Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 252104
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
204 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A STRONG AND LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS IS HELPING TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY...IT IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASING 500MB HEIGHTS AND WARMING 850MB
TEMPERATURES. THIS AFTERNOON HAS BROUGHT WITH IT HIGHS IN THE 50S
FOR SEVERAL PLACES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND
EVEN A FEW 60 DEGREE READINGS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN IN THE 40S
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WHERE 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN A
LITTLE COOLER IN SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEYS WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WITHIN A SHALLOW INVERSION PERSISTED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING.
AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD STILL ENSURE THESE VALLEY LOCATIONS REACH
AT LEAST THE UPPER 40S LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH
WILL HELP TO PROMOTE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM ABOUT +7C NEAR PLENTYWOOD TO +16C NEAR WINNETT LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...50S IN THE CENTRAL CWA...AND 40S IN THE FAR NORTH. IN
SOME INSTANCES THIS WILL BE NEAR RECORD WARMTH FOR LATE JANUARY.
ALSO...ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER ON TUESDAY...THIS IS THE DAY THAT WILL FEATURE MOST
SUNSHINE AND BEST BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND SO EXPECT SIMILAR
HIGHS ON TUESDAY COMPARED WITH MONDAY. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THREE MAIN FEATURES TO LOOK AT IN THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST IS A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS A
SLIGHT BIT OF PRECIPITATION OVER OUR EXTREME NE CORNER-SHERIDAN
COUNTY. THE ECMWF IS DRY. LEFT THE FORECAST WITH SLT CHC POPS. THE SECOND
IS COLDER AIR COMING IN OUT OF CANADA BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN CLOSER
TO CLIMATOLOGY. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING QUITE A BIT COLDER
THAN WHAT OUR FORECAST HAD SO DROPPED THINGS A BIT ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE THIRD IS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COMING THROUGH
ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THAT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BRING IN SOME
PRECIPITATION BUT THE ONLY ONE HITTING THINGS WITH MENTIONABLE
PRECIPITATION IS A FEW HUNDREDTHS ON THE DGEX. HAVE BROUGHT POPS
UP TO SAY A SLIGHT CHANCE. FRANSEN

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED BACK TO THE WEST BY SOUTHWARD
STRENGTHENING HUDSON BAY LOW. THIS WILL START A TREND OF
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND PRAIRIES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH MONTANA FOR A SLIGHT DROP
IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE VERY WARM READINGS OF TUESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS CANADA.

BRIEF REBOUND OF THE RIDGE OCCURS ON THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. THIS WAVE
PHASES WITH A STRONGER WAVE ROUNDING THE HUDSON BAY LOW AND
PULLING ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. HOWEVER MODELS
ARE TRENDING TO THE EAST WITH BOTH THESE FEATURES...RESULTING IN
A POTENTIALLY WARMER AND DRIER WEEKEND THEN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE TRENDED DOWN WITH POPS AND UP WITH
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH MID CLOUDS IN THE REGION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT AND EVENING HOURS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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