Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 031123
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND KICK OFF A PERIOD OF
CLEAR WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL LATER THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES. THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST
EVENINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOW SW OF SAN DIEGO. THERE ARE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS RIGHT NOW BUT THESE
SHOULD MOST BE OUT OF THE AREA BY DAWN AS THE LOW DRAGS THEM
SOUTHWARD. ASIDE FOR SOME MORNING NORTH SLOPE CLOUDS WHICH HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY...SKIES TODAY WILL BE AT WORST PARTLY
CLOUDY. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED OVER THE MTNS AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THERE HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THKNS TODAY ONLY RISES TO
546 DM SO DESPITE THE SUNNY SKIES MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND
MOSTLY IN MID 60S ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS.

RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST PACIFIC AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. OFFSHORE CANYONS WINDS EACH MORNING WILL
BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN ALL BUT THE WINDIEST RIDGETOP
LOCATIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY (A LITTLE
LESS INLAND) AND WILL BE AT SEASONAL NORMS WEDNESDAY AND THEN ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY.

MIN TEMPS AWAY FROM THE CANYON WINDS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE EACH
NIGHT AS DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
LONG RANGE MDLS DONT EXACTLY MATCH UP THROUGH THE XTND PERIOD BUT
THEY ARE NOT RADICALLY DIFFERENT. ALL FORECAST SOME DEGREE OF
RIDGING. THERE WILL BE OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
MDLS DISAGREE ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE OFFSHORE FLOW ON
SUNDAY AND ALL AGREE THAT THE SFC FLOW WILL BE ONSHORE MONDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS WITH THE WARMEST LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 80S. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY.

A LITTLE COOLER SUNDAY (OR A LITTLE MORE COOLER IF THE MORE ONSHORE
FORECAST WORKS OUT) AND THE COOLER STILL ON MONDAY. CANT RULE OUT
SOME MARINE LAYER CLOUDS MONDAY BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THEM
OUT...OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR (PARTLY CLOUDY AT
WORST) THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

03/1100Z

AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH UPPER LOW MOVING
SOUTH OF THE AREA...SHOWERS AND CIGS HAVE DISSIPATED AT ALL TAF
SITES. SO...VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THRU THE
PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THRU THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...03/230 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...AND
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR
THE SOUTHERN TWO OUTER WATERS ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH
A CHANCE OF WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS ZONE. BY WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE
SOME WEAK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR SHORE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

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