Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 031323
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
923 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A COLD UPPER LOW WILL DIP ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING CHILLIER TEMPERATURES AND
SCATTERED GUSTY SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRYING AND WARMING
WILL FOLLOW INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM TUESDAY...HAVE UPPED POPS IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION TO
100 PERCENT THIS MORNING GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWING NEARLY
CONTINUOUS HEAVY CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT HOUR. ANALYSIS OF MORNING DATA SHOWS WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A BIT OF A LULL AFTER THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...WITH A POSSIBLE REGENERATION OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE THREAT OF DAMAGING
TSTMS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTION ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...THE FIRST THIS MORNING AS A LINE OF MODERATE SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTM DOWNPOURS PROGRESSES SEAWARD ACROSS NE SC AND SE NC
THROUGH MORNING HOURS...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE IMPULSING
TRACKING ENE OVERHEAD. SO FAR THIS ACTIVITY HAS NOT HAD A HISTORY
OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS. RE-GENERATION APPEARS LIKELY AND POSSIBLY
SEVERE...DURING OR FOLLOWING PEAK HEATING AND PERSISTING THROUGH
EVENING. CAPE AXIS OF 2000 J/KG AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE OF 800 J/KG
TRACK NE ACROSS THE AREA MID- AFTN TO MID- EVENING. HELICITY
FIELDS ARE NOT HIGH BUT ENOUGH LAYERED BULKSHEAR APPEARS AVAILABLE
FOR STORMS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS 65-70...AND
A HYBRID INVERTED-V PROFILE. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH 4Z. PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
AND CLOUDS TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. LOCALIZED FLOODING CANNOT
BE RULED OUT DUE TO PARTIAL TRAINING OF SCT +TSRA CELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...CHIEF HEADLINE THIS PERIOD IS A DRYING AND
COOLING TREND...AS MID-LEVEL DRYING GEARS UP WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL SWOOP SE AND BRING GUSTY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY BY 10 DEG F. CHILLY MINIMUMS EARLY FRIDAY AS
LOW AS UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE AREA. FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES
BUT DRYNESS ALOFT...SO MAY END UP WITH ISOLATED GUSTY SHOWERS AT
TIMES BOTH WED/THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ESSENTIALLY A
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN
TRANSITIONS INTO RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BY MONDAY A
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH SOUTH BUT AS WE PROGRESS
FURTHER TOWARD SUMMER...THESE SYSTEMS STRUGGLE TO MAKE INROADS
THROUGH OUR AREA. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE REMAINS ON THE WARM SIDE AS
WE HOLD TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW. THE ONLY POPS IN THE FORECAST ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MEANDERING UPPER LEVEL LOW FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS BETWEEN THE INLAND
AND COASTAL TERMINALS AT TAF TIME. THE CONVECTION IS ENDING FROM
SW-NE AS AN UPPER IMPULSE NOTED IN WV IMAGERY MOVES NE. WITH MODELS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE A DECREASING TREND IN THUNDERSTORM/SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL FOR AOB VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.

WITH SUBSIDENCE AND CLOUDINESS BEHIND THE DEPARTING ACTIVITY IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER...BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY...MAINLY ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL
JUST INDICATE VCSH/VCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ATTM. AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS MORNING TAF SITES WILL BE VFR BUT CANNOT
DISCOUNT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LATE THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS
DEVELOPS AND THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY RE-FORMS. VFR THIS EVENING
BUT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT THE INTRODUCTION OF
COOLER AIR MAY CAUSE MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO DEVELOP.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SCT 4SM SHRA THU
AND

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM TUESDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
STILL PREVALENT OVER THE WATERS...WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS AND SW
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. PRIMARY THREAT TO BOATING THIS MORNING MAY
ACTUALLY BE FROM THUNDERSTORMS...WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

EXERCISE CAUTION MARINE CONDITIONS TO PRECEDE A COLD FRONT WITH
15-20 KT SW WINDS AND 4-5 FT SEAS OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY SCATTERED
TSTMS WILL PRODUCE SEVERE MARINE WINDS OF UP TO 50 KT IN SPOTS.
MARINERS SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE HEADING
OUT TODAY OR TONIGHT. BUMPY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY MORE TREACHEROUS
IN AND NEAR TSTMS...AND KILLER CLOUD TO WATER STRIKES. DOMINANT
WAVE PERIOD WILL MAKE FOR STEEP SEAS...RUNNING EVERY 5-6 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...THE MAIN MARINE HEADLINE THIS PERIOD IS
DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS WED
AND POTENTIALLY STRENGTHENING THU. THIS IS GOING TO RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN OFFSHORE NW WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT MAINLY DRY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT COOLER AIR TEMPERATURES. AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF THE LOW IS DEEP ENOUGH FOR 25 KT NW
WINDS THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. SEAS COULD REACH 5 FT OFFSHORE THU
BUT INSHORE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FEET.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...CONSISTENT WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK PERIOD FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY. THE WATERS WILL BE IN NO
MANS LAND...IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS SETUP WILL DELIVER NORTHWEST WINDS OF
10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE CONSISTENT AS
WELL...WITH 2-4 FEET AND THE HIGHEST WAVES FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH
THE FLOW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK


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