Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KILM 260215
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1015 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AND OFFSHORE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FINALLY WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM...OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS TO MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES...LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 2 PM FOLLOWS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS WERE SHOWING A SMALL BIT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE 06 UTC RUN BUT THIS HAS BEEN
DIMINISHED IN THE 12 UTC NAM AND GFS RUNS.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WITH WINDS INCREASING
ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH THE SPEED MAX BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LOWER DEW-POINTS FOG IS NOT AN ISSUE.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
INLAND AND LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD...FINALLY REACHING THE CAROLINAS MONDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORNING WITH
VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF MARINE INFLUENCE
ALONG THE BEACHES DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WON`T MOVE OFFSHORE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN WILL REMAIN DRY AND ESSENTIALLY CLOUD-FREE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IN FACT IT IS DISTRESSING HOW DRY THE AIR BECOMES AROUND
900 MB (~3000 FT AGL) AS THERE IS THE VERY REAL POTENTIAL THIS
BONE-DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS -10C TO -20C GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE
DAYTIME MIXED LAYER. AS IT IS NOW I HAVE DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO FALL
TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S SUNDAY AND AS LOW AS 40 ON
MONDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 25-30 PERCENT.
FORTUNATELY LIGHT WINDS BOTH DAYS WILL HELP MINIMIZE FIRE WEATHER
IMPACTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS SHOULD RUN 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE I-95 CORRIDOR LIKELY TOUCHING/EXCEEDING 80
DEGREES. CLOSER TO THE COAST MARINE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP HIGHS A
BIT COOLER. RECENT MOS BIAS STATISTICS SHOWS GFS MOS HAS BEEN
RUNNING 1-2 DEGREES TOO WARM WITH HIGHS...AND A DEGREE OR LESS TOO
WARM WITH LOWS. THE NAM MOS HAS LESS RECENT ACCUMULATED BIAS
EXCEPT AT LBT AND CRE WHERE ITS HIGHS HAVE BEEN A BIT WARM
RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY
WITH SURFACE AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE COAST. THIS
WILL HOLD TRUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL ALTHOUGH BOTH FEATURES WILL BE
BOTH PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WEAKENING. THE WAY WILL THEN BE
PAVED THURSDAY FOR MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND HEIGHT FALLS. THIS
TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND A VERY
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE MAY CROSS INTO THE CAROLINAS BY EVENING.
THE LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS IS RATHER BAGGY AND
DISORGANIZED AND THIS MOISTURE WHILE VERY LIMITED IN SCOPE MAY
LINGER OVER PART OF THE AREA FOR A WHILE...WAITING FOR A LARGER
PIECE OF ENERGY TO KICK IT OFFSHORE. THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY/HALLOWEEN MORNING. THE 00Z ECWMF IS A NEW AND
RATHER EXTREME SOLUTION IN DEVELOPING VERY DEEP AND LARGE CUTOFF
OVER TN...WHICH WOULD KEEP LOCAL WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR POSSIBLY MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND. THE PREFRONTAL RETURN FLOW REGIME WILL FEATURE
PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER THIS HIGHS IN THE 80S. THURSDAYS HIGH MAY BE
HELD IN CHECK SLIGHTLY BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BUT STILL A BIT
ABOVE CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION UNDERWAY BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY. AGAIN THIS MAY BE MODIFIED ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR TO PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT WITH WEST WINDS AOB 5
KT...BECOMING LIGHT/VRBL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET AND LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FOG FORMATION. AS
A COLD FRONT RACES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AOB 10 KT AT
ALL TERMINALS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM...GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.  PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 2 PM FOLLOWS.

THE VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WEST AFTER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE ABATES AFTER SUNSET. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS TO
15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SEAS OF 1 FOOT WILL INCREASE TO 2 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY MORNING...THEN
OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE HIGH AS
HIGH AS 15 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL STEADILY DECREASE IN SPEED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN VEER CLOCKWISE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE ONLY 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
ONLY A SMALL WIND CHOP INTERMITTENTLY SHOWING UP ON TOP OF A WEAK
SOUTHEAST SWELL.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL HELP KEEP WIND SPEEDS QUITE TAME.
AS SUCH SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NO LARGE THAN 2 FT. AS BOTH RETREAT AND
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY THE FLOW WILL
VEER TO WESTERLY  BUT NO INCREASE IN WIND SPEED ANTICIPATED. THIS
WILL KEEP SEAS MINIMAL ONCE AGAIN. THE DECELERATING FRONT MOVES INTO
THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND HOW MUCH FARTHER IT PROGRESSES FROM THERE
IS UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIFFER REGARDING THE FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.