Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 282033
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
233 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...WHILE THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...A
A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES WILL MERGE AND DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TEXAS THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS HAVE FINALLY BACKED TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING IN HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE TO THE COASTAL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE BRUSH COUNTRY
TONIGHT. EXPECT FOG/LOW STRATUS TO FORM ALONG THE COAST AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND MOVE INLAND. SOME AREAS COULD SEE DENSE FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT AROUND A CATEGORY COOLER THAN TODAY.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AND PUSH THE FOG SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND A DIGGING UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. INBETWEEN THE TWO IS A QUICKLY
FLATTENING RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A WEAK IMPULSE COMING
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND ON FRIDAY...BRINGING AN END TO
OUR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND REINTRODUCING CHANCES FOR
RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER IMPULSE LOOKS TO DRIVE A
REINFORCING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEFLY STRONGER
WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE LARGE DIFFERENCES ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WESTERN CUTOFF LOW AND ITS EFFECTS ON SOUTH TEXAS WEATHER FOR THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. GFS HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION...DEVELOPING A LARGE MOISTURE POOL IN
A REGION OF STRONG LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MEANDERS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO...MUCH MORE SO THAN ANY OTHER MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL OR EVEN WHAT THE GFS ITSELF HAS DEPICTED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR
THE MOMENT WILL TREAT THE GFS AS AN OUTLIER AND ALIGN THE FORECAST
CLOSER TO THE CMC AND ECMWF...WITH THE COASTAL BEND ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES. EXPECT UPPER
SUPPORT AND BEST MOISTURE TO BE SHUNTED EAST OF THE COASTAL BEND BY
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH A DRYING TREND FORECAST
THEREAFTER.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
FALL BELOW NORMALS BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE ONLY SLOWLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  76  53  65  54  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          53  76  49  61  49  /   0  10  10  10  30
LAREDO            56  79  56  68  57  /   0  10  10  20  40
ALICE             53  79  53  66  54  /   0  10  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          56  72  52  62  53  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           51  78  51  62  54  /   0  10  10  20  50
KINGSVILLE        55  78  54  66  55  /   0  10  10  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       58  73  55  64  57  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM




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