Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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786
FXUS61 KBGM 092109
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
409 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered lake effect snow showers will continue into early
Saturday, especially southeast of Lake Ontario. It will remain
cold this weekend, before a storm system spreads snow and possibly
mixed precipitation into our region Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
210 PM update...
The lake effect snow band is forecast to reorganize off of Lake
Ontario this evening, producing an additional 2 to 4 inches of
snow in the most persistent bands southeast of the lake. Moisture
is moderate, snow growth more supportive of LES than it was this
afternoon.

It may be possible for the next shift to shave the
southern counties out of the advisory, but for right now, we do
not have enough confidence in the trajectory to remove advisory
areas.

The band breaks up Saturday morning and becomes more cellular,
with a widespread half-inch to an inch of new snow forecast
across much of the forecast area.

A very chilly airmass (-8C to -10C 925mb) points to maximum
temperatures only in the middle to upper 20s on Saturday.

1030 AM update...
A Finger Lakes snow band will extend from near Ithaca to
Binghamton Regional Airport and Cooks Falls through the next 90
minutes. This snow band will produce an additional half-inch per
hour, so we have increased POPs and snow accumulations in the
vicinity of the band.

Temperatures will not rise much today as CAA strengthens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM Update...

Sunday morning the lake effect finally lifts north out of Oneida
County. Amounts will be less than an inch. Stays cold Sunday with
highs only around 30. Temperatures fall little Sunday night with
snow.

Models have come into some agreement on low pressure system
ejecting from the Central Plains Sunday through the Eastern Great
Lakes Monday. Track into southern Ontario and Quebec will pull
warm air northeast ahead of the cold front into the CWA. Warm
front Sunday PM brings better snow to Steuben to Oneida County NY
then a widespread mainly snow event late Sunday night. Warm air
moves in at low levels so snow could end as rain especially in
nepa. The above freezing air comes in after 09z. There is a chance
of freezing rain in nepa and the Catskills. If the warmer nam
verifies it could make it to the southern tier.

Dry slot of system will overtake the region Monday afternoon
ending the event. Highs Monday will be mainly mid to upper 30s.

A little bit of wraparound snow Monday night mostly for upstate
NY. Lows mostly in the upper 20s with the colder air well north.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 PM update...

The big event this period is the cold outbreak the end of the
week. Models do not agree on the scenario for Wednesday. some have
a light snowfall with a surface low moving east into the mid
Atlantic states. This passes then the upper level trough drops
southeast. Deep northwest flow of arctic air into the area will
set up a long period of lake effect snow. Highs around 20 Thursday
and Friday with lows 5 to 15.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold northwest flow will continue through the TAF period keeping
lake effect snow showers and flurries across the terminals. In
general widespread MVFR conditions are expected through this
afternoon with occasional IFR conditions through mid morning at
KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM. Conditions will be primarily low VFR at
KAVP/KELM. Overnight, MVFR conditions will prevail at KITH/KSYR
with VFR elsewhere.

Northwest winds at 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots decreasing
to around 10 knots this evening.

OUTLOOK...
Saturday...Occasional IFR or worse conditions will remain at play
for KSYR and KRME in lake-effect snow, with lingering restrictions
more transient at KITH, KELM, and KBGM. KAVP should stay primarily
VFR.

Sunday through Monday...Widespread restrictions likely developing
in light snow, a wintry mix, or light rain, depending on the time
and location.

Tuesday...Restrictions still possible in lingering lower ceilings
and snow showers, especially our central NY terminals.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Lake Effect Snow Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ017-
     018-036-037-044>046.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DJP



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