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000
FXUS65 KGGW 101027
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
327 AM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

WITH A WELL-ESTABLISHED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA...THE ONLY DISTURBANCES ABLE TO CREATE ANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER OR PRECIPITATION ARE SUBTLE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
FLOW...RESULTING IN HALF AN INCH OF SNOW HERE AND HALF AN INCH OF
SNOW THERE. THIS WILL BE THE CASE TODAY AS REPEATED MODEL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE EXPECTED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TODAY
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY
THE END OF THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE A BIT ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...SAY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT...MAYBE 1 INCH IN 12 HOURS.
GIVEN THE BARELY MARGINAL NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS AND THE FACT
THAT MORE IMPACTFUL EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN EXPERIENCED ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EARLY WINTER SEASON...FELT IT WAS BEST TO BACK OFF
ON ANY WINTER HEADLINES TODAY. ALSO CANCELLED THE PREVIOUSLY
ISSUED WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS WINDS
HAVE COME IN A BIT WEAKER AND TEMPS HAVE COME IN JUST A BIT WARMER
THAN EXPECTED.

AFTER THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A NEUTRAL AND DIRECT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES
OVER...WITH EVER SO SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE RIDGING COMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BRING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES...A WELCOME CHANGE TO THE RECENT COLD SNAP.
INDEED...AFTER THIS AFTERNOON...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAKLY
NEGATIVE OR NEUTRAL AT BEST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT STEERING
PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NORTHWEST OR WNW WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. FREQUENT WEAK WAVES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING SOMEWHAT COLDER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.

THEN THE FRONT MOVES EAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA WHERE WINNETT COULD BE 25
DEGREES WARMER THAN PLENTYWOOD AND SCOBEY.

THE MODELS CURRENTLY MOVE THE FRONT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY BUT THE
LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. BY MONDAY...THAT FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE
ALLOWING FOR LESS OF A TEMPERATURE CONTRAST. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS
LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM SASKATCHEWAN MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SOMEWHAT COLDER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH POSSIBLE INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
AS BANDS OF SNOW MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL CAUSE CEILINGS TO
DECREASE. VISIBILITY WILL ALSO LOWER IN THE LIGHT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY 18Z AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AEC

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW