Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 281500
AFDCRP
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1000 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED GRIDS TO MENTION IN ISOLATED THUNDER FOR
SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS REMAINS WITH A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAP IN PLACE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO ISOLATED
DEVELOP THROUGH TODAY. TWEAKED TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO FOLLOW TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES MADE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS REDVLPG THROUGH LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW -SHRA`S WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING...MAINLY CLOSE TO THE VCT TAF SITE...BUT LITTLE TO NO
AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHC OF TSRA`S FROM COT TO VCT...BUT DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF
OCCURENCE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE JUST S OF THE CWA AND A
CAPPING INVERSION. HAVE MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA`S THIS
MORNING WITH A 10 POP...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO NE
CWA DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. BY THIS AFTERNOON...A
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE ACROSS S TX. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A CAP...AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN. HOWEVER ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN CWA WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKEST AND THE
MOISTURE IS A TAD DEEPER. A MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO
MOVE ACROSS MEX AND APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE TONIGHT. MODELS PROG A
POOL OF DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVG TOWARD
THE RIO GRANDE AND THEN SKIRTING THE NW CWA OVERNIGHT. THUS...KEPT
CHC POPS ACROSS THE NW TONIGHT. NONE OF THE MODELS REALLY BRING IT
TOO FAR EAST INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT BUT KEPT A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS
THE E FOR ANY WEAKENING STORMS THAT MANAGE TO TRACK TO THE COASTAL
BEND. CHCS INCREASE FARTHER E ON FRI AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE
CONTINUES TO TRACK E ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS SHOW THE CAP
WEAKENING ALONG WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND SLIGHTLY MORE
MOISTURE ON FRI. BEST DYNAMICS/MOISTURE ARE PROGD TO BE N OF THE
CWA WITH THE TAIL END MVG ACROSS THE CWA. THEREFORE...KEPT THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NRN CWA. KEPT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE FOR
TEMPS TODAY/TONIGHT BUT WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER FRI DUE TO
THE INCREASED MOISTURE/PRECIP. AS FOR WINDS...WENT BREEZY ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND THIS AFTERNOON AND A MODERATE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH THURSDAY)...PATTERN REMAINS WET FOR
THE MOST PART...WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING FROM UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO
FRONTAL FORCING BY SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...WITH RIDGE BRINGING
NW/N FLOW ALOFT AND THUS ALLOWING A WEAK BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN.
WILL HAVE LOW-END CHANCE POPS/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY. THINK MOST OF THE
CONVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE NORTH CLOSER TO THE FRONT...BUT BY
SUNDAY CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE PROXIMATE TO AREA. AFTER SUNDAY...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE UPPER
FLOW GENERALLY FROM THE NNW. STILL...WILL HAVE AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY AS MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN JUST SUFFICIENT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. THINK BY WEDNESDAY
MOST OF THE CWFA WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE RAIN...SO AM ONLY GOING
TO MENTION PRECIP OVER THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BE THE
MOST ALONG WITH SURFACE FORCING/CONVERGENCE WITH COASTLINE.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE A DECREASE (SLIGHTLY) IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...NOT SO MUCH FOR THE FRONT BUT
MAINLY FOR THE RAIN AND CLOUDS. MAY EVEN SEE SOME UPPER 60S NORTHERN
AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONT WEAKENS/DISSIPATES AND THUS THE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE JUST A BIT. OVERALL...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGHS MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR EARLY JUNE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  77  88  76  88  /  10  20  40  20  20
VICTORIA          87  75  86  74  88  /  20  20  50  20  40
LAREDO            94  77  93  76  92  /  10  30  20  10  20
ALICE             92  76  91  75  91  /  20  20  40  20  20
ROCKPORT          86  79  86  79  89  /  10  20  40  20  20
COTULLA           92  74  90  72  91  /  20  40  30  20  20
KINGSVILLE        91  77  89  75  90  /  20  20  40  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       86  79  86  78  86  /  10  20  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM




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