Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 060539
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1239 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL START THE
NEW WORK WEEK AS A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES CLEARED NICELY BY MID EVENING...AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
FORECAST MINS OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. RETURN FLOW SHOULD
PREVENT A COMPLETE BOTTOMING OUT...BUT DID UNDERCUT CURRENT TEMPS
BY A FEW DEGREES FOR MINS. IR IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUDS WORKING
BACK INTO WESTERN AREAS OF PA AND THESE SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WEST...FURTHER HALTING THE FALLING TEMPS.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED. AS EARLIER MENTIONED...MINS ARE ACTUALLY
ABOVE NORMAL - ESP FOR THE NORTH...WHERE LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
14F TO 18F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER ON
SATURDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
MAXES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE SOUTH AND SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD AND DRY ZONAL FLOW...WITH
ANY MOISTURE WELL NORTH OF THE NEW YORK BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THAT MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS
SEEM FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE PATH AND INTENSITY OF THAT
STORM...WITH THE BUL OF THE PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE. A SUBSEQUENT
LOW IS CURRENTLY TRACKING DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE BIGGEST FORECAST QUESTION WILL BE THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT RUNS OF THE
GFS/EC HAVE INCREASED QPF...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLDER AIR FROM THE
WESTERN STORM INTERACTS FROM ANY MOISTURE FROM THE OFFSHORE
SYSTEM. GIVEN IT IS DAY 5 THERE IS TO MUCH VARIABILITY TO SETTLE
ON A SPECIFIC AMOUNT. HOWEVER CURRENT ENSEMBLES SHOW A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT- MODERATE PRECIP FAVORING THE HIGHER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS.

THE SEEMINGLY MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
DOWN INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE
EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE
CHILLY AND UNSETTLED SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL BRING A NEAR CERTAINTY OF
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND BOTH OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON AM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

MON PM-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...ESP KJST.

WED...-SHSN/MVFR CIGS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN


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