Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 012359
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
655 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST THURSDAY AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND MIN
TEMPS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS WHERE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO MID-UPR 40S
WITH LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL BE STABLE OR EVEN DROP ANOTHER DEG OR 2
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE LOW LVL WAA DEVELOPES WITH TIGHTENING PRES
GRAD IN ADVANCE OF FRONT. REST OF FCST ON TRACK WITH RAIN DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 3 PM SUN...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1004MB LOW OVER WESTERN
MO/EASTERN IL WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NE US
BACK INTO TX. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE SE COAST
TONIGHT AS STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRECIP SHIELD
CURRENTLY WELL TO THE W/SW...ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND ALABAMA.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS WAA/LIFT INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA. NO SIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS POPS...WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISO TSTM POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST LATE...THOUGH EXPECT BULK OF INSTABILITY TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AND SSW WINDS
WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH LATE.
MILD TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AND WAA. LOWS EARLY
45-50 DEGREES...WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUN...SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND PUSH THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY...WHILE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSH THROUGH ENC MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THEN GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISO TSTM POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST EARLY MON BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT MENTION TO
WATERS WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED INSTABILITY. GUSTY SWLY WINDS
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS 30-40MPH. AT THIS TIME
THINK GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH COULD
BE MARGINAL ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND SOUTHERN COAST. EXPECT NON-
DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S/LOW 60S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN FALLING WITH CAA MONDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W MON
NIGHT WITH MCLR SKIES EXPECTED OVER REGION. TIGHT GRDNT WILL
PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS ALL AREAS IN THE EVENING THAT WILL CONT
THRU THE NIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 25
INLAND TO LOWER 30S OBX. FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS TUE BUT
WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER REGION NOT EVEN EXPECTING MANY CLOUDS
WITH FEATURE. HIGH PRES WILL CREST OVER THE REGION BY LATE TUE
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM UPR 30S FAR NE TO LOW/MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TUE EVENING INTO THE 25 TO 30 DGR RANGE
MOST AREA THEN LIKELY LVL OFF LATE AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND
LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. WED LOOKS MILD WITH SW FLOW AHEAD OF
NEXT COLD FRONT...LOW LVL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S NE TO UPR 50S SW.

12Z RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT MID TO
LATE WEEK. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU WITH
SOME MOISTURE LIFTING NE ALONG THE CST...ESPCLY THU. CONT PREV FCST
OF CHC POPS CST TO SLIGHT CHC INLAND THU...LOW LVL TEMPS STAY ABOVE
FREEZING WITH JUST RAIN EXPECTED. DRIER/COLDER AIR WILL THEN SPREAD
IN THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
HAVE SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT RAIN IMD CST THU EVENING THEN DRY LATE THU
NIGHT AND FRI. HIGHS THU WILL RANGE FROM MID 40S N TO AROUND 50
S...COLDEST AIR WILL CROSS FRI WITH HIGHS MAINLY 35 TO 40. THE
STRONG HIGH WILL CROSS LATER FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT THEN DRIFT S
OF REGION INTO SUNDAY AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN 40S SAT THEN 50S
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EVENING
HOURS ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL BE LOWERING. WDSPRD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
DEVELOPING 06Z-09Z IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODS OF IFR MAINLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST MON AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING. VFR EXPECTED
AFTER 18Z MONDAY.

GUSTY SWLY WINDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY WITH WIND
GUSTS 20-30KT...THIS COULD RESULT IN CROSSWIND IMPACTS FOR RUNWAY
AT EWN. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY WINDS BECOMING W/NW.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS AND OFFSHORE WITH DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. GUSTY
NW WINDS EXPECTED MON EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND MAY SEE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
THU WITH SCT SHRA. DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH
VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY N WINDS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THU AND CONT INTO
EARLY FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 3 PM SUN...LATEST OBS SHOW SE/W WINDS 5-10KT AND SEAS 2-3FT
ACROSS THE WATERS. LOCALLY STILL AROUND 5FT AT BUOY 41025 WITH
WATERS TEMPS AROUND 71 DEGREES. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE
OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SSW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
PAMLICO SOUND AND 15-25KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND ALBEMARLE
SOUND. LOCAL SWAN AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS
BUILDING 8-13FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET...AND 4-9FT NORTH BY 12Z. SEAS
WILL PEAK MONDAY 9-15FT. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
AHEAD OF AND THEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING WNW.

CURRENT HEADLINES IN PLACE...GALE WARNINGS FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND
AND COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET DEVELOPING TONIGHT...AND
SCA FOR ALBEMARLE SOUND AND NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVERS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THINK THE COLDER WATER TEMPS
WILL LIMIT MIXING OF SSW FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS
INITIALLY OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THERE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

PLEASE SEE COASTAL FLOOD/TIDE SECTION BELOW FOR POTENTIAL MINIMAL
IMPACTS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...STRONG SCA TO GALE FORCE WINDS MON EVENING AS
CAA AND TIGHT GRDNT PRODUCE NW WINDS 25 TO 35 KTS. AS CAA WANES AND
HIGH BUILDS CLOSER LATER MON NIGHT EXPECT WINDS TO GRAD DIMINISH TO
20 TO 25 KTS. SEAS WILL CONT AT 7 TO 10 FT OUTER WTRS MUCH OF MON
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY TUE AS THE HIGH BUILDS QUICKLY TO
THE CST. EXPECT SPEEDS TO DROP AOB 10 KTS LATER TUE WITH SEAS
DROPPING BELOW 6 FT THRU THE AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE EASTERN NC WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHIFTING BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATER TUE NIGHT THRU WED. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS LATE WED NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FT THU
AFTN THEN BUILD FURTHER TO 8 TO 10 FT OUTER WTRS THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 3 PM SUN...STRONG SSW WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND IT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR SOUNDSIDE AREAS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO
SOUND...MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY. MINOR LOW WATER WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN
PAMLICO SOUND AND RIVERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-
     154-156-158.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD/JBM
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JBM/RF
MARINE...CQD/RF/JBM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CQD




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