Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 151141
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
641 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
This morning will be dry and cold, across central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania. Another fast moving, clipper type storm,
will bring some light snow showers and flurries from Friday
afternoon into the weekend. A round of lake effect snow is
likely, mostly north of the Thruway, late tonight into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
6 am update...
Temperatures got even colder so lowered some more.

250 am update...
Weak lake effect snow continues in central NY in the far north
from Lake Ontario and far west from Lake Erie. This is lifting
north out of the area by sunrise as the flow shifts to the
southwest. Another large and strong short wave is dropping
southeast into the area with an upper level trough today. A
stacked low moves slowly east across southeast Ontario today and
tonight. This could spread some light snow into the far
northern zones this afternoon and evening. Amounts will be light
but lake moisture will increase as the flow shifts to WNW late
tonight into Saturday. More details on CNY later.

A short wave in the southern Plains will move northeast to NJ
this evening. A weak surface low will form ahead of it and
spread light snow into NEPA and the southern Catskills this
afternoon. Amounts will be an inch or less of snow with the
highest in the Poconos. This is a quick shot of light snow and
moves out of the area by 7 PM.

As a weak front moves slowly across the area some snow with lake
enhancement starts in central NY late today. Behind the front
late tonight the lake effect will become stronger with a band
off the east end of Lake Ontario brushing northern Oneida
County. A lake Erie band will extend across the western southern
tier into the Finger Lakes and central southern tier. Late
tonight there will be weak caa and better low level wind
alignment. The Lake Ontario band will be fairly stationary late
tonight but mostly north of our CWA. Saturday morning it will
shift south into Oneida County but become disorganized by midday
as the flow shifts to 300 and the moisture drops from 10k ft to
5k ft. Put up a Winter Weather Advisory for northern Oneida
County for 3 to 6 inches of lake effect late tonight and
Saturday morning. The Lake Erie band will do the same. For
Saturday a chance of light snow showers and flurries in all but
the Scranton/WB area and Poconos.

Temperatures slowly warm from this mornings single digits. Highs
in the low and mid 20s today warm to mid 20s from the Mohawk
Valley to the Catskills to around 30 for Elmira to Scranton with
more sunshine. Lows in the teens tonight. Less clearing of the
clouds so should stay out of the single digits. Still below
average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday night through Sunday, upper level heights will rise as
a flat ridge develops over the region and surface high pressure
moves from the vicinity to western New England. Saturday night
will be partly cloudy and cold with lows ranging from 5 to 15
degrees. Sunday afternoon will become mostly cloudy due to an
approaching mid level short wave and warm air advection.
Conditions are expected to remain dry except for scattered
flurries in the western forecast area. Highs will range in the
upper 20s in the western Catskills to middle 30s in the valley
areas of the southern tier and northeast Pennsylvania.

Sunday night the passing of a mid level short wave and weak
isentropic lift will bring the chance for some light snow. Any
accumulations would be an inch or less. Overnight lows will
range from the upper 20s in the central southern tier to upper
teens in northern Oneida County. The lows are expected to occur
prior to midnight followed by a slow rise in temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Not much changes to current forecast although the ECMWF and GFS
are now in better agreement late in the period.

In general Monday and Tuesday will feature a brief period of
temperature modification along with chances for mixed rain and
snow showers. A strong cold front will cross the region Tuesday
night followed by a period of potentially significant lake
effect snow east/southeast of the lake from Tuesday night
through Wednesday evening. The next system to impact the region
may occur Thursday night into Friday night as low pressure
tracks from the mid west to the Saint Lawrence Valley possibly
bringing a period of rain on Friday which would change to snow
showers Friday night once the trailing cold front moves through.

300 PM Update...
Monday and Tuesday will feature a moderation of temperatures as
the area remains under a mild southwest flow, with highs
reaching 35-45 both Monday and Tuesday. Weak waves will move
through, bringing chances for rain and higher elevation snow
showers. Models are still in good agreement that a rather strong
cold front will push through the area Tuesday night...dropping
850mb temperatures back down to around minus 10-12C. This colder
air-mass will combined with a moist northwest flow regime to
bring renewed chances for lake effect snow and snow showers.
There is the potential for some significant snow accumulations
in the favored lake effect areas of Central NY.

The model guidances then begins to struggle/diverge heading into
the end of next week as a deep low pressure system and
associated warm front move toward the region. Precipitation
type, amounts, and overall temperatures are very uncertain for
this period. These will strongly depend on the ultimate track
of the surface low and frontal position. The 12z GFS actually
pushes the low further south as it runs into a very cold air
mass in southern Canada...meanwhile the 12z ECMWF and CMC allow
the low to strength and move well to our west, through the Great
Lakes. This type of track would place our CWA in the warm sector
of the storm system, with much higher temperatures. With all of
the uncertainty in this period, decided to make only very minor
changes...mainly to slightly raise temperatures and PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
630 am update...

Lake effect band giving RME MVFR still but signs of it lifting
so maybe another hour. Fog at ELM for an hour or two until winds
increase.

A weak system will bring lower conditions and light snow to AVP
in the afternoon. 17z MVFR vsbys then at 20z IFR vsbys and MVFR
cigs until 00z when VFR.

Weak cold front and lake effect will affect RME starting at 22z
and SYR at 03z with mostly MVFR conditions. Flow is WSW so
should stay north of rest of sites.

Winds early this morning will be light west or calm shifting to
south or southwest by 14z. During the day winds increase to 4
to 8 kts and remain there tonight. Shift to west around 06z.

Outlook...

Saturday...Periodic restrictions possible in snow showers,
especially KSYR and KRME.

Sunday...VFR.

Monday and Tuesday...Possible restrictions in rain or snow
showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Saturday for NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MJM/RRM
AVIATION...TAC



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