Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 291914
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
314 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Intermittent rain will stay in the area through Tuesday until the
tropical system makes its slow departure. Moisture will hang
around for most of the week so while sunshine should return in
part there will still be a scattering of storms each day. A cold
front will approach next weekend and may stall over the area
keeping unsettled weather through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM Sunday...Tropical Depression Bonnie is nearly
stationary near Charleston SC this afternoon. Latest guidance keeps
it more or less in this location through the overnight hours while
it continues to spin waves of showers ashore with a very few
embedded thunderstorms. Wind is not a threat and area obs continue
to show surface speeds in the 10 to 15 kt range with gusts up around
25 mph. Heavy rain and the attendant risk for localized flooding or
ponding of roadways is still considered the primary threat for the
remainder of today and tonight. Have retained heavy rain wording in
the public forecast for the near term. Latest Hurricane Center
advisory has Bonnie making a slow drift northwards into interior
eastern SC through tomorrow morning before making a turn to the east
and then NE towards the Cape Fear region. Although SPC does not have
us in any enhanced risk category for tornados, a quick spin-up this
afternoon is not out of the question, so we will be keeping a close
eye out for any suspicious circulations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM Sunday...Tropical Depression Bonnie is forecast to
drift east-northeast across northeastern South Carolina, ending up
over the Cape Fear Region early on Tuesday. Thereafter Bonnie is
expected to drift to the northeast and out of the area. Latest
guidance starts out the short term with some dryer air at the mid-
levels, with the column again becoming saturated fairly quickly. In
any case there will be ample tropical moisture to work with as P/W
values will be in excess of 1.75 inches through the period.
Unsettled weather will continue through the short term with bouts of
heavy rain being the primary threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...The slow moving TD or remnant low from
Bonnie should be near Cape Lookout Wednesday morning continuing on
its slow northern track toward Hatteras through the day. Should
see some drier air wrap around the back end into the area but
still plenty of low level moisture to contend with. Therefore will
continue with some clouds through Wed with pcp being more
localized. A continued diminishing trend in moisture will occur
through mid week into Thurs with increasing sunshine and warming
temps reaching well into the 80s. The NW to W flow, or more off
shore flow on the back end of departing low will come against sea
breeze to produce some locally heavier rain or stronger
convection. GFS shows decent coverage Thurs aftn just inland of
the coast where best convergence and lift will be as winds begin
to come around to the SW. Winds will shift around to a deeper SW
flow of moisture as shortwave pushes a cold front toward the
Carolinas Fri into the weekend. Expect pcp water values back up
near 2 inches late Fri into Saturday as moisture pools ahead of
cold front. This front may reach into the area and stall over the
weekend. Overall expect some clearing on the back end of the low
through mid week as moisture diminishes on back end of departing
low, but then increasing again as cold front moves in and possibly
stalls over the Carolinas over next weekend. For now, kept chc
pops in most days to account for some uncertainty. Temps will be
well up into the 80s most days with overnight lows remaining quite
high with such a moist air mass in place.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 18Z...A meandering tropical depression will give lots of
opportunities for intermittent showers through the forecast period.
Gusty southeast winds this afternoon along the coast, a bit more
northeasterly inland and not as strong. Ceilings will bounce around
a lot, but will remain predominately near IFR.  The NAM is
portraying convection continuing through the overnight hours,
possibly with the best coverage toward morning. Monday, more of the
same as the low remains nearly stationary.

Extended Outlook...Unsettled weather through Thursday with possible
SHRA/isolated TSRA and TEMPO MVFR/IFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM Sunday...Tropical Depression Bonnie is nearly
stationary near Charleston SC this afternoon. Latest guidance
keeps it more or less in this location through the overnight
hours. Small Craft advisories will continue for all waters into
the evening hours. Latest obs show 5 to 7 ft seas for much of the
nearshore waters. Expect we will be able to drop the advisories
before midnight as the gradient associated with Bonnie continues
to weaken.


SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM Sunday...Tropical Depression Bonnie is forecast to
drift east- northeast across northeastern South Carolina, ending
up over the Cape Fear Region early on Tuesday. Thereafter Bonnie
is expected to drift to the northeast and out of the area. The
gradient associated with Bonnie will not be strong enough to bring
winds or seas up to advisory criteria so do not expect any flags
during the short term. Seas will generally hover in the 3 to 4 ft
range, with winds of 10 to 15 kts. The greatest threat during the
short term will be from heavy showers, which will be possible
through the period, and the odd thunderstorm.


LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...As TD or remnant low from Bonnie drifts
slowly up the NC coast on Wed, winds should be more off shore and
weakening allowing seas to relax even further. Overall expect a
W-NW on Wed to come around to the W-SW and eventually SW by later
on Thurs into Friday. The off shore flow will allow seas to drop
below 3 ft by late Wed into Thurs with a slow rising trend heading
into the weekend in minor southerly push in increased gradient
winds due to an approaching cold front. Winds will basically
remain S-SW less than 15 kts late Thurs into the weekend with seas
rising slightly Fri night but remaining in the 2 to 4 ft range.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL


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