Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 301452
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
952 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY HAS CAUSED
FOR A COOL CLEAR MORNING THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE REGION AS OF
1030 AM... EXCEPT NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE READINGS IN THE
40S CAN STILL BE FOUND. FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK... ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE. DECREASED HIGHS FOR THURSDAY 1 DEGREE AREA
WIDE AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS BEFORE 00Z FOR OUR NORTHERN-MOST
COUNTIES DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

JPM3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A 1021 MB RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING.
THIS IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
TEMPERATURES AS OF 4 AM CDT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER AND 40S ELSEWHERE. RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT...FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
ARE THE PREDOMINANT CHALLENGES IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S INTO THE
40S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND APPROACHING CURRENT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. THUS...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT TODAY. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND PERHAPS THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL FILTER INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA. THESE LOW
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT/NEARLY CALM WINDS MAY RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST AND POSSIBLY A FREEZE. LATER SHIFTS WILL
CONSIDER FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE IN
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SLOWER PROGRESSION ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT
BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL AT BEST AND KEPT THUNDER
MENTION TO A MINIMUM. LONG TERM MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THIS FRONT BUT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
AT THIS POINT WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

CJC

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES AFTER 06Z AT JBR... A FEW HOURS LATER AT MEM.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







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