Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 010835
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
335 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...EARLY THIS MORNING A SECONDARY
SURGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. JUST TO THE SOUTH A STATIONARY FROM
WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND INLAND COASTAL BEND.
MODELS CONSISTENT WITH GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
LATER THIS MORNING IN TWO GENERAL AREAS...ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA AS WELL AS UP THE RIO GRANDE AS MOISTURE RETURN TAKES PLACE.
THE SURGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING AND NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND HILL COUNTRY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALONG SHARPENING
SURFACE H85 FRONT...WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL DERIVED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. MORE
BULLISH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING POOL OF 2500-3000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. SHOULD DEEPER CONVECTION DEVELOP A
RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS VAL VERDE...KINNEY AND MAVERICK COUNTIES...GIVEN
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF
CLOSE TO 50 KTS. HAIL AND SATRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WOULD BE PRIMARY
THREATS. STORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE RIO GRANDE
INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING...ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS.
A SECOND AREA OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND THE INLAND COASTAL
PLAINS...WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY POCKET POOLS ALONG FRONT.

SURGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING. ELEVATED FORCING WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS...HILL
COUNTRY AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...LEADING TO SHOWERS. A POTENTIAL
FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AND THUNDER WILL EXIST WITH MODEST ELEVATED
CAPE. THE ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE.

COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. LOWS IN THE HILL COUNTRY DIP INTO
THE UPPER 40S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. THESE TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH CLEARING AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THIS TIME.

BY NEXT WEEKEND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE CWA
AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
GREAT BASIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
CWA AND SOME INDICATIONS BY THE MODELS OF PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE
DRY LINE AND THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO
POSSIBLY ADVANCING EAST INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              80  60  72  54  76 /  20  40  40  10   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  80  61  71  53  75 /  20  40  40  10   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     81  62  72  55  76 /  20  40  40  10   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            76  56  68  51  73 /  10  40  40  10   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           82  60  71  56  79 /  40  50  40  10   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        78  58  69  52  74 /  20  40  40  10   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             81  62  72  54  78 /  20  40  40  10   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        79  61  71  55  75 /  20  40  40  10   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  63  73  56  75 /  40  50  50  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  62  72  56  77 /  20  40  40  10   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           82  64  73  58  78 /  20  40  30  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN


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