Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 160907
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
307 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOW THE LARGE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH SUSTAINING ITSELF AND SPREADING EASTWARD OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE
AND OR SLIGHTLY ZONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES CLOSER OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA.

ABSOLUTELY ZERO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH MID-WEEK ACROSS OUR CWA. WITH EXCELLENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPROACHES THE
AREA WITH THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST BY LATE
THURSDAY. THE ACCOMPANYING COOL FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA SOMETIME LATE ON THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH A GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
PRESENT TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...MODEL QPF AND PRECIP
OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST. FOR NOW...CHOSE TO
REPRESENT THIS WITH ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW IN THE
GRIDS...AND EVEN THAT MIGHT BE TOO GENEROUS IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR DELAYING AND DRYING TRENDS. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OVER
THE WEEKEND AND MOVES INLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVING MONTANA
WARM AND DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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