Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 021755
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1255 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016


.AVIATION...
LT RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE AREA. LOW CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/VFR CIGS BY LATE AFTN. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT BUT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION
SATELLITE IMAGERY SEEMS TO SUPPORT FCST SOUNDINGS SO WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE DRIER/OPTIMISTIC SOLUTIONS. WINDS HAVE BEEN STRONGER
THAN GUIDANCE AND WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE WINDS AT MOST TAF SITES
TONIGHT. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW OFF THE COAST AND NORTH WINDS SHOWING UP AT
ALL SOUTHEAST TEXAS OBSERVATION SITES...LOOK FOR DECREASING SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES TODAY... AND DECREASING
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE SUNNY WITH COOL NIGHTS AND WARM DAYS.

ONLY MADE SOME VERY MINOR GRID ADJUSTMENTS ON THE MORNING UPDATE. 42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
LOOKING FOR CONTINUED AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HASN`T MOVED ALL THAT MUCH OVERNIGHT...STILL
ROUGHLY SITUATED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR. THINK HAIL AND
ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE NORTH OF I-10
WHERE BETTER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE SITUATED THRU LATE
MORNING. ANOTHER BOUNDARY SOUTH OF I-10 FIRED UP EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT AND IS DOING SO AGAIN. MORE EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED HERE. COVERAGE SHOULD ALSO BE HIGHER AND AREA WILL BE
CLOSELY WATCHED AS IT SERVES AS A TRAINING/FOCUSING MECHANISM.
TIDE LEVELS SHOT UP OVERNIGHT SO DRAINAGE WON`T BE AS GOOD AS
USUAL AT SOME LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE BRINGS THE FRONT THRU LATER RE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
BRINGING DRIER AIR TO THE COAST. MAY STILL SEE SOME ISO/SCT
ELEVATED PRECIP IN ITS WAKE...BUT EXPECT A DRYING TREND TO FINALLYBEGIN.

AFTER TODAY WE SHOULD SEE ABOUT A WEEK OF NEEDED DRY PLEASANT WX
WITH UPPER RIDGING GAINING CONTROL. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
CLIMO WITH LOWS IN THE 60S & HIGHS IN THE 80S. ONSHORE FLOW
RESUMES THIS WEEKEND AND UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE GET INTO THE MESSY SW FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROF. 47

MARINE...
STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MOR-
NING AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. CAUTION FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAIS-
ED FOR THIS MORNING AS A RESULT. THESE STRONG S/SELY WINDS HAVE ALSO
HELPED TO INCREASE WATER RUN-UP ALONG BEACHES/COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS
MORNING WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPR-
OVE BY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN AS LOW TIDE APPROACHES AND WINDS
DECREASE/SHIFT.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTN WITH NORTH WINDS STRENGTHENING THIS EVENING. THE LIGHT/MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW IS FCST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...
WITH ONSHORE WINDS NOT RETURNING UNTIL LATE FRI OR SO. 41

AVIATION...
SCT TSRA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP THE FCST INTEREST-
ING FOR THE 12Z TAFS...FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 6HRS OR SO. THEREAFTER
WE SHOULD BE SEEING MUCH IMPROVED CONDITIONS AS THE COOLER/DRIER AIR
FINALLY MAKES IT DOWN INTO SE TX. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  55  76  57  81 /  60  10  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              78  61  79  58  83 /  60  10  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  66  78  66  81 /  70  10  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
     MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...43



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