Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 141057
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
657 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFFSHORE TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY AND SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN DISSIPATE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES DOMINANT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 650 AM MON...NO SIGNIF CHANGES PLANNED WITH SHRA/ISOLD SHRA
SKIRTING CST THIS MORNING AND ADDITIONAL WDLY SCT TO SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING INLAND LATER TODAY.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WL CONT OFFSHORE TODAY AS A SFC TROF
SHARPENS INLAND. WITH SOME LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG THE CST THIS MORN EXPECT WIDELY SCT TO SCT SHRA AND
A FEW TSRA TO DEVELOP AS JUST ABOUT ALL SHORT RANGE MDLS INDICATE
SOME QPF NEAR OR JUST OFF THE CST. LATER TODAY WITH HEATING EXPECT
WIDELY SCT TO POSS SCT TSRA ESPCLY INLAND. BETTER
FORCING/INSTABILITY AND CORRESPONDING SVR THREAT WILL REMAIN TO THE
NW TODAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN LOWER 90S INLAND
WITH UPR 80S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM MON...APPROACHING UPR TRF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL
LEAD TO DECENT SW FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH SOME INCREASE IN LIFT
LATE. WILL CONT WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHC POPS EARLY WITH CHC LATE AS
THE LIFT BEGINS TO REACH THE REGION. WILL BE A MILD/MUGGY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EARLY TUES THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH TUES NIGHT HELPING TO PUSH LOWER HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE
REGION. A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL DRAG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION TUES INTO
WED. THE RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST WILL BE SHUNTED WELL
OFFSHORE TUES THOUGH IT WILL HELP FOCUS A RICH SOUTHWESTERLY
MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TUES THROUGH WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TUES AND
MOVE INTO EASTERN NC WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS
RAMPING BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES LATE TUES INTO EARLY WED. MAINTAINED
TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES...TO LIKELY BY
TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW
DEGREES TUES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS INHIBITING MAXIMUM
INSOLATION...THOUGH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN ROUGHLY 1425
METERS. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE TUES AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING WHEN SLIGHTLY GREATER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION
AND MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT. EXPECT HEAVIEST/WIDESPREAD PRECIP
TO OCCUR TUES NIGHT WHEN LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OF AROUND 17
G/KG AND PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH OFFSHORE WED BUT HAVE CONTINUED
SLOWLY DECREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST...AS WE WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY BY 00Z THURS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1405-1410 METERS WED WHICH YIELDS
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THURS INTO THURS
NIGHT KEEPING MOST OF EASTERN NC MOSTLY DRY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...MAINLY
EAST OF HWY 17. THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT LEADING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT. SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BECOMES MORE DOMINANT SUN WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES IN MEAN SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THRU THE PD. WDLY SCT SHRA SHLD
STAY E OF TAF SITES THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY SOME WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP INLAND AS INSTAB INCREASES...HOWEVER
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A MENTION AT THIS
TIME. SCT SHRA AND TSRA MAY INCREASE A BIT LATE TONIGHT BUT TOO FAR
OUT TO INCLUDE SO CONT VFR WITH DECENT SW FLOW.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH COULD PRODUCE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TUES THROUGH WED...WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS/VSBYS TUES NIGHT.
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND THE BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM MON...NO CHANGES WITH SSW WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20
KTS LATER TODAY...THIS WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET BUILDING TO
3 TO 5 FEET...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS.

PREV DISC...GRDNT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS SFC TRF DEVELOPS INLAND WITH
HIGH PRES OFFSHORE. EXPECT SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS EARLY TO INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KTS MOST WTRS LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL CONT AT 15 TO 20
KTS TONIGHT AS GRDNT REMAINS TIGHT WITH COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE W. SEAS OF MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT EARLY WILL BUILD TO
3 TO 5 FT LATE TODAY...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. SEAS WILL
CONT AT 3 TO 5 FT TONIGHT...MAY FLIRT WITH 6 FT FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP AT 5 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUN...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
A SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. SW WINDS WILL RANGE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN ALL
WATERS BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT...10 KNOTS OR LESS..AS THE FRONT REMAINS OFFSHORE
THURS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WIND DIRECTION LATE THURS
INTO FRI...AS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS AS
EARLY AS THURS. WILL MAINTAIN A MORE EASTERLY TREND FOR WINDS
FRI. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT THURS INTO FRI. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND
00Z WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...RF/DAG
MARINE...RF/DAG







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