Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 042035
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
435 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING. A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS SUNDAY MORNING...THEN DRIFT NORTH OF
THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN OFFSHORE HIGH/INLAND TROUGH
PATTERN WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...SCT TO BROKEN COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE GENERALLY ALONG AND N OF HWY 264 EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS BUT DIMINISHED SVR THREAT. LATEST MESO MODELS
INDICATE ADDITIONAL SCT ACTIVITY ON OUTFLOW JUST SOUTH OF CURRENT
ACTIVITY...AND CONTINUED CHC POPS NRN HALF OF AREA THROUGH EVENING
WITH JUST SLGT CHC S. KEPT SLGT CHC POPS OVERNIGHT AS CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH WEAK SHRT WVS MOVING THROUGH ALOFT.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES MOVES OFF
MID ATLC COAST. MIN TEMPS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...LOW-MID 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO LOWER POPS ALL AREAS.
UPR LOW DIGGING OVER OH/TN VLY WILL RESULT IN SOME RIDGING OVER
ERN NC DURING THE DAY...WITH MAIN SHRT WV ENERGY SHIFTING W AND N
OF AREA. WEAK SFC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NRN SECTIONS DURING
MORNING...THEN STALL AND DRIFT BACK N DURING AFTN WITH INLAND
TROFFING DEVELOPING. SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING AFTN
WITH POPS 40% AND JUST SLIGHT CHC ALONG COAST. MAX TEMPS AROUND 90
INLAND WITH 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SAT...THE LONG TERM STARTS WITH A MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION. 12Z MODELS ARE A BIT
QUICKER LIFTING THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT WITH IMPROVED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE STRONGER NRN
STREAM FLOW AHEAD OF A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AND TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
MODELS PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE PIEDMONT AND
MOVE TO THE ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SAND HILLS/COASTAL PLAIN. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE FIRST BATCH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND THEN ANOTHER LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
ISO/OAJ/EWN VICINITY. SO HAVE VCTS THROUGH 06Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
ANTICIPATE REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THESE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...15KTS GUSTING ABOVE 20KTS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH PRECIP ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AS
WELL. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP BY SUNRISE. EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD BUT LOCALIZED TO AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAIN...HAVE CALM WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. PATCHY
STRATUS/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF MID ATLC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT SRN WATERS AND PAM SOUND...BUT PERSISTING CENTRAL WATERS
UNTIL SUN MORNING WITH LINGERING 6 FT SEAS. WEAK FRONT WILL DROP
INTO NRN WATERS SUN MORNING WITH WIND SHIFT TO N-NE THERE. FRONT
WILL RETURN SUN AFTN WITH SW WINDS RETURNING. TYPICAL SW WINDS
10-15 KT SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 3-4 FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DOMINATING THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT OCCASIONALLY
INCREASING UP TO 20 KT...MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WHEN GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH THERMAL HEATING INLAND...WILL BE
THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY. WAVEWATCH AND NWPS IN
AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING BUT WAVEWATCH DOES BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/LEP
MARINE...JBM/SK



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