Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 291342
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
842 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION TUE INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
8:45 AM UPDATE...EXPANDED COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS UP INTO
NORTHERN MAINE WHERE SOME STREAMERS OF FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. OTHERWISE, NO
MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

EXPECT COLD FRONT ALONG WITH SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS. A COLDER AIR
MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL USE THE GFS40 FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF
SINCE IT IS HANDLING POPS AND QPF FROM FRONTAL SYSTEM. HAVE USED
THE CONSENSUS RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE TO BETTER HANDLE INCOMING
COLDER AIR MASS. THE MOSG25 WAS USED FOR WIND GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS SETTING IN PLACE W/HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM
THE CANADIAN REGION.

THE PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE W. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM POINT TO SOME MOISTURE FROM 925-850MBS ACROSS THE NORTHERNAND
WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY W/A WNW FLOW. THEREFORE, SOME CLOUDS WILL
BE AROUND WHICH WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWN AS WELL
KEEPING READINGS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS. ELSEWHERE, THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND W/TEMPERATURES QUITE COLD ONLY REACHING THE
LOW TO MID TEENS BY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STREAMERS TO COME OFF OF THE OPEN ST.
LAWRENCE. THE WIND TRAJECTORY FROM THE SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THIS IS IT WERE TO SET UP WOULD BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREAS AND NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. SINCE THE DEPTH OF
THE MOISTURE LAYER LOOKS TO BE LIMITED, DECIDED TO LEAVE OFF THE
MENTION OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS
FURTHER TODAY.

SOME CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THIS
IS DUE PRIMARILY TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING AND THE DEPTH OF
THE MOISTURE THROUGH 700MBS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS. DECIDED TO ADD 15-20% TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SETUP.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIT EARLY AND THEN THEY
SHOULD LEVEL OFF AS THE CLOUDS WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE STATE.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK SYSTEM IS SHOWN BY THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT, ALL THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW W/THE WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY W/A SLIGHT WARMUP. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD/ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY EVENING W/ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD AIR COMING OUT OF CANADA.
THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL
ACTIVITY W/THIS FRONT ESPECIALLY RIGHT AT THE SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURES JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. DECIDED TO BRING THE POPS UP
TO AT LEAST 30%. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS MORE W/THE LATER
GUIDANCE TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START FALLING BACK AFTER
MIDNIGHT BUT W/CLOUDS HANGING ON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST, READINGS ARE FORECAST TO STAY ABOVE ZERO. TEMPERATURES COULD
ACTUALLY FALL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS POURS
IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT.

A BIG DISCREPANCY SHOWS UP BY THE WEEKEND IN REGARDS TO A
POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT THE REGION. THE LAST FEW RUNS
OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT W/BRINGING A LOW PRES SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF MAINE WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN SLOWER
AND MUCH WARMER W/THIS SYSTEM. THE CANADIAN GLOBAL MATCHES WELL
W/THE ECMWF. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO W/HIGH CHANCE POPS(50%) FOR
SNOW W/THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A FAST MOVER AND NOT EXPECTING A BIG EVENT AS
IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BACK AT NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS KFVE... KCAR... KPQI
THIS MORNING THEN VFR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: PERIODS OF MVFR COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ON
TUESDAY W/VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB. VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR ON WEDNESDAY FROM KHUL TO
KFVE W/-SN. VFR FOR ALL SITES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
AND THEN CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO MVFR AND PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD
OF IFR FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE THE CASE ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE -SN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. WIND SPEED
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR
MOVES ACROSS RELATIVELY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. FOR WAVES:
COMBINED SEA TODAY AND TONIGHT COMPOSED OF SOUTHWESTERLY WAVE
SYSTEM 2-3 FEET/6-7 SECONDS GENERATED FROM SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE LAST 24 HOURS AND LOCAL OFF-SHORE WIND
WAVE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS SUBORDINATE TO FETCH DISTANCE FROM COAST.
WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL RUN ON FORECAST GRIDS FOR WAVE
HEIGHTS. TIMING OF SCA STILL LOOKS GOOD AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES.


SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS LOOK BE BELOW SCA FOR TUESDAY BUT
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO SCA LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY W/THE PASSING OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DECIDED TO BRING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS W/NEAR
30 KTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS. AS A MATTER OF FACT, IT LOOKS LIKE A
BRIEF REPRIEVE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA
CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY. THIS SECOND ROUND OF SCA IS DUE TO A
FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. TRIED TO SHOW
THE TRANSITION W/WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN BUILDING AGAIN ON THURSDAY TO SCA LEVELS.

 &&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE/MCB
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT


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