Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBGM 021432
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1032 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. LATE FRIDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL USHER RAIN SHOWERS
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
FOG IS SLOWLY BURNING OFF AT THIS TIME BUT WITH LOW-LVL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION PER KBUF 12Z RAOB, SUN HAS YET TO SHINE IN
MOST OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS WL CHANGE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS
LVG PSUNNY SKIES THRU THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

AS THE SUN WORKS ITS MAGIC ON H8 TEMPS APPCHG 10C, EXPECT HIGHS TO
TOP OUT AROUND 70F AS MIXING DOES NOT APPEAR TO REACH THAT HIGH.
OTHER THAN A TWEAK TO HRLY T/TD/SKY GRIDS ALL OTHER GRIDS LOOK TO
BE OKAY.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

ANOTHER MORNING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG, AS TEMPERATURES DROP
BELOW THE CROSSOVER AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF
BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z, LEADING TO A PLEASANT, SUNNY AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
HOLD COLD FRONT OFF UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY.

WHEN THE FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT, PWATS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.50-1.60 INCHES. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME BRIEF, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. HOWEVER THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAST MOVING, STEERED BY
POWERFUL JET ALOFT.

0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE 50-60KTS EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER THE
INSTABILITY IS MEAGER. GFS MLCAPE FOR SYR IS UNDER 50 J/KG, AND
THIS SEEMS REALISTIC GIVEN THE COOLING RAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THUNDER MENTION OUT WITH THIS FORECAST,
THOUGH IF A WE DO GET A FEW RUMBLES, IT WILL PROBABLY BE ALONG AND
EAST OF I-81.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL BE PUSHING WELL TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. COOL WESTERLY FLOW WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 0 AND +2 C LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHC POPS IN OUR AREA ON SUNDAY FOR
THIS LAKE EFFECT WITH MUCH OF THE RAIN LIKELY TO BE NORTH AND
WEST OF OUR AREA IN WESTERLY FLOW REGIME. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY THEN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES EAST THROUGH THE LONG-
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z THU UPDATE... VARIED RESTRICTIONS AT MOST OF OUR TERMINAL
SITES (EXCEPT KSYR) WILL CONTINUE THIS MRNG...LIKELY TIL 14-16Z.

THIS AFTN AND TNT...VFR IS FORESEEN MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH A SCT-
BKN CU THIS AFTN...THEN MOSTLY JUST HIGH-LVL CLDNS OVERNIGHT.

IT APPEARS TO BE A TRICKY CALL OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRI ON WHETHER
LWR CLDS OR FOG WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A LOW-LVL
SELY JET DOES APPEAR TO INCREASE IN THE 00-12Z FRI TIME
FRAME...MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY ASSOCD LWR CLDS S AND
W OF OUR TERMINAL SITES. THE ONE SITE THAT SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO
HAVE RESTRICTIONS FROM EITHER FOG OR LWR CLDS WOULD BE KELM. FOR
NOW...WE`VE INTRODUCED A POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG AFTER 05Z
FRI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS CLDS ALSO THROWN IN TWDS
DAYBREAK.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH LATE THIS MRNG...WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT
THIS AFTN TO 5-10 KT FROM THE SE. TNT INTO EARLY FRI...SE WINDS WILL
STAY UP AT KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-10 KT. KELM AND
KAVP SHOULD DECOUPLE...WITH WINDS TURNING LGT/VRBL.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG/LWR CLDS AT KELM.

FRI NGT TO SAT MRNG...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LIKELY FROM SHRA.

SAT AFTN THROUGH MON...MAINLY VFR. SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/PVN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MSE/PVN
AVIATION...MLJ/TAC





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.