Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
331 FXUS62 KGSP 132332 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 732 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A typically active mid-summer week is ahead as daily thunderstorm chances continue. A few storms could produce damaging wind gusts, particularly Monday. Daily high temperatures will be several degrees above normal at the beginning of the week but trend back to around normal Tuesday through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 730 PM EDT Sunday: Isolated convection still hanging around this evening will continue to diminish with sunset. After that, yet another muggy night with temps above normal, clearing sky, and a chance of mtn valley fog in the pre-dawn hours. For Monday, the upper ridge over the Southeast should flatten and expand as the weak upper wave to our NW lifts out and deamplifies quickly as it passes well to our north through the afternoon. This suggests a continuance of what essentially amounts to a slightly higher than climo precip prob across most of the area. The mtns are the exception, where precip probs will go into the likely range, mostly because of the HRRR suggestion of some better coverage and organization along a possible outflow boundary, from previous convection, that reaches the mtns during afternoon heating. Profiles look tall and skinny and mid-level dry air is not as pronounced on fcst soundings, so perhaps our severe threat will trend back down. As for temps...it looks like another hot one...but with dewpoints mixing out enough again to keep the apparent temp below Advisory criteria in the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1155 AM Sunday: The upper ridge axis is progged remain atop the cwfa through the period while continued southerly flow around Bermuda high pressure advects higher PWAT values into the region, which seem to be tropical in nature originating closer to the wwd moving inverted trough. Despite the upper ridge positioning, given broad southerly llvl convergence and richer moisture, diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms are expected to become numerous each day with locally excessive rainfall on ongoing threat. We will be stepping away Monday`s Piedmont maximum middle 90s progging values closer to climo Tuesday and Wednesday, but sfc dwpts will wind up being higher with less chances of downward mixing. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1230 PM Sunday: The cwfa still looks to be within the periphery of the circulation around Bermuda high pressure to start off the period with the deterministic GFS/ECMWF both rebuilding the center of strong upper anticyclone back atop the region for Friday. So, daily maximums will creep back upward to above climo by Friday. Potentially widespread deep convection on Thursday may trend back to climo pop on Friday if ridge in fact does build as progged. The medium range models are hinting that upper ridge central will shift wwd over next weekend, but at this point, sensible wx will be typical for mid-July for Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Monitoring isolated TSRA at TAF time still, and have kept PROB30 for KCLT for a couple of hours to cover convective potential, but otherwise VFR this evening. Expect typical mountain valley fog/low stratus that may encroach on KAVL and have kept trends from previous TAF for MVFR restrictions, with TEMPO at KHKY as well. Another round of PROB30 TSRA at all sites Monday afternoon with only minor variations in timing. Winds will be lgt/vrb overnight but trending generally NW. Outlook: Typical summertime weather is expected into early next week, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon/evening and fog and/or low stratus possible each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CSH NEAR TERM...PM/TDP SHORT TERM...CSH LONG TERM...CSH AVIATION...TDP