Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 091104

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
504 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

A progressive early winter pattern will continue over North
America through the upcoming week, leading to changeable weather
for the Midsouth.

3 AM CST surface map showed a 1040mb pressure ridge extending from
the Canadian high plains south into Texas and Oklahoma. Under fast
west-northwest flow aloft, the Arctic surface high will lift into
the Ohio Valley by Saturday morning. With few clouds and a weak
low level pressure gradient, conditions will be favorable for
strong radiational cooling tonight, particularly near the TN
River. The dry airmass should warm decently on Saturday, with
gradually strengthening return flow and limited cloud cover.

Return flow will strengthen Saturday night and Sunday, returning
modified maritime air to the Midsouth in advance of a Pacific cold
frontal passage Sunday night. Scattered light showers will occur
near the front. Heavier rain is expected to stay well north, near
more pronounced midlevel height falls over the Ohio Valley.

Another Arctic cold frontal passage appears on track for early
Wednesday. Scattered post frontal showers, may mix with some non-
accumulating light snow north of I-40 Wednesday morning. Not much
moisture will exist where thermal profiles are favorable for
frozen precip. Midlevel forcing will lift east of the area
Wednesday night, as dry Arctic air settles into the Midsouth

GFS and ECMWF depict low level return flow commencing next Friday,
ahead of a strong shortwave lifting into the mid-MS River valley.
Will need to monitor the path of this system, but at this early
time, it appears to be mainly a rain producer for the Midsouth.




12Z TAF Set

VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours. N winds of
6-8 KTS will occur through 00Z. Thereafter, speeds will diminish
to 3 KTS or less.





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