Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 230344
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
944 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALSO INCREASED
FOG POTENTIAL COVERAGE TO AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES...BASED ON
LATEST HRRR/NAM12/ARW/NMM OUTPUT AND CURRENT T/TD TRENDS ACROSS
THIS REGION. COULD BE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
PEARSALL TO PLEASANTON TO CUERO LINE. NO CHANGES MADE TO TOMORROWS
FORECAST...WITH BREEZY AND COLDER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
COULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS THAT BRIEFLY FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
GOOD HANDLE ON FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON AND PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

AVIATION...
COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. ALL SITES
ARE NOW VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BY 06Z MVFR CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE I-35
TERMINALS. THE HRRR AND NAM BOTH BRING IFR CIGS AND VISBY INTO
SAT/SSF AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT FOR NOW HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND THE GFS AND LEFT CIGS/VISBY AT LOW END
MVFR LEVELS AT SAT/SSF STARTING AT 13Z THROUGH 17Z. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND 12Z TOMORROW MORNING WITH WINDS BEGINNING
TO PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH BY 17Z GUSTING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30
KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS AND VISBY WILL IMPROVE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH THE I-35 SITES RETURNING TO VFR BY TOMORROW EVENING. SOME
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
A FEW HOURS TOMORROW ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN AREA. HAVE
LEFT THESE OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE AND
FAIRLY LOW CHANCES.

AT DRT...WHICH JUST RECENTLY RETURNED TO VFR CIGS WILL REMAIN SO
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AROUND 08Z-10Z FOG MAY DEVELOP DROPPING
VISBY TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS WITH CIGS DROPPINGS TO MVFR. BY 14Z THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DRT CAUSING GUSTY NORTH WINDS...CLEARING OUT
THE FOG...AND RAISING CEILINGS TO VFR.

TREADWAY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED FROM NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH NEAR DEL RIO. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE REGION.
THERE IS A WIND SHIFT THAT IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA. THIS WIND SHIFT IS MOST LIKELY NOT THE TRUE COLD FRONT AS THE
COOLER AIR AND PRESSURE RISES REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. HI-RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA RETURNING TO
LIGHT FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO FOG
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE
MAY POOL AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE NORTH WINDS AND COLD AIR WILL
REACH THE THE CWA TOMORROW MORNING. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE
JUST BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SLOWLY FALLING OR NEARLY
STEADY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HI-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN A LAYER
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 700 MB FOR SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW THAT MOVES OVER THE AREA THAT WILL
LIMIT MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS AVAILABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION.
ANY RAIN TOTALS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.15
INCHES. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END BY TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CLOUDY
SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING. LOWS WILL REACH NEAR FREEZING IN THE HILL
COUNTRY TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
CHRISTMAS EVE...CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
PREVAILING FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE...IN THE LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. LOWS CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
MIDDLE 30S WITH MUCH OF THE AREA AT OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.
SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN AS WELL CHRISTMAS MORNING AND HIGHS WILL
REBOUND INTO THE 60S. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
FRONT BUT THE HILL COUNTRY COULD SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS RETURN MONDAY AND A SLOW WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN. THE GFS IS HINTING AT WEAK SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WILL FORECAST 20 POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES MONDAY.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              51  54  38  54  34 /  10  30  -    0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  50  55  37  54  31 /  10  30  -    0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     51  58  38  56  33 /  10  30  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            49  50  35  51  31 /  20  40  -    0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  57  37  57  33 /  -   10   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        49  50  36  52  32 /  20  40  -    0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             49  62  35  59  32 /  -   10  -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        51  56  37  54  32 /  10  30  -    0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  58  39  55  34 /  10  30  10  -    0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       52  59  38  58  35 /  -   20  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           52  61  38  58  34 /  -   20  -   -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





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