Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 221316

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
916 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

High pressure will build in from the west through the weekend.
A dry cold front will cross the region Monday night followed by
high pressure through the middle part of next week.


As of 915 AM Saturday...Some clouds are lingering over NE
tier/OBX but as mid level short wave exits to the N shld see
msunny skies all areas this aftn. Good mixing expected today so
increased wind gusts over land a bit this aftn with most spots
seeing 20 mph or greater at times. No change to temps with a
degree or two either side of 65 expected.


As of 340 AM Saturday, high pressure should build in from the west
tonight with winds gradually dropping to 5 knots or less by Sunday
morning. This will allow temperatures to fall to the low/mid 40s
over most land areas with lower 50s along the Outer Banks.


As of 330 AM Sat...Long term period will feature mainly dry
conditions and more seasonably cool late October temperatures.
Next chance of showers does not arrive until late in the week.

Sunday...Progressive short wave trough will exit off the coast
with sfc high pres building into the deep south. Winds will back
to the WNW with building hts and in response temps will moderate
back into the upr 60s (mid 60s OBX) across the FA. Wall to wall
sunshine expected with very dry column. Another cool night Sun
night with lows dropping back into the mid/upr 40s interior to 50s
on the beaches.

Monday...A brief warmup back to above climo on Mon as flow backs
to the W in response to approaching reinforcing short wave/dry
cold front that will push through Mon night. Highs should reach
the mid/upr 70s as downsloping/diabatic flow off the mtns acts to
warm the bndry layer across E NC. Winds turn NW behind the dry
front Mon night with temps dropping back into the 40s (50s

Tuesday through Thursday...Seasonably cool conditions for this
period as cool Canadian high pres ridges into the region from the
north bringing high temps in the mid/upr 60s and lows in the 40
across the interior and 50s on the beaches.

Thursday Night into Friday...Introduced a chance of rain showers
for this period as next progressive short wave appears set to
translate across the Eastern CONUS. The 22/00Z operational GFS
appears to be a dry outlier due to lack of support from the
CMC/ECMWF, as well as its NCEP ensemble mean. Temps will warm back
into the 70s by day and 50s by night as return flow develops.


Short Term /Through 12Z Sunday/...
As of 655 AM Saturday, high confidence of VFR conditions through
this TAF cycle as wraparound cloudiness associated with mid-level
trough has moved east of the TAF sites as of 11Z. Gusty NW winds
will continue into late afternoon with gusts up to 25 knots
possible at the TAF locations.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Sat...VFR SKC is expected over the area through
middle part of next week as dry high pressure prevails across the


Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 915 AM Saturday...Although winds will remain gusty over
western rivers today think mainly below 25 kts so will drop the
SCA these waters. Adjusted waves over the ocean closer to
wavewatch as local SWAN is overdone with offshore flow showing 9
to 10 feet outer waters. For now have seas mainly in the 6 to 7
foot range offshore with local 8 ft far outer central waters.

Prev disc...NW winds gusting to around 30 knots across the
northern and central waters with 15-25 knots elsewhere. Lesser
winds being observed on the inland rivers and SCA for this area
set to expire by late morning and may be able to dropped early if
trends continue. Seas have increased a bit since last update,
running around 6 feet. Some 8-9 foot seas still possible through
mid afternoon over the outer waters. No changes to current
advisories at this time. Winds drop off late tonight but seas will
likely remain elevated through mid- morning Sunday.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Sat...NW winds will diminish on Sun with high pres
building into the deep south. The high will pass to the south of
the waters Sun night with winds becoming W ahead of next front set
to pass through Mon night. Speeds generally 10-20 kt expected
through Mon night. The W winds become N on Tuesday and could see a
brief period of SCA especially northern waters as a surge to 15-25
kt is possible. The N winds veer NE on Wednesday as high pres
builds into the Great Lakes region.


As of 345 AM Friday...Continue Coastal Flood Advisory for
soundside of Outer Banks through today. Water in sounds still
running high from all the water flowing in from the rivers and
with NW winds 15 to 25 mph, water will pile up on soundside of
the Outer Banks. Water levels will increase to around 2 feet above
normal and poss reach 3 feet in localized spots producing minor
flooding of low lying areas. Conditions should improve a bit later
this afternoon as winds start to diminish.


NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ130-
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ156-158.


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