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000
FXUS62 KGSP 301621
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1221 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER OR EARLY AUTUMN. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 1215 PM...CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RIGHT ON THE MONEY.
ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/DEWPOINT TREND.

AS OF 940 AM...CURRENT GRID SUITE VERIFYING VERY WELL THIS MORNING.
THIS UPDATE WILL MAKE ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST
CONSSHORT RUN.

AS OF 600 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
ALTHOUGH ALL TIME RECORD LOW AT KAVL HAS OFFICIALLY BEEN
TIED...LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT AND OBS INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS IN THE REGION.  THIS WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT ANY FURTHER COOLING THUS PROTECTING THE RECORD.  TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER VORTEX CENTERED OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO CONTINUES TO ROTATE WHILE ITS TROF REMAINS DRAPED TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  AS THE PRIMARY TROF AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD...EXPECTING A SLOW RISE IN UPPER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE
COMBINATION OF DEPARTING UPPER TROF...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND
DOMINATE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ONCE AGAIN YIELD A NICE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION.  FORECAST WILL FEATURE NO MENTIONABLE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED REGIONS
OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD.

ASIDE FROM THAT...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS CONDENSES LEADING TO SCATTERED FAIR WX CU.  NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8KTS RANGE WITH SOME
MINOR GUSTING POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY DUE TO
CHANNELING.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.  THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER...YET STILL BELOW NORMAL.  THESE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO
REEMERGENCE OF PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...THE DEEP BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS REMAINS
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE. THE AXIS OF
THE TROF SETS UP OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND SHARPENS THRU THE
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST TOWARD
THE EAST COAST. THIS DEVELOPS THEN STRENGTHENS THE SWLY FLOW OVER
THE CWFA THUR THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW
AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS TIME...WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING UPPER
DIVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL S TO SE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK H85 LOW SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES WIDESPREAD...THE FLOW IS NOT VERY STRONG.
AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN TAKES ON A WEDGE LIKE CONFIGURATION AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE AREA FROM THE NE WHILE A SFC FRONT MOVES
NORTH TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY THERE AS
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. ALL THIS LEADS TO
SLOWLY INCREASING CHC POP ACROSS THE CWFA. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL
SOME QUESTION ON WHERE THE BEST PRECIP COVERAGE DEVELOPS. BETTER
COVERAGE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SE CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONT...IT COULD
BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW...OR IT COULD
EVEN BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ACROSS THE NC MTNS WHERE BETTER
FORCING FROM THE H85 LOW MOVES. FOR NOW...CHC POP MTNS AND SLIGHT
CHC ELSEHWERE THU AS MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ONLY BE SLOWLY RAMPING
UP. POP BECOMES LIKELY ACROSS THE MTNS AND NRN TIER WITH SOLID CHC
POP ELSEHWERE THU NITE...FRI AND FRI NITE. INSTABILITY DOES SLOWLY
INCREASE THRU THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL CAP ERODES LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN ISOLATED TO SCT TSRA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION AS
WELL. FOR NOW...HAVE THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT NO HEAVY RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THU
FALL TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI. LOWS NEAR NORMAL THU
NITE FALL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW FRI NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM...SWLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS ONLY SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THIS KEEPS THE
MOIST SLY FLOW AND WEDGE LIKE RIDGE-FRONT PATTERN IN PLACE ON SAT
THEN SLOWLY BREAKS IT DOWN ON SUN. THIS MEANS SOLID CHC TO LIKELY
POP AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THUR SUN NITE.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST ON MON. THE GFS
SLOWLY MOVES THE LOW INTO THE AREA BY TUE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE
LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF COAST AND RETROGRADES IT ON TUE. EVEN
THOUGH THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS...BOTH MDLS SHOW SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
MON AND TUE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS HAS MUCH MORE QPF. FOR
NOW...HAVE DIURNAL SCT COVERAGE EACH DAY. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW WARMING
TREND BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING
LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WILL YIELD
FAIR WX CU COVERAGE.  KEPT MENTION OF LOW VFR CLOUDS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATE WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEGINS TO VEER
MORE EASTERLY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY AND IN THE
5-8KTS RANGE.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR
LEVEL FOG/STRATUS AT KAVL THURSDAY MORNING.  SCT/BKN FAIR WX VFR CU
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SKIES TODAY WITH SOME OF THIS SKY COVER LINGERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE SC SITES AND KHKY WHERE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT IN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY VEERING
FLOW AT THE SC SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK AS EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RESUMES.  THIS WILL YIELD UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH MORNING
FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z        10-16Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 30...

AVL...54 IN 1897
CLT...58 IN 1914
GSP...60 IN 1914

RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY JULY 31...

AVL...53 IN 1986
CLT...56 IN 1914
GSP...56 IN 1936

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...