Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 110926
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
326 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...

Main weather highlights will be the well-above normal temperatures
this afternoon and then a weak cold front passage overnight into
Tuesday morning. No rain or clouds are expected with the frontal
passage with a cool off of 10F Tuesday vs. today. Relative humidity
values will fall below 20 percent this afternoon but winds will
remain below 10 mph during peak heating hours.

Synoptic pattern this morning per water vapor imagery and RAP
analysis shows a brisk moving Alberta clipper low pressure system
embedded with a larger longwave trough across the central and eastern
CONUS. A ridge is located across the intermountain west with a weak
closed low just off the coast of Baja California Peninsula that will
spread some high clouds across the region today.

Weak west winds today combined with dry air, ample sun, and warming
H925 temperatures will result in the warmest day of the week as
temperatures climb into the low to mid 70s areawide. This will be
8-10F degrees above normal. As the Alberta Clipper shifts southeast
across the Missouri and Mississippi River basins by late tonight it
will merge with the broader trough and strengthen NW flow through the
atmospheric column over Texas. The flow change will bring in a weak
cold front that will bring us back down to near normal readings in
the 60s Tuesday with cool mornings in the 30s persisting.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Sunday)...

A dry forecast with no weather hazards expected through the weekend.
A series of cold fronts will swing through the area but moisture
will be limited with each passage. Near normal temperatures are
expected.

Surface high pressure will be in control over Texas Wednesday and
then shift east Thursday. This shift east will allow for east and
south winds to develop before another front moves through Thursday
afternoon. Some fog may be possible Thursday morning prior to the
front across the Coastal Plains with the increased low-level
moisutre returning over the cooler ground.

The front on Thursday will shift through prior to the arrival of a
stronger trough passage by early Friday. This temporal misalignment
should preclude any precipitation across south-central Texas as PWATs
will already be < 0.3". Any rain that does develop will be near or
off the Texas coast per model consensus.

By late weekend, the GFS finally bring the aforementioned closed low
across Texas as a weak open wave. However, EC/CMC continue to agree
that the closed low remains farther west with lower to no QPF.
Continue to lean towards the drier EC/CMC solution vs. the
inconsistent GFS run-to-run solutions. Will continue to monitor if
the EC/CMC come around to the GFS solution to add any low-end rain
chances over the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  42  62  37  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  39  61  33  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  40  63  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            74  39  59  33  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           70  40  64  38  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  40  60  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             74  37  67  34  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  40  62  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  41  61  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  43  64  37  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           74  42  64  37  64 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...Allen



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