Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
FXUS64 KMEG 282347 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
647 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016
Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion below.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/
DISCUSSION...Water Vapor Satellite trends this afternoon place an
upper level low near southern Minnesota with a subtle 700 mb
shortwave trough moving through the Lower Mississippi Valley this
afternoon. This has resulted in the development of isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms east of the Mississippi
River. As of 2 pm CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in
the 80s at most locations.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms resulting from a
shortwave moving across the region and daytime instability should
begin to diminish by early evening as instability begins to
diminish. Until then, a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible across the forecast area (especially across the above
mentioned areas) with damaging winds as the primary severe weather
threat and large hail as a secondary threat. Localized heavy
rainfall will also be possible.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage on Sunday is anticipated to be
isolated at best as weak upper level ridging builds in and main
triggering mechanism will be daytime instability with very little
shear. As a result, pulse type thunderstorms will be the main
convective mode. This trend is expected to continue into Memorial
Medium to long range models indicate shower and thunderstorm
coverage will increase towards mid to late week as an upper level
trough and associated cold front approach the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
each day, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Through mid-evening, expect isolated TSRA over northeast MS and
west TN to dissipate with loss of surface heating. Upper level
support for storms, in the form of a right rear entrance region
of an upper level jet core, will also lift out of the region..
For the overnight, RAP and NAM Bufr soundings paint different
pictures with respect to low level moisture and stratus formation
potential. The RAP shows boundary layer radiational fog
potential, while the NAM maintains a SCT/BKN post frontal cloud
layer near FL025. For the 00Z TAFs, have followed a compromise
solution, with VFR prevailing by 14Z-15Z.