Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KILM 091725
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1225 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY AIR MASS IN THE REGION TODAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE
PASSAGE OF A DRY ARCTIC FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND THE START
OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK COULD BE THE COLDEST
OF THE YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE UNABATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MORE CLOUD COVER POISED TO ENTER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST AND WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SOME OF
THEM ARE LOOKING A LITTLE CONVECTIVE. GLOBAL AND HIGHER RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY. HOWEVER WILL KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON RADAR LOOPS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING COUPLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...ANOMALOUSLY DEEP 5H CUTOFF OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTHEAST WED. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT DURING THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE
LONGWAVE 5H TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN
HEIGHTS THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE CLUTCHES OF THE SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIR. HIGHS WED AND THU STRUGGLE TO REACH 40...WITH LOW LEVEL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. PERIOD WILL BE DRY
BUT PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE 5H TROUGH COULD LEAD TO BRIEF
PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER WED AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATER THU.

WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE A CONCERN WED THROUGH THU GIVEN
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AND THE ANTICIPATED
BREEZY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH VALUES APPROACHING SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES
WED NIGHT. WINDS DO START TO EASE UP LATE THU AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT IS EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE A FIXTURE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ONLY THE AMPLITUDE VARYING. SURFACE HIGH IN THE AREA
FRI IS PUSHED SOUTH BY PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SAT
MORNING...DRIVEN SOUTH BY CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. FRONT PASSES DRY BUT IS TRAILED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR. LATEST GFS/ECMWF HAVE 850 TEMPS DROPPING BY ALMOST 15C IN A 24
HOUR SPAN FRI NIGHT TO SAT NIGHT. THE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE EASING ON SUN AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GUIDANCE IS
POINTING AT POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...STARTING LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY MON. DID NOT GO QUITE THAT COLD BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH FOR. CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT WILL ALSO
OPEN UP THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH COULD PRODUCE
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THIS WINTER.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST DURING MON WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM...WHICH
WOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAINFALL BUT CURRENT SOLUTIONS SHOW LIMITED
DYNAMICS. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ONLY A BRIEF DURATION OF DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH. SO EVEN IF SOME
PRECIP DOES DEVELOP IT WOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. AS THIS EVENT
IS STILL 6 DAYS OUT NOT READY TO GO WITH A HIGH POP BUT WILL
INTRODUCE A SILENT 20 FOR MON. ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON
MON TEMPERATURES WILL STILL END UP WELL BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE SLOW
RATE AT WHICH ARCTIC AIR MASSES MODIFY AND THE EXPECTED COLD START
MON MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BLUSTERY W WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT THROUGH 01Z. SLIGHT EASING OF
WINDS TONIGHT. CIGS BKN045 AND BKN100. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
THROUGH THE VALID TAF CYCLE. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED. SLIGHT EASING OF
WINDS AFT 01Z TO A 27010KT-26007KT RANGE. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
PREVENT FOG FORMATION...WHILE THE WESTERLY COMPONENT AND DRYISH LOW
LEVELS PREVENTS LOW-BASED STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS GUSTING
TO 20 TO 30+ KT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDIITONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS DO INCREASE A LITTLE BY 00 UTC BUT SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST UNDER GALE CRITERIA. CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS
OF GALE GUSTS. NO SURPRISE WITH SEAS...6-9 FEET ACROSS OUTER WATERS
WITH LOWER VALUES AS YOU MOVE TO THE COAST.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WED WILL KEEP WESTERLY
FLOW AROUND 25 KT THROUGH WED NIGHT. ADVECTION STARTS TO WEAKEN ON
THU WHICH ALLOWS FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY DECREASE IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS THU AND THU NIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN WINDS VEERING TO
NORTHEAST AND DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT ON WED
WILL GRADUALLY START DECREASING LATE WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE
FALLING THROUGH THU AND THU NIGHT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD SEAS
WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA FRI IS PUSHED TO
THE SOUTH LATE FRI NIGHT BY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATERS
SAT MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI WILL INCREASE A LITTLE DURING THE
DAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES BUT SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL LATER SAT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY
SAT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW EXCEEDING 20 KT SAT AND 25 KT SAT NIGHT.
GUSTS LATE SAT NIGHT MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT FRI
INTO SAT START BUILDING ON SAT...PEAKING IN THE 3 TO 6 FT RANGE
LATE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...GUIDANCE STILL CALLING FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF COASTAL FLOODING AT DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER
HIGH CONSIDERING THE PAST FEW CYCLES AND LEVELS. WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED THE ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MJC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SHK


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.