Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KILM 292346
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
746 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL CAROLINAS
WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS MEANDERING WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM WEDNESDAY...JUST TOO WARM IN THE MID-LEVELS...BETWEEN
550MB AND 350MB...RESULTING IN NO REAL VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH
THIS AFTN AND EVENINGS CU FIELD. A FEW MODERATE CU PRODUCED VERY
BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AS EVIDENCED BY THE KLTX 88D
OUTPUT. WITH THE DAYS HEATING OVERWITH...ANY FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION OVER LAND IS DOUBTFUL FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...OVER THE ADJACENT ATL WATERS...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A RATHER DEEP NE WIND THRU THE ATM COLUMN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THIS FLOW DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP ANY NOCTURNAL ATLANTIC
PCPN PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINAS COASTLINES. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
WILL BE LAND AREAS INVOLVING CAPE FEAR...AND ALSO CAPE ROMAINE
WHERE ISOLATED SHRA MAY CROSS OVER. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF WITH
THIS POSSIBLE SHRA EFFECTS FROM OFF THE ATL...BUT WILL AGAIN MAKE
A DECISION AT THE NEXT UPDATE WHETHER TO INCLUDE THIS ISOLATED
PCPN. WEIRD RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY ORIENTATION AS IT PUSHED
INLAND LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. DID CAUSE SOME RE-ADJUSTING TO
THE HOURLY DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA. BASICALLY LOOKING AT LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE...HIGHEST AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

PREVIOUS.......................................................
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...DRY NNWRLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND NE SURFACE
FLOW HAS THUS FAR KEPT THE COLUMN QUITE DRY THROUGH MUCH OF ITS
DEPTH. EVEN THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WELL INLAND THAT WERE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CELLULAR/CU HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED AS
THEY MIXED OUT INTO THE DRY AIR. FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE
MID LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE TO NORTHEASTERLY LINED UP WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA...THEN STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY PRIOR TO BECOMING
INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FAR OFF THE COAST
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS TX/NM RESULTING IN A
CONTINUATION OF WEAK MID/UPPER TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE MID/UPPER TROF IS IN A LITTLE BETTER SHAPE FRIDAY AND
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IN THE VICINITY THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL EXIST. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS ALSO QUITE HIGH THURSDAY...AND WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE WEAK INLAND TROF AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. BETTER INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP AND BE AVAILABLE DURING FRIDAY. MAV NUMBERS LOOK
REASONABLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS/LOWS WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMO.

ALSO REGARDING MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH...THE TIDE LEVELS MAY GET
CLOSE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND
SPRINGMAID PIER WITH HIGH TIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. IT
LOOKS LIKE THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET AT THE WILMINGTON RIVERFRONT
TIDE GAUGE AS WELL THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD INVOLVES A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE IN THE VICINITY THIS WKND.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES SAT AND SUN AS
THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND WASHES OUT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS BEING PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE SE
COAST...FILTERING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE GFS IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS DRYING...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COOLING...A CLEAR DISCONNECT. WHILE THIS FRONT
IS TECHNICALLY OF POLAR ORIGIN (VERY NEAT TO SEE THE TERM POLAR
FRONT USED BY WPC IN THE SOUTHEAST IN JULY)...THERE APPEARS TO BE
LITTLE TRUE COOL ADVECTION WITH IT. ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN MAINTAINS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO THE
WEST...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE FRONT DISSIPATING ALONG THE COAST
AS OPPOSED TO WELL OFFSHORE. WILL SIDE WITH WPC AND KEEP THE FRONT
ALONG THE COAST SAT/SUN...BUT WILL WALK POP DOWN DUE TO DRYING
ALOFT. STILL SCT SHOWERS/AND TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS WKND WITH TEMPS
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

LONGWAVE TROUGH ERODES NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS EXPANDS
TO THE NE. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH 850MB TEMPS AND 500MB HEIGHTS
CLIMBING EACH DAY. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE TEMPS RISING TO WELL
ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH CLIMO OR BELOW POP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWING NOT MUCH HAPPENING
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE WE WILL BE VFR UNTIL AROUND 09Z WHEN SOME FOG CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DECOUPLED ATMOSPHERE WILL LEND ITSELF TO RIPE CONDITIONS ACROSS
KLBT AND KFLO. HIGH CLOUDS WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTER 15Z WITH MAINLY A LIGHT E TO SE WIND.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE
WEST THAT WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 00Z. MODELS SHOW REGION BETWEEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE WEST
AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SE WHICH SHOULD PASS WELL
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM WEDNESDAY...SFC PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE AREA WATERS
TO YIELD A ENE-E WIND FIELD. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TO YIELD
10-15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. THIS DUE TO A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE SE
U.S. COASTLINE. A FEW -SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS BOUNDARY AND TRACK TO THE SW...AND FOR THE MOST PART
REMAINING PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINES. A FEW COULD COULDDRIFT
ACROSS CAPE FEAR AND/OR CAPE ROMAINE TOWARDS DAYBREAK THU.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT...WITH THE 4 FOOTERS MOST
COMMON FROM SURF CITY TO THE VICINITY OF CAPE FEAR. DOMINANT
PERIODS WILL RUN 4 TO 6 SECONDS INDICATIVE OF SHORT PERIOD WIND
DRIVEN WAVES PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS.

PREVIOUS.....................................................
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK LOW ALONG A DISSIPATING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR SOUTH IS BRINGING EASTERLY WINDS. SEAS ARE
AVERAGING 3 FT...THE LACK OF AN APPRECIABLE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE
WAVE HEIGHT CAUSED BY THE ONSHORE FLOW DIRECTION. ABOUT THE ONLY
THING THAT MAY CHANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS A BACKING TO NE SHOULD
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL LOW STRENGTHEN OR DRIFT NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU ALONG
WITH A WEAK INLAND TROUGH WILL ONLY SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE OUTER BANKS
DURING FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST AND
STALLS. AS A RESULT...LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY THEN
BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WASHING OUT ENTIRELY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS FRONTAL PLACEMENT...BUT
EXPECT IT TO STALL AND FALL APART JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS. THIS
WILL LEAVE A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH SW FLOW BECOMING
PREDOMINANT ONCE AGAIN AS BERMUDA HIGH RE-ASSERTS ITSELF. WINDS
SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...GRADUALLY BECOMING SW AROUND
10 KTS BY SUNDAY AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT
SATURDAY WHEN WINDS ARE THE LIGHTEST...BECOMING 3-4 FT FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY ON THE GREATER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED GROUND SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MAC


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.