Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 270430
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1030 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...CAVU THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY LVAR
OVERNIGHT BECMG NE/ELY AFTER SUNRISE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A WEAK
FROPA. FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS EAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...WEAK FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HV ANY CLOUDS OR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. MAY SEE A LITTLE STRATO-CU NEAR CRP VERY LATE
IN THE PERIOD AND BEYOND AS FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE BUT NO AVIATION
IMPACTS EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...WARMER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE DUE TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AND LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DECOUPLING WINDS THIS EVENING UNDER CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH TEMPS RANGING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOLLOWING IN ITS
WAKE...REACHING SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THANKSGIVING DAY THAN COMPARED TO TODAY DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS...YET CONTINUE TO BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES TO THE LOWER 70S OUT WEST UNDER FULL SUNSHINE.
ENERGY FROM A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THURSDAY CREATING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO PROG THE
CONUS UPPER PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WHICH WL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE CWA/MSA (IN
RESPONSE TO SFC TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS DUE TO QUASI-ZONAL
UPPER FLOW) AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MSTR (GFS
DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS.) GFS DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT DEPICT PWAT
VALUES NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLD
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND/MSA SUNDAY. THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF A COLD
FRONT INTO SRN TX MONDAY AFTN (THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ADDS CREDENCE
TO THIS FRONTAL TIMING/PSN.) CONCUR WITH THIS SOLN AND ANTICIPATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION OWING TO MSTR
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT AT LEAST SCEC
ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  47  71  54  74  /   0   0   0   0  10
VICTORIA          74  45  69  49  73  /   0   0   0   0  10
LAREDO            78  47  74  53  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             76  46  73  53  75  /   0   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          69  53  68  60  72  /   0   0   0   0  10
COTULLA           77  42  69  47  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        76  46  72  53  75  /   0   0   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  55  69  59  73  /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JV/71...AVIATION




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