Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 221019
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
619 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6 AM UPDATE: SHWRS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF NH SO WILL
CONTINUE THE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. THE QPF FCST FOR
SRN NH CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD. WDLY SCT SHWRS ELSEWHERE SO POPS
LOOK OK. INPUT LATEST OBS DATA WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPS OTRW NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISC:
A SHARP UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE LOW LEVEL AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH.
THE UPPER TROF WILL CAUSE SCT MAINLY AFTN DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP BUT OVER SRN AREAS OF NH A MORE PREVALENT AREA OF SHWRS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING WITH SOME LOCALLY HVY AMTS. BY LATE
MORNING THE AXIS OVER SRN AREAS OF NH WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH ALLOWING
THE PCPN TO BECOME MORE SCT IN NATURE. STILL EXPECTING AVG
RAINFALL AMTS OF ARND 1 INCH OVR MUCH OF SRN NH WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS OF 2-3 INCHES PSBL. IN SOUTHERN MAINE AND NRN NH ONLY
VERY LIGHT AMTS OF QPF EXPECTED...GENERALLY ON AN AVERAGE ONLY
AROUND .10 OR LESS. WENT WITH VERY HIGH POPS INTO THE MORNING OVER
SRN NH AND GENERALLY A CHC POP ELSEWHERE. USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ALLOWING A LARGE CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRES TO BUILD SOUTH WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SUN SHOULD RETURN ON SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL
REMAIN COOL. ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR MIN/MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE A
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AND
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ON TUESDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS
BOUNDARY SAGS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNERSTORMS COMING TO AN END
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHWRS AND ANY
OCEAN STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. BY LATE MORNING MOSTLY VFR CONDS
BUT WDLY SCT AFTN/EVNG SHWRS/TSTMS WILL LWR CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR.
CONDS BECOME VFR TNGT AND CONTINUE INTO SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE


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