Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 292040
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
340 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN TEXAS.
AS A RESULT...WIND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...WITH OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL
BEND REMAINING WINDY YET BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS LOW
WILL BRING A FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS...BUT SHOULD
NOT AFFECT SOUTH TEXAS MUCH WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX A BIT HEADING INTO MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE CLIMB THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AS WELL AS WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO H85 SHIFT MORE OUT OF
THE S-SE ON MONDAY BRINGING A MORE MARINE INFLUENCE. WITH THIS
SAID...COOLED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY BUT REMAINED IN THE UPPER
70S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH LOW TO
MID 80S ACROSS THE WEST. INCREASED CAPE DEVELOPS MONDAY...BUT WITH
A PRETTY STRONG CAP OFF THE SURFACE PERSISTING THROUGH THE
EVENING...WILL EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE NIL. HOWEVER AM
CONCERNED MORE HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTH ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE IN COAHIULA. MOISTURE INCREASES IN
THE MIDLEVELS AND THIS SHORTWAVE COULD FIRE OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...WHICH MAY MOVE INTO
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY...SOMETHING COULD
DEVELOP BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BELOW H5...ACTIVITY MAY BE
HINDERED QUICKLY. AND WITH NONE OF THE 4-KM WRF NOR THE GLOBAL
MODELS PICKING UP ON ANY ACTIVITY EITHER...WILL ONLY KEEP MENTION
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LESS THAN 20 POPS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND NEARSHORE AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN BAYS.
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO STRONG LEVELS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT OVER
THE EXTREME FAR END OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS...BUT FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE OFFSHORE AREA...A MODERATE FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH SPLIT
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH A RIPPLE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
LIFTING FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. 12Z MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE THEIR TREND OF BEING WEAKER WITH MOISTURE RETURN AND AS A
RESULT LESS BULLISH ON POPS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN OVERALL LOOK TO
BE OVER INLAND COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH GRIDS REFLECT A SOLUTION
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...AS THE GFS IS FASTER AND WEAKER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO FEATURE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS...WITH DRIER AND WARMER AIR PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. MODELS THEN BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMALS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN COOLING OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  81  66  80  66  /  10  10  10  20  40
VICTORIA          62  81  64  81  64  /  10  10  10  20  40
LAREDO            64  88  67  83  66  /   0  10  10  20  40
ALICE             64  85  65  82  65  /  10  10  10  20  40
ROCKPORT          67  79  67  79  66  /  10  10  10  20  40
COTULLA           62  85  64  81  64  /   0  10  10  20  40
KINGSVILLE        65  83  66  82  66  /  10  10  10  20  40
NAVY CORPUS       68  79  68  78  67  /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM




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