Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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869
FXUS61 KBGM 220108
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
808 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild temperatures will persist through the weekend. Areas of
locally dense fog are likely to form again overnight into early
Sunday. A developing storm system, over the mid-Atlantic states,
will bring rain, or a wintry mix to the region, from later Sunday
night into early Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
800 PM EST Update...
Dense fog has developed over much of NEPA this evening and areas
of patchy dense fog has developed over portions of central NY. The
dense fog advisory issued this evening is good through midnight
tonight and was issued for the higher elevation of the Poconos
and Sullivan County in NY. Expect the fog to prevail over NEPA and
central NY through much of the night due to an area of weak high
pressure sitting over the region. We have received many reports
tonight of visbys below a quarter of a mile over NEPA. Conditions
may slightly improve after midnight, but overall expect tonight to
be fairly fogy, especially within the higher elevations.

Adjusted temps a few degrees to match reality of current
observations, but for the most part the previous forecast is in
great shape. No significant changes were made to the previous
forecast. For more information please read the previous forecast
discussion below.

Previous forecast discussion...
140 pm update...
This evening, as the sun sets and the lower atmosphere cools a
bit, while remaining quite moist, stratus clouds should expand out
once again. Also, locally dense fog is expected to reform,
particularly over the higher terrain.

For Sunday, we`ll likely start out with plenty of low clouds and
areas of fog once again. However, as mixing slowly increases
during the day, the fog should lift by late morning/midday.

By later in the day, an E-W oriented band of light rain/drizzle
may be encroaching on our NEPA zones from the south, as an initial
short-wave approaches from the TN Valley.

Highs Sunday afternoon will be very mild once again for late
January, ranging from the mid 40s-lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A complex coastal system will impact the region Sunday night
through Monday night right into Tuesday. A low pressure system
will slowly move NE from the Kentucky / Tennessee region late
Sunday to a position near the Delmarva late late Monday then NE
off the coast of New England Tuesday

The precipitation Sunday night will be in the form of mostly just
rain as temperatures at the surface and aloft will still be
mostly be above freezing...precipitation won`t be too heavy and
will mainly affect areas from the Twin Tiers south into NE PA as
northern edge of precip will initially tend to erode as it moves
into ridge. Beginning in the late overnight Sunday night, colder
air moving in from the E/NE will begin to change rain over to
sleet and potentially some freezing rain over far eastern zones
through Sullivan north to Delaware and Otsego Counties. This will
occur first over the higher terrain as cold layer moving in will
be centered in the 925-850 mb layer.

On Monday, the colder air aloft spreads across the region from
the east/northeast with precipitation also becoming heavier in
intensity. Overall, models are coming into better agreement but
NAM still colder than the GFS in terms of initially bringing in
this colder air - ECMWF is in between. Thus, overall, followed a
NAM/GFS/ECMWF blend as far as deriving weather grids from model
temperatures aloft. As mentioned above, the wintry mix begins in
eastern areas Sunday night into early Monday - I-81 west should
still be all rain to start the day. Expect rain to mix with sleet
and/or snow over much of I-81 corridor by midday into the
afternoon and encompass most of the region by late day. Valley
locations, especially in NE PA, will be the last to change over.
While Rain/snow/sleet look to be dominant precip types some
freezing rain will be possible...especially in the Poconos and
Catskills.

By Monday night the precipitation will gradually change to mostly snow
at most locations but the far southeast areas but will be becoming
lighter in intensity. Highs in the mid to upper 30s Monday drop to
the low to mid 30s Monday night.

For Tuesday, precipitation tapers to rain/snow showers by
afternoon with temperatures not rising too much...generally
hovering in the mid 30s.

At this time snow accumulations across the northern half of the
forecast area look to generally range from 2-4 inches
with little if any snow across most of northeast Pennsyvlania
expect higher terrain where there could be a couple inches. Still
the potential for some areas over central NY to see higher
amounts..potentially to around 6 inches with the best chances
being over higher terrain of Steuben into Yates Counties. In
terms of total liquid QPF with the system, most models now
forecasting potential for 1 to 1.5 inches of QPF with higher
amounts less likely. Thus, hydro issues dont` appear likely at
this time. Finally, strong east winds will be a concern Monday
into Monday night with the potential for gusts over 40
mph..especially across higher terrain of Poconos and Catskills.
This will have to be closely monitored as it could add to impacts
of any snow/ice accumulation. &&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There will be a brief break late Tuesday into early Wednesday then
by late Wednesday into Thursay low pressure will track from the
central Great Lakes northeast into near southern Ontario. This
system will bring the area mixed rain/snow showers Wednesday
through Thursday. Colder air behind this feature combined with an
upper level trof in eastern Canada will bring temperatures back to
more seasonal levels late next week and into the weekend along
with scattered snow showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There will be a brief break late Tuesday into early Wednesday then
by late Wednesday into Thursay low pressure will track from the
central Great Lakes northeast into near southern Ontario. This
system will bring the area mixed rain/snow showers Wednesday
through Thursday. Colder air behind this feature combined with an
upper level trof in eastern Canada will bring temperatures back to
more seasonal levels late next week and into the weekend along
with scattered snow showers.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak high pressure will sit over the region tonight resulting in
light and variable winds. Copious amounts of low-lvl moisture is
present over the region due to previous rain. This low-lvl
moisture will result in IFR flight conditions at all taf sites
tonight. KAVP, KBGM and KELM are expected to have below alternate
minimum flight conditions in visbys as dense fog is expected to
settle overnight. At KAVP, visbys may fall to below airport
minimums for the next few hours. Guidance hints at improvement
after 06Z at KAVP, to bring below airport min to below alternate
min, but confidence is not high that this may occur and may need
to AMD TAF. Fog may take a while to burn off Sun morning and is
expected to burn off around 16Z.

Gradual improvement is expected at all sites around 15-18z
Sunday.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday night, Monday, and into Tuesday...Restrictions likely in
rain or a wintry mix.

Wednesday & Thursday...More restrictions possible in rain or snow
showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for PAZ043-044-047-
     048-072.
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...KAH/MLJ



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