radiational cooling...and lows once again in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

Wed-Thu...the medium range deterministic...ensembles...and WPC
guidance all indicate mid and upper level heights will start rising
by the mid-week over southeast Canada and the Northeast.  Temps will
start to rise above normal for early AUG.  Sfc high pressure moves
over NY and PA by WED...then drifts offshore by THU.  H850 temps
rise back to +15C to +18C by THU.  HighS will trend back into the
mid 80s to lower 90s by THU in the valleys...and over the
hilltowns...and upper 70s to lower 80s over the mtns. Humidity
levels will not be oppressive...but seasonable for the close of the
first week of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure continues to move along a stationary front near southern
New England this morning. The front will slowly move southward
this afternoon with high pressure gradually ridging in from
southeastern Canada.

The rainshield associated with the low pressure system is shifting
east of southern NY and sw New England. MVFR/IFR conditions at
KPOU/KPSF will likely linger until at least 15Z. KPSF may take
until noontime for the CIGS to get back the VFR levels. Further
north and west towards KALB/KGFL VFR conditions will return in the
late morning with just some isolated showers popping up and VCSH
groups were used.

In the afternoon...VFR conditions will return everywhere. Mid and
high cloudiness will linger through the afternoon. High clouds
will likely remain at all the TAF sites into the evening with the
boundary still close to the region. Some patchy MVFR/IFR mist may
form after 04Z/SAT at KPSF/KGFL/KPOU...and have been included the
the TAFS with IFR most likely at KPSF/KGFL.

The winds will be light and variable in direction this morning...and
then increase from the north to northeast at 4-8 kts by the
afternoon. Expect the winds to become calm again early this
evening.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak frontal boundary will settle south of our region early
this morning. A low pressure system is then forecast to track
along the front from the mid Atlantic states northeastward to just
south of Cape Cod today. This system could bring some much needed
rainfall to parts of the region, especially south and east of
Albany.

Relative humidity values will drop to 50 to 70 percent this
afternoon, recover to 85 to 95 percent tonight, and drop to 40 to
65 percent on Saturday.

Winds will be north to northeast at less than 10 mph today through
Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Much of the region is currently running 3 to 8 inches below normal
on annual rainfall. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, much of
the area is considered abnormally dry (category D0), and parts of
the Catskills and western New England are within a moderate drought
(category D1).

A widespread rainfall is expected across the southeastern two
thirds of the HSA today, although model guidance continues to be
unclear on the exact timing, amounts and duration of the rain.
This rainfall is much needed, as river and stream flows are below
normal across much of eastern New York and western New England.
The best chance for a soaking rain looks to be across the
southeast portion of the area, from the mid Hudson Valley and
Taconics, eastward to the Berkshires and Litchfield Hills.
Areas from the eastern Catskills through the mid Hudson Valley
could see up to 2 inches of rain through today. Elsewhere in the
HSA, an inch or less of rainfall is expected.

Dry weather returns for late Friday night through Saturday, with the
next chance of showers and thunderstorms arriving late Saturday
night into Sunday with the chances for showers and thunderstorms
lingering into early next week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS


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