Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 270922

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
322 AM MDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast through Sat...

Broad upper trof over central CONUS expected to remain in place
through the end of the week. Various shortwaves moving through the
trof will provide lift for showers during the period with the
general focus of best moisture being over central Montana. Weak
high pressure reaching into western North Dakota from central
Canada will keep the eastern zones mostly dry.

Overall cool and mostly cloudy conditions with showers in the
western zones expected through Friday. A weak front swings across
the state Friday night driven by a shortwave pushing through
Saskatchewan. This will shift the shower activity to the south and
east for Saturday and most of Sunday. Ebert

.LONG TERM...Sat night through Thu...

Upper-level model weather pattern data suggest that the extended
forecast period shows a subtle shift to a more progressive and
warmer period of weather. The disturbances that ride down the
Canadian Rockies will bring off and on chances of rain showers to
the region, mainly Sunday night through Tuesday night.

The model consensus for precip timing and placement are rough at
best and are reflected in the forecast grids in a broad-brushed
kind of way, showing a generally less than average forecast
confidence. The scattered nature of these spring-time showers will
likely result in sporadic precipitation realized at any given
location across NE Montana. No significant storms on the horizon
for our area and gradually warming temperatures will make for a
comfortable start to the month of May.

As is usually the case, the best model consensus begins to form
around higher confidence toward the closer to current time.




Flight Conditions: VFR.

Synopsis: Upper trough extending into central Montana will keep
clouds and shower chances to our west early, then they will push
eastward and nearly clip KGGW on the west later today. The other
TAF sites should remain dry.

Winds: From the east-southeast 10-15 kts, strongest at KGGW.





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