Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 300852
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
352 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MOSTLY STABLE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT
WARMING TREND FOR TODAY. OVER EASTERN COUNTIES...A WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE DEPTH AND A CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED AIR MASS TYPE CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES.
MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE WARMING AS WELL...AS AN UPSTREAM
TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES AND
MOISTURE. SOME MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE TROUGH DIGGING TO THE WEST WILL FURTHER DEEPEN MOISTURE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THURSDAY WITH A HUMID AND WARM DAY
EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TRACKING
NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX LATE THURSDAY...LEAVING MOST OF THE
DYNAMIC LIFT TO THE NORTH. SOME LIGHT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
MOISTURE POOLING FROM AN APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE OVER MAINLY NORTHERN COUNTIES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO DEEPER MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS SHOW MODEST
AMOUNTS OF QPF...AND THE WETTER CANADIAN MODEL IS ALSO TRENDING
DRIER THAN EARLIER RUNS. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH A
SLOWER FRONT AND HIGHER AMOUNTS OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO COME WITH SIGNIFICANT
DRYING TO ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER MIN TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EVEN SOME BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE DAYTIME. THE WRN US RIDGING
PATTERN ALOFT THAT ALLOWS FOR THE DRY NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN OVER TX
THIS WEEKEND BEGINS TO FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY WIND
RETURN IN THIS MODEL CYCLE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO A RETURN TO WARM HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  72  91  75  91 /  -   -   -   10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  69  92  72  92 /  -   -   -   10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     93  70  93  73  93 /  -   -   -   10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  69  90  73  91 /  -   -   -   10  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  70  91  74  91 /  -    0  -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        91  71  91  74  91 /  -   -   -   10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             93  70  93  73  94 /  -    0  -   10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        91  70  91  73  92 /  -   -   -   10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  72  91  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       92  72  92  76  93 /  -   -   -   10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           93  72  93  75  94 /  -   -   -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18





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