Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 220623
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL EXPAND WEST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND AND A REDUCTION IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE DESERT AND THE HOTTEST VALLEY LOCATIONS STARTING WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 400 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF POINT
CONCEPTION WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MAINLY MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR DIFFICULT AND
LOW CONFIDENCE MARINE LAYER STRATUS FORECAST. WEAKENING ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS WEST. AS A RESULT...A WARMING
TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LESS MARINE LAYER STRATUS
COVERAGE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING. AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY
TO REMOVE POPS AND RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY...WARMING 3-5 DEGREES EACH DAY. MARINE LYR MAY BECOME SO
SQUASHED THAT CLOUDS GET WIPED OUT AND WE`RE LEFT WITH CLEAR
SKIES...ESPECIALLY BY THU WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...MODELS STILL ADVERTISING AN EDDY CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES OF RELIEF TO
COAST AND VALLEYS FOR THE WEEKEND BUT LIKELY LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. STILL QUITE HOT EVEN WITH THE EDDY
CIRCULATION WITH WARMER VALLEYS HIGHS CLOSE TO 100 AND INLAND
COASTAL AREAS IN THE UPPER 80S. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR LIKELY SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING.
AT THIS TIME MODELS NOT ADVERTISING ANY SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WAVES
OR MOISTURE MOVING INTO OUR AREA SO THE FORECAST REMAINS TSTM-FREE.

&&

.AVIATION...

22/0600Z.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN ALL COASTAL TAFS. MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
IN A VERY HAPHAZARD MANOR. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHC THAT TAF SITES
WITH A CIG IN THE FCST WILL NOT HAVE ONE. EQUAL CHC THAT THE CIGS
WILL BE EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
EVERYWHERE AFTER 17Z.

KLAX...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF NO CIGS TUESDAY MORNING. IF CIGS
DO ARRIVE THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHC THEY WILL BE OVC008.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
FOR A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND
16Z.

&&

.MARINE...21/900 PM.

FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
TUESDAY...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS...LOCALLY MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OCCURRING BETWEEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE PLACED IN SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

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