Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGID 211053
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
553 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SOME MINOR SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX/SKY. THE MID-LVL
CLOUDS OVER N-CNTRL KS HAS KEPT TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH BELOW
80F. SATELLITE TRENDS TRENDS SUGGEST CLEARING AND FROM THIS
ELEVATED TEMP PLATFORM...TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING AT
LEAST 100F. SO HIGHS WERE INCREASED AND I STILL MAY BE
CONSERVATIVE. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMP CURVES TO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE
RAPID RISE. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE HOURLIES BECAUSE I
MAY STILL BE TOO SLOW TO HEAT THINGS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ALOFT: A SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A TROF WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE WRN USA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROFS ROUNDING
THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH BUT REMAIN DISPLACED N AND W OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS. SW FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED.

SURFACE: WITH ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES ALOFT...THE PRES PATTERN WILL
CHANGE LITTLE. HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE GULF COAST...WITH A
TROF FROM THE SANDHILLS SW INTO COLORADO.

WE LOST SOME TIME FOR THE AFD TO RADAR INTERROGATION ON THIS
SHIFT. WE MAY TRY TO UPDATE THIS SECTION WITH ADDITIONAL INFO ON
POTENTIAL TSTM CHARACTER THRU TONIGHT IF TIMES PERMITS.

THRU DAWN: LLJ-INDUCED SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION ALTHOUGH
A COUPLE COULD LINGER PAST SUNRISE E OF HWY 281. SUB-SEVERE WIND/
HAIL OCCURRED WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WE
BELIEVE SEVERE HAIL /1"/ MAY HAVE OCCURRED NEAR GIBBON AND ALSO
ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE HALL-ADAMS COUNTY BORDER.

TODAY: DECREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING. ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. YESTERDAYS OBSERVED HIGH TEMPS WERE
USED AS A STARTING POINT FOR TODAYS FCST AND THEN NUDGED HOTTER BY
2-3F. WITH THIS KIND OF HEAT AND DEEP MIXING...DWPTS WERE LOWERED
OVER FURNAS/HARLAN COUNTIES DOWN INTO N-CNTRL KS 18Z-00Z.

TOUGH TO PINPOINT TSTM POTENTIAL SO MODELS WERE LARGELY FOLLOWED.
AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP WELL S AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES. HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST IT. FCST SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM OVERALL...BUT LOW ON TSTM POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT: PROBABLY M/CLEAR N AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES AND P/CLOUDY S
AND E. THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN BUT BE ORIENTED TOWARD THE
MIDWEST. TSTM POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT I LIKE THE LOOK
OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS WHICH SUGGEST LITTLE OR NOTHING.
THAT BEING SAID...THE FCST DOES HAVE 15-20% CHANCE OF A TSTM FROM
THE TRI-CITIES S AND E.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM OVERALL...BUT LOW ON TSTM POTENTIAL.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE ACTIVE
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY.

STARTING ON FRIDAY THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE AMPLIFIED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD
THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM THE PACIFIC NW SOUTH TO AZ. THIS PATTERN
PLACES THE INTERIOR CONUS IN SW FLOW ALOFT AND ALLOWS A FETCH OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION.

CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING TO START THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LINGERING
FROM OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY OR EVEN NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT OR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ORIENT FROM SE COLORADO NORTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAVERING N/S DURING
THE DAY...SHIFTING SOUTH WITH CONVECTION INITIALLY BUT THEN
LIFTING NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE FRONT THE CAP
STRENGTHENS WITH H7 TEMPS AVERAGING 12-13C. IN THE HIGH MOISTURE
REGIME WITH DPS WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S...INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTN IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 4000 J/KG WITH SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 30 TO 40KTS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THESE CONDITIONS WITH STORM INITIATION DUE TO CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NEB KS. CAP
SHOULD HOLD ACROSS NC KANSAS. STORMS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
NOCTURNAL HOURS AS THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 40KTS...WITH
THE BEST CHCS FOR STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS NEB ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLVL JET AND IN DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

SATURDAY IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN AS CONVECTION MAY LINGER FOR
A TIME IN THE MORNING OR POTENTIALLY REDEVELOP PRIMARILY ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND NORTH OF THE STRONGER
CAP TO THE SOUTH. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS MT
PUSHES EAST ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY PRIMARILY AFTER DARK. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FROM EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SW KANSAS
ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN BEING THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL SEE SOME REPRIEVE
FROM THE HEAT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH AND AS THE
UPPER LOW TRANSLATES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

HEADING INTO THE WORKWEEK...THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH THE HEAT TURNING BACK ON...ESPECIALLY
FOR NC KANSAS. WITH THE BOUNDARY MEANDERING...CHANCES FOR STORMS
CONTINUE AND AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ARRIVE
TOWARDS THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME...DECENT CHCS FOR RAIN/STORMS
CONTINUE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGE AN INCH AND A HALF
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS AND ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

TODAY: VFR MID-LEVEL CEILINGS 9-12K FT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
HEAD E. TOUGH CALL ON WINDS DUE TO DISRUPTION FROM OVERNIGHT
TSTMS WHICH IS MASKING LARGE-SCALE WIND FIELD. BY 15Z BELIEVE
REMNANT EFFECTS OF TSTMS SHOULD BE GONE WITH S-SSW WINDS TAKING
OVER. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: VFR. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT
GENERALLY LOOKS LOW. SO NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE UNDER 10 KTS. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN WIND DIRECTION DUE TO THE FCST LOCATION OF AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.