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000
FXUS65 KGGW 170859
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
259 AM MDT MON MAR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE ENERGETIC TROUGH THAT DROPPED OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LAST NIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
DIVIDE THIS MORNING. THIS ACTION WILL SEND A COLD FRONT OVER THE
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL EJECT MOISTURE OVER THIS FRONTAL AREA TO
CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS MORNING. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PREDICT
QPF AMOUNTS UP TO 0.25 INCH OVER SOME AREAS BEFORE NOON...BUT
AROUND 0.10 INCH FOR MOST AREAS. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. BY AFTERNOON THE CLOSED LOW DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO SET UP STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH THE
INVERTED TROUGH NUDGED UP AGAINST THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
RECEIVE GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS. AS THE COLD FRONT
DROPS FARTHER SOUTH THE AIR ALOFT WILL BECOME COLDER. THEREFORE
THE RAIN WITH THE WIND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HAZARDOUS TO NEW
BORN CALVES. THE PLUS SIDE TO THIS IS THAT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA.

WITH THE RECENT WARM TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN ADDING TO
THE DRAINAGE...A FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE MILK RIVER HAS
BEEN ISSUED. SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP
FARTHER SOUTH. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO MOSTLY SNOW
BY EVENING AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO SUBSIDE. QPF AMOUNTS
DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY. SO ANY SNOW THAT DOES FORM TONIGHT WILL
NOT ACCUMULATE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH. THE CAA WILL DROP OVERNIGHT
LOWS INTO THE 20S. SO WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES AND LINGERING
MOISTURE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL KEEP POPS IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 40S
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN.

WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE DIVIDE TO BRING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SCT


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS MONTANA ON
THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT.
AIR-MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AHEAD OF THE LOW SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LOOKS DRY FOR MOST AREAS.

COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TURN THE PRECIP
TO ALL SNOW BY THURSDAY EVENING. COLD AIR MASS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK WAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER WAVE NEXT MONDAY COULD BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA
THIS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR BECOMING MVFR AFT 15Z-19Z FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. EITHER MVFR OR LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT.

IMPACTS: EXPECT VISIBILITY TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING THE RAIN WILL MIX OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL
FALL FROM VFR TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 18Z AS THE
LOW MOVES TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
EVENING. EXPECT DE- ICING TO CAUSE SOME DELAYS WITH LOW LEVEL
ICING ISSUES VERY LIKELY AFTER 14Z ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH AN ICE JAM FORMING BETWEEN GLASGOW AND NASHUA ON THE MILK
RIVER AND THE RIVER APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
ISSUE FOR THE MILK RIVER FROM TAMPICO TO NASHUA WHICH INCLUDES THE
GLASGOW AREA.

THE MILK RIVER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RISE DOWNSTREAM FROM TAMPICO.
AT 2 AM...THE NASHUA GAGE WAS AT 15.8 FEET AND FLOOD STAGE THERE
IS 20.0 FEET. THE GLASGOW GAGE WAS AT 22.5 FEET AND FLOOD STAGE
THERE IS 25.0 FEET. THE TAMPICO GAGE CRESTED AT 18.46 FEET ON
SUNDAY AND WAS AT 17.9 FEET AS OF 2 AM MONDAY. FLOOD STAGE THERE
IS 23.0 FEET. A ICE JAM HAS FORMED BETWEEN GLASGOW AND NASHUA ON
THE MILK RIVER. THERE IS ALSO FLOATING ICE OVER MOST OF GLASGOW
FORECAST AREA WHICH IS FROM DODSON DOWNSTREAM TO WHERE IT EMPTIES
INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER NEAR NASHUA.

FRENCHMAN CREEK AT THE CANADIAN BORDER NORTHEAST OF WHITEWATER
APPEARS TO HAVE CRESTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND FALLING SLOWLY
WITH THE GAGE AT 9.9 FEET AT 2 AM MONDAY. FLOOD STAGE THERE IS
12.0 FEET.

HIGH WATER CONTINUES TO FLOW ALL ALONG THE POPLAR RIVER SYSTEM.
WHILE RIVER LEVELS FELL ON SUNDAY... IT MAY RISE AGAIN AFTER
TODAY`S RAIN OR SNOW.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW