Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 202226
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
626 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
625 PM UPDATE...A QUIET EVENING WEATHER-WISE AS THE REGION IS
BETWIXT UPPER LOWS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MARITIMES. THE
DIURNAL CU IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DISSIPATING IN MANY AREAS AND WILL
DISSIPATE IN ALL AREAS THIS EVENING WITH THE RAPID LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. JUST SOME HIGH/THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF NEW ENGLAND. LOADED THE
PAST FEW HOURS OF OBSERVED DATA AND INTERPOLATED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED WITH
THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTH VERY SLOWLY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. MOST
PLACES WILL REMAIN CLEAR BUT WINDS MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAWN ALONG SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEYS. SKIES WILL
BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR ON THURSDAY. A WEAK UPPER LOW WEST OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL DRAW JUST A BIT OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST. SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AND WEAKLY UPSLOPING
WINDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY BE JUST
STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME OF THE CUMULUS TO FORM ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK CAPE ALTHOUGH
A BIT OF CAPPING AROUND 12K FT MAY LIMIT CONVECTION IN MOST AREA.
OTHERWISE, THURSDAY WILL TURN OUT PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING HOWEVER EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING BELOW THE 50S.

FOR FRIDAY, A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT COMBINED WITH JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS UNDER VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
SATURDAY LOOKING TO FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT
WINDS, AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE LONG RANGE RESULTING IN FAIR AND DRY WEATHER UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH A WARMING TREND. HOW QUICKLY
TEMPERATURES WARM HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON
QUICKLY THE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND THE RESULTING SW FLOW
KICKS IN. AT THIS POINT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN DOESN`T LOOK TO
ARRIVE UNTIL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE
ISOLATED POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY FOG VERY LATE TONIGHT OR
AROUND DAWN THURSDAY MORNING.


SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH.

SHORT TERM:
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL ON THE SEAS WITH NO HEADLINES
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/CB
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/CB/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...BLOOMER/CB/FITZSIMMONS





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