Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 022258
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
558 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the northwest through early
Sunday, bringing cool and dry weather. Several areas of low
pressure will affect the area Sunday night through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 555 PM Friday...The upper flow will remain zonal through
Saturday. At the surface a trough/wind shift will cross the area
this evening with the flow shifting from west to north as high
pressure builds into the area from the northwest. This will
reinforce the already cool/dry airmass in place across the region.
Thin high level cirrus clouds from a developing upper trough over
the southwest US could stream into the area late tonight,
otherwise skies will be clear. Winds will decouple inland this
evening but cold advection associated with the northerly flow will
increase winds along the coast and could penetrate the nocturnal
inversion inland which would limit low temperature potential if
mixing develops. For now will make no changes to the current low
temp forecast with readings inland in the mid 30s and upper 30s
to low 40s expected along the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...High pressure will continue to build in
from the northwest and be overhead on Sunday...bringing cool and
dry conditions through most of the weekend. An increase of clouds
as WWA develops aloft with moisture streaming in from the storm
system over western Gulf States on Saturday night. Most of Sunday
will be dry...but chance of rain increases late afternoon.

Low level thicknesses support highs in the low/mid 50s Saturday
and Sunday in the low 50s under cloudy and northerly wind flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Unsettled regime late Sunday through
Tuesday, followed by mainly dry and warm mid week.

Sunday Night...Med range guidance has come into better agreement
in fcsting an unsettled regime. The 02/00Z GFS continues a bit
drier than the CMC/ECM/NAM but has come into somewhat better
agreement. Have therefore raised pops to likely area wide Sun
night as area of decent isentropic lift develops courtesy of
strengthening of swrly LLJ and spreads rain across the entire
area. Some of the energy will go into moistening of the dry low
levels but this should be overcome by evening as entire column
saturates prior to 06Z.

Monday through Tuesday...There may be a break in the precip on
Monday as area of lift moves offshore and winds back to the north
with high trying to nose into the area from the Great Lakes
region. Think clouds will remain mostly cloudy however as already
next larger system to the west develops and moves this way.
Thicknesses/hts do rise a bit and expect temps in the 55-60 degree
range, held down a bit due to the mostly cloudy skies. Strong
compact shortwave trough will eject out of the southern plains and
move NE Monday night into Tuesday. Good model agreement with this
system bringing decent amount of rain during this time frame.
Strong omega develops by Mon night as strengthening S flow
develops on 50 kt LLJ. At the sfc, winds will be onshore and
easterly. Deep moisture combined with the strong omega will bring
widespread showers Mon night into Tue and have raised pops to
likely area wide. Mild temps expected with lows in the upper
40s/lower 50s and highs in the 60s.

Wednesday through Thursday...System will exit by Tue night into
Wed bringing end to showers. It will continue to be mild behind
this system as upr ridge amplifies across the eastern CONUS in
response to deepening trough across the Intermountain West. Temps
above climo expected with highs in the 60s and lows in the upper
40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /Through 18Z Saturday/...
As of 555 PM Friday...High confidence that VFR conditions will
prevail through the TAF period. High pressure building over the
area from the NW through Saturday will reinforce the already dry
airmass in place across eastern NC with continued mostly clear
skies. Looks like low levels will remain too dry for widespread
fog.

Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Fri...VFR with mostly clear skies expected into Sat
as high pres builds in from the NW with light NW winds through
this period. Thickening high clouds expected on Sunday, lowering
to sub VFR Sunday night with widespread rain developing. Skies may
lift to VFR on Monday though lower again Monday night into Tuesday
with low pressure and more rain expected. Winds will be generally
light through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Saturday/...
As of 555 PM Friday...Increasing winds and seas are expected
tonight into Saturday as cold advection associated with high
pressure building over the waters develops this evening. A Small
Craft Advisory remains in effect for the waters North of Cape
Lookout and for the Pamlico Sound starting this evening and
extending into Saturday afternoon. Winds are currently W/NW 5 to
15 Kt with 2 to 4 ft seas. Winds are forecast to increase to 15 to
25 KT later this evening into early Saturday, highest north of
Cape Lookout. Seas will build to 4 to 6 ft north of Lookout and 3
to 5 ft south. Winds and seas will gradually subside Saturday
afternoon.

Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Fri...Wind speed and direction is tricky the
beginning of next week due to uncertainty in expected surface
pattern with a potential low pres area and cold front affecting
the waters, though position and timing of this system is still in
question. For now will fcst increasing winds and seas to SCA Mon
night into Tue though the specifics will likely be fine tuned as
the system moves evolves and moves towards the area.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Saturday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ156.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Saturday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 5 PM EST
     Saturday for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/BM
NEAR TERM...JME/BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...JME/TL/BM


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