Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 310453
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1253 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1250 AM UPDATE...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
ADD MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK. RH IS ALREADY AT OR
NEAR 100 PERCENT IN SPOTS, AND A FEW LOCATIONS ARE SEEING
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION, FEEL LOW-LYING AREAS COULD SEE FOG
DEVELOP AS WE HEAD TOWARD DAWN. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION: A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST
MAINE LATER TONIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE EARLY TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS...EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH OF MAINE. WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY. EXPECT
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN INTO MID WEEK.  EASTERN MAINE WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SUMMER HOLDING ON INTO
EARLY SEPTEMBER.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A WONDERFUL LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 10PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. 00Z TAFS REMAIN ON
TRACK WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN ALL LOCATIONS AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THRU SUNRISE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN
TAF SITES /FVE CAR PQI/ ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/NORCROSS/OKULSKI
MARINE...HASTINGS/NORCROSS/OKULSKI



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