Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 271640
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1140 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH WILL FEEL QUITE COLD CONSIDERING HOW WARM
IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM ADVECTION CREATING SOME MID/LOWER CLOUDS THIS AFTN...AND A
GENERAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BY THE EVENING. THE
SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL OH MAY MAKE A SPRINKLE IN THE NW BEFORE 7
PM...BUT ANY SHOWERS WHICH WOULD WET THE GROUND WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL EARLY TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS NEAR GRB/STL AT MID- DAY
AND WILL JUST ABOUT BISECT THE AREA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE MAIN
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
AND MOST OF THE GOOD FORCING WILL ALSO BE WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS
SYSTEM IS ALL WARM TO START AND FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE TIME. THE
TEMPS WILL ONLY COOL OFF ENOUGH OVER THE NWRN MTS TO HAVE SNOW MIX
IN WITH OR JUST START TO CHANGE TO SNOW BY SUNRISE THERE.
OTHERWISE...RAIN WILL BE THE P-TYPE. HIGH POPS ON ORDER FOR THE NW
HALF OF THE AREA ALL OF THE NIGHT...BUT RAIN MAY NOT GET SOUTH OF
THE TURNPIKE IN THE SC AND SE BY SUNRISE. QPF SEEMS TO BE A THIRD
OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
RAIN/SHOWERS ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL FINISH
SPREADING SE TO COVER THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING.
FORECAST VERY CONSISTENT AND PERSISTENT...WITH THE CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW ACROSS THE NW OCCURRING IN THE MORNING. DAYLIGHT AND THE
TAPERING OF THE PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING WILL
MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN AN INCH TO LAY DOWN
WHERE IT DOES SNOW. THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE ANY
FLAKES AT ALL. FINAL QPF IS WELL UNDER A HALF OF AN INCH. THE
FRONT DRAGS IT/S FEET WITH NO REAL UPPER TROUGHING TO OUR
WEST...IT WILL BE MORE ZONAL FLOW AT THE BOTTOM AT THE BASE OF A
BROAD TROUGH. BUT THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE SERN COS BY SUNSET.
WILL GO FOR HIGH POPS AT FIRST...AND SHRINK THEM FROM NW-S FROM
LATE MORNING TO THE EVENING. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HOLDS JUST A BIT
OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. ALSO...BY THEN...ANY PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OR JUST
SNOW IN THE LAURELS. BUT THE LOW QPF MEANS LITTLE OR NO ACCUMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEGINS WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXITS THE CWA AND WHETHER A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
THAT DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT THE
AREA. WITH COOLING 850 TEMPS...A MIX OF R/S IS POSSIBLE IF THIS
WAVE DOES INDEED DEVELOP AND TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH. AT THIS POINT
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE ONLY GIVES THE SE ZONES A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT AS OUR FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY BY MIDWEEK
AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WAVES OF COLDER AIR DIVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST WEEK
OF DECEMBER.

GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING BY
NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE AT 16Z...
STILL ALL VFR. THE CLOUDS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA ARE A AOA
FL060...SO NO WORRY OF MVFR. EARLIER SMOKE LAYER/HAZINESS HAS
MIXED OUT. RAIN SHOWERS MAY REACH BFD A LITTLE FASTER THAN
EXPECTED...BUT ONLY BY AN HOUR OR TWO. RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX WITH
SNOW AND PERHAPS GO TO ALL SNOW DURING THE 28/12-16Z PERIOD AT
BFD...BUT TAPER OFF TO NOTHING BEFORE 18Z.

PREV...
VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO OUR SOUTH. SOME WEAK STRATOCU HAS FORMED OVER THE NW
MTNS...HOWEVER IT WILL LINGER AROUND MVFR CIGS BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND CLEAR BY MID MORNING. TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR REDUCED CONDITIONS AS A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM
SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. IT SHOULD BEGIN AT BFD BETWEEN
OOZ AND 06Z. THEN AT JST BETWEEN 06Z TO 09Z...BEFORE AFFECTING
AOO...IPT AND UNV 09Z TO 12Z. MDT AND LNS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
RESTRICTIONS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IFR AT BFD AND JST IS PROBABLE...BUT
MAINLY AFTER 09Z. REDUCING CONDITIONS SHOULDN/T LAST TO
LONG...WITH SKIES LIFTING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NITE-SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

MON-WED...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU


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