Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 270749
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
249 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...

Mid/upper level cyclonic flow has become broad and elongated with
a shear axis from Nern Mexico across the Coastal Bend to Nrn
Mississippi. A secondary shear axis at 700 mb extends nwd across
our forecast area and into Ern OK, and model consensus shows this
feature sharpening today and possibly acting as a increased
convective focus this afternoon. Another and possibly more
significant area expected to destabilize is along a mid-level
moisture gradient over S TX, and models show fair to good
agreement on the convective focus on this focus expanding
northward with time later this morning. Thus locally higher PoPs
are distributed generally along an an E-W axis 50 miles either
side of US Hwy 90, but scattered convection remains a possibility
over all of the forecast area today into early this evening.

Pwat values will again be in the 1.8 to 2.3 range over much of
the area, and slow expected storm motions could lead to more
isolated pockets of 2-3 inch rains. Should this happen over
certain areas, locallized flooding is possible, but most areas
have not seen amounts over half an inch of rain since the rain
chances increased Monday afternoon. The HWO will likely look
similar to that of yesterday, with marginal threats for heavy
downpours and wind gusts, with decreasing threats afterwards.

Weak shear over South Central TX should limit overnight rain
chances, and the mid-level shear feature that tightens over
N-cntrl TX continues to show better focus for rain chances while
Pwat values suggest better rain chances east of I-35. Thus for
Thursday, PoPs are still forecast to be isolated from the San
Antonio area and points west while low end Sct convection remains
possible over the Nrn Hill Country and East of I-35.

Given the abundance of clouds/convection over the area the next
couple days, will not stray off the blended guidance which remains
below normal today and returns to normals for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...

Rain chances continue to shrink ewrd Friday into Saturday as the
mid/upper level cyclonic shear pattern continues to weaken and is
replaced with ridging from the west. The 700 mb ridge remains more
anchored over the Sern US and Atlantic, which maintains deeper
onshore flow and moisture levels into next week. Thus daily
isolated PoPs will continue well into the extended over the
Coastal Prairies as inland areas continue to bake under the broad
upper ridging pattern. Another weakness in the mid-upper levels is
forecast move onshore from the Gulf into TX by the 00z runs of
the GFS/ECM for late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              93  76  97  76  98 /  40  30  30  10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  92  76  96  75  96 /  50  30  30  10  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     92  75  95  75  97 /  50  20  20  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            92  75  94  74  95 /  40  30  30  20  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           95  77  98  78  98 /  40  30  20  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        92  76  95  76  96 /  40  30  30  20  20
Hondo Muni Airport             91  75  95  74  96 /  50  20  20  10  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        92  75  95  75  96 /  50  20  30  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   92  77  95  76  96 /  50  20  30  10  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       91  76  95  77  96 /  50  20  20  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           93  77  97  76  97 /  50  20  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Runyen
Synoptic/Grids...Oaks



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