Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 272345
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
745 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north of the area this evening. A weak cold
front will cross the region on Saturday. This front will lift north
of the area as a warm front Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
745 pm update...will do another update as a batch of convection
moving out of Quebec is holding together as it moves into Somerset
County with cloud to ground lightning strikes detected. Expect
the activity will weaken as it moves east, but will keep in the
mention of scattered thunderstorms for another couple of hours.

previous discussion...
SFc low pressure sitting in cntrl Quebec with assoc cdfnt draped
sw back into srn Ontario wl mv east ovrngt. Skies hv clrd up into
nrn zones this aftn but stratus rmns locked ovr most of the region
as of 19z. Significant low-lvl moisture wl lkly rmn locked under
subsidence inversion tonight and where skies do clr, fog wl
develop.

Frontal bndry wl slide thru and bisect CWA by 12Z in the morning.
Hv isold-lochc pops acrs far nw this evng but fropa wl mostly be
dry as it drops south. May see isold thunder along the coast drg
the aftn as front conts to slide south.

As far as temps go, expect min temps to drop into the l/m-50s
areawide tonight. Maxes on Sat wl only climb into the lwr 70s acrs
the north bhnd front while Downeast locations wl rise into the
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak area of high pressure will be across the north Sunday
evening. Clouds will increase as moisture, cascading over the top of
the ridge, begins to approach ahead of a warm front. This will be
followed by a mostly cloudy day on Sunday. Low pressure lifting west
of the area Sunday will continue to draw moisture north along the
warm front bringing rain across the north with just a chance for
some showers Downeast. Showers will likely continue overnight Sunday
night, especially over central and northern areas. By Monday, the
warm front will be north of the area and warm and very humid air
will be across the region as low pressure tracks well to the
north. Lots of moisture in the region will keep skies mostly
cloudy and a few showers may still be around. An isolated
thunderstorm is possible, mainly during the afternoon. Sounding
profiles show some weak shear but also weak capes around 100 j/kg
with limited heating. The humid air moving in over the cooler
waters will likely result in some fog along the coast on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showery weather will continue through Tuesday as a couple of
shortwaves will slide across the region. Ridging builds in
thereafter, leading to a dry spell Wednesday and Thursday. Low
pressure will cross to our north on Friday while dragging its
attendant cold front across northern New England. There`s some
disagreement between the long-range models as to the strength and
timing of this front, but at the least expect we`ll see some
showers as it goes through. Temperatures will be warmest earlier
in the period; Tuesday`s highs will top out in the 80s across the
Central Highlands down through interior Downeast, while elsewhere
should see mid to upper 70s. Highs will mainly be in the 70s
thereafter, though the coast will remain cooler Thursday and
Friday owing to onshore flow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Restrictions will remain MVFR and possibly IFR
overnight. Saturated low levels may result in low stratus and fog
at all terminals tonight before improving to VFR by mid-morning.

SHORT TERM: VFR to MVFR conditions are expected Saturday night.
MVFR to IFR conditions are expected on Sunday then IFR to LIFR
conditions in low clouds and some fog are likely Sunday night in
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Seas and winds will remain below SCA through tomorrow.
Areas of fog will develop over the waters tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA saturday
night through Sunday night. Winds may reach SCA in gusts over the
offshore waters on Monday. Very humid air over the waters may
result in areas of dense fog on Monday. IFR conditions will give
way to VFR through the day Tuesday. VFR will prevail Tuesday night
and Wednesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/Farrar
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Hastings
Aviation...CB/Farrar/Bloomer
Marine...CB/Farrar/Bloomer



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