Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 051423 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1023 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
SOUTH TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK AND PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEEK OR
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1022 AM UPDATE: OTHER THAN MATCHING CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO GOING FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

616 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE 10Z MESONET IN FIRST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE CT VALLEY. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED.

WARM RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON SUNDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH MID
WEEK...BEFORE A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT
NEARBY ON THURSDAY...SO ANY RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY SHOULD BE
BRIEF AND LIMITED TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. UPSTREAM ENERGY WILL THEN CARVE OUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY...WITH BACKING FLOW AND A
SURFACE LOW TRACKING TO OUR WEST...PUSHING THE STALLED FRONT BACK
TO OUR NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNING FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
IN RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...

MON AM...LCL IFR PSBL IN VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG.

TUE AM...LCL IFR PSBL IN VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG.

TUE PM - WED...SCT MVFR IN SHRA AND -TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT/EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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