Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 092017
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
317 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FLURRIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS IN THE
AREA. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COULD
PROVIDE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS THE POLAR VORTEX BEGINS TO DROP DOWN
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH A FEW MORE RIPPLES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE
CONFINED TO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE NORTHWESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS
WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL INTERACT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS NORTH. ACROSS THE SOUTH READINGS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND FREQUENT AS A WEST TO EAST SURFACE TROUGH
SHARPENS ACROSS THE REGION.

THROUGH THIS 36 HOUR TIME PERIOD WE ARE LOOKING AT MAYBE AN INCH
TO TWO INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IT WILL BE MORE LIKE 3 INCHES. THIS WILL BE MORE
NUISANCE SNOWFALL THAN ANYTHING ELSE. IT WILL STILL BE A DRY SNOW
BUT NOT AS DRY AS MONDAYS SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S NORTH TO
LOWER 30S SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A 35 DEGREE READING ALONG THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY BEGINS WITH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FIRMLY UNDER A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER. NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE IMMEDIATE
HORIZON... BUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

SATURDAY LOOKS A BIT INTERESTING THOUGH AS AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. ITS LOOKING LIKE WE SHOULD SEE SOME PRETTY
GUSTY WINDS AND COLD WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BELOW ZERO ALL THE WAY TO
THE COAST. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MINUS TEN TO MINUS TWENTY DEGREE RANGE.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT SETS UP FOR MONDAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY LIFTING AS CLOUDS ARE BREAKING
UP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HASN`T GONE ANYWHERE SO
EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DROP. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

LONG TERM...EXPECT ONLY NUISANCE SHOWERS AT TAF SITES IN THE LONG
TERM AS UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE DECREASED BUT LARGE WAVES IN LONG PERIOD
SWELL ARE STILL A THREAT. THEREFORE SMALL CRAFTS REMAIN OUT FOR
ALL MARINE ZONES. THE BAYS SHOULD DROP BELOW 5 FT LATE TONIGHT
WILL THE OUTER WATERS REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT
STATEMENT GOES THROUGH ONLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

LONG TERM...WILL LIKELY NEED EITHER A SMALL CRAFT OR GALE WARNING
ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING ARCTIC FRONT. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 35-40KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR SPLASH-OVER
ALONG THE MORE VULNERABLE BEACHES OF COASTAL YORK AND COASTAL
ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE IN
PORTLAND WILL OCCUR AT 11 PM. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR COASTAL YORK AND COASTAL ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...POHL


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