Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 171443
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
943 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE 12Z MHX SOUNDING AROUND 0.4 INCH.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR AND WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
UNDERWAY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH FORECAST VALUES IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WED...HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM NW WHILE
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN FROM W ON ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MIN TEMPS
FOM LOW-MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO EASTERN NC
FROM THE W/NW THU AND FRI WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/MID 50S FOR THU
AND FRI. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT.

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
MODELS COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW WEAK SFC MOVING THROUGH MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TX THU NIGHT AND FRI... THEN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF
REGION SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY INTENSIFYING OFF THE SE COAST SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS REGARDING EXACT
TIMING AND INTENSITY BUT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAKER
SYSTEM WITH LESS IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA SAT...TAPERING OFF LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
SUN MAINLY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...AS LOW MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.

MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH FASTER THAN ECMWF DEVELOPING A WEAK
SFC LOW ALONG THE SE COAST. CONTINUED TO TREND WITH WPC AND ECMWF
SOLUTION...KEEPING MONDAY DRY AND STARTING POPS MONDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS EXPECTED TUE WITH WEAK LOW LIKELY
OFF THE COAST...AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STRONG
LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED PUSHING
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC WED.

HIGHS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID NEXT WEEK...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY MID 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...VFR EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRES GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM NW. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM W THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT BUT ENOUGH DRYING IN LOW
LVLS EXPECTED TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. W TO NW WINDS
10 KT OR LESS FOR TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT/VRBL TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND FRI. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AREA LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM WEDNESDAY...WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
AT 10 AM AS SEAS HAVE DROPPED TO 5 FEET AT DIAMOND BUOY WITH 2 TO
4 FEET ELSEWHERE. WINDS ARE GENERALLY WNW/NW AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NO
BIG CHANGES TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NW AS STACKED LOW REMAINS NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND REGION THU
INTO FRI...RESULTING IN CONTINUED NWLY FLOW 10-20KT WITH SEAS
2-4FT. CONTINUED TO TREND WITH WAVEWATCH LATE THU THROUGH
FRI...THINKING THAT LOCAL NWPS IS STILL SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW.

INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH FRI AND SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN
SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WINDS PEAKING AT
15-20KT. N/NE WINDS 10-15KT EARLY SAT INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING E/NE LATE SAT. FLOW BECOMES N/NW 15-20KT SUN. AT THIS
TIME WILL CAP SEAS 4-6FT...WITH HIGHER SEAS MAINLY NORTH OF
OCRACOKE. AT THIS TIME THINK SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD






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