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000
FXUS65 KGGW 252056
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
256 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Tue...

Weak ridging and high pressure at the surface will make for mostly
clear skies, and generally light winds tonight.

Monday the surface high will shift to the south and east into
North Dakota, increasing the surface pressure gradient. This will
increase a dry and warm southeasterly surface flow over northeast
Montana. With temps rising into the upper 80s to near 90, Fire
weather concerns will be present, please see discussion below. A
lake wind advisory has also been issued for Fort Peck Lake.
Gilchrist



.LONG TERM...Tue night through Sun...
Update: A low pressure trough and cold front are forecast to move
across the area early Tuesday morning and exit into the Dakotas
Tuesday afternoon. The forecast was adjusted to increase SE winds
ahead of the front and NW winds behind the front. Current model
forecast are under doing the winds and gridded forecast were
adjusted for this. There will be strong enough winds and RH`s
approaching critical fire weather concerns. A lake wind advisory
will be out for the Tuesday time period as well due to the strong
NW winds.

Another upper level trough brings increasing flow and increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.

Continued unsettled weather continues from Friday and into the
weekend as more in a series of weather disturbances move across
the region.
Previous Discussion: Upper ridge over the region early in the
week breaks down by mid week as an upper low pushes across the
Canadian Rockies. The upper low then lingers over central Canada
for the remainder of the week. This will result in generally
cooler weather (near or below normal temperatures) with a few
showers possible. Ebert


&&

.AVIATION...
Flight category: VFR.

Synopsis: High pressure will rule over the next 24 hours making
for excellent flying weather with occasional mid level clouds.

Winds: North to northwest at 5-15kts, going light tonight. Expect
gusty southeast winds to pick by mid Monday morning at 10-20kts.

Gilchrist

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Continued the Fire Weather Watch based on relatively unchanged
forecasted conditions described below. SPC did designate central
and eastern Montana in their day 2 fire weather outlook as
elevated.
Templer

Previous discussion -
Monday looks to be a very warm day with pre-frontal environment
leading to high temperatures into the 80s and low 90s across
northeast Montana. Given the drought conditions and dry overall
environment, efficient boundary layer mixing will lead to minimum
relative humidity readings around 15 percent. Combined with gusty
south winds, near critical fire weather conditions may occur.
Highest confidence is across fire weather zones 134, 135, and 136
where a fire weather watch is in effect from Noon until 8 PM on
Monday. Maliawco


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for MTZ134>136.

Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for
Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern Valley...
Garfield...McCone...Petroleum.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow