Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 210710
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
310 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY
AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING, OTHERWISE EXPECTING MAINLY A DRY/WARM DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER
THE EASTERN STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY. LOCALLY, AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE THIS MORNING, WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S TODAY. MUCH OF TODAY WILL
FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AFTER MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING
AND BEFORE SOME LATE DIURNAL CLOUDS FORM WITH DEVELOPING COOL
POOL TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH WILL PUSH THRU THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY ASSOCD PRECIP WITH FROPA GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER AND WNW FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD SHOT OF CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AS A LIGHT BREEZE
PREVENTS A FURTHER DROP OFF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 AT THE COAST WITH WIND OFF WARMER WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FCST THINKING.
STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM CLOSING OFF A LOW PRES SYSTEM
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. BOTH DETERMINISTIC 20/12Z GFS/ECM
IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES ON
SFC LOW PLACEMENT OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC. ECM ADVERTISES A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW DEEPENING CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHILE GFS IS
A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE. IN EITHER CASE...COOLER PATTERN WILL MOVE
IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD. HAVE RETAINED LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE CYCLONIC CURVATURE AROUND
PARENT LOW BRINGS A BIT DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT TO THIS AREA AND MAY
BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED EVENING. HIGH
TEMPS WED AND THUR WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX T`S GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID
50S ON THE BEACHES.

BROAD NW FLOW EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VERY PLEASANT DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. BUILDING UPR RIDGE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AND TEMPS MAY CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WED/...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THRU THE 24HR TAF PERIOD. A SHORT INTERVAL OF
IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE INCOMING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND INCREASING BNDRY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT SHUD HELP DISSIPATE THE SHALLOW FOG. PRECIP GRAZING COASTAL
SECTIONS ASSOCD WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH SHUD REMAIN EAST THE TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER INTERVALS OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS
THRU THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD AS UPPER TROF APPROACHES AND ASSOCD
SFC FRONT MOVES THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG
TERM WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME
GUSTY NW WINDS ON WED BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT N TO NW FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY BUT REMAIN
LARGELY BLO 15 KTS THRU THIS EVENING. STRONG POSTFRONTAL CAA SURGE
WILL BOOST NW WINDS TO NEAR 20 KTS EARLY WED MORNING. 2-3 FT SEAS
TODAY BUILD 3-5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.


LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY. LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WED INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRONG NW 20-30
KT WINDS TO THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS LATE WED INTO
EARLY THUR. WINDS LOOK TO PEAK WED NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP SEAS INTO
THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE...AS WAVE WATCH 4 SEEMS UNDERDONE AS IS
TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE AREA
PRODUCING LONG NORTHERLY FETCH OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS.
DID NOT FCST QUITE AS HIGH AS THE NWPS OUTPUT AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH USED A HEAVILY WEIGHTED BLEND TOWARDS NWSP VS WW4.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...BTC/TL





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