Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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795
FXUS64 KMEG 200838
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
238 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Clouds have returned to the Midsouth as a weak trough and
associated cutoff low track along the Northern Gulf Coast. Out
West a much deeper longwave trough is deepening over the Desert
Southwest. The Gulf Coast low will continue to track to the East
gradually weakening while the Trough out West deepens resulting
in strengthening Southwest flow across the Midsouth.

Warm advection will strengthen across the Midsouth today. A light
rain shower can`t be ruled out...but most of the region should
remain dry. We will finally see some above normal temperatures
this afternoon. Thicknesses would support highs in the upper
50s...but cloud cover will likely limit highs to the upper 40s to
middle 50s. Sunday will be even warmer but still cloudy with a
chance of light rain, mainly West of the Mississippi River.

Sunday night the deep trough out West will shift over the Plains
and accelerate its movement to the East. A cold front/prefrontal
trough will race to the East approaching the Mississippi River
before sunrise Monday. A line of showers and thunderstorms will
likely accompany the front. At this point the threat of strong or
sever thunderstorms looks minimal. There is a ton of shear with
the system...featuring a 60kt LLJ and a 120+kt Upper jet...but
very little instability to balance the shear. As a result...storms
will have a hard time maintaining healthy updrafts. One half to
three quarters of an inch of rain looks likely late Sunday night
through midday Monday. South winds will be strong ahead of the
front...likely sustained between 15 and 20 mph with gusts to
25mph. Will maintain a low confidence of Strong storms in the HWO
with the main threat being wind. The post frontal airmass is
Pacific in origin, so don`t expect a dramatic cooldown. In fact,
temperatures next week will remain slightly above normal. Expect
Highs mostly in the low to middle 50s and lows in the 30s.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/06z TAFs/

Ceilings will largely remain in the 3500-4000 ft range through
tonight but temporary MVFR ceilings down to 2500 ft are possible
from time to time. A gradual lowering is expected on Saturday at
KJBR with KMEM/KMKL being less certain. A few showers are possible
Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly along and west of the
Mississippi River. South winds will continue at 8-12 kts.

Johnson

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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