Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCTP 242128
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
528 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST
OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL
LIKELY FORM OVER THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEK...POTENTIALLY BRINGING WET
AND COOL WEATHER TO PENNSYLVANIA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING SATL LOOP SHOWING JUST A BIT OF CIRRUS SPILLING OVR
RIDGE INTO SOUTHWEST PA...WHILE SUNNY SKIES OBSERVED ELSEWHERE.
A GUSTY NW WIND...COMBINED WITH VERY LOW RH/S...CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR WILDFIRES ACROSS EASTERN PA.
HOWEVER...THE WIND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET AS BLYR
COOLS/STABILIZES.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A STORM/FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST BUT RAIN SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TONIGHT WILL
BE WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE MIDDLE SUSQ
VALLEY...WHERE GROWING SEASON BEGINS TOMORROW. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CIRRUS STREAMING IN TO LIMIT RAD
COOLING AND FROST POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THAT THE
WEATHER REALLY HASN/T BEEN CONDUCIVE TO DOING MUCH OUTDOOR GROWING
YET...WILL JUST MENTION PATCHY FROST IN THE FORECAST NOT ISSUE
FROST HEADLINES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CURRENT TIMING SHOWS RAIN OVERSPREADING MY WESTERN AREAS BETWEEN
ABOUT 15-18Z...WITH THE RAIN GENERALLY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN
THE AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS QPF IS IN THE .25" - .50" RANGE FROM THE
SYSTEM AS A WHOLE.

LATEST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE DOES ERODE THE ELEVATED STABILITY A
BIT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A COOL AIR
DAMMING SETUP TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. I AM LEAVING OUT THE MENTION
OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME...THOUGH I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF A
RUMBLE OR TWO IS HEARD BEFORE THE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LEFT FRIDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO WHAT WAS IN THE GRIDS. SHOWERS SHOULD
BE ENDING FRI NIGHT AS OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES EAST OF THE AREA.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD. THE
HIGHEST CHC WILL BE ACROSS THE NW.

STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. ON A COOL SIDE...AS
SYSTEM TAPS SOME REAL COLD AIR TO THE NORTH.

FOR MONDAY...MID SHIFT HAS A FEW SHOWERS IN ACROSS THE SW
LATE. LEFT THESE IN...BUT DID ADJUST THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF
THE HIGHER POPS DOWNWARD A LITTLE.

MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING OMEGA BLOCK SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH UPPER LOWS OVR THE PLAINS AND EAST OF NEW ENG...WHILE PA
IS IN A REGION OF RIDGING/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN BETWEEN.

HOWEVER...OUR DRY WX IS LIKELY TO COME TO AN END LATER ON
MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LVL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO DRAW
A PLUME GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD PA DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WHILE QPF VALUES WILL LIKELY NOT BE THAT HIGH EARLY
ON...SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME FROM
LATE MONDAY INTO THU. HEAVIEST QPF MAY BE LATER ON WED. DID
UP POPS A LITTLE.

WITH SE FLOW AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDS TONIGHT...WITH JUST SOME
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH SUNRISE.

A GUSTY NW WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WHEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH THE APPROACH OF
A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. MOST TERMINALS WILL BE
VFR THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN MOVES IN.

REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING FRONT. THERE
STILL COULD BE LINGERING MVFR IN SHOWERS SATURDAY IN THE WEST AS
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SWINGS BY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.

TUE...MVFR/IFR WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY EVENING OVER THE EAST.
WIND WILL GUST 20-30 MPH. DRY FINE FUELS AND LOW RH/S WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ042-
051>053-057>059-065-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
FIRE WEATHER...



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.