Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 020438
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1138 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT
TOO WARM. EXPECT PATCHY FOR AGAIN NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND
ALABAMA STATE LINE. OTHERWISE...LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

CURRENTLY...A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN ARKANSAS INTO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
INVOF OF THIS AXIS. SKIES ARE PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INVOF THESE FEATURES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
QUITE LOW. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR ON WED/THU ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH
EAST AND GET ABSORBED INTO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. MEANWHILE UPPER RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE COOLER SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST TO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S IN MEMPHIS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON SUBSEQUENT NIGHTS.

AS THIS WEAK UPPER LOW MEANDERS AROUND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IT MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH.
HOWEVER MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE AND WARMER THAN NORMAL.
LOOKING OUT A LITTLE FURTHER THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOT ON BOARD WITH
THIS SO PROBABLY A LITTLE EARLY TO GET OUR HOPES UP FOR SOME FALL
LIKE WEATHER.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MKL/JBR/TUP PRODUCING TEMPORARY MVFR/IFR
AND PERHAPS LIFR VISIBILITIES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN
4-7 KTS AFTER 02/15Z AND DIMINISH TO 4 KTS OR LESS AFTER 03/01Z.

CJC
&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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