Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 051845 AAD
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1245 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOME HIGHS HAVE BEEN ACHIEVED. DID SOME OTHER UPDATES
TO SECOND PERIOD. OTHER CHANGES COMING SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF VFR CONDITIONS
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AT THIS TIME...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THAT. AM GOING TO GO WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AT KVCT ABOUT 20Z...KALI AND KLRD ABOUT 21Z AND KCRP ABOUT AN HOUR
LATER (GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE HOURS WITH TEMPO GROUPS). SHOULD STAY
VFR AFTER THAT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BEGIN
TO LOSE THEIR GUSTS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS STAY NORTH FOR THE
REMINDER OF THE TERMINAL PERIOD WITH WINDS AROUND 11 KNOTS BY
MIDNIGHT KLRD AND AFTER MIDNIGHT EASTERN TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO LET THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY EXPIRE BUT EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY MAINLY FOR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES (BUT DID INCLUDE VICTORIA COUNTY) UNTIL NOON
(WHICH MAY BE A BIT LONG) TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KNOTS ARE
STILL OCCURRING. WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED THIS
EVENING...BUT FOR NOW AM GOING TO HOLD OFF AND WAIT FOR NEW WIND
AND TEMPERATURE DATA BEFORE ISSUING SOMETHING THAT MAY HAVE TO BE
CANCELLED FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT FREEZE IS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME INLAND AREAS...AND WILL LIKELY PUT UP A SPS FOR
THAT. BASED ON FORECAST DEW POINTS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
FREEZE WARNING YET AS NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL FIT CRITERION FOR
FREEZE WARNING (2 HRS OR MORE). WILL ALSO REMOVE OR LOWER POPS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON ONCE UPDATE IS DONE. NO OTHER CHANGES YET...ENOUGH
GOING ON NOW TO TRY TO UPDATE ANYTHING MORE AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...ADJUSTED GALE WARNING AND DID MENTION SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AFTER GALE WARNINGS EXPIRED. SEE
WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES BELOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
THEN LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY AFTERNOON FROM NW TO SE. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVG ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD ALSO TAPER OFF FROM NW TO
SE THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE VERY STRONG N
WINDS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 35
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A WET...COLD AND WINDY START
TO THE DAY WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE E 2/3RDS OF THE CWA ALONG
WITH THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE NE CWA THROUGH MID MORNING.
BOTH THE WIND ADVISORY AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM AS WINDS DECREASE AND TEMPS SLIGHTLY
INCREASE. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED THE GALE WARNING FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES DUE TO THE VERY STRONG N WINDS AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE. WINDS MAY DECREASE TO BELOW GALE CRITERIA ACROSS THE BAYS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON INITIALLY THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. BUT FOR NOW...DID NOT CHANGE TIMING DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG TONIGHT WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY TO BE ISSUED ONCE THE GALE WARNING
HAS EXPIRED.

AS FOR RAIN CHCS...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM W TO E THROUGH THE DAY
AS SOMEWHAT DRIER MID LEVELS FILTER ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
DOWNGLIDING WINDS AND PWATS DROPPING TO APPROX 0.5 INCHES. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF STRAY ELEVATED TSRA THIS MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE ZONES.

TODAYS TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE VERY MUCH WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S. GUIDANCE WAS A TAD HIGHER BUT GUIDANCE
HAS TENDED TO BE TOO HIGH RECENTLY. TONIGHT MAY SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
GET DOWN TO FREEZING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF TOWARD SUNRISE.
THERE`S SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR FREEZING TEMPS DUE TO WINDS REMAINING
ELEVATED ALONG WITH SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE
ONLY A TAD WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED.
THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MOISTURE IMPROVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
RAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL ONLY MANAGE THE MID/UPPER 50S
AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND DECENT RAIN CHANCES OCCUR OVER THE
REGION. PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER TROUGH HANGS BACK TO THE WEST AND COASTAL TROUGH MEANDERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW SLIGHT TO LOW
END CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS LOWER 70S
BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    45  36  49  41  57  /  20   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          44  31  51  38  55  /  20   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            50  35  52  40  59  /  10   0   0  10  10
ALICE             48  33  48  39  58  /  10   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          46  37  50  42  55  /  20   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           49  32  50  39  58  /  10   0   0  10  10
KINGSVILLE        48  35  48  40  58  /  20   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       46  38  51  44  56  /  20   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM




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