Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 202328
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
528 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...STEADY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE TEMPO IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT FOR
ALI/CRP SITES. SOME LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD NOT
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT VIS RESTRICTIONS WITH THE THICK STRATUS DECK
IN PLACE. GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN HANDLING THE STRATUS WELL...AND
THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW...DESPITE GUIDANCE
INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...THINK WE WILL LIKELY
KEEP THE MVFR STRATUS DECK. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS S TX TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
NELY FLOW. JUST ABV THE SFC...WINDS ARE PROGD TO BECOME MORE S TO SW
WHICH WILL DRAW MOISTURE OVR THE SHALLOW COLD DOME AND BRING PATCHY
-DZ/BR TO THE COASTAL BEND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND COMBINE WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE THAT IS PROGD TO
TRACK ACROSS S TX THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE PATCHY
FOG/DZ SPREADING N AND W ACROSS MUCH OF S TX...AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHC OF -RA ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS
TO THE E THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...PRECIP CHCS ARE EXPECTED
TO END FROM W TO E. STRATUS/DZ WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT
TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SUNDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE...BUT A TAD WARMER
ACROSS THE W WITH UPPER 60S AS SOME SUN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THRU
THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING ABOVE THE SFC IS PROGD FOR SUN
NIGHT LEADING TO A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR RADIATIONAL FOG.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG FOR SUN NIGHT BUT IF WINDS ARE
SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT...SOME AREAS MAY SEE DENSE FOG.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DESPITE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED OVER SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD/THIS LONG TERM FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE
CHANGES ENSUING DURING THE WEEK...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS
OFFSHORE (HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE WATCH YET AS STILL A BIT EARLY AND
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DURATION OF THESE CONDITIONS). BRIEF WARM
UP ON MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT COMES DOWN EARLY TUESDAY. GOING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT (THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT). SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY BEHIND FRONT ON TUESDAY
COULD BRING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY
BEFORE THE UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST LATE TUESDAY. NEXT UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...AND MAIN IMPACTS FOR SOUTH TEXAS ARE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND TEMPERATURES (AS WELL AS HUMIDITY). HOWEVER...
ONCE AGAIN... APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF SOUTH
TEXAS...AND MOISTURE WILL NOT RETURN ENOUGH IN TIME FOR THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WHICH APPEARS/IS FORECAST TO COME DOWN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE A BIT BETTER ON THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND STILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY (MAYBE SOME WEAK
CONVECTION/RAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS). COOLER AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    52  63  53  75  60  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          47  62  51  73  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            50  67  54  80  54  /  10  10  10   0  10
ALICE             51  64  51  78  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          54  63  52  72  60  /  10  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           48  66  50  79  49  /  10  10  10   0  10
KINGSVILLE        53  63  51  78  59  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       56  64  57  72  62  /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION






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