Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 251843
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
243 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The chance for showers and thunderstorms will prevail in the
forecast through Tuesday with cooler than normal temperatures.
Dry weather is expected to briefly return on Wednesday. The
next system to follow will soon move into the are on Thursday
and the chance for precipitation will last through the weekend.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 PM EDT Update...
Some showers and a few thunderstorms have developed across the
area this afternoon. Expect coverage to increase across the area
as we are in an unstable atmosphere and steep lapse rates are
present as the airmass is cool aloft. A shortwave trough west of
the region is also aiding in development. Showers/thunderstorms
should decrease in coverage near 00Z tonight, as this activity
is mostly diurnally driven.

The trough will move across the region after 00Z and push a weak sfc
cold front across NY/PA and push cooler air aloft. Weak lake
enhancement showers will develop in its wake as 850MB temps fall
to near 5/6 deg C. These may linger through the night. Temps
Sunday night/Monday morning are expected to fall into the uppr
40s/ low 50s.

Monday, the trend continues with unsettled weather as yet another
shortwave is expected to swing across the region. Very similar
conditions on Monday as today. Steep lapse rates, summer sun,
embedded shortwaves, cool air aloft and SW flow aloft will all
result in the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. The
mostly likely area to see showers will be over the Finger Lakes
region. Temps are expected to rise into the mid/upper 60s over
central NY and uppr 60s/low 70s over NEPA Monday afternoon. Precip
should end after sunset and temps are expected to fall into the uppr
40s/low 50s by Tues morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper wave and surface front will sweep through the area on
Tuesday triggering showers and thunderstorms. Best chance will
be over the NY counties, nearer the upper support. Ridge at the
surface and aloft builds in for Wednesday bringing drier air.
Not a lot of cold air advection behind Tuesday`s front so
temperatures on Wednesday will be driven by heating and may be a
few degrees warmer.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Near zonal flow will quickly flatten the upper ridge and push
the surface ridge east on Thursday. Approaching surface low and
upper wave will cause showers to break out over western NY
Thursday afternoon, but should hold off in our forecast area.

Showers and psbl thunderstorms break out Thursday night as the
system pushes in. Boundary looks like it may stall near the area
Friday and be the focus of continued showers and storms into
Saturday.

Late Saturday, fast flow pushes yet another system into the area
enhancing the chance for showers and storms through the end of
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR cu field will continue through the afternoon as the summer
sun has arrived. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely
at all taf sites as an unstable atmosphere is present. ATTM
confidence is too low to place TSRA in TAF, thus left out for
now. Small hail is possible in all storms. Ceilings are
expected to remain VFR through the period and may become SCT
after sunset. Another storm system will move into the region
tomorrow bringing additional chance for rain tomorrow morning.

Winds will be W/NW and breezy at 6 to 15 knots with gusts up to
25 this afternoon, becoming light and variable after sunset.
Winds will become SW around 5 to 10 knots Monday morning.

Outlook...

Monday - Tuesday...Mostly VFR, but restrictions are possible
with occasional showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday & Friday...Restrictions likely in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...KAH


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