Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 110449
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1049 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/

CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIODS. A FEW POCKETS
OF HAZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COULD RESULT FROM
A FEW MORE GRASS AND BRUSH FIRES THURSDAY...GIVEN THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND DAYTIME BREEZES. MOST SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIODS...BUT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
BREEZES OVER 15 KNOTS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK
MIXING THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION
WITH LOWS A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES. FOR
THURSDAY...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND LOWER 80S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
THIS WARM-UP IS THE RESULT OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND SHOWS NICELY ON GFS AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
LATER IN THE EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...A SURFACE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR RECEIVING AN
INCREASED MOIST AIRMASS FROM THE GULF. SEVERAL MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST A BRIEF TRANSITION OF THIS FEATURE INTO A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES AND
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH 8 AM FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY. THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
MORE CLOUD COVERAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
COUNTIES. FOG WILL DISSIPATE AROUND MID MORNING SATURDAY TO A
PARTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE EAST AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUT WEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS COULD RANGE BETWEEN FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  80  51  77  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  43  80  47  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     44  79  48  78  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            46  79  46  74  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           43  81  46  81  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        47  78  47  74  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             40  80  44  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        43  78  47  76  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   47  78  52  76  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       46  79  49  79  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           43  80  48  80  50 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33


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