Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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556
FXUS64 KHGX 121141
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
541 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FALLING TO ZERO HAS FOG QUICKLY FORMING AND
GOING DENSE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST
TERMINALS FROM METRO SOUTHWARD WILL FALL AND REMAIN (V)LIFR
WITHIN FG THROUGH 14-15Z. A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE UNDER SKC FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE PASSIVE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
TONIGHT WILL HAVE EVENING BREEZES BECOMING VARIABLE...THEN STICKING
LIGHT NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY SUNRISE. THE THREAT FOR EARLY SATURDAY
FOG WILL BE CONFINED JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...TYPICALLY SHORT-
LIVED MVFR CAT BR BEFORE LOCAL BREEZES VEER MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
EARLY SATURDAY (OVERNIGHT) DRIER AND COLDER AIR UNDERCUTTING WARMER
AND MORE MOIST MID LEVEL AIR MAY CREATE A LATE PERIOD MVFR DECK.
31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS YESTERDAY BROUGHT NEAR RECORD WARMTH TO PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. IAH`S (HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL) HIGH OF 80 DEGREES
WAS JUST A COUPLE DEGREES OFF THE RECORD OF 82 SET IN 1999...AND HOU`S
(HOUSTON HOBBY) HIGH OF 78 DEGREES WAS A DEGREE OFF THE RECORD OF 79
LAST SET IN 2000. AFTER AREAS OF MORNING FOG (SOME POSSIBLY DENSE)...
EXPECT TO SEE WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY (TODAY`S RECORD TEMPS INCLUDE
84 AT IAH SET IN 1922 AND 82 AT HOU SET IN 1962). A WEAK FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL HELP TO
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD NEAR NORMAL EARLY TO MID FEBRUARY READINGS
OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFF TO THE
EAST ON SUNDAY TO ALLOW FOR VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA...
BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES COME SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A NORTH
TEXAS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. SEVERAL DRY DAYS WITH COOL NIGHTS AND WARM AFTERNOONS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM.  42

MARINE...
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE
DAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN U.S. AND
INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL CREATE EASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY...VEERING
MORE SOUTHERLY SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MORE MODERATE WEEKEND WIND SPEEDS...PERIODS OF CAUTION LEVEL
WINDS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RESPONDING WEEKEND SEAS WILL LIFT FROM
TONIGHT`S NEAR 2 FOOT HEIGHTS TO AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSAGE MONDAY WILL INCREASE
(PRIMARILY EASTERN WATER) SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. 31

CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE BACK IN 1899...GALVESTON RECORDED ITS ALL-TIME RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 8 DEGREES. THE ISLAND SAW SOME RELIEF THE NEXT
DAY WHEN THE LOW ONLY GOT DOWN TO 10 DEGREES.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  48  65  49  71 /   0   0  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  50  66  48  69 /   0   0  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  55  62  54  66 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
     BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...WALLER...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31



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