Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 160252
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1051 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN BY FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S AND NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK FOR SOME LOCATIONS WELL INLAND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL OFFSHORE
LATE THIS EVE AND STRONG COOL AND DRY ADVECTION HAS TAKEN HOLD.
TEMPS THROUGHOUT WERE ALREADY IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES WITH
NW TO N WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 35 MPH. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WERE
EXITING THE CAPE FEAR COAST WITH THIS WRITING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPS AT ABOUT 5 KFT TO NEAR ZERO
DEGREES CELCIUS OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S NEAR DAYBREAK WED. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ELEVATED
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WE DO NOT EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS TO DECREASE
BELOW 10 TO 15 MPH AND IT SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THUS...WE ARE NOT FORECASTING ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT THROUGH WED
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE W AND NW
AND WITH THAT...SKIES WERE CLEARING ACROSS OUR INLAND ZONES AND THIS
CLEARING WILL SPREAD TO THE BEACHES OVERNIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WINTER TO MAKE ONE FINAL (HOPEFULLY)
RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN THE COAST BEHIND TUESDAYS COLD FRONT. WHILE THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE JANUARY THAN APRIL...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OF WHICH TO SPEAK DURING MID-WEEK...THE
SHORT TERM IS PRIMARILY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THAT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN SUB-60 (APPROACHING
RECORD LOW HIGHS). IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO KEEP HIGHS BELOW 60 THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT TRUE AND
STRONG CAA IN PLACE. WHILE NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY...AND
BACK TRAJECTORIES SHOW THE AIR MASS ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA...FULL MID-APRIL SUN AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WHICH ACTUALLY
RISE THROUGH THE DAY WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. IN
FACT...1000-850MB THICKNESSES CLIMB FROM AROUND 1290M (SUPPORTIVE OF
SNOW!) TO 1320M BY THE WED NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY A
VERY SHALLOW COLD DOME AND WEAK MIXING...WILL BUMP HIGHS A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY FROM INHERITED. STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO BE SUB-60 ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER...WITH LOW 60S IN THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER BASIN. GUSTY NE WINDS AROUND THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE
WEDGE WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER THROUGH THE AFTN. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ON
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S. THIS IS STILL
BELOW NORMAL...BUT MUCH MORE REASONABLE FOR MID-APRIL.

THE LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...AND WILL APPROACH
RECORD VALUES FOR THE DATE. MOS BULLETINS SUGGEST LOWS DROPPING TO
FREEZING OR BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MID 30S
AT THE COAST. THIS WOULD APPROACH OR SET RECORDS:

RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING 4/17:
WILMINGTON, NC - 34
FLORENCE, SC - 33
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH, SC - 32

HOWEVER...EXPECT IT WOULD TAKE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING OR STRONG
CAA TO DRIVE TEMPS TO FREEZING...NEITHER OF WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND IN FACT SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE OCEAN
MAY CREATE SOME ENHANCED STRATUS/STRATOCU WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WOULD FURTHER INHIBIT COOLING. NONETHELESS...WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
EXTREMELY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH WIDESPREAD MID 30S
LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL PREVENT THE NECESSITY FOR ANY FREEZE
PRODUCTS...FROST IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO NO FROST IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...BUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
WHAT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AND DEVELOPS TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. THIS SHOULD SPREAD AMPLE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS LOW RAIN CHANCES LONG THE
COAST. DRY AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY  NIGHT AS WILL MID LEVEL
NVA DUE TO THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. DAMPENING MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLE AND SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE FOR MONDAY...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS.
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AT KFLO AND WILL END AT KLBT BY 01Z. NW-N
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. POST
FRONTAL MVFR/BORDERLINE IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONLY EARLY THIS
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD BECOME SCT BY MIDNIGHT.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF BRIEF BUT MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
WILL MOVE THROUGH KCRE/KMYR 00-01Z AND KILM 01-02Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW-N WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. POST FRONTAL
MVFR/BORDERLINE IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER FROPA...WITH THE BEST CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT KCRE/KILM.
SKIES SHOULD BECOME SCT SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT VFR/CLEAR SKIES AND N-NE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS DECREASING IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WAS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVE. WINDS WERE FROM
THE NW AND N AND WILL SLOWLY VEER TO NNE BY MORNING. THE LAST OF THE
SHOWERS WILL MOVE E OF THE WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 9 FT AND UP TO 10 FT AS YOU MOVE OUT TO
NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS. NORTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY KNOCK SEAS DOWN
ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF LONG BAY OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN
THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...CREATING GUSTY NE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHEN WINDS VEER FROM NORTH TO NE AT
20-30 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN NE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SLOWLY DECREASING SPEEDS TO 10-15 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT.
WAVES WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY A N/NE WIND WAVE...WITH AMPLITUDES
OF 5-8 FT WEDNESDAY FALLING TO 4-6 FT THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE IN THE TYPICAL WAVE-SHADOW REGION SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE NE
WINDS GET BLOCKED...AND THUS WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE JUST 1-3 FT
LOCALLY IN THE NEAR SHORE PORTIONS OF AMZ252 AND AMZ254. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH ALL OF THURSDAY...AND MAY
NEED FURTHER EXPANSION INTO FRIDAY WITH LATER UPDATES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A NORTHERLY COMPONENT WILL BE FOUND IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. INITIALLY IT WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE FORECAST ZONES LIE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER LAND AND A SURFACE TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT PINCH FOR SOME ADVISORY-WORTHY 6 FT
SEAS BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS BOTH FEATURES WILL BE IN A
WEAKENING STATE. SATURDAY BRINGS A RENEWED PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST BUT THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL NO
LONGER BE A PLAYER. THIS BACKS THE FLOW A BIT TO NORTHERLY. AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO SUNDAY LOCAL WINDS WILL VEER
BACK TO NORTHEASTERLY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW/BJR
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR








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