Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 280253
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1050 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS TROPICAL
CYCLONE CRISTOBAL MOVES NORTHEAST WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM WED...ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS WITH READINGS INTO MID 60S
COASTAL PLAINS. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
DROP QUICKLY INLAND BUT STILL AROUND 70 COAST WITH SOME BREEZE.
LATEST GDNC INDICATES TEMPS WILL STABILIZE OVERNIGHT AND DID NOT
MAKE MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPS. SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM MAY AFFECT NRN SECTIONS LATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...CU FIELD JUST INLAND FROM CST SHLD
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING WITH MCLR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL BEGIN TO DEPART FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING ALONG THE BEACHES. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S COOLER INLAND SPOTS TO LOWER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S AND REACH
NRN TIER LATE. EXPECT MSUNNY SKIES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND WITH
INCREASING THICKNESSES AND LIGHT WRLY FLOW SHLD SEE HIGHS IN THE
90 TO 95 DGR RANGE INLAND....WITH 80S BEACHES. AS FRONT MOVES IN
LATE CANT RULE OUT ISOLD SHRA OR TSRA NRN TIER SO KEPT SMALL POP
THESE AREAS HOWEVER GIVEN LACK OF FORCING DONT EXPECT MUCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM WED...THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC THU NIGHT...LINGERING INTO EARLY SAT. BOUNDARY
STILL LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED...SO WILL CONTINUE SC POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THU NIGHT INTO FRI. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
REGIME SETS UP FRI THROUGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SE STATES AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. WILL CONTINUE
SC/LOW CHANCE POPS FRI THROUGH SUN...THOUGH OVERALL EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BETTER CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM WED...VFR SHLD DOMINATE THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT INTO THU MORN. AS BACK DOOR FRONT
APPROACHES THU AFTN COULD SEE SOME CLOUDS DEVELOP NRN TIER BUT ANY
CIGS SHLD BE VFR. LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOME PATCHY FOG
POSS MAINLY INLAND WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS ISO AND PGV...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANOTHER BOUT OF LOW STRATUS WITH FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
LOW LVL WINDS BACKING TO W-NW LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT CONVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH BETTER PRECIP CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THU/...
AS OF 1000 PM WED...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...SEAS SHLD BE PEAKING ALONG THE CST NEXT
FEW HRS AS CRISTOBAL PASSES BY. CONT WITH MAX SEAS MAINLY 8 TO 11
FT INTO THE EVENING OUTER CNTRL WTRS. N WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS EARLY WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NW AS GRDNT LOOSENS IN WAKE OF
CRISTOBAL. SEAS SHLD SUBSIDE DOWN TO 5 TO 8 FT BY LATE TONIGHT. NW
WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THU MORN WILL GRAD BECOME SW SRN TIER AS WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL DROP THRU NRN SECTIONS LATE
WITH LIGHT ENE WINDS DEVELOPING. SEAS WILL CONT TO DIMINISH THU
DROPPING BELOW 6 FT THRU THE DAY WITH OUTER CNTRL WTRS LAST TO
DROP.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM WED...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...LIKELY STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS AND
LINGERING INTO SAT. DIRECTIONS REMAIN TOUGH GIVEN PLACEMENT OF
BOUNDARY BUT EXPECT SPEEDS LESS THAN 15KT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BECOMING PRED SE/SW FRI NIGHT...AND S/SW LATE SAT AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES...WITH SEAS 2-3FT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SAT NIGHT INTO MON WITH S/SW WINDS 10-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1030 PM...HIDE TIDE HAS OCCURRED ALONG COAST THIS EVENING AND
SEAS/WAVES ON DOWNWARD TREND...THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGH SURF ADVSY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ095-103-
     104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/RF/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RF







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