Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 231054
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
654 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CONDITIONS APPEAR TOO DRY TO PROMOTE ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE VERY PATCHY AND TRANSIENT
NATURE PRECLUDES THE MENTION IN ANY TAF SITES SAVE FOR FNT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 305 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST...ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY
THEN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. DESPITE THE EASTWARD TRACK OF THE
HIGH IT WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
WITH EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. AS THE HIGH TRACKS EAST...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY...BRINGING 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
+11 TO +13 CELSIUS RANGE. SUBSIDENCE AND ABUNDANT DRY AIR WILL MAKE
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TODAY. THE WARMER
AIRMASS THE FULL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES EXPECTED...ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. OVERNIGHT DESPITE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO AROUND 50 DEGREES AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARMER AIRMASS SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION.

LONG TERM...

QUIESCENT WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS PROLONGED UPPER RIDGING
TAKES HOLD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. REBOUNDING OF THE THERMAL FIELD
WILL BE MORE OR LESS COMPLETE BY 12Z WED WITH 850 TEMPS FORECAST TO
BE AT 13C, WHERE THEY WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FULL SUN EVERY DAY WILL MAXIMIZE MIXING, RESULTING IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. A PORTION OF THE UPSTREAM LOW OVER THE
FRONT RANGE IS FORECAST TO CUT BACK TO THE WEST AS PART OF A WAVE
BREAK OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW AN
ELEVATED BUBBLE OF WARM AIR TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
CONTINUED CAPPING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW-LEVEL
AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS RIDGE YIELDING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
ADDITIONAL MODERATION OF A COUPLE DEGREES. CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT COOL MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 50S EACH MORNING.
NWP TRY TO EASE A BACKDOOR FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NO FORCING AND RESIDENT DRY AIRMASS ELIMINATE PRECIPITATION THREAT.
POPS REMOVED THROUGH DAY 7.

MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL DOMINATE FOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ON THE HORIZON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THERE IS NO THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





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