Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 061807
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1207 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

EXPANDED PATCHY FOG A BIT FARTHER EAST INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AS
ODX HAS DIPPED TO 1/2SM VISIBILITY. MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
LXN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TEMPERATURES TODAY.

PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY FOR A FEW DAYS AS WE WILL SEE A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW. AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WE EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE
THICK SNOWFIELD ON THE GROUND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL. BASED ON NUMERICAL MODEL PERFORMANCE
FROM YESTERDAY...I DID OPT TO GO A BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXPECTED SUNSHINE TODAY...AS
OPPOSED TO THE DEARTH OF SUNSHINE YESTERDAY. HIGHS NEAR 40 TO MID
40S IS EXPECTED. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND WIND
WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT REALLY PICK
UP UNTIL SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING...SHOWING THE AREA COMING UNDER INCREASING
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED OVER NRN MN AT 12Z SUN. ACCOMPANYING ENERGY IS SHOWN BY
MODELS TO SWING SE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...AS
THE LOW MOVES INTO WI BY 00Z MON. SUN NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING AS RIDGING EXTENDS NORTH OVER THE WEST
COAST. AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES...THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT AND RESULTING
BEST CHANCES CONTINUE TO REMAIN OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...CANT RULE
OUT SOME FLURRIES CLIPPING THE ERN THIRD OR SO OF THE CWA...SO KEPT
THAT MENTION GOING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. OF BIGGER
CONCERN FROM THIS SYSTEM IS THE WINDS BEING USHERED IN BY A PASSING
COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE INITIAL
REINFORCING SHOT OF NWRLY WINDS COMING THROUGH PRIOR TO 12Z
SUNDAY...WITH THE BETTER PUSH OF COLDER AIR COMING THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE THINKING THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
UP...AIDED BY COLDER AID ADVECTION. THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC BEING PRESENT
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME SHOWING 850MB SPEEDS OVER 50 MPH. WILL
KEEP MENTION OF 25 TO 35 MPH SPEEDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH IN THE
HWO FOR SUNDAY. THOSE NWRLY WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BREEZY RIGHT ON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...WITH COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...FORECAST HIGHS FOR MOST REMAIN IN THE 30S. WHILE MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN SUNDAY...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE CWA.

THE MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND N/NWRLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WORK
WEEK...BECOMING SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. AT THIS
POINT...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DRIVEN BY WEAK DISTURBANCES OR UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK FORCING
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE N/NE OF THE CWA. NOT LOOKING TO
BE ANY BIG SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES TUE-FRI...WITH THE CWA REMAINING
GENERALLY IN BETWEEN THE COLDER AIR SET UP TO THE EAST AND WARMER
AIR TO THE WEST. MID/UPPER 30S TO MID/UPPER 40S GENERALLY GOING FOR
HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY AND
PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY
VARIABLE COVERAGE OF PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS.

THAT LEAVES WINDS AS THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD WHEN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) BECOMES
AN ISSUE. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS:

SURFACE WIND: AVERAGING AROUND 12KT FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT BUT BECOMING MORE WEST-
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. A STEADY INCREASE IN WEST-
NORTHWEST SPEEDS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GUST POTENTIAL
RAMPING UP INTO THE 25-30KT RANGE 15Z-18Z TIME FRAME.

LLWS ISSUES: HAVE MAINTAINED LLWS FROM PREVIOUS
ISSUANCE...FOCUSING ON THE 05Z/06Z THROUGH 15Z TIME FRAME...WHEN A
PUSH OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 40KT
MOVES IN ABOVE THE SURFACE...CREATING ROUGHLY 30-35KT OF TOTAL
SHEAR MAGNITUDE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 1500 FT AGL. THESE
WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT
BY LATE MORNING THE SURFACE SPEEDS SHOULD START INCREASING ENOUGH
TO EASE THE SHEAR MAGNITUDE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH


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