Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 060904
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
404 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL REMAIN INTO TONIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW HAS WEAKENED TO BECOME LIGHT AND SHIFTED TO THE WEST.
UPSTREAM WINDS HAVE GONE SW. WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MOST OF THE
LES IS JUST FLURRIES WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE LES WILL WEAKEN THE
REST OF THE MORNING AND DIE AROUND SUNRISE IN THE SYR AND RME
AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL ALSO SQUASH THE
LES. THIS HIGH WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH CLOUDS COME IN
LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TONIGHT AS MOISTURE COMES IN
ALOFT. THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE SE AS A SFC LOW DROPS SE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. WARM FRONTAL MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FAR NORTH LATE TONIGHT. MAYBE A SNOW SHOWER IN THE TUG AROUND
SUNRISE.

THE LOW AND SW TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH SE ONTARIO AND
NE NY SAT EVE GIVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SAT AFTN AND
EVE IN CENT NY. WITH THE SW LL WINDS THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE NE DUE TO THE UPSLOPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THEN THE ADDED LAKE MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT. GIVEN THE
MOISTURE SOURCE AND THE DURATION OF THE EVENT MAX SNOW AMOUNTS SAT
AND SAT NGT WILL ONLY BE 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NE QUARTER OF CWA.
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO THE SW WITH AN INCH ALONG THE NY PA BORDER TO
NEARLY ZERO IN THE FAR SOUTH.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR
FREEZING THEN STAY UP WITH THE CLOUDS AND MIXING SAT NGT. CAA IS
WEAK WITH THE FRONT AND REMAINS STEADY THROUGH SUN NGT. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY EVEN WARMER AND IN 30S DESPITE THE COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT MULTIPLE WAVES ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS GO THROUGH KEEPING SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING MAINLY IN CENT
NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILDER WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG RANGE AS THE
BROAD TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWS TAKING TRACKS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING
IN A WARMER WESTERLY FLOW. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT, A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NY, BEFORE DEPARTING
EARLY MONDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED
WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS BUT IN ANY EVENT A COUPLE TO AT MOST A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO AT THIS
TIME. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM EXPECT FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF MONDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS AS HIGHS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
FOLLOWING THIS FIRST SYSTEM THE NEXT LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP
SHIELD ARE PROGGED TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH. AS A RESULT, EXPECT
HIGHS TUESDAY RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

MILDER AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN AT SOME POINT TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT, A WEEK OUT, FORECAST MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
FOR KRME...RESIDUAL LAKE MOISTURE WILL YIELD VERY LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR-
IFR VIS AT TIMES 06Z-08Z...OTHERWISE LOOKING AT A VERY QUIET TAF
PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. VERY LIGHT NON-
RESTRICTIVE FLAKES ALSO TO OCCUR AT KSYR FOR A TIME BEFORE DAWN.
VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...THOUGH STARTING ABOUT 22Z
ONWARD A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS 20-25 KFT AGL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. WINDS EITHER VARIABLE OR LIGHT NW TO SW LESS THAN 10 KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT...VFR.

SAT-SUN-MON...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM IN SCT -SHSN AS SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES PASS THROUGH...ESPECIALLY CNY TERMINALS.

TUE....VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MDP






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