Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 221608
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1108 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build north of the area today and tonight. Low
pressure will then intensify along the mid Atlantic coast Monday
and move north toward the region late Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11:00 AM Update. Forecast remains on track. Some cooler air is
beginning to filter across the north. Low stratus is expected to
persist today.

Previous discussion...A weak cold front will cross the region
early this morning, ushering in a colder airmass. Even still,
temperatures will be above normal today with highs ranging from
around 30 in the north to the mid and upper 30s Downeast. The
frontal passage should be dry, though a few flurries aren`t out of
the question, and it will be followed by high pressure building
south from Canada. Moisture will become trapped under the
subsidence inversion, so expect plenty of cloud cover to linger
today and tonight. The moisture thins out after midnight, so
expect skies will start to clear out late tonight. Temperatures
will drop quickly in any areas that see clearing; overnight lows
will be around 10 in the northern County and around in Bangor and
Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A wintry mix late Monday night through Tuesday...

Monday will be the calm before the storm as high pressure remains
anchored to our north across eastern Quebec province. Light
northeast east winds on Monday will keep high temperatures across
northern areas generally in the mid to upper 20s, with highs
across central and down east areas in the low to mid 30s. Expect
mainly sunny skies across northern areas and partly sunny skies
central and down east.

Monday night our attention turns to a storm system that will be slowly
moving north from the mid atlantic region. Expect increasing clouds
Monday evening. Precipitation is expected to develop across central
and down east areas after midnight Monday. Across far northern
areas, precipitation will hold off until sunrise Tuesday, as it
will take a while for atmosphere to saturate with dry low level
air associated with the high to our north, in place.
Precipitation will then continue to expand across the area Tuesday
morning as low pressure continues to lift slowly north from the
southern New England coast. Abundant moisture is expected to
be transported across the region on Tuesday in advance of the
approaching system, with the potential for 0.50 to 1.0+ qpf.
There still is some uncertainty with regard to precipitation type
but there is the potential for significant accumulations of sleet
and freezing rain, especially inland from the down east coast on
Tuesday. Precipitation is expected to transition to rain along the
immediate coast during Tuesday but northeast winds will continue
to funnel low level cold air across inland areas. Thus, have
leaned with slightly colder guidance temperatures for high on
Tuesday. There will be the potential for significant sleet
accumulation along with a quarter inch or more of ice.

After collaboration with neighboring office (WFO GYX), decision
was made to hold off on any headlines as this time, since
precipitation doesn`t really get going until late fourth period
across central/down east areas, and early fifth period across the
far north . However, winter storm watches and/or advisories will
likely be needed starting late Monday night central/down east
areas and starting  early Tuesday across the far north.

Another concern will be the potential for gusty east to northeast
winds later Monday night and Tuesday as 925 mb winds increase to
40to 50 kt, with the strongest winds along the down east coast,
where a wind advisory will likely be needed later Monday night
into Tuesday for the down east coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A wintry mixture of precipitation will be ongoing Tuesday evening
before the low slowly tracks into New Brunswick later Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Additional sleet and ice accumulations are
possible Tuesday evening. Precipitation will diminish to snow or
rain showers during Wednesday as the low continues to lift through
the Canadian maritimes. Unsettled weather will persist into late
week as an upper trof crosses the region. Temperatures at the
beginning of the period will be above normal and then cool to
closer to seasonal normals by late week and next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions will prevail at the northern sites
through 12z Monday due to ceilings remaining 1500- 2500 ft.
Ceilings will lift above 3000 ft at BGR and BHB after 14z Sun and
remain so through tonight.


SHORT TERM: VFR Monday with light northeast winds. Flight
conditions will begin to deteriorate later Monday night,
especially KBGR/KBHB, in developing wintry mixture of
precipitation with IFR expected. Widespread IFR is expected
Tuesday through Tuesday night in continued wintry mix with
significant sleet/ice accumulation possible inland terminals.
Conditions should improve to VFR/MVFR in lingering snow/rain
showers Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will turn to the north and northeast and increase to
10 to 20 kts this morning after a weak cold front crosses the
waters. High pressure will build north of the waters tonight, and
this will cause a tightening pressure gradient across the Gulf of
Maine. Winds will increase in response, with gusts reaching 25-30 kt
after midnight. Seas will hover around 2 feet through the day today
and then build to around 4 feet by daybreak Monday.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will gradually increase to small craft
advisory levels Monday afternoon and reach gale force levels
Monday night through Tuesday. Have upgraded the gale watch to a
gale warning Monday night through Tuesday, although a few gusts
close to storm force cannot be ruled out.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 PM Monday to 4 PM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Hastings
Short Term...Duda
Long Term...Duda
Aviation...Hastings/Duda
Marine...Hastings/Duda



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