Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 012309
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
609 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES HAVE LINGERED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER JET OF 100KTS MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA.  THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE MORNING HAS BEGUN TO DECREASE AND DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN.

UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING SOUTHEAST FM EASTERN WY/SD IN
THE W/NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT.  THIS WAVE HAS
ALREADY INITIATED CONVECTION IN WY/SD AND THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH OUR NORTHERN CWA ON THE EDGE OF THE
ACTIVITY.  HAVE MAINTAINED POPS THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT AND GIVEN
MODEL PROGS OF INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1000 J/KG IN OUR NORTHEAST CWA
AND GOOD SHEAR OF 40KTS...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT THAT A
STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THEY CAN MAKE IT THIS FAR
SOUTH.

ASIDE FROM OUTSIDE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...WE ARE LOOKING FOR
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE DRIER...COOLER AIRMASS
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE 50S.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY WITH
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE.  THE AIRMASS
MODERATES AS WARMER AIR LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND TEMPS WILL TREND BACK
TO THE LOW/MID 80S FOR HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TO START
THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE CANADIAN BOARDER THURSDAY
WHILE STEERING A NOTABLE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT WARM AIR TO SURGE NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...MAKING FOR A WARM START TO THE EXTENDED
PERIODS ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.

WITH 850 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE MIDDLE 20S BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT AN UNSEASONABLY
WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. WHILE DEW POINTS
WILL ALSO BE NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE STILL CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
ONLY PEAK OUT JUST BELOW 100 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH COMPARED TO THE
NICE WEATHER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THIS WILL LIKELY FEEL QUITE
WARM AND HUMID.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO CROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RELIEF TO
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH AN IMPRESSIVE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OF NEAR 15C AT 850...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT TRICKY ON THURSDAY...WITH LIKELY A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY FALLING
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEHIND THIS FRONT AS IT TRACKS
SOUTHEASTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN BEHIND THIS FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

WHILE MODEL QPF FIELDS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION BEHIND THIS FRONT...EXPECT AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES IN DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THAT
SAID...EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG CAP TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...SO WITH LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM...WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS POINT.

OTHERWISE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD SETTLE BACK IN ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HELPS
BREAK DOWN THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE BRINGING A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING SUSTAINED AT AROUND 08KTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. CLOUD COVER NEAR 15000FT AGL
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
FOR THE MOST PART DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...BRYANT


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