Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 302338 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
638 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. Winds variable across the terminals this evening as surface
high pressure continues to slide farther east. A seabreeze has
returned winds out of the SE along the coast affecting CRP. May
see a bit more weakening and variablity at ALI-VCT as the
seabreeze moves farther inland which may lead to a brief SE
development. But overnight, with the exception of maintained SE
flow at LRD, cooler temps inland should turn winds more W-SW-ly
before becoming southerly Friday morning. Wind will increase
through Friday with with S-SE flow with gusts near 25KTs in the
afternoon.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 327 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Quick update to cancel Small Craft Advisory early as winds and
seas have fallen below advisory levels.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 258 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...

A clear, quiet and cool night is on tap tonight as weak ridging
aloft briefly dominates across the area. Winds are quickly dropping
off this afternoon as the associated surface high settles across S
TX. Winds are expected to veer around to the SE and S through this
evening, but speeds will be very light, thus direction will likely
be vrb through the evening. Winds are expected to strengthen
slightly from the S late tonight and toward early Fri morning.
Breezy to windy S-SE winds are expected by Thu afternoon as another
storm system moves across the Rockies toward TX. The strengthening
onshore winds will usher low level moisture back into S TX through
Fri and Fri night. This will also lead to a warming trend and
increasing humidity through the short-term. Although moisture will
be increasing through Fri/Fri night, it will remain too low for any
signicant precip.

Marine (Tonight through Friday Night)...

Winds and seas are quickly decreasing across the region this
afternoon as surface high pressure settles across the region. A weak
to moderate onshore flow is expected to return overnight tonight and
strengthen to moderate, to occasionally strong, levels Friday as the
high pressure moves east of the area and low pressure deepens across
West TX. Onshore flow will continue to strengthen Fri night with
Small Craft Advisories likely.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...

Models are in good agreement with the upper low over New Mexico on
Saturday. Moisture will steadily increase Saturday as onshore flow
strengthens with the deepening of a surface low over northwest
Texas. Still appears region will be dealing with significant
inversion Saturday with strong southwest flow aloft spreading the
elevated mixed layer to the east. Only the GFS model shows the
possibility of convective inhibition weakening in the afternoon.
Stronger shear and increasing moisture will be in place for Saturday
night as a short wave trough moves out of northern Mexico. Threat
for severe storms could go up for region Saturday night into Sunday
as the southern extension of the upper trough moves across southwest
Texas. The upper trough/low is expected to be over northwest Texas
by 00Z Monday with Pacific cold front moving into the coastal waters
and drier air covering the inland areas. Dry conditions will exist
for Monday and Tuesday as the upper level trough moves east. Models
are not in agreement handling the next short wave trough moving
through the Intermountain West Monday. This system should be in the
central plains by Wednesday but some of the models depict a closed
system while GFS ensemble shows a more progressive trough. May see
enough moisture return for Wednesday to provide a slight chance of
rain ahead of the next frontal boundary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    59  87  70  85  72  /   0   0  10  20  30
Victoria          57  87  67  84  70  /   0   0  10  30  40
Laredo            63  95  69  94  69  /   0   0  10  10  20
Alice             56  92  68  89  71  /   0   0  10  20  20
Rockport          64  86  72  83  72  /   0   0  10  20  30
Cotulla           57  95  66  91  67  /   0   0  10  20  40
Kingsville        58  92  69  88  71  /   0   0  10  20  20
Navy Corpus       67  85  72  83  73  /   0   0  10  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION


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