Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 220543

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
143 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

A cold front will push through the area tomorrow triggering
showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be very
strong and may contain damaging winds. Dry and clearing
conditions will return for Wednesday.


845 PM Update...Any lingering scattered showers/storms
affecting parts of NE PA will diminish within the next hour or
two. No major changes were made to grids...just minor tweaks
based on latest conditions and trends.

Original Discussion...Weak upper wave may help trigger some
isolated convection this afternoon, especially over the central
and southern zones. Plenty of cape is available, but wind fields
are weak and there is no good surface trigger. Will keep slight
to chance pops thru the afternoon.

Tonight, plenty of debris clouds around so despite light winds
and low level moisture, fog should be more limited, if at all.

String cold front and upper wave approaches for Tuesday. Once
again, plenty of energy, with forecasted capes around and
possibly exceeding 1500 j/kg. Wind field is more impressive with
much higher shear numbers. So, severe thunderstorms are a
definite concern, with damaging winds the most likely


320 PM EDT Update...
By Wed night, the upper-lvl trough will slowly swing across the
region and NW flow at mid-lvls will prevail in the wake of the
a secondary fropa. This NW flow will bring about a 10 degree
temp difference to the region on Wed and as the upper low will
be slow to pass, the chance for precip on Wed will prevail (lake
enhanced, however moisture will be somewhat limited)

NW flow at mid-lvls will continue through the night and CAA will
continue to funnel into the region. This will result in sfc temps
reaching the low 50s/upper 40s by sunrise on Thurs. Thursday
afternoon a more pronounced shortwave trough will dive across
the Great Lakes region and swing across PA/NY Thurs night. This
wave will create an environment conducive for showers to develop
during the day on Thursday. By 06Z Friday, the trough axis will
be east of the region and anti-cyclonic flow aloft will create
strong subsidence and end the chance for precip. The subsidence
will likely cause lingering cloud coverage at the end of the
day to dissipate and cause strong radiational cooling develop,
thus sfc temps are expected to fall into the upper 40s/low 50s
Thurs night.


320 PM EDT Update...
Updated with new WPC guidance...
Minor changes were made from previous forecast...
Anti-cyclonic flow over the northeast combined with amplified
ridging over the western CONUS will result in quiet weather for
the extended forecast. High pressure is expected to prevail over
the region Friday and possibly linger through the weekend which
will result in below seasonal temperatures. This pattern may
prevail through the start of early next week.


Dense fog has already set in at KELM and expect conditions to be
near airport minimums through 10Z then boundary layer mixing
should clear the fog by 12Z. At KAVP, MVFR conditions in
mist/haze will persist until sunrise. Rest of the TAF sites will
remain VFR early this morning with increasing mid/high level
clouds. A strong cold front will cross the region during the mid
afternoon and early evening hours. Strong thunderstorms are
likely along this boundary with severe thunderstorms a
possibility. Included a four hour TEMPO group indicating this
convection at all TAF sites which will generally occur between
19Z-24Z. Following this boundary widespread MVFR conditions will
persist until 06Z due to ceilings and mist.

Winds becoming southwest this morning and increasing to 10-15
knots with gusts 15-25 knots. This evening winds westerly at
10-12 knots.


Wednesday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.




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