Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 250007 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
707 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for 00z aviation.

&&

.AVIATION...

Vfr conditions will continue into the evening hours. Winds will
subside at ALI/VCT/CRP over the next hour or two, but may remain a
elevated at LRD through the evening. Low chance of mvfr conditions
late tonight/early Monday morning at VCT. Any low clouds/br that
develops will mix around 14z, with vfr conditions thereafter.
Chances of showers and storms will slightly improve on Monday, but
will not mention in the forecast just yet. Light and variable
winds tonight will become more southeasterly on Monday with some
gusts around 20 knots in the afternoon at ALI/CRP.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 409 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday night)...

Mid/upper level high dominating the south and southwest CONUS
today has kept the majority of convection from developing today,
though a few showers have managed to pop up across the offshore
waters. Ridge will retrograde away from the region tonight as an
inverted trough and disturbances tracks west across the northern
Gulf of Mexico towards the region. Moisture increases with
precipitable water values reaching above 2 inches across the Gulf
waters and Victoria Crossroads. Majority of convection will remain
east of the region until past the end of the period, but expect
at least isolated showers overnight, with isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms Monday and Monday night. Temperatures
will be a few degrees cooler Monday owing to increased cloud cover
and rain across the region.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...

Confident that an upper trough/low will move westward across the
CWA/MSA Tuesday/Wednesday followed by a quasi-stationary weakness
in the upper heights over the CWA/MSA Thursday-Saturday (GFS
ensemble mean.) The NAM deterministic predicts the PWAT values to
2 standard deviations greater than the July normal by Tuesday
(reasonable given the most recent PWAT values over the Gulf of
Mexico per the SPoRT CIRA LPW.) Expect the combination of upper
forcing and copious moisture to contribute to at least scattered
convection Tuesday/Wednesday over much of the CWA/MSA. The GFS
deterministic decreases moisture significantly over the CWA/MSA
Thursday yet increases PWAT Friday. However only confident in the
scenario whereby at least normal PWAT values persist Thursday-
Sunday. Given the anticipated weakness in the upper height pattern
over the CWA/MSA...will simply forecast diurnal isolated
convection mainly over the CWA and nocturnal over the MSA
Thursday- Sunday. (Isolated convection generally consistent with
the SuperBlend.)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  95  78  93  79  /  10  30  20  50  20
Victoria          77  95  77  92  77  /  10  40  30  50  30
Laredo            79 102  79 102  79  /  10  10  10  30  20
Alice             76  99  77  96  77  /  10  20  20  40  20
Rockport          81  93  80  89  80  /  10  30  30  50  30
Cotulla           78 103  77  98  77  /  10  10  10  40  20
Kingsville        77  98  78  95  78  /  10  20  20  40  20
Navy Corpus       81  92  81  88  81  /  10  20  20  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION



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