Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 202352
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
552 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for aviation discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017/

The general synoptic pattern will change little over the next
week with a trough over the east and a ridge over the western
CONUS. This will result in progressive flow across the Plains and
Ohio Valley, allowing multiple shortwave troughs to affect our
Mid- South weather. The first significant wave will swing across
the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday with the second
strong trough arriving over the weekend. There won`t be much
moisture to work with during the next 7 days, keeping rain chances
very low (< 10%) during this period.

Temperatures remain slightly below normal this afternoon, with 3
PM readings in the mid 50s. Southerly winds have resumed across
the Mid-South beneath a thin deck of cirrus. Winds will remain
relatively light overnight which should allow temperatures to drop
into the 30s across most of the area tonight. Mostly sunny
conditions are anticipated on Tuesday with winds becoming
southwesterly ahead of an approaching cold front. This front is
forecast to move across the CWA during the afternoon and evening
hours, shifting winds from the north and bringing cooler
temperatures to the region. Highs on Wednesday are forecast to
remain in the mid 40s to lower 50s despite a good amount of
insolation. Temperatures are expected to again be on the cold side
Thursday morning with lows in the mid 20s to near 30 degrees.

Winds will remain light on Thursday as the surface ridge settles
over the region but will become southwesterly on Friday. This
will help warm temperatures into the 60s across much of the area,
with the warm-up persisting into Saturday. However, the next cold
front is expected to arrive on Friday. Winds above the surface are
progged to be gusty from the northwest on Saturday afternoon
which could result in some fire weather concerns should drought
conditions continue to expand across portions of the Mid-South.
This will result in cooler temperatures for the latter half of the
weekend into early next week.

Johnson

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. South winds 5 kts or less overnight increasing to 6-10 kts
Tuesday morning. KMEM...a cold front will move through Tuesday
evening with light winds becoming north and beginning to increase
toward the end of the period (22/06z).

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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