Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 211914
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
214 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide offshore tonight and remain east of
the region through Friday. A cold front will move through on
Saturday. High pressure will build in Sunday and Monday then
slide offshore Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Tuesday...Upr rdg will slide E as weak nrn stream
short wave approaches. Fcst soundings show plenty of high lvl
moisture cont overnight and may also see some scu develop as
well with onshore flow. shld still a few periods of PC to MCLR
skies and this will allow temps to drop into mid/upr 40s inland
with upr 40s/around 50 cst.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Tuesday...Weak short wave will cross region late
Wed. Model trends cont to show moisture diminishing E of mtns
and expect little if any measurable rainfall across the region.
Will cont prev fcst of slight pops cstl plain where have best
chc to see some rain. Will cont to have good deal of clouds
over region however low lvl thicknesses are higher tomm and
combined with light SE to S winds shld see very mild highs in
the low to poss a few mid 70s inland with 60s beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 pm Tue...Models remain in rather good agreement for
the region through the long term, and made very little change to
current forecast. Pattern will be dry and warm through the end
of the week. Surface/upper low passing across south Florida
Wednesday night into Thursday will keep deeper moisture confined
to the south so no precip forecast. A fast-moving cold front
will move through Saturday. Models continue to show deeper
moisture lifting north of the area during the day. Kept low
chance PoPs across the north and along the Outer Banks, with
slight chance elsewhere. High temps Wednesday through Saturday
will slowly warm, going from lower/mid 70s Wednesday to
mid/upper 70s Saturday. Dry weather forecast Saturday night
through Tuesday as high pressure passes through from the west.
Cooler temps in store for Sunday, in the mid/upper 50s. After
winds become southerly once again early next weeks, temps will
rise into the lower/mid 60s Monday and mid 60s/lower 70s
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /Through Wednesday Afternoon/...
As of 1245 PM Tuesday...VFR conditions likely over the short
term. High cirrus clouds will persist over the rest of the day
with light NE/E winds 5 to 10 knots. There will be areas of
lower stratus off the coast tonight, which may advect inland as
winds shift around to the SE with high pressure moving off the
coast. There may be brief periods of ceilings sub 3k FT causing
MVFR conditions, but confidence is low into the extent of the
stratus deck. Also, there could be some patchy fog around the
region as winds will be almost calm in the early morning hours.
At this time, it appears that there will be enough cloudiness to
prevent adequate radiational cooling for widespread fog
formation, so have left this off the TAF.

Long Term /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
As of 215 pm Tue...VFR/dry through Friday, with isolated
showers Friday night into Saturday, and even an isolated
thunderstorm Saturday afternoon as a cold front passes through.
Surface winds will be from the southeast around 5 knots
Thursday, southeast 10-15 knots Friday, southwest 10-15 knots
Saturday and northwest 10-15 knots Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Wed/...
As of 215 PM Tuesday...Light winds expected thru the period as
high pres to the N slides offshore. Speeds shld remain less than
15 kts as winds veer to SE tonight then S Wed. Still have
lingering swell outer central wtrs where seas still between 5
and 6 feet at DSLN7 buoy. These seas shld cont to grad come down
and think tonight and tomm seas will be mainly 2 to 3 feet with
some 4 footers outer waters.

Long Term /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
As of 215 pm Tue...Light winds and seas forecast through
Thursday night, as high pressure off the coast continues moving
east. Winds will be generally 5-10 knots and seas 2-4 feet.
Winds and seas will increase Friday into Friday night as a fast-
moving cold front approaches from the west, moving through the
marine area Saturday. Small craft seas will develop Friday and
continue into Saturday. Winds however, are forecast no higher
than 15-20 knots. Winds and seas will diminish Sunday as high
pressure builds in from the west.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...SGK/HSA
MARINE...RD/HSA



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