Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 191728
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
128 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will yield plenty of sunshine and mild
temperatures over the next few days. Temperatures will rise
into the 70s this weekend. The pattern will become more
unsettled and slightly cooler next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1125 AM update...
A very quiet day is forecast. A frontal system attached to a
Canadian low is approaching from the northwest, but conditions
are too dry for precipitation to occur. Expect an increase in
mid-level cloudiness ahead of the front, then clearing after the
front passes.

250 am update...
Weather conditions in the near term remain relatively quiet
with the main concern being the very mild temperatures and the
potential for isolated patches of valley fog this morning and
Friday morning.

Ridge of high pressure at the surface to the south across the
mid Atlantic region coupled with a very dry air mass will keep
weather conditions quiet today and Friday. There is a weak upper
s/w currently moving through the central Great Lakes this
morning and is expected to sweep quickly through the Northeast
today. This feature will mainly act to increase mid and high
level cloud cover, and also inhibit the formation of fog this
morning. A layer of stronger winds just above the surface is
helping to keep the boundary layer well mixed and limit the amt
of fog. This layer of wind will partially mix down to the
ground today and produce sw wind gusts around 15 to 20 mph.
There is some evidence that the winds will continue into tonight
and act to inhibit fog once again.

The added cloud cover today will not hinder the amt of heating
with temperatures warming into the upper 60s and lower 70s. A
slightly cooler nw flow on the back side of the departing upper
trough Friday will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than
Thursday...only in the mid to upper 60s. Still very pleasant for
mid-late Oct. The air mass gets even drier Friday night with
skies remaining mostly clear and the very dry conditions
inhibiting fog once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
4 am update... It still appears that a strong upper ridge will
hold over the eastern states this weekend, with an unseasonably
warm SW flow in place across CNY/NEPA. Thus, rain-free weather
should persist, with daytime highs ranging from the upper 60s-
mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
4 am update... In the big picture, the eastern CONUS ridge
should break down next week, as an upper trough axis nudges
eastward from the middle of the country and amplifies. In
general, this should spell an end to our warm, dry stretch,
with cooler, more seasonable temperatures developing over time.

Still at issue is exactly when the more persistent showers
arrive across CNY/NEPA. The GFS remains the most aggressive,
developing showers from W-E by later Monday or Monday evening.
In the meantime, the EC is much slower, holding most of the
showers off until later Tuesday or Tuesday night. At this point,
we`ve gone with a compromise solution, first indicating the
likelihood of showers during the day Tuesday. This also matches
well with our surrounding offices.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Clear skies and VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24
hours. River valley fog is possible at KELM early Friday
morning, but if fog develops it is likely to be patchy and
light, as it was early this morning.

Winds will shift to the west on Friday at 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...

Friday afternoon to Sunday...Mostly VFR. Possible early morning
restrictions in fog at KELM Saturday and Sunday.

Monday...Mostly VFR but possible restrictions at times due to
showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...BJT/DJP
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DJP


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