Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 012040
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
340 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

The cutoff low, which has persisted across the Ohio
Valley this week, has begun to slowly track to the north northeast
over the past 24 hours. As of 12z this morning, this feature was
located over east central Indiana. Ht. falls of 50-60 meters were
noted over the LP of Michigan this morning. Low amplitude ridging
was present across the intermountain west and high plains of eastern
Wyoming, eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. West of this
ridge, a closed low was located west of British Columbia with a
trough extending south to off the coast of northern California. Ht.
falls of 50 to 70 meters were noted across the pacific northwest
states this morning, and as of midday per WV imagery, this feature
was located due west of the Olympic peninsula. At the surface, high
pressure was anchored across the mid Missouri river valley while a
trough of low pressure was present from eastern Montana into
northern Colorado. Light southerly winds were present across western
and north central Nebraska this afternoon. Under partly cloudy to
clear skies, temperatures ranged from 74 at O`Neill to 81 at
Ogallala.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Upeer level low will continue to rotate over the Ohio Rvr valley
over the next 24 hours with weak ridging across the western plains.
Thermal ridge builds a little more across the Rockies with 850 mb
temps to rise a degree or two C from this afternoon to tomorrow
across the high plains. Corresponding temps at the surface will rise
from the mid 70s east to around 80 in the west today to around 80 in
the east to the mid 80s in the west for Sunday. Upper level moisture
is drifting to the east with skies becoming mostly clear.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Sunday night through Tuesday night...In the mid range
periods, precipitation chances in association with an upper level
low. An upper level low will track from Oregon into northern Utah
Sunday night. East of this trough, ridging will be forced east and a
surface trough of low pressure will deepen along the front range of
eastern Wyoming, Eastern Colorado and the Nebraska panhandle.
Southerly winds will remain in the 10 to 20 MPH range overnight and
with moisture advection into western and north central Nebraska,
mild temperatures are expected with lows in the lower to middle 50s.
A lead shortwave embedded in the upper level trough of low pressure,
will track from northern Colorado into the Western Panhandle
overnight.  Thunderstorms in association with this disturbance, will
track across the western panhandle into far northwestern Nebraska
overnight. QPF`s in association with this wave will be light given
the meager amount of moisture in the panhandle, that being said,
decided to limit pops to slight chances only. On Monday, the upper
level low will lift into the northern rockies. A pacific cold front
will move into the panhandle late in the day and will serve as the
focal point for thunderstorm initiation Monday evening. SB CAPE in
advance of the front will reach 1500 to 2000 J/KG late Monday
afternoon. The capping inversion will be fairly strong across
southwestern Nebraska Monday afternoon so convection should hold off
until the early evening hours. With initiation occurring INVOF of the
front, H5 winds oriented ssw to nne will force this activity quickly
into the sandhills and north central Nebraska Monday evening.
Activity will move quickly into the eastern forecast area overnight,
clearing the forecast area by Tuesday morning. Much drier air will
push into the western forecast area overnight into Tuesday. Even
with the cooler temperatures, dew points will fall off into the
lower 20s Tuesday afternoon in the west. This will result in
relative humidities Tuesday afternoon of 15 to 20 percent across
southwestern Nebraska. Right now, winds are forecast to be in the 10
to 20 MPH range. If this were to increase, critical fire danger and
an RFW may be needed.

Wednesday through Saturday...The upper level low will track into
southern Canada Wednesday into Wednesday night. Southwest of this
feature, a secondary shortwave will deepen across the central
Rockies Wednesday night. This feature will track east across the
central plains Thursday. The latest GFS, ECMWF as well as the GFS
Ensembles track this trough across the region with some decent mid
level lift noted on Thursday. This lift is focused over the southern
forecast area, and decided to introduce some low pops for showers
Thursday over the southern half of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

VFR conditions continue the next 24 hours. A few high clouds this
afternoon over KVTN which will slide NE overnight. Southerly winds
gusting to 15 to 20 kts this afternoon then decoupling overnight.
An increase of southerly winds again tomorrow late morning into
early afternoon.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Masek
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Masek



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