Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 301404
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1004 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually push off the coast today. A warm
front will move through from the southwest Friday, followed
by a cold front early Saturday. Another warm front will lift
north through the area Monday night, followed by a cold front
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 10 am Thursday...Clouds continue to overspread the
forecast area from the west. Forecast in good shape. No changes
needed this morning.

High pressure ridging south into the region will gradually push
off the east coast today. Expect dry conditions but will see
increasing clouds as an expanding area of mid clouds across the
piedmont build into the region followed by increasing upper
level moisture ahead of a strong low pressure system pushing
east of the Mississippi River Valley. Continued NE to E winds
will bring a wide range of temps again today with highs around
60 across the OBX to the lower 70s southern sections.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...Moisture continues to increase tonight
as a robust low pressure system continues to advance toward the
region. Shower chances increase late tonight as strengthening
upper level dynamics move in from the west with showers likely
across western sections toward daybreak. Clouds and increasing
SE flow will keep temps mild tonight with lows generally in the
low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 305 AM Thursday...Wet and stormy weather Friday will be
followed by a nice weekend. Another potent system will impact
the area Monday night into Tuesday of next week.

Friday and Friday night...A potent mid-level shortwave ahead of
a surface cold front...coupled with deep moisture with
precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches at
times...will lead to a rather wet and stormy Friday across
eastern NC. The mid-level trough will take on a negative tilt
during the early part of Friday with 850 mb winds approaching 50
knots by mid-morning Friday. While wind shear and mid-level
dynamics will be impressive with this system...the primary
question will be the degree of instability that occurs. The
NAM12 indicates CAPES of around 1500 J/kg with Supercell
Composite numbers of 5-7 over the southern CWA. The GFS has
similar CAPE numbers...while the ECMWF is not as unstable. SPC
has continue to have our entire CWA in a Marginal Threat of
severe weather with hail being the primary threat with a
secondary strong wind threat. Some of the high-resolution
guidance indicates some showers in the morning...followed by
clearing and destabilization with a second round of storms in
the afternoon. It will be quite warm ahead of the front Friday
with highs 70 to 75 degrees with upper 60s along the Outer
Banks. While the threat of strong to severe convection wanes
Friday night...lingering showers will continue into early
morning Saturday before ending.

Saturday through Sunday night...Once the rain pushes offshore
early Saturday...a nice Spring weekend should follow as surface
high pressure and a mid-level ridge builds across the Carolinas.
Comfortable temperatures are expected with highs both Saturday
and Sunday in the low to mid 70s inland...although the Outer
Banks will be cooler on Sunday with mid 50s northern sections
versus mid 60s on Saturday.

Monday through Wednesday...Another potent mid-level closed low
will work its way slowly from the lower Mississippi Valley to
the Carolinas early next week. The ECMWF has the upper low
placement a bit to the north of the GFS on the latest model
cycle. Regardless...another round of potential heavy rainfall
and perhaps strong to severe thunderstorms is expected Monday
night into Tuesday. While the dynamics and low-level wind fields
are again impressive...the amount of destabilization will again
be key to the amounts and/or mode of any strong to severe storms
during this time frame. Precipitable water will again top 1.5
inches so some areas of heavy rain will be possible. Mild
temperatures will continue with highs mid 60s Outer Banks to mid
70s inland and lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 10 am Thursday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
TAF period. Clouds increase today and especially tonight ahead
of the next system but cigs expected to remain VFR until late
tonight when showers will begin to move into the area with sub-
VFR conditions possible.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 315 AM Thursday...Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions are
likely Friday into Friday night with numerous showers and a few
strong thunderstorms with heavy rainfall amounts. Conditions
improve by early Saturday and through the weekend with surface
high pressure and a mid-level ridge building across the
Carolinas. Moisture will be returning Monday in advance of the
next system with a few scattered showers and possible tstms late
in the day with some sub-VFR conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 10 am Thursday...Latest obs show northeast winds 10-20
knots. Seas running 4-5 feet, with 7 feet at Diamond Shoals
buoy. Latest marine zones in good shape. No changes made this
morning.

High pressure across the region will slowly move offshore today
with a low pressure system approaching from the west tonight.
Expect E/NE winds around 10-15kt today, becoming SE 10-20kt
tonight with gusts increasing to around 25kt across the southern
and central waters after midnight. Seas continue around 3-5ft
across the waters early this morning except up to 6ft across the
central waters. Seas have been a little slow to come down and
will extend the SCA for the central waters until 7am this
morning. Seas around 3-5ft expected today through this evening,
increasing to 4-7 ft after midnight in response to increased SE
flow.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 315 AM Thursday...Elevated seas will rapidly move up the
coast from southwest to northeast early Friday ahead of strong
oncoming system. Gusty southerly winds will push seas to as high
as 8-9 feet per local SWAN/NWPS model Friday into Friday night.
Winds veer to W/WNW Saturday with seas subsiding over most
waters by later Saturday night. After a lull early on
Sunday...strong low pressure over well east of New England will
send increased back swell energy back toward North Carolina with
the waters north of Cape Hatteras building to 6 feet or greater
Sunday afternoon. By early Monday...gusty southwest winds ahead
of the next system will lead to seas once again building from
south to north with values as high as 9-11 feet possible by
Monday afternoon.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 11 AM EDT Saturday
     for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 5 AM EDT Saturday for
     AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...HSA/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA/SK/CTC
MARINE...HSA/SK/CTC


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