Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 232313
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
513 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Difficult forecast today, with short term models rapidly
converging on a solution of elevated convection developing
across southwest/southern Nebraska late tonight, and then lifting
north/northwestward and developing a trowal from north central
through southwest Nebraska along the I-80 corridor during the
morning Tuesday. This trowal will stay nearly stationary through
the afternoon hours and then weaken Tuesday and shift east Tuesday
night.

Precipitation type will be a concern, with all models indicating a
warm layer aloft supporting the potential for light freezing
rain or sleet east of a line from Ogallala to Ainsworth tonight
into Tuesday morning, so that has been added to the forecast.
Highest confidence for 6 inches of snow will be across north
central Nebraska, and a winter storm warning has been issued for
this area. Farther south it snow accumulation is more uncertain
and a winter weather advisory is in effect. This will be monitored
closely this evening, as the convective element will likely
dictate where the heaviest snowband sets up. Winds will increase
Tuesday afternoon, with gusts to at least 35 mph west of highway
183, where blowing snow will develop. This will be a rather wet
snow, but not so wet that at least some blowing and drifting will
take place.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

The main sensible weather concern revolves around the winter storm
where winter storm warning and winter weather advisory is in
effect; otherwise, quiet conditions look to prevail through the
remainder of the long term period. Challenges with this winter
system during this time frame include: location of best snowfall
chances, snow amounts, areal coverage and magnitude of blowing
snow, and end timing for snowfall. Models at this stage of the
event are in fair agreement with large scale pattern, however,
mesoscale details remain difficult to pin down.

Aloft, the large scale pattern will feature a longwave trough
across the western and central CONUS with a closed mid level-low
center over roughly eastern NEB/southeast SD. The mid-level low
then lifts northeastward across WI into the Upper Great Lakes
Wednesday while it weakens into an open wave in the afternoon.
BUFKIT soundings show thermal profiles indicative of all snow
Tomorrow night, so concerns for any ice are scant in that time
frame. Models are in decent agreement with then lifting the
surface low from the Lower Missouri Valley at the start of the
long term period to far eastern IA by Wednesday morning. Current
thinking is snow will continue across much of western and north
central NEB Tuesday evening then begin winding down west to east
gradually after midnight Tuesday through Wednesday early-mid
morning. Another 1-4 inches of snowfall is expected Tomorrow Night
across roughly the northeast half of the local forecast area with
the greatest amounts east of US Route 183. Winds will be gusty
overnight as the system departs away with strong cold air
advection at lower-levels. Gusts peaking as high as 35-40 mph are
expected, strongest across north central NEB Tomorrow Night. The
rest of Wednesday will be dry, however, still breezy with highs
sub-freezing, ranging from near 30 in the far south to lower and
mid 20s in the Sandhills.

Little change to the sensible weather forecast Wednesday Night and
beyond with dry and quiet weather expected. While guidance has
been fairly consistent in this time frame with a largely
amplified pattern being in place, there are some differences in
the latest guidance related to phase/location and
amplitude/strength. A broad trough and cyclonic flow will prevail
across much of the CONUS Wednesday Night into Thursday. A ridge
builds and moves onto the west coast Thursday. The upper level
ridge will then continue to build over the western CONUS into
Saturday wherein the ridge will then extend from the Pacific
offshore waters near California into the Northern High Plains. The
ridge is expected to dominate the Western CONUS in this time
period. Elsewhere, the longwave trough will slowly progress
eastward and be over the Great Lakes and the Northeast CONUS by
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 513 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

A winter storm system will track through western Nebraska late
tonight through Tuesday. Areas of fog will develop late tonight
with some light drizzle also possible. Chances for freezing rain
and sleet during Tuesday morning should transition to all snow
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to 8
AM CST /7 AM MST/ Wednesday for NEZ004>010-028-029-094.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to
8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ Wednesday for NEZ022>027-035>038-057-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...Roberg



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