Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 290453
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1250 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. COASTAL AREAS ARE REPORTING AREAS OF FOG AT THIS HOUR.
THIS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT EXPECT IT WILL DISSIPATE
AROUND DAYBREAK AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. OTHER THAN
ADDING FOG FOR THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS, ALL OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MINOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT
SLOWING ITS FORWARD PROGRESS JUST A BIT. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. WILL ADJUST THE CURRENT POP
AND WEATHER GRIDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT POPS FOR THIS EVENING
STILL LOOK GOOD. FOR WINDS HAVE USED THE MOSG25. FOR TEMPERATURE
AND DEW POINT HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND A WARM AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BREEZY, WARM AND
HUMID DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. ANY OF THESE STORMS CAN CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL THEN BEGIN WITH SOME SHOWERS IN DOWNEAST AREAS AS
CLEARING PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH. COOLER DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY WITH CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SUNSHINE AND A WARM
AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
THE DOWNEAST REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY AND SUNNY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FIRST TWO HRS AT FVE BFR VFR SETS IN
NEXT 24 HOURS. BGR AND BHB WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A
TIME TONIGHT BUT VFR REMAINDER OF TAF VALID TIME.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN VFR ON SATURDAY THEN LOWER TO IFR ACROSS THE
NORTH IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR DOWNEAST
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS ALL THE
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO LET THE SCA EXPIRE AS SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
STAYED BELOW 25 KTS. THERE COULD BE A SURGE UPWARD THIS EVENING,
BUT NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 25 KTS W/THE FROPA. SEAS HAVE JUST
COME UP TO 5 FT AND THERE IS A SHOT FOR 6 FT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
THIS EVENING. ADDED A MENTION FOR HIGHER SEAS INITIALLY BUT THEN
WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF W/OFFSHORE FLOW. A SWELL WAS ENTERING THE
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHEAST (3-4 FEET/6 SECONDS).

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/BLOOMER
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/BLOOMER



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