Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 302109

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
409 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

The primary concern will be nearly stationary thunderstorms that
could quickly dump heavy rain on scattered locations resulting in
possible flash flooding. There is little if any shear with the sfc
and upper level flow being very weak. Precipitable water values
range from 1.5 to 2 inches. Consequently, we expect pop-up
thunderstorms that will quickly develop, dump potentially
significant rainfall while hardly moving at all and then they will
die out. There will likely be significant rainfall total
variations across the forecast area with some seeing very little
if any precipitation while nearby locations get a quick 1-3 inches
of rain. The predictability on where these instability/heat of
day thunderstorms will develop is very low. Overall it does seem
that the southern portions of our forecast area are slightly more
favored and thus the flash flood watch will continue into this
evening across these zones although isolated areas of heavy rain
are certainly possible about anywhere in our forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Sfc high pressure will track across the northern plains Wednesday
and Thursday with drier air working into our region from the
northeast. This should push the unstable airmass to the south
confining the chance of thunderstorms to southern zones on
Wednesday, and then south of even our Kansas counties for
Thursday and Friday. The sfc high will eventually pass far enough
to our east by Friday night to allow for return moist southerly
flow and possible thunderstorms. We should see increasing
thunderstorm chances as we head into Saturday and Saturday night
with thunderstorm chances holding right into early next week.
There will be a deepening upper trough across the western CONUS
that will result in moist southwesterly flow aloft with embedded
shortwaves moving through by this weekend into early next week.
There could be some severe weather threat with some of these
storms given increasing deep layer wind shear, but it is too early
to lay out specifics.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Significant Wx: IFR vsby`s in sct TSRAs. IFR fog/stratus potential

This Afternoon: Multi-layered VFR clouds mostly at or above 7K ft.
Some few-sct CU will develop 2000-3000 ft. Sct +SHRA/+TSRA but
confidence is not high enough on a direct hit to include that in
the TAFs yet. Lgt mainly E winds. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: Multi-layered VFR clouds with sct +SHRA/+TSRA. IFR
stratus CIGs with MVFR or possibly IFR vsby`s in fog. Lgt and vrbl
winds. Confidence: Medium

Wed thru 18Z: MVFR or IFR conditions in stratus/fog. Improvement
to VFR after 15Z. Lgt and vrbl winds. Confidence: Medium


.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for NEZ074>077-

KS...Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for KSZ005>007-



LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Kelley is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.