Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 260011 AAA
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
511 PM PDT WED MAY 25 2016

...UPDATE FOR NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure will move across the area today, resulting in cool
weather and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for the
mountains and interior areas. Warming is expected for the end of
the week and into the weekend as the main upper low moves east,
with near normal temperatures for the weekend and early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SAT)

Overall, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the period.
At upper levels, low will move inland and eastward this
afternoon/tonight with broad cyclonic flow prevailing Thursday
through Saturday. Near the surface, moderate onshore flow will
continue with a little northerly push each evening through the
period.

Forecast-wise, the excitement levels remain rather low. In the
immediate short term, lift associated with the upper low will
continue to generate clouds and the slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms across interior sections through early this evening.
Current radar shows some activity moving southwest across Kern
county, so this possibility will need to be monitored this
afternoon. Once the low moves eastward this evening, the shower
and thunderstorm threat will diminish.

The other concern in the immediate short term will be the
potential for some Sundowner winds this evening across southern
SBA county. High-res models indicate a decent north-south pressure
gradient and some good low level winds. So with the afternoon
forecast, will issue a low-grade wind advisory through tonight.

Otherwise, with the above pattern, will expect the marine
inversion to gradually redevelop across the area as 500 mb
heights gradually increase through the period. So, the marine
layer stratus should become more organized each night, penetrating
into the coastal valleys with good dissipation each afternoon. As
for temperatures, there will be a gradual warming trend through
the period with the most noticeable warming away from the coast.
By Saturday, temperatures should be a degree or two below seasonal
normals for most areas.

.LONG TERM...(SUN-WED)

Overall, 12Z models continue to exhibit decent synoptic agreement
through the period. At upper levels, trough will linger over the
area on Sunday then a ridge will build in from the west Monday
through Wednesday. Near the surface, weak to moderate onshore flow
will continue.

Forecast-wise, nothing too significant expected through the
period. With the upper ridge building in, the marine inversion
should become stronger and more shallow with less inland
penetration of stratus each night. As for temperatures, a slight
warming trend is expected for most areas.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/0010Z...

At 2322Z...there was no marine inversion at KLAX.

Moderate confidence overall in the 00z TAFs. Periods of low clouds
with MVFR cigs are expected at most of the coastal and vly airfields
tonight and Thu morning, but the timing of the clouds for most
airfields could be off +/- an hour or two and be intermittent at
times. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail thru Thu. Generally
high confidence for the TAF at KSBA with VFR conditions expected
thru Thu, along with low level wind shear tonight due to gusty n
canyon winds in the vicinity. For KWJF and KPMD, VFR conditions will
continue thru Thu along with gusty afternoon and evening winds,
altho winds will be a bit stronger this evening.

KLAX...Moderate confidence overall in the 00z TAF. Low clouds with
MVFR cigs are expected from about 08z to 20z. However, the timing of
the clouds could be off +/- an hour or two and be intermittent at
times. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at the airfield thru
early Thu evening before MVFR cigs move back in the airfield as
early as 03Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence overall in the 00z TAF. Low clouds with
MVFR cigs are expected from about 09z to 18z. However, the timing of
the clouds could be off +/- an hour or two and be intermittent at
times. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at the airfield thru
Thu afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...25/200 pM

Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all coastal waters
beginning this afternoon. The outer waters SCA will continue
through at least mid morning on Friday, while the inner waters
will expire overnight. Confidence is 70% that another SCA will be
needed for the northern and western portion of the outer waters
Friday afternoon through the weekend with reduced confidence on
Sunday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Thursday For zones
      39-52. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday For
      zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      For zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Friday For
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION...Sirard
MARINE...Sweet
SYNOPSIS...Sukup

weather.gov/losangeles


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