Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 211017
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
517 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region today through
tonight while a cold front stalls across the Gulf of Maine.
Low pressure will approach Monday night then cross the area
Tuesday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front will stall across the Gulf of Maine today while
high pressure builds toward the region. The stalled front will
remain across the Gulf of Maine tonight while high pressure
builds across the region. Generally expect partly sunny skies
across the region today. Moisture will increase along the
stalled front tonight producing mostly cloudy skies across
much of the forecast area. Isolated snow showers are also
possible across western portions of the forecast area later
tonight. Partly cloudy skies are expected across extreme
northern portions of the forecast area tonight closer to high
pressure. High temperatures today will range from around 20 to
the mid 20s north, to the lower to mid 30s interior Downeast
with mid to upper 30s along the Downeast coast. Low temperatures
tonight will range from around zero north, to the mid to upper
teens interior Downeast with upper teens to lower 20s along the
Downeast coast.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Strong high pressure is expected to crest over the region early
Monday morning, then move to the east. A warm front will
approach the region later in the day resulting in snow
overspreading the region from southwest to northeast. The snow
is expected to change to mixed precipitation late Monday night
across coastal and southern areas as warmer air moves in aloft.
Mixed precipitation will then spread to the north Monday
afternoon as precipitation becomes all rain in central and
southern areas. For QPF have blended the GFS and ECMWF. Have
used the precipitation from thickness tool run on a 50/50 blend
of the GFS and ECMWF for precipitation type. The snow ratio
blender was used for snow amounts. Expect the low to move to the
north of the region Tuesday Night. All precipitation will end
as snow showers Tuesday night as colder air moves in behind the
low.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Intense low pressure will move northeast across the Maritimes
Wednesday as it move away from the region. It will continue to
produce strong gusty winds across the region into early
Thursday. Strong high pressure will build in from the west later
Thursday and Friday. This high will then crest over the area
early Saturday morning then move to the east.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Localized MVFR conditions are possible across the
north and mountains this morning. Otherwise, generally expect
VFR conditions across the region today through much of tonight.
However, occasional MVFR conditions are also possible across
central and Downeast areas late tonight.

SHORT TERM: Expect VFR conditions early Monday then IFR
conditions Monday night and Tuesday. Expect VFR conditions
Wednesday and Thursday.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for much of the
waters, with the exception of the intracoastal waters, through
10 AM. Conditions are then expected to be below small craft
advisory levels on all the waters this afternoon through
tonight.

SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM to initialize the wind grids.
Expect increasing southeasterly winds as intense low pressure
passes west of New England late Tuesday. For waves: Expect
northeasterly wind wave (2 feet/4 seconds) to be the primary
wave system Monday. A strong southeasterly fetch will develop
Tuesday extending from the Gulf of Maine well to the south. This
fetch is expected to persist into early Wednesday when it will
be broken up by a wind shift. Expect off-shore wave heights to
build to 15-20 feet/10 seconds by late in the day Tuesday. This
wave system should subside to around 8 feet by late Wednesday.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Norcross
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Mignone
Aviation...Norcross/Mignone
Marine...Norcross/Mignone


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