Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 241726

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1126 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

Updated to add 18z Aviation Discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 545 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/


Updated for aviation discussion

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/

Models in very good agreement throughout the forecast period.
Upper level ridge over the Mid-South will move the the east today
and allow for southwest flow aloft aiding in the warm up ahead of
the next trough which will move through the area on Wednesday.
This upper level trough looks like it will persist until early
next week. The upper level trough will be reinforced by a series
of upper level waves moving around the upper low; the strongest
will be on Sunday which may be enough to trigger some
precipitation. The extended period in the upper trough will also
allow for some colder air to move in to the region after the
frontal system moves through on Wednesday.

As for the surface, a cold front moves through the Mid-South on
Wednesday. This will bring a chance of showers to the Mid-South,
however, the models suggest there is not enough moisture in the
atmosphere until later on Wednesday, so western areas of the
forecast area will stay dry on Wednesday. The key to this looks to
be the availability of Gulf moisture, this won`t happen until the
front is past Memphis. After the frontal system moves through on
Wednesday, colder temperatures--actually near normal or slight
below normal temperatures--through the weekend.


18z TAFs

VFR conditions should prevail for much of the period until lower
clouds move into sites late tonight into early Wednesday morning
producing MVFR conditions. A gradual increase in winds is expected
this afternoon with winds averaging between 8-12 kts with a few
gusts up to around 18 kts. will keep LLWS mention in TAFs for
compression issues as 2000 ft winds are expected to increase to
around 50 kts tonight.




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