Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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362
FXUS61 KALY 222109
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
409 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will gather strength in the southeast U.S tonight,
before emerging off the mid Atlantic coast by Monday. This
system looks to bring significant precipitation to much of the
region from Monday through Tuesday. Colder air will filter in
tonight, which will result in the potential for snow, sleet,
freezing rain or rain. The best chance for accumulating snow and
ice will be from around the Capital District northward. Gusty
easterly wind will also occur as the coastal storm continues to
strengthen just south of New York City Monday night into
Tuesday. The storm will finally pull away from the region
Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
For tonight...Low pressure will move slowly east from the
Tennessee Valley as High pressure remains banked across the
Canadian Maritimes. A cold front that was dropping south towards
the region has weakened, however this may be the impetus for
some spotty light precipitation overnight which may be in the
form of light sleet or freezing rain late tonight mainly
across the higher terrain either side of the Hudson River
Valley. Since the precipitation will be light and we only have
chance pops in these areas will issue a SPS to cover this
occurrence. It will be cloudy overnight across the remainder of
the forecast area with little in the way of precipitation
expected. Lows overnight are expected to range from the mid 20s
to mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A wind advisory is in effect for the Taconics and western New
England from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM Tuesday.

A winter weather advisory is in effect for areas from the Mohawk
Valley to the Berkshires south from 1 PM Monday to 7 PM Tuesday.

A winter weather advisory is in effect for the southern
Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga Region and southern Vermont
from 7 PM Monday until 10 PM on Tuesday.

A complex storm system will impact the region mainly later
Monday morning through Tuesday evening. The difficulty in the
forecast lies with what pcpn type will be predominant and where
it will fall and when. Some of the partial thickness values and
BUFKIT model soundings are indicating that a prolonged period of
sleet may occur from late Monday morning through much of the
day on Tuesday. Where some other guidance such as the SREF pcpn
type probabilities are showing some freezing rain especially
across the mountains. The surface low tracks east from western
North Carolina Monday morning to east of Cape Hatteras Monday
evening and then northeast to south of Long Island Tuesday
morning and into the Canadian Maritimes Wednesday morning as the
upper low and trough axis swing through the region late Tuesday
providing additional QPF. The best way to sum up what is
expected to happen is by highlighting the periods of heaviest
precipitation which will be from Monday afternoon through Monday
night and the expected pcpn type and accumulations with mainly
a snow and ice event across the northern mountains with light
accumulation in the valleys. Valley areas can expect generally 1
to 3 inches of accumulation of mainly sleet with little ice
accretion, while the mountains can generally expect 2 to 6
inches of snow and sleet accumulation with a tenth of an inch or
so of ice. The higher terrain of southern Vermont may see up to
a quarter of an inch of ice while the western Adirondacks may
see up to 8 inches of snow and sleet accumulation. The
precipitation will diminish quickly Tuesday evening with
decreasing clouds overnight. One other potential problem will
be the strong southeast winds Monday into Monday night mainly
across the Taconics and western New England with wind gusts of
45 kts possible. The

Highs on Monday will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s with lows
Monday night in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Highs on Tuesday will be
in the 30s to around 40 with lows Tuesday night in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Low pressure races from Chicagoland up through the Great Lakes and
southern Quebec Wednesday and Wednesday night.  The cold front
associated with it will rush through Wednesday night with scattered
showers of mixed precipitation which will taper off as snow showers
and flurries at most locations.  This will set the stage for lake
effect conditions that will persist through the remainder of the
period.

A broad moisture pattern at first will allow for lake effect to
affect locations outside of the usual lake-effect-prone areas.
However...amounts will be mainly light...and probably not be all
snow.  By Saturday the activity will become more confined yet less
concerning...with the entire Hudson Valley free of any threat by
Sunday.  The pattern will keep skies mostly cloudy throughout...with
little more than occasional breaks from time-to-time.

Temperatures will continue to run well above normal but with a
cooling trend.  Highs on Wednesday will range from the mid 30s to
mid 40s...but will be in only the lower 20s to upper 30s Saturday
and Sunday.  Overnight lows will range from mainly the upper 20s to
mid 30s Wednesday night...to the mid teens to lower 20s by Saturday
night.  Albany`s normal high temperature for late January is in the
lower 30s...with the low in the mid teens.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front has become stationary over northern NY and western
New England. Scattered showers continue in the KALB-KPSF
northward corridor near the boundary. Some ridging may build in
from the south in the mid afternoon with some clearing seen
towards KPOU on the visible satellite picture...but with the
boundary near the east-cntrl NY and western New England corridor
we are expecting an extending period of MVFR and IFR conditions
into tomorrow.

IFR conditions continue at KALB/KGFL/KPSF in terms of CIGS and
brief reductions with the showers with VSBYS. There should be a
period of MVFR CIGS in the 1-2.5 KFT AGL range at all the sites
towards 00Z/MON as the boundary begins to drift back to the
north/northeast. KPOU will likely have a period of VFR CIGS
around 4 kft AGL...before MVFR stratus moves back in tonight.
The latest NAM/GFS model soundings continue to show plenty of
moisture trapped beneath an inversion ahead of the storm system
tomorrow. There maybe some spotty light showers of mixed pcpn
around overnight especially near KPSF. We have kept some VCSH
groups in there. The best chance of IFR CIGS after 06Z will be
at KPSF too.

The CIGS/VSBYS will be generally be in the low MVFR range in the
1-2 kft AGL range after 12Z/MON with the initial burst of warm
advection pcpn impacting KPOU towards the end of this TAF cycle.
For now have kept a VCSH group in, as strengthening downsloping
low-level easterlies may erode initial surge pcpn. Low
confidence forecast here.

The winds will be north to northeast at 3 to 7 kts this
afternoon into early this evening, and then will veer to the
east to northeast at 4-8 kts after 06Z...and continue through
12Z/MON. Low-level wind shear groups were added to KPSF
starting at 06Z/MON...and continue through the end of the TAF
cycle, as the 2 kft AGL winds increase to 40-45 kts. Additional
LLWS groups may be needed with later TAF issuances.

Outlook...

Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy Definite RA...SN.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy Definite RA...SLEET.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN...RA...SN.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA...SN.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread precipitation will occur from Monday through
Tuesday, but there are still questions regarding the exact
precipitation type and amounts. The latest MMEFS only shows
potential for some minor tidal flooding at Poughkeepsie.
Otherwise, just within bank river rises are expected to occur,
as frozen precipitation will cut back on runoff potential.

Gradual cooling will occur through the rest of the week, with
chances for rain and/or snow showers through Thursday, and snow
showers from Friday into next weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday
     for CTZ001-013.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for CTZ001-
     013.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday
     for NYZ038>040-047>054-058>061-063>066.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ054-
     061-066.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 10 PM EST Tuesday
     for NYZ032-033-041>043-082>084.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday
     for MAZ001-025.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ001-
     025.
VT...Wind Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
     VTZ013>015.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 10 PM EST Tuesday
     for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...Wasula
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV



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