Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 181126 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
626 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See AVIATION discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

A bit more strato-cumulus seen on the fog channel than was
expected, so have included SCT V TEMPO MVFR CIGS at KALI and KVCT
this morning. Am expecting VFR conditions after that, Think MVFR
CIGS will stay out of KLRD and KCRP, but it cannot be ruled out.
Otherwise, should be VFR by 15Z and is expected to stay that way
through 06Z, before some low clouds/MVFR conditions possible again
after 19/06Z over KALI and KVCT. At this time, with the potential
for MVFR conditions that late in the forecast, prefer to hold off
on putting TEMPOs that late in the period but later shifts may add
if confidence increases. Otherwise, not a lot of change to the
06Z TAFs with south winds becoming southeast with the sea-breeze
then diminish and go south after 06Z eastern terminals. Winds will
actually go light and variable toward the end of the TAF period.
Could not rule out some fog at KALI and KVCT but for now will keep
things MVFR.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 414 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...

Borderline moisture availability is expected today over South Texas,
with the main concern today once again the heat (and associated
indices). Current radar is showing some very weak echoes over the
gulf waters this morning. These are not expected to last long, and
any convection today will be very isolated and/or very short-lived.
Prefer to handle any convection today with short-term forecasts if
that is even needed. For Saturday, there is a bit better chance for
some isolated showers, since the mid level theta-e ridge will be
moving into the area overnight over the gulfmex then inland during
the day. Still am not going to go more than 10 POPs as overall the
moisture is still marginal, but perhaps just enough over the inland
areas with daytime heating to generate some isolated showers (looks
maybe a bit capped for thunder).

Concerning the heat, will be another warm/hot day over South Texas
with heat indices 105 to 109 over most areas. Some areas could see
110 to 112 for an hour or two, but overall the concern for
widespread heat indices 110 or more for two hours or more is not
likely. Thus, will issue a SPS today but mention isolated areas
having indices of 110 or more for an hour or two. Will brief day
shift to monitor. Looks like the dew points are a bit lower on
Saturday and the clouds will be a tad more prevalent, so the heat
indices will be between 105 and 109 over most areas (Kingsville will
be their 110 or 111 as usual).

Finally, BOY020 is reporting 2 foot swells with 11 second periods.
Models indicating these swells will diminish a bit today but still
be enough to bring rip current risk to the moderate category (and
probably moderate on Saturday too).

MARINE (Today through Saturday)...

Should have no significant issues on the waters, with weak to
moderate southerly flow continuing and seas no more than 4 feet.
Isolated showers in the morning.

LONG TERM (Saturday night through Thursday)...

The upper level ridge will begin losing its hold across the region
early next week as a TUTT low develops over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and steadily approaches the region.  Slight chances for
convection will develop on Sunday into Sunday night across the
coastal waters.  Models continue bringing the TUTT low into the
middle Texas coastal waters on Monday, with an increase to chance
PoPs across the coastal and eastern portions of the region.  The GFS
continues to push the system inland more swiftly, while the ECMWF
now keeps the TUTT low offshore over the western Gulf before forming
a shear axis.  Will maintain 20-30% PoPs across the eastern zones
Tuesday, but with lower confidence in the forecast late in the week,
will cap PoPs at a slight chance for the remainder of the period.

Temperatures are expected to drop down closer to seasonable values
early next week with less subsident conditions aloft and more cloud
cover across the region.  Highs will range from the lower 90s along
the coast to near 100 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains. Portions
of the region will still see heat index values of 105 to 109 degrees
daily though.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    96  78  96  77  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
Victoria          98  77  98  76  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
Laredo           104  78 104  78 103  /   0  10  10   0  10
Alice            101  76 101  75 101  /  10   0  10  10  10
Rockport          93  82  94  80  94  /  10  10  10  10  10
Cotulla          103  76 102  77 102  /   0   0  10   0  10
Kingsville       101  77 100  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       95  83  95  81  93  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION


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