Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 050032
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
732 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR SHOWED CONVECTION NEARLY DISSIPATED. AM
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS EVENING BUT COULD SEE REDVLPMNT TOWARD SAT MORNING ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE WATERS. THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW
A MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS OF 2.2 INCHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS PROG THE
MOISTURE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION...POSSIBLY SCT ACROSS THE VCT AREA...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SAT MORNING. OVERALL...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD
SAT MORNING...DUE TO A MIX OF CIGS AND VSBY`S. ALI MAY EXPERIENCE
VSBY`S DOWN TO IFR LEVELS BRIEFLY SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REDVLP BY MID MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF
CONVECTION SAT WITH VCT HAVING THE BEST CHC OF STORMS.
THEREFORE...HAVE A VCSH MENTIONED IN THE TAF FOR VCT...ALTHOUGH
THE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR CRP...ALI AND LRD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MODELS ARE SHOWING
CONSENSUS THAT SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD HAVE WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH LESS CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...AND NO MENTION OF RAIN NEAR THE COAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE BECOMES STRONGER ON SATURDAY BUT STILL ENOUGH
MOISURE OVER THE NORTHEAST TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
SCATTERED...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. SOME CONVECTION OVER THE GULF OVERNIGHT MAY MOVE INTO
COASTAL AREAS EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WARM TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH MEANS A BIT WARMER
EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES STABILIZE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ABOUT
THE SAME TEMPERATURES (MAYBE A DEGREE COOLER) AS OBSERVED TONIGHT.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BIT LESS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE BECOMES MORE LIMITED SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL NOT MENTION ANY SHOWERS THEN...ALTHOUGH A ROGUE
SHOWER COULD POP UP LATE. AT THIS TIME...PREFER TO HOLD OFF. WEAK
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY...WITH LESS MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UPPER RIDGE BEGINS SHIFTING
SOUTHWEST AS A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF RETROGRADES
BACK WEST...WITH THE COASTAL BEND FALLING UNDER THE SHEAR AXIS.
HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS(PWAT VALUES 1.8-2.0) OVER THE MARINE/COASTAL
BEND/VCT CROSSROADS AS WELL.  EXPECT TO SEE DIURNAL PATTERN OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THESE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS WELL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND 100-102 ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
LOWS WILL STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  94  78  94  77  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          76  93  76  96  75  /  10  30  10  10  10
LAREDO            80 102  79 102  78  /  10  10  10   0  10
ALICE             75  98  75  99  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  91  80  91  80  /  20  30  10  10  10
COTULLA           78 102  77 101  76  /  10  10  10   0  10
KINGSVILLE        77  97  76  97  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       81  91  80  91  80  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM


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