Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000
FXUS61 KBOX 042331
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AFTER A COOL START TO THIS WEEKEND...A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND DEVELOPS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
BECOMING MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.
A COLD FRONT MAY YIELD THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. SOME STRATUS
HANGING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MA THIS EVENING. STILL
EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

BROUGHT THE FORECAST BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS E MA BUT CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS SOUTHWARD. WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT TO
NEAR CALM RESULTING IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR MINS TONIGHT WHICH WILL
BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT COOLER UPPER 40S IN COLDER SPOTS IN W MA AND
INTERIOR E MA. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG EXPECTED IN THE TYPICAL PRONE
LOCATIONS FOR RADIATION FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AS IT BUILDS OVER SNE
GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. SUNNY DAYS EXPECTED SAT
AND SUN WITH A WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S SAT WITH
COASTAL SEABREEZES...POSSIBLY WARMING INTO LOWER 80S CT VALLEY
AND INTERIOR NE MA. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS BOTH DAYS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL NIGHT SAT NIGHT
WITH MIN TEMPS SIMILAR TO TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS RETURN SUNDAY INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK
* DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

DISCUSSION...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN. 04/12Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT. WE STILL EXPECT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LINGERING ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES
OFFSHORE.

CURRENT EXPECTATION IS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STILL SOME QUESTION ON THE
TIMING FOR OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST
LIKELY PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WE CAN
SEE A SCENARIO FOR CONVECTION WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 02Z...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS SE MA AND THE
CAPE/ISLANDS...WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...
VFR ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. PATCHY IFR RADIATION FOG LATE
TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT IN TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS. COASTAL SEABREEZES SATURDAY. SEABREEZES POSSIBLE
SUNDAY BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEABREEZE DEVELOPING BY
16Z SAT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY-TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

730 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT DIMINISHING THIS EVENING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. DROPPED MOST OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALREADY
THIS EVENING. LATEST BUOY REPORTS STILL SHOWING SEAS LINGERING
ABOUT 5 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER RI COASTAL WATERS. WILL CONTINUE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. NE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING.

SAT INTO SUN...HIGH PRES WILL LEAD TO TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER...OR NEAR...THE WATERS. MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES NEARSHORE...GIVING WAY TO A MORE
SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/KJC
NEAR TERM...BELK/KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/KJC
MARINE...BELK/KJC


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