Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 040606
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
206 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH BEST CHANCES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...BUT MOST OF THE
TIME WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER.
FOR WEDNESDAY...OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
TO CATSKILLS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 AM UPDATE...
LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TIP OF JAMES BAY...WITH
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND IT ENCOMPASSING THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH GREAT LAKES THROUGH NORTHEAST REGIONS. MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND EACH WILL
SERVE TO CAUSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THE COVERAGE OF WHICH WILL BE QUITE LIMITED BY
FAIRLY LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND AN INCH. WITH THE
COOL AIR ALOFT...LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS...WHICH WILL ALSO PROMOTE MIXING DOWN OF SOME GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

GIVEN A FLOW RIDDLED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES...IT IS DIFFICULT TO
OVERLY COMMIT SHOWER CHANCES ON ANY ONE PARTICULAR LOCATION OR
TIME. BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE BETTER CHANCES WILL OCCUR AS
SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY OVER LAKE HURON...AND FURTHER UPSTREAM AROUND
GREEN BAY...PASS OVER OUR REGION LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THEN AGAIN THIS EVENING RESPECTIVELY. ALSO...THE BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES /FINGER LAKES THROUGH
SYRACUSE-UTICA AREAS/ WHICH WILL HAVE BOTH MORE INSTABILITY FROM
COOLER AIR ALOFT...AND BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. IN NORTHEAST
PA...ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST FIGURED FOR TODAY...AND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH THE REGION IN GENERAL WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME
WITH HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDER.

AFTER THE SECOND SHORTWAVE PASSES THIS EVENING...OVERNIGHT WITH
POST-WAVE SUBSIDENCE AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...CONVECTION
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY DIP TO ABOUT 7-8 DEG
CELSIUS WHICH GIVEN WARM LAKE ONTARIO TEMPERATURES...COULD
ACTUALLY INITIATE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS NORTH OF THE THRUWAY
TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY.

WITH A COLD FRONT HAVING PASSED THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT LOWER. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM MID 70S TO LOW
80S...FOLLOWED BY LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK RAIN-FREE, WITH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING OVERHEAD, AND NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION/SINKING MOTION
ALOFT.

ON THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN, A BROAD
CONSENSUS WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY, TIED TO THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH (APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY), FROM OUR NORTHEAST PA COUNTIES SOUTHWARD, WITH CENTRAL
NY STAYING MAINLY DRY. MORE CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER (MOSTLY IN THE
70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THIS PERIOD. THE LONG TERM BEGINS
WITH A WEAK TROF EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AS A SERIES OF DIFFUSE WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE
FLOW, A MORE DEFINED CYCLONE IS PROGGED TO FORM OVER THE LOWER
MIDATLANTIC REGION AND TRACK TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE THE
MAIN LOW IS TOO FAR SOUTH INITIALLY TO AFFECT US, THE TROF WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A COOL HIGH BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THROUGH DAYBREAK CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WITH SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AT KITH, INCLUDED
A TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBYS BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ESPECIALLY SINCE A
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED LATE THIS EVENING. AT KELM, INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR VSBYS BETWEEN 09Z-12Z DUE TO CLOSE TEMP/DEW
POINT SPREAD AND GUIDANCE FROM LOCAL CHECKLIST.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER HUDSON BAY WITH MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVES ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
CONVECTION. AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THEREFORE NOT
INCLUDED IN TAFS BUT TIMING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND MODEL
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION AROUND 18Z AND
00Z.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NW AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM



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