Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 300709
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
309 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO OUR AREA TODAY. A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM
PULLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADED TOWARD SOUTHERN CANADA.

925MB TEMPS IN THE 18C-20C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
AROUND 80 OVER THE NORTHERN FA AND IN THE MID 70S OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN FA WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL MARINE FLOW
PUTTING A CAP ON TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UL TROF PROGRESSES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF
APPROACHES LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT, AND PASSES THROUGH NY/PA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER DUE TO POOR LL AND ML
LAPSE RATES, COPIOUS MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH PLAN VIEW PWATS
ABOVE 1.50 INCHES FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. IT MAY PEAK ABOVE 1.75
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE INCLUDED A
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT CAPE IS TOO LOW FOR A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.

LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF STILL HANGING AROUND ON
MONDAY WHILE UL TROF DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CONVECTION EVEN ON MONDAY, SO WENT WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
310 AM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE LONG TERM. BUMPED
POPS TO LKLY FOR TUE AS CDFNT PASSES THRU. TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE
80S AHD OF FROPA BFR DROPPING SLIGHTLY BY WED, BUT STILL RMNG SLGTLY
ABV SEASONAL VALUES.

FOLLOWING FROPA, FLOW ALOFT WL BCM ZONAL WITH SFC HIPRES BUILDING
IN THRU END OF THE WEEK BFR SHIFTING EAST INTO ATLANTIC. STILL
SOME DISCREPANCY IN MODELS WITH REGARD TO END-OF-WEEK SYSTEM WITH
00Z EC SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN GFS. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
WORK OUT DETAILS AND HV MAINTAINED SLGT CHC-CHC POPS, WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT AS OVC MVFR DECK HAS NOW DEVELOPED JUST
SOUTH OF AVP. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THOUGHT IT BEST TO TEMPO IN
BKN020 DECK BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z, THEN GO PREDOMINANT FROM 09Z TO
13Z. AFTER THIS TIME, EXPECT DECK TO SCATTER OUT WITH VFR EXPECTED
NEXT 24 HOURS. FURTHER NORTH, EXPECT MVFR VSBYS TO SET IN AT ELM THEN
BRIEFLY GO IFR BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z IN FOG. MAY SEE A SCT015 CIG
PASS OVER BGM TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH ALL OTHER TERMINALS JUST
EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE VFR CIRRUS.

WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5KTS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10KTS.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SAT NIGHT...PATCHY MVFR LATE IN -SHRA.

SUN THROUGH TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY SUNDAY
AND TUESDAY.

WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN




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