Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 041928
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
328 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MEANDER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES ARE CENTERED
NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND. A WEAK FRONT OR TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS BEEN INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE., CAPES AROUND 3000-3500J/KG. SHEAR REMAINS WEAK TO NON-
EXISTENT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZATION WITH STORMS WEAKENING
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER AND WILL KEEP SLT CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST.

NE FLOW IS TYPICALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER IT WILL OCCUR OR NOT AS SREF POPS ARE
RATHER LOW TONIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN 30-40 PERCENT ACROSS
EASTERN NC WITH HIGHER PROBS REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
FEEL THE NAM SOUNDING AND MOS GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE WITH THE FOG
AND WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LOWS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH SAT WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING
CENTERED TO THE NORTH. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS AOA 1.75" AND EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY WITH A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES DROP TO AROUND 1400-1410M AND EXPECT HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...WILL LEAD TO A GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PARTICULARLY NEAR THE
COAST.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGE WILL LINGER NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES SETTING OFF
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DIFFICULT TO
TIME THESE DISTURBANCES BUT WILL HAVE 20-30 PERCENT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCES CONTINUING TO BE NEAR THE
COAST. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO S/SW BY MIDWEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW DRIFTS TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND PERHAPS SOME
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
FACT THAT THE FRONT IS PROGGED INTO THE AREA IN THE DAY 7/8 TIME
FRAME...WILL HOLD POPS AT 30 PCT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...PRED VFR THROUGH THE EVENING OUTSIDE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WHERE BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. THE NAM AND
MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHETHER IT WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH SREF PROBS KEEPING
MVFR OR BELOW CIGS 30-40% OR LESS WITH HIGHEST PROBS REMAINING TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. SREF PROBS FOR MVFR OR
BELOW VSBYS IS MAINLY LESS THAN 20% SO DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE OF
MUCH CONCERN. WITH LACK OF CONFIDENCE WILL HOLD ON TO CURRENT
FORECAST OF MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS RTES ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY
POSSIBLE. IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL...THERE COULD ALSO BE
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...A WEAK TROUGH/FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING INCREASING NE
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME NE AROUND 10-15
KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AND NE AROUND 10-20 KT SATURDAY. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 1-2 FT THIS
AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT THEM TO BUILD TO 2-4 FT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, HIGHEST NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT
NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 2-3 FT SOUTH FOR SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM FRIDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES. WINDS SPEEDS WILL RUN AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH PERHAPS
A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO MORE S/SW BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
15 KNOTS OR LESS. LATEST LOCAL SWAN MODEL AND WAVEWATCH SHOWS SEAS
AS HIGH AS 5 FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...OTHERWISE SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 4
FEET AND NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK


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