Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 041414
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1014 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THIS WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY...RADAR SCOPE REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING.
ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDING DATA CONFIRMS EARLIER THINKING
REGARDING THE FORECAST...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING THIS
AFTERNOON. SPC NOW HAS US IN A MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS ACTIVE THIS MORNING AND LOOKING
UPSTREAM...IT MAY CONTINUE TO BE SO FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY. THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF SHORTWAVES/CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ADVERTISE
GOOD CHANCE POPS BEGINNING ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE IN ALABAMA AND EVEN THE ONE IN ITS WAKE MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. OPTED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WHICH
THIS CYCLE IS A NOD TO THE MAV NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN IN A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH. A LONGER WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY LEAVING A SHORTWAVE TO OUR
WEST WHICH TRIES TO CLOSE OFF BY LATE SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST ENERGY WILL
REMAIN WEST OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA BUT MAY REACH FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO PROVIDE HEIGHT FALLS AND HELP ENHANCE LOCALIZED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AS SHORTWAVE DEEPENS
THROUGH SUNDAY PRODUCING A SHIFT IN WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION. THEREFORE ANY CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS ALONG PIEDMONT
TROUGH OR SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE N-NE THROUGH
THE AFTN. NAM SHOWS EARLY START TO CONVECTION ON SUNDAY WITH
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL AREA BY LATE SUN
AFTN BUT ALSO INDICATES SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEST OF I95.
MONDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE LOCALIZED CONVECTION AS COLUMN CONTINUES
TO BE VERY MOIST WITH PCP WATER VALUES UP CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AND
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND HEIGHT FALLS TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST...BEFORE IT LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY. OVERALL...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN
WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS WITH LOCALIZED CONVECTION
FOCUSED ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT...PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OTHER
CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES. EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD CUT A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE
DAYTIME HIGHS AND ADD A FEW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
LEAVING A FLATTER FLOW WITH WEAK RIDGING THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE SFC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
INFLUENCED BY ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH A FAIRLY TYPICAL MOIST SW FLOW
THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH AND EAST. THIS FRONT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AND WEAKENS BUT LOOKS LIKE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
THURS WITH A SHIFT IN WINDS TO MORE W TO W-NW. EXPECT LOCALIZED
CONVECTION BUT LESS COVERAGE TUES AND WED WITH AN UPTICK ON THURS
AS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. A STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW
THROUGH MID WEEK AND A RISING TREND IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD
PRODUCE TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF CLIMO THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A NEAR STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH ALL THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...AS WELL AS THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...DO  NOT THINK WE WILL GET ALL THAT UNSTABLE.
NEVERTHELESS EXPECT MORNING SHOWERS TO END FOLLOWED BY A REFIRING OF
CONVECTION LATER TODAY. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...BUT THINK THINGS WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PREDOMINATELY VFR
TODAY...WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION LATER TODAY.
FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP 850 MB TRANSPORT WINDS MOVING
THROUGH. DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
LATEST OBS SHOW 3 TO 4 FT SEAS WITH SW WINDS OF AROUND 15 KTS.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL STAY ELEVATED SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY IN A
15-20 KNOT RANGE. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GOING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE A TWELVE HOUR OR
SO WINDOW OF LOWER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES WINDS ONCE AGAIN. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH SCEC CONDITIONS A GIVEN.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MAY SEE THE GRADIENT GET PINCHED AT TIMES AS LEE SIDE
TROUGH MIGRATES CLOSER TO THE COAST OR GETS ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH...BUT OVERALL EXPECT A WEAKENING SFC FLOW THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE THROUGH MON NIGHT AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AS WINDS LIGHTEN ON
SUNDAY A LONGER PERIOD UP TO 9 SEC SE SWELL WILL BECOME DOMINANT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE
OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY ENHANCED TROUGHINESS EACH AFTN AND SEA BREEZE. EXPECT
WINDS SW 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2
AND 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FTERS IN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/RGZ/SHK


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