Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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902
FXUS64 KCRP 211155
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
555 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...See Aviation section for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...The strength of the southerly low level jet of 40
knots and increasing surface winds has led to chaotic aviation
conditions through the night with ceilings/vsbys bouncing between
LIFR and IFR. Will continue to mention low level wind shear at ALI
and CRP through 15Z. Forecast IFR ceilings with VFR vsbys for the
coastal plains sites through 15-16Z with possible LIFR ceilings
and MVFR vsbys in patchy light drizzle. Expect MVFR ceilings will
move into LRD area early this morning but should clear out around
18Z. Ceilings forecast to lift to MVFR for inland Coastal Bend by
mid morning while ceilings hold at IFR levels from the coastal
areas to the Victoria Crossroads late morning. Ceilings will lift
to MVFR this afternoon with possibility for a brief window of VFR
conditions by 00Z Monday. But fog and low clouds will move back
into the region during the evening hours as surface winds weaken
ahead of the next cold front. Should see areas of fog over the
coastal plains during the overnight hours with LIFR ceilings/IFR
vsbys. Cold front will arrive by 09Z but fog/low clouds not
expected to lift until after 12Z Monday.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 412 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...

The mid to upper level low near the Four Corners region will move
east into western Kansas this evening and then across northern
Missouri by Monday afternoon. Surface low over the Texas Panhandle
has increased southerly low level flow over the region. KCRP VAD
wind profile showed southerly low level jet of 40 knots. Could see
some patchy drizzle with the fog over the region this morning.
Low level warm air advection along with adequately steep low level
lapse rates will lead to isolated showers mainly over the Victoria
Crossroads region this afternoon. Model forecast soundings show a
strong mid level inversion will remain over the region. Expect
thunderstorm development will be north and east of the forecast
area. Low level flow will shift to southwesterly by this afternoon
into this evening with deeper moisture axis shifting to the Upper
Texas coast. Isolated showers will be possible over the coastal
areas in advance of the front that moves into the region later
tonight. There will be a period tonight before the front arrives
when fog will redevelop mainly over the coastal plains. The cold
front will usher in drier air to the region for Monday.

MARINE (Today through Monday)...

Areas of fog along the coast were dense around midnight, but
visibilities have improved during the night as the low level flow
strengthen. But with only limited observations along the coast,
dense fog could be still over the near shore waters. Will let the
Dense Fog Advisory continue for the bays and near shore waters
this morning. Will monitor trends for the rest of the morning for
possible early cancellation. But with warm moist air moving across
the cooler shelf/bay waters, suspect fog will still be a problem
this morning. Southerly winds will be at SCEC levels across the
offshore waters today into this evening. Isolated to scattered
showers will be possible tonight in advance of the next cold
front. Areas of fog will redevelop this evening before the
stronger winds arrive toward daybreak. A moderate offshore flow is
expected behind the front Monday with SCEC conditions over the
offshore waters.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...

Cool and dry conditions expected Mon night and Tuesday as high
pressure settles across the region. Sfc high will shift east through
Tue afternoon with winds becoming more easterly ahead of another
shot of reinforcing high pressure/weak cold front. This weak cold
front is expected to move into the area late Tue night into Wed
morning. The high pressure will settle across S Tx with a trough of
low pressure developing along the coast. Models prog sufficient low
level moisture to combine with the coastal trough and an approaching
embedded short wave to bring a slight chc of -RA to the coastal
waters late Tue night. The slight chc shifts farther inland through
mid to late week as overrunning conditions develop and additional
upper level short waves track across the region. Models prog a cold
front to move through S TX Sat with rain chcs increasing ahead
and along the bdry and then ending from west to east. Drier and
cooler conditions are progged to filter into the area behind the
front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  55  72  44  66  /  10  20   0   0  10
Victoria          75  52  69  40  66  /  20  20   0   0  10
Laredo            79  51  71  44  68  /  10   0   0   0   0
Alice             80  53  71  43  67  /  10  10   0   0  10
Rockport          72  55  71  50  63  /  10  20   0   0  10
Cotulla           75  46  70  38  67  /  10   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        79  54  73  45  67  /  10  20   0   0  10
Navy Corpus       72  56  69  51  63  /  10  20   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today For the following zones:
     Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...Bays
     and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O`Connor...Coastal
     waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal
     waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20
     NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION



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