Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 260400
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1200 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An occluded front will cross the area overnight through early
Tuesday. High pressure builds in for late Tuesday. A cold front
just north of the area Wednesday crosses the area Wednesday night
and Thursday with unsettled weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Midnight update...An occluded front will work across the CWA
overnight. There is a fairly extensive area of showers with
isolated thunderstorms moving across the region. The steadiest of
the shower activity will be tapering off across the western zones
shortly, and along the NB border by daybreak. The highest rainfall
total so far is 0.92" at Turner Brook in northern Somerset County,
with amounts generally less than 1/2" for most areas so far. It
looks like the threat of both severe weather and flooding is very low,
but water will pond on roadways. Only minor tweaks to the ongoing
forecast based primarily on the latest observations and the radar
and near term model trends.

Previous Discussion...
Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms tonight as an occluded
front crosses the area. Showers will increase from west to east
through the evening, then taper off from west to east later in
the night. Instability aloft actually increases through the
evening and could see a few embedded storms, but nothing strong.
Precipitable water values skyrocket to 1.5 to 2 inches through the
evening, and with slow movement of cells, flooding is a little
concern later in the evening and overnight. Some high res
ensemble members generate very localized 2 to 3 inches of rain,
which could fall in a few hours. Not too concerned about flash
flooding, but a few spots may see enough to warrant some sort of
advisory. Really anywhere in the area could see the heavier
downpours, with a slightly greater chance Downeast. Most areas
will see somewhere roughly 1/2 inch or a little less of rain,
although a few spots, as mentioned before, will get a fair amount
more. Fog is another concern tonight, mainly Downeast, where some
visibilities to 1/2 mile and possibly lower are expected.

The rain tapers off some later tonight, although a shortwave
trough moving through in the morning hours with help keep some
shower activity going Tuesday, especially over the north. Kept
likely precip chances up north for Tuesday. Shortwave trough axis
passes through by early afternoon, but daytime heating should
compensate for this and keep the activity going into the
afternoon. Don`t expect anything severe for Tuesday, although a
few cells could have small hail. Another warm day Tuesday with
highs mostly in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure will move away from New England Tuesday Night. A cold
front will approach from he northwest during the day Wednesday.
This will result in showers and scattered thunderstorms during the
day Wednesday, mainly across the north. Another cold front will
move across the region Thursday as upper level low pressure passes
to the the north resulting more showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers are expected to come to an end Thursday Night. Low
pressure will pass to the south of the area Saturday, too far to
the south to produce any precipitation. High pressure is then
expected to build in across the region during the day Saturday.
Showers are possible again during the day Sunday into Monday as
another system approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR conditions will develop across the entire
forecast area overnight with showers, isolated thunderstorms, low
clouds and fog. Locally heavy rain is also possible overnight.
The lowest conditions are generally expected toward the Downeast
coast. Improving to VFR through the morning Tuesday.
Showers/thunderstorms, most numerous across northern areas, are
also expected into Tuesday afternoon with variable conditions.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Wednesday through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels overnight through Tuesday. Visibilities will be reduced in
fog tonight into Tuesday morning. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms are also expected overnight into Tuesday morning.

SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM12 for winds. For waves: With wind
speeds across the waters expected to be below 10 knots through
most of this forecast period expected wave systems to primarily
result from incoming low period southeasterly swell running
around 2 feet/6-7 seconds..

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/Foisy
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Mignone
Aviation...CB/Foisy/Mignone
Marine...CB/Foisy/Mignone



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