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000
FXUS65 KGGW 271613
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
913 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS SPOT ON. ONLY TWEAK FOR THE UPDATE WAS
TO END THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SET UP...THE COLDEST PORTIONS OF
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS RUN FROM GREENLAND THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY AND
TERMINATES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE AIRMASS MODIFIED
WARMER AND SPREADS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND US HIGH PLAINS.
TO THE WEST A WEAK LONGWAVE RIDGE EXISTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...THE NORTH AMERICAN COAST LINE AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES IN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN FLOW ON THE COLDER
SIDE THESE TWO CLASHING AIR-MASSES.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP FREEZE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING WAVE OF COLD AIR
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES STAND
AROUND 18 TO 8 BELOW CELSIUS WHICH SHOULD ROUGHLY TRANSLATE INTO
DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW FREEZING. WITH NO MOISTURE FEED...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NON-EXISTENT AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD BE
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WIND CHILL ALONG THE NORTHERN MOST
ZONES NEXT TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN
TONIGHT

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... A WEAK RIDGE WILL RUN DOWN THE
FRONT RANGE AND PROVIDE WEAK CHINOOK WARMING SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. WITH COLD SURFACE INFLUENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH STILL HANGING IN DAY TIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. GAH

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WARMER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW. CHANCE OF SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING
THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NW WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (ECMWF) OR NEARLY
ZONAL WNW (GFS) WITH NO WAVES. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT THIS
POINT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL TURN NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW