Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 300223
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1023 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
...WITH AN EXTENSION ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WILL BRING WARM LATE
SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ..ALONG
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING LOCAL RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM FRIDAY...ONCE AGAIN UPDATED POPS AND SKIES ACROSS
THE ILM CWA...VIA LATEST KLTX 88D AND SAT IMAGERY TRENDS...TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DISSIPATING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT OCCURRED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AS IT
PUSHED INLAND EARLIER THIS EVENING. DO NOT THINK ENOUGH MOISTURE
AT THE LOWER LEVELS PUSHED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TO WARRANT
AREAS/WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT FOG. HOWEVER...ENOUGH RECOVERY OF
...SFC...DEWPOINTS TO WELL IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW AT-LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ONCE SFC WINDS DECOUPLE OR
DROP TO NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS. MOISTURE DEPTH IN THE LOWER
LEVELS REMAINS SUSPECT FOR ANY OF THE SHRA THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS TO MOVE ONSHORE. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS
OUT OF THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.............................................
AS OF 600 PM FRIDAY...UPDATED POPS AND SKIES ACROSS THE FA MAINLY
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...AND EXTRAPOLATED WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FA THROUGH 9 PM. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE
PRODUCING SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH EVEN ISOLATED SHRA VIA
LATEST KLTX 88D AND SAT IMAGERY. THE CLOUDS AND PCPN ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE FA MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND
SHOULD SEE A QUICK DECLINE OF PCPN AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BY/AFTER
SUNSET. NO LIGHTNING DATA THUS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.............................................
AS OF 214 PM FRIDAY...THE FRONT HAS MOVED TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AND THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH
OF THE 925 MB THETA-E GRADIENT AND THE LATEST BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONFIRMS THE BEST MOISTURE IS ALONG THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE 14 UTC HRRR
CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A LUMBERTON TO
BURGAW LINE SO HAVE ADDED A 20 PERCENT POP IF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
DOES SNEAK FARTHER SOUTH BY THE END OF THE DAY.

CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 214 PM FRIDAY...A FAIR WEATHER LABOR WEEKEND ON TAP WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO ACCOMPANY AN OVERALL DRYISH COLUMN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SURFACE
HEATING AND MOISTURE RETURN TO POP A FEW SHOWERS OR A STORM
BRIEFLY ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT WILL
STRENGTHEN ALONG AND NEAR THE SEA BREEZE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING...WITH CHANCES LOOKING SLIGHTLY BETTER SUNDAY.

LIGHT WINDS PRESENTLY ACROSS THE REGION ARE NOT ADVECTING MUCH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE SEA AND MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY
FROM THE COAST AND COASTAL INTERIOR. PATCHES OF FOG MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE INTERIOR COOL POCKETS OR PROTECTED COASTAL LOCATIONS BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY WITH NO FOG ISSUES TO START SAT.

MAXIMUMS SAT/SUN LOW/MID 90S WEST OF I-95 AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FARTHER EAST...MINIMUMS SUN/MON MORNING GENERALLY 70-76 AND
MILDEST NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 214 PM FRIDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIP FARTHER SOUTH
AS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING AS A VERY BROAD RIDGE TAKES
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH A VERY BROAD TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN A
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS PIEDMONT TROUGH TO THE
WEST WILL REMAIN FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE THROUGH THE ALMOST ZONAL FLOW ON
MONDAY ENHANCING CONVECTION MON AFTN AND A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
WILL CARRY THESE SHWRS/TSTMS TOWARD THE COAST. THE PCP WATER
REACHES UP ABOVE 2 INCHES MON NIGHT INTO TUES AFTN. A DEEPER DRIER
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE IN BEHIND SHORTWAVE LATE TUES WITH PCP
WATER VALUES DROPPING TO 1.75 INCHES. OVERALL WILL SEE A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPS
RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCED BY
SOME PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT...ESPECIALLY MON INTO TUES.
DEWPOINT TEMPS UP ABOVE 70 WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN 70S AND
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH CLOSE TO 90 ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE
MID 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT. CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT...PRIMARILY
AFTER 06Z AS LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS BECOME CALM. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
IFR VSBYS AT KLBT BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS AND LOCAL CLIMO. KFLO WILL
LIKELY ALSO SEE AT LEAST TEMPO IFR BEFORE 12Z. WILL MAINTAIN MVFR
VSBYS AT THE COASTAL TERMS...ALTHOUGH TEMPO IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FOR FOG-PRONE KCRE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13-14Z SAT.
THEN VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS AOB 10 KT. NO MENTION OF PCPN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE...THOUGH
AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTN.
BUT OVERALL...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS
CONVECTION.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED FROM THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION.

HOWEVER...THE PROBLEM CHILD OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED NOCTURNAL -SHRA MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
OFFSHORE WITHIN THE LIGHT SE LOW LEVEL FLOW. CURRENTLY...NO POPS
ARE INDICATED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. VIA LATEST KLTX 88D RADAR
TRENDS...THE -SHRA THAT DOES DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE...CONTINUES TO
TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...AND DISSIPATING PRIOR TO EVEN
REACHING THE ILM COASTAL WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.............................................
AS OF 615 PM FRIDAY...ONLY CHANGE TO THE FCST TONIGHT WAS TO
INCLUDE A SE-S WIND DIRECTION BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
LATEST PROGGED SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT FOR TONIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AROUND 2 FT...EXCEPT INCLUDED 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR
NORTHWARD AND INCLUDED 3 FT OUTER WATERS FROM OFF THE MOUTH OF
WINYAH BAY. SIG. SEAS MAINLY A RESULT OF AN 8-9 SECOND PERIOD
EASTERLY GROUND SWELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................
AS OF 214 PM FRIDAY...CURRENTLY SEEING THE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION
ON THE NEAR SHORE BUOYS AND RADAR. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
BUOYS ARE SHOWING A 2 FOOT DOMINANT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON WILL AS SE
SWELL MIXED IN. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED IN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET UNTIL MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 214 PM FRIDAY...A GOOD WEEKEND ON THE WATERS WEATHER-WISE
AS MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET IN AN EVOLVING AND BUILDING
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN. SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT SAT WILL
BECOME S 10 TO 15 KT SUNDAY...WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FORMING
INLAND TO SHARPEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY. SEAS 2 - 2.5 FT
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 2 FT AT 8-9
SECONDS AND S WAVES 1 FOOT EVERY 4 SECONDS. ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP
OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND FAVORED LATE
NIGHT AND THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 214 PM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH OFF SHORE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH
INLAND WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. THE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED BY
THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTN. THE WEAK SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL KEEP SEAS 1
TO 3 FT WITH A SLIGHT CHOP EACH AFTN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH/DRH
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR






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