Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 262317
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
517 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN WEATHER SHOW IS TAKING PLACE 800-900 MILES TO OUR
NORTHEAST WHERE A POTENTIALLY HISTORIC NOR`EASTER/BLIZZARD IS
BEGINNING ITS ASSAULT ON THE NORTHEASTERN US. IN THE MIDSOUTH
CONDITIONS ARE MUCH MORE PALATABLE FEATURING TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S AAND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT
SHIFTS EAST TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ZONAL
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAYBE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE. THE REMAINDER OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY A SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA. WE MAY SEE A FEW SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 30S. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WILL BE
COMMON. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND BY
SATURDAY MORNING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A 25-35
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH. IF WE
ARE TO SEE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IT WOULD LIKELY BE LATE
SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...I WOULD NOT GET MY HOPES UP FOR SNOW IN A FORECAST
BEYOND JUST A FEW DAYS OUT. CHANCES ARE...GUIDANCE WILL TREND
DRIER...WARMER...OR SHIFT MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION FASTER.

30

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
DECENT SIGNAL IN MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS THAT A BRIEF CLOUD DECK
AROUND 2500 FT COULD MOVE INTO MKL AND TUP HOWEVER WESTERN
TERMINALS WILL MOST LIKELY ESCAPE THIS. WINDS WILL INCREASE NEAR
AND ABOVE 10KTS TOMORROW AT ALL TERMINALS WITH A GRADUAL TURNING
TOWARD A MORE NORTHEAST DIRECTION LATER IN THE DAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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