Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 212345
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
645 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
RAIN IS REMAINING JUST WEST OF THE KDRT TERMINAL AT THE PRESENT
TIME. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION ANYTHING IN THE TAF FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN IN THE MORNING FOR
DEL RIO AS THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED ALONG AND
NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINING
TAF SITES AND LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A SHALLOW MID LEVEL UPPER TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO WILL
GRADUALLY FLATTEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS TX OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS.
DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX
WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO
GENERATE AS IT WEAKENS. CLUSTERS OF WEAK SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COVER MUCH OF NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER INTO THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE LOOSELY DEFINED TROUGH
AXIS TO NOT CROSS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS SPILLING EAST FROM THIS AREA
SHOULD CURB HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER WESTERN SECTIONS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND LIMIT THE OVERNIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL OVER THESE AREAS AS
WELL.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BRING THE MOST
COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO SOUTH CENTRAL TX EARLY
THURSDAY BEFORE FORCING BECOMES TOO WEAK FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN
THE DAY. UPPER RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK TROUGHING FEATURE
INCREASES OVER THE SWRN US BY FRIDAY...LEAVING A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELD AND MILD AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
SHALLOW TROUGH IS PROJECTED OVER THE WRN US EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
SHOULD INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT
TROUGH HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              60  83  61  82  61 /  -   -   -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  55  83  56  82  55 /  -   -   -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  85  59  85  59 /  -   -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            58  82  59  82  58 /  -   10  10  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  83  66  83  62 /  20  10  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        58  82  58  82  58 /  -   -   -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  85  59  85  57 /  -   10  10  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        57  84  58  83  58 /  -   -   -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   59  85  59  83  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       60  86  63  84  63 /  -   -   10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  87  61  86  62 /  -   -   10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






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