Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 141027
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
527 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the Northeast coast today will push a dry cold
front through the area late today. Low pressure will pass near
the coast Friday. High pressure will build over the area this
weekend. A complex frontal system will affect the region early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 230 AM Thursday...No changes to previous thinking. Low
pressure moving across the Mid Atlantic region early this
morning is producing a warming SW flow across Eastern NC which
will continue through most of today leading to milder high
temperatures in the mid to upper 50s ahead of a dry cold front.
Skies will remain mostly clear with only patchy high clouds
expected as the front is devoid of significant moisture.
Breezy/windy conditions especially near the coast will occur
through the morning hours but should remain below wind Advisory
criteria. Winds are then forecast to diminish this afternoon as
the front crosses the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM Thursday...Very limited cold advection is expected
behind the front tonight which is basically be a wind shift to
N-NE. Skies will remain clear for most of the night with some
mid clouds developing late ahead of an approaching mid level
trough. Lows are expected to be 30-35 inland and 35-40 coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...A weak low pressure area moves across
the region Friday but expect dry conditions to continue. Weak
ridging builds into the area this weekend followed by a complex
system moves into the region early next week bringing better
chances of rain.

Friday and Friday night...Another mid level trough approaches
the region Fri and pushes across the region Fri night. Weak low
pressure develops across the Southeast in response and lifts
across or just off the NC coast Fri. Will likely see more clouds
than the previous system but the sub-cloud layer remain fairly
dry and not anticipating any precip. The low lifts NE of the
area Fri night and deepens with CAA ramping up. Highs Fri
expected in the 50s with lows around 30 well inland to upper 30s
to around 40 coast Fri night.

Saturday through Sunday...Weak ridging and sfc high pressure
build into the region this weekend keeping conditions dry. Cool
temps expected Sat with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s and
lows in the lower 30s inland to around 40 along the coast Sat
night. High pressure moves offshore Sun with increasing clouds
ahead of the next approaching shortwave. Return flow will bring
a warming trend Sun with highs expected in the mid 50s to around
60.

Sunday night through Wednesday...A better chance of rain
expected early next week as a series of shortwave troughs lift
out of the southern plains and lift across the area tapping into
Gulf moisture, however there remains significant spread among
guidance, especially with the strength and timing of the
systems, and forecast confidence remains low. 00z models have
trended a bit slower and drier but it appears the best chance
for widespread precip comes Mon into Mon night. Faster guidance
indicates precip may move in Sun night while slower guidance
suggests precip may linger into Tue night. A northern stream
trough progged to push across the region Tue night/early Wed
with high pressure building into the region Wed. Temps expected
to be above normal this period with predominant SW to W flow
across the region, cooling to near normal Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 230 AM Thursday...High confidence that VFR conditions
will prevail through the TAF period. A dry cold front will cross
the area late today with only patchy high clouds  expected with
it. Some mid clouds could develop late tonight as a mid level
shortwave approaches. Gusty SW winds to 20 kt this morning will
veer to the NW and diminish this afternoon, becoming light NE
tonight.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 315 AM Thursday...Pred VFR conditions expected through
Sunday. A shortwave trough and weak surface low pressure push
across the region Fri bringing increasing clouds but cigs
expected to remain VFR. High pressure builds back into the
region over the weekend but will see increasing clouds Sun in
advance of the next system approaching the region. Rain chances
increase late Sun night or Mon with periods of sub-VFR
conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 230 AM Thursday...A brief period of strong SW winds
reaching low end Gale force in frequent gusts will occur through
mid morning then a diminishing trend in winds is expected as a
dry cold front crosses the waters this afternoon. The
aforementioned front will cause the flow to veer to the NW this
afternoon and to the NE tonight. 25 to 35 kt winds early this
morning will veer to the NW and diminish to 15 kt this
afternoon. Winds will continue to veer and diminish tonight
becoming NE 5 to 10 kt.

Seas will peak at 7 to 10 early this morning then subside to 3-5
ft by evening and 2 to 3 ft tonight.

Guidance continues to indicate that the strong W-SW winds will
produce water levels 1-2 ft below normal through this morning for
portions of Pamlico/Neuse rivers, thus no change to the Low
Water Advisory for these areas.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...A weak area of low pressure is progged
to move across the waters Fri with NE/E winds around 10 kt
becoming SW/W around 10-20 kt, and up to 25 kt across the
central waters, Fri afternoon. Winds then become NW around
15-25 kt Fri night as the low rapidly deepens off the mid-
Atlantic and New England coast. Seas around 2-3 ft Fri morning
build back to 4-6 ft late Fri and Fri night. Winds gradually
diminish to W to NW around 10-15 kt Sat afternoon with seas
subsiding to 2-4 ft as high pressure builds into the region.
Winds diminish to 5-10 kt Sat night, then becomes S/SW around
Sun afternoon as the high moves offshore while seas subside to
1-2 ft late Sat night and Sun. The next system approaches from
the west early next week but significant uncertainty remains
with the details leading to a low confidence forecast. Do expect
winds to increase some as the system approaches and have SW
winds increasing to 10-20 kt with seas building to 3-5 ft Sun
night and Mon at this time.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Low Water Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ136-137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ130-
     131-136-137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135.
     Gale Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...JME/SK



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