Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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356
FXUS63 KLBF 300844
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
344 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a closed low
over central Kansas with a trough extending south into northern
Mexico. Downstream of this feature, low amplitude ridging extended
from northern Georgia into the LP of Michigan. West of the closed
low, A ridge of high pressure extended from Utah into Wyoming. West
of this ridge, a trough of low pressure was present off the coast of
Washington and Oregon. At the surface, low pressure was present over
eastern Kansas. A warm front extended east of the low with a cold
front extending south of this low into eastern Texas. Across western
and north central Nebraska, light northerly and northeasterly winds
were present from the panhandle east while in the eastern panhandle,
winds were light from the west. Low clouds had developed overnight
and were impacting most of the forecast area with the exception of
the southeastern Nebraska panhandle. Temperatures as of 3 AM CDT
were in the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Today and tonight: Over the next 24 hours,
temperatures today followed by the threat for light precipitation in
the west are the main forecasting concerns. For today: Looking at
the latest NAM12, the bulk of the forecast area will hold onto an
easterly component to the wind through mid afternoon. This easterly
wind will make it more difficult to erode the deck of stratus today.
That being said, decided to scale back highs, particularly in the
eastern half of the forecast area where this a higher threat for
overcast conditions persisting through this afternoon. For tonight,
an upper level trough of low pressure will track across Nevada,
closing off over the four corners by 12z Friday. A lead disturbance
will lift northeast from northern Colorado into the Nebraska
panhandle and western sandhills overnight tonight. With the approach
of the mid level system and increased mid level warm air advection,
the threat for showers will increase in the far western forecast
area overnight tonight. Temperatures will bottom out in the mid to
upper 30s tonight, so will leave p-type as all rain for now. In
addition, the SREF is indicating a threat for patchy fog development
overnight in north central Nebraska. This fog threat has some
limited support from the MET and MAV guidance. Will pass this onto
the day shift and leave out a mention of fog for now, as forecaster
confidence in the models is not real strong attm.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Main concerns this forecast period continues to be the active
pattern brining precipitation chances through the next 7 days.
Chance of rain Friday into Saturday as an upper level closed low
pushes out across the four corners region and into the plains. There
is a possibility of a rain/snow mix across the western part of
the forecast area late Friday night into early Saturday morning as
low temperatures will hover near freezing. The rain will push out
of the area by late Saturday night...giving us a couple of dry
days for Sunday and Monday.

A deeper upper level low will push out of the Northwest U.S. and
move into the plains on Tuesday. After collaboration with
surrounding offices the consensus was that some of the models may be
underestimating the strength of the winds and decided to go with
a more robust model bringing in stronger northwest winds for
Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

MVFR ceilings are forecast to persist at KLBF and KVTN until at
least 12z. Stratus continues to move westward into the western
Sandhills. The stratus should begin to erode and move east late
tonight with VFR conditions returning by 14z.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Roberg



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