Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 230220

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1020 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

High pressure will continue to move east of the region through
Monday. Low pressure will approach by mid week with the
potential for a widespread significant rain event Wednesday into


1022 PM Update...
Brought fog in across the downeast areas overnight and adjusted
the temps up a tad as the clouds will keep a lid on things. The
latest IR satl imagery showed low clouds moving in from the
Gulf of Maine. The latest RAP guidance was doing quite well
w/the low clouds and temps. It lined up well w/bringing the low
clouds further n into portions of the Central Highlands
overnight. Based on this assessment, decided to bring more
clouds northward into the Millinocket- Lincoln region as well as
into the central and southern Piscataquis region. Less clouds n
of the Houlton-Millinocket region.

Previous Discussion...
Surface high pressure will continue to move east through the
Canadian Maritime provinces tonight, while a 500 mb ridge axis
crests across the region by morning. Expect mainly clear to
partly cloudy skies across the region this evening. As the
surface high continues to move east, expect a light southeast
return flow to develop. The light southeast flow and increasing
boundary layer moisture could lead to some low clouds and patchy
fog by morning, especially across the upslope region of of
Piscataquis county. Some of this may spread east as far north as
southeast Aroostook by daybreak Monday. Otherwise, any low
clouds and patchy fog early Monday should give way to mainly
sunny skies and milder afternoon temperatures as the high
continues to build to the south of the Canadian Maritime
provinces. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s to lower
40s north and low to mid 40s central an down east. Highs on
Monday will range from the low to mid 60s across the region.


     Dry Regime is Replaced by Wet Regime...

Although steady rn will not arrive into our FA until Tue ngt,
with sfc and llvl winds becoming and increasing from the S Mon
ngt, oceanic ST, patchy dz and fog will initially overspread the
FA by erly Tue morn. Low cldnss...patchy dz and sct shwrs will
cont thru Tue as the Srly wind fetch remains in place. heavier
steadier rnfl will then move W to E onto the FA Tue ngt and Wed
as a deep trop atmos rvr from the trop Atlc and Caribbean Sea
moves ovr the FA. Sig rnfl totals for much of the FA will be
possible even by Wed eve, so max PoPs will be near 100 percent
by Wed aftn. Winds will increase slowly from Tues into Wed, with
possible wind adv wind speeds by Wed aftn. Both hi and spcly low
temps will be well abv normal durg this ptn of the fcst.


     How much Rainfall for our Region?...

Long range models show only slow E movement of the deep trop
atmos rvr crossing our FA Wed ngt and Thu with PWATs in excess
of 150 percent, with the potential of additional sig to hvy
rnfl. We kept PoPs well into the categorical range during both
of the pds. To far out to mention hvy rnfl attm, but we do
indicate mdt rnfl beginning Wed and contg into Thu. If the worst
case scenario rnfl pans out as we get closer to this event, we
will have to entertain a flood watch for part or all of or Rgn.
We will cont to monitor the latest model trends in making this

Otherwise, the mean consensus of long range models ends the rn
Thu ngt as sct shwrs with improvement in the wx for Fri as a
s/wv trof and sfc cold front from the Midwest finally kicks
out the deep trop moisture E out of the Rgn. Fair and drier
conditions should cont Sat and most of Sun before cldnss and
shwrs from the next sfc low and associated s/wv alf from the
Midwest apchs for Sun ngt and Mon. Temps will cont abv normal
thru the pd even behind the cold front Thu ngt and Fri.


NEAR TERM: VFR conditions with light southeast winds this
evening. There is the potential for MVFR or lower conditions
toward KBGR/KBHB after 05Z in developing low ceilings. Any low
clouds should dissipate after sunrise with VFR and light south
winds on Monday.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Oceanic ST will overspread the FA from S to
N ovrngt Mon with conditions lowering from VFR to IFR with
patchy fog and dz. Some recovery to MVFR clgs are possible Tue
aftn, spcly Nrn TAF sites before conditions lower to IFR Tue ngt
for all sites and cont thru Thu ngt mainly in rn. Conditions
should improve to MVFR on Fri with sct shwrs.


NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels through Monday.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Initially no hdlns Mon ngt, but winds and
seas increase to SCA by late Tue with a srly wind fetch and
cont so thru into Fri with the highest seas Wed into Thu as wind
gusts apch gale force. Winds and seas then slowly diminish Thu
ngt thru Fri as winds become more wrly component ovr tm. Used a
blend of WW3/NWPS for fcst wv hts with wv pds increasing from 5
to 7 sec Mon ngt to arnd 10 sec as the character of the wvs
become more storm like late Wed into Thu morn when open water
wv hts possibly apch 15 ft.

Marine ST cld cvr and fog will start becoming an issue late Mon
ngt and Tue and will likely reduce vsbys to a half mile or less
Tue ngt thru Thu despite Srly strong wind speeds due to
warm...moist air from the trop Atlc movg Nwrd across cold Gulf
of ME waters.





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