Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 290856
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
356 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...

Deterministic NAM/ECMWF/GFS and GFS ensemble mean suggest that the
upper low will meander just offshore during the period. Yet...
the foregoing depict the sfc trough over the ERN CWA. Thus...
expect scattered/numerous convection Today near the Coast and
offshore with lower POPs central/west CWA. Low confidence with
regard to sfc forcing Tuesday...yet expect copious moisture to
maintain scattered convection...especially over the ERN CWA/MSA
near the upper low. During the period...rip current risk low and
maximum heat index values over the CWA below 100F. Tide at Bob
Hall Pier between 1.5 and 2ft msl...yet expect magnitudes to
remain below 2ft msl.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...

Mid level low is prog to slowly shift southwest across the W Gulf
Tuesday Night...allowing for renewed nocturnally driven convection
along/offshore of the Mid TX Coast. 00z ECMWF wants to advect a
potent vorticity lobe across the eastern half of the CWA through the
night...and in turn develops a large area of heavy precip. This
seems a little overdone and have leaned towards the tempered GFS and
NAM. The mid level low should continue to shift SW through the day
Wed with isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection
developing during the day across inland areas...with similar
diurnally driven convective setup expected Thursday. Drier air aloft
is then prog to spread across the CWA by late in the week resulting
in minimal precip chances and hotter max temps...with strengthening
mid level ridging then maintaining hot conditions over Labor Day
Weekend.

Tropical Depression 9...approx 100 miles west of Key West FL...is
currently expected to have minimal impacts across South Texas. At
this time...an increase in long period swell may enhance the rip
current risk late this week along Gulf-facing beaches. Please see
National Hurricane Center products for the latest forecast
information on Tropical Depression 9.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    89  76  87  76  95  /  60  40  50  20  20
Victoria          87  74  87  73  95  /  60  40  50  20  20
Laredo            91  76  91  75  96  /  30  30  40  20  10
Alice             90  75  89  73  96  /  50  40  50  20  20
Rockport          86  78  86  77  93  /  60  40  50  30  20
Cotulla           90  75  90  75  96  /  40  30  40  20  10
Kingsville        90  75  89  74  95  /  50  40  50  20  30
Navy Corpus       85  78  85  78  93  /  60  40  50  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM



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