Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 162315
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
715 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will slide east across Quebec tonight
and Thursday as high pressure builds in from the west. High
pressure will crest over the area Thursday night. A warm front
will approach on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
7pm Update...
A few changes to sky cover late tonight into early tomorrow to
increase sky cover in northeast areas, as a shortwave rotating
around the upper level in Quebec looks to bring partly to mostly
cloudy skies for northeast areas. Another item of interest is
upper level smoke which has moved into most of New England and
the Canadian Maritimes. This smoke is from fires in the
Northwest Territories, Northern Saskatchewan, Northern Manitoba,
and Northwest Ontario. The smoke will remain aloft and pose no
impact to surface air quality or visibility.

Previous Discussion...
A cool upper low in central Quebec will be sliding slowly east
tonight as high pressure builds in from central Canada. Surface
low pressure associated with the upper trough combined with the
approaching high will increase the gradient across the area
tonight, especially over the north. This will maintain a light
breeze across the north overnight. Otherwise, tonight will be
mostly clear across the area, with partial cloudiness over the
far north with some clouds from the Quebec trough. Thursday will
then be mostly sunny across central and Downeast areas with
partial cloudiness over the far north where some stratocumulus
from the upper low will be straying across. Temperatures tonight
and Thursday will average around 5 degrees below average for
this time of year. A high surf advisory will be up for the coast
tonight and Thursday as swell up to 6 feet arrive at our coast
from Hurricane Gert. The hurricane is passing around 500 miles
south of the coast and heading northeast out to sea into the
open Atlantic.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The start of the period will find the local area under a ridge
of higher pressure. A low will be to the east over the Canadian
Maritimes, and a frontal system will be stretching from the
Great Lakes to the coast of Virginia. By Friday afternoon the
cold front will move into SW Maine. Friday evening to central
Maine, then the the Maine/New Brunswick border by Saturday
morning. Higher pressure will begin to build into the area
Saturday afternoon through the end of the period.

Loaded a blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor
differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the
coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For QPF used
GFS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A high pressure will be building over the area, as a cold front
moves east into New Brunswick, with an associated low over
central Quebec continues to move east. Sunday morning a trough
of lower pressure will move through Northern Maine, bringing a
few showers. The trough will clear the area Sunday afternoon,
and the high pressure ridge will dominate the weather through
Monday evening. A weak cold front will move through Maine
Monday night and will be east of the area Tuesday Morning.
Another cold front will move into western Maine Wednesday
morning, then to New Brunswick by the end of period Thursday
morning.

Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models,
however the solution leans more towards the GFS solution. Used
NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor
tool.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected at all sites tonight and
Thursday. Ceilings of around 4000 feet should occur late tonight
into Thursday morning over northeast Maine, which is just above
MVFR levels.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions at all sites to start the period. A
cold front will move into the area Friday afternoon bringing
increase clouds and decreasing ceilings and visibilities. MVFR
conditions at BGR and BHB mid afternoon Friday, decreasing to
IFR Friday evening. MVFR conditions at HUL and PQI Friday
evening, decreasing to IFR late Friday evening. MVFR CAR and FVE
late Friday evening IFR after midnight. The cold front will
clear the area Saturday morning with higher pressure building
in. Improving conditions south to north with all sites returning
to VFR by early afternoon. MVFR conditions on Sunday for CAR,
FVE, and PQI as a trough moves through northern Maine bringing a
few showers to the area, otherwise VFR through the end of the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SCA for high seas from hurricane Gert will be up
today and tonight. This will be a long period swell of around 13
seconds will seas up to 6 ft tonight into Thursday. West winds
may approach 25 kt in a few gusts Thursday as high pressure
builds down from the northwest.

SHORT TERM: An SCA maybe required on Saturday as a cold frontal
system moves through the Gulf of Maine waters. Winds and seas
will below SCA during the remainder of the period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Long period swell of around 13 seconds will affect the Downeast
coast of Maine from this evening through late in the day Thu.
The seas will build to around 6 ft on the coastal waters tonight
into Thursday morning with the largest component of the seas
being long period swell from Gert. High surf will affect the
beaches producing rip currents and localized beach erosion.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer/Foisy
Short Term...Norton
Long Term...Norton
Aviation...Bloomer/Foisy/Norton
Marine...Bloomer/Foisy/Norton
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Bloomer



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