Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 070110
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
910 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND MORE SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. POP UP SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY...AND THEN DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

9 PM UPDATE...SHWRS CONT TO POP UP...MAINLY OVER THE ERN ZONES.
THEY SHD CONT TO LFT NWRD AND WWRD THRU THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THEY WEAKEN. SO...SOME UPDATE TO THE ZONES FOR POPS
TO CXVR THE PCPN. NOT OTR CHGS ATTM. PRVS DISC BLO.

330 PM UPDATE...MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM REMAINED FOCUSED
AROUND THE PASSING UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ON AND OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY WINDING DOWN
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE FIRST TWO SLUGS OF RAIN THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE CENTRAL NY AND
NE PA TODAY WERE THE PRIMARY RAIN PRODUCERS OF THIS SYSTEM FOR OUR
AREA...DROPPING AROUND A QUARTER TO 0.75 INCHES FROM THE POCONOS
AND SWRN CATSKILLS THROUGH THE TWIN TIERS. A STRONG PUSH OF DRY
AIR ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW IS GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE
SYSTEM AND ALLOWING A SUBSTANTIAL DRY SLOT TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN
NY/NE PA AND MOST OF NJ. MUCH OF THIS AREA IN THE DRY POCKET HAS
KEPT A LAYER OF LOW/MID CLOUDS...SO THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH IN THE
WAY OF DESTABILIZATION FOR T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS STABLE
PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING...SO HAVE GOT RID
OF ALL MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT.

THE SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PLAGUED MUCH OF THE
REGION THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO CHURN OUT RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE CENTER OF THE CUTOFF
UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE NIGHT AROUND THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA.

AN EWD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE SAT
MORNING AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AN
NARROW CORRIDOR OF RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE AMPLIFIED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND WRN NY/PA SAT MORNING...WHICH WILL
LIKELY ALLOW THE RAIN SHOWERS TO END ACROSS THE WRN COUNTIES. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF I-81.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...THE BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND MAYBE JUST
MAYBE A PEAK AT THE SUN LATE SAT MORNING/AFTERNOON WILL BE
REPLACED BY INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WITH AN INCOMING COLD
FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT APPEARS TO OCCUR DURING THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A QUICK HIT OF AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM THE FINGER LAKE NWD...AND LESS
THAN A TENTH TO THE SOUTH.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH GUSTY
W/NW WINDS EARLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE
MORNING IN THE 40S...AND ONLY RISE SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S. SKIES WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY IN THE DAY AND ALLOW
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DESTABILIZE WITH MINIMAL HEATING. AROUND
100-200 J/KG OF CAPE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH MIXING
TO 5000 FT WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

CONDITIONS BECOME QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE N/NW. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NOTICEABLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN LIKELY PUSHING
HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE
DETAILS BUT THE GENERAL THEME IS BELOW NORMAL UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. (LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE
60S) PERIODS OF SHOWERS. ONE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES OUT TUESDAY.
THE GFS HAS A RIDGE WHILE THE EURO DROPS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SOUTH
AND REESTABLISHES THE TROF. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PA TUE TO
WED THEN A STRONG SLOW MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE END OF THE WEEK. USED A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE AND SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE...

A BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING NW THROUGH RME DROPPING CIGS AND
VSBYS TO HIGH END MVFR THERE.

FOR NOW MVFR AT BGM ITH AVP AND VFR AT SYR RME.

THIS EVE AVP AND BGM FALL TO IFR AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL AROUND 13Z
SAT. OTHER SITES ALSO FALL TONIGHT BUT TO FUEL ALTERNATE MVFR AT
RME/ITH/ELM AND HIGH END MVFR AT SYR. IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY BACK TO
VFR BY 18Z.

N TO NE WINDS AT 5 KTS. SATURDAY AFTN S TO SW WINDS AT 5 KTS OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT-SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT.

SUN NGT-MON NGT...MAINLY VFR.

TUE TO WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT/DGM
NEAR TERM...BJT/DGM
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC


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