Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 261052 CCA
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
552 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX TODAY...AND ALSO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON AND  EVENING.

SOME PATCHY FOG EXISTS THIS MORNING AS THE AIR IS QUITE SOUPY WITH
LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. ALSO THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BOTH SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...GIVING US ONE MORE DAY OF HOT WEATHER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO GIVE US A HEALTHY CAP. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL HANG OUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA TODAY...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL
EXACTLY WHERE IT IS AS IT WAS DISRUPTED FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
REMNANTS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM AND MOIST DAY...ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER
HEAT ADVISORY. A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS
WAY SOUTH AND COULD HELP SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN
CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. A HEALTHY CAP IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
STALLED FRONT BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE
SHOULD BE A PUSH OF DRIER AIR TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...HELPING
TO SHUT OFF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE NORTH...AND ULTIMATELY
INTRODUCE THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPECTING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WE WILL HAVE
ADEQUATE SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NORTH...BUT THE CAP WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO BUST COMPLETELY THROUGH. I WILL INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. IF BY CHANCE A STORM BREAKS COMPLETELY
THROUGH THE CAP...THEN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WOULD NOT BE ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM REMAINS WITH PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

EXPECTING TO SEE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND SRN PLAINS...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS SLIDING SE FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
MAIN SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
SUNDAY MORNING INTO CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF KS. THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY...THE MAIN LOW CONTINUES PUSHING SE...AND
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY..AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA EXTENDS THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO WRN CANADA. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH NO ADDITIONAL NOTABLE DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED EVEN AS WE GET INTO MON/MON NIGHT...AND THE DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES.  SUN AND MON BOTH LOOK TO BE PLEASANT DAYS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES THE
PRIMARY PLAYER IN THE SFC PATTERN. THE FIRST HALF OR SO OF THE DAY
ON SUN MAY BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE...BUT WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHTER WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.  BY
SUN EVENING THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH IS STILL WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...BUT BY MON EVENING HAS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN...AND
AFTER NUMEROUS DAYS WELL INTO THE 90S/100S...HIGHS ON SUN ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOWER/MID 80S FOR
MON.

LOOKING AT THE MID/LATE WORK WEEK PERIOD...MORE UNCERTAINTY ARISES
IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BY THE TIME
TUES MORNING ROLLS AROUND...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS.  THE
ERN HALF IS DOMINATED BY TROUGHING RESULTING FROM A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE HUDSON BAY AREA...WITH RIDGING COVERING THE
WRN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE CWA SITS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...MODELS SHOWING
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO WORK THEIR WAY SE
THROUGH THE MAIN FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF ANY OF THESE CHANCES IS LOW DUE TO DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS...SO ITS HARD TO COMPLETELY DISCOUNT A PARTICULAR
PERIOD AT THIS POINT. KEPT POPS LOW...DONT WANT TO GIVE THE
IMPRESSION OF A MULTI-DAY PRECIP EVENTS. LIKELY WILL SEE POPS
REMOVED FROM AT LEAST A FEW OF THE PERIODS AS IT GETS CLOSER AND
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.  GENERALLY NEAR/BELOW AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK DUE
TO THE CWA SITTING BETWEEN THE WRN WARM/ERN COOL AIR MASSES.  LOWER
80S FORECAST ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH MID 80S FURTHER
S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AS DEW POINT DEPRESSION REMAINS LOW...THERE WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND STRATUS IN THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH HOW LONG THE RESTRICTIONS WILL LINGER AND HOW SEVERE
THEY WILL WIND UP BEING...AS THIS IS WIDELY VARIABLE ACROSS SHORT
DISTANCES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEYOND THIS MORNING. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS EVENING...BUT
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EITHER WELL SOUTH OR WELL NORTH OF
THE TERMINALS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ083>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



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