Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 270812
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
312 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK 1014MB SFC LOW
OVER WESTERN NC WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING AND SUPPORT...THOUGH MOISTURE STILL LOOKS LIMITED.
WILL MAINTAIN SC/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND OUTER BANKS LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS ABOUT
50-55 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...SHORTWAVE AND FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE
COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCE COULD
LINGER ALONG THE COAST EARLY...WITH SKIES THEN CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST. COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO -5/-8C. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
20S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROF PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW FRIDAY. DESPITE SUNNY
SKIES, HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 40S. WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WIND, EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S BEACHES.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS
SATURDAY, THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 60S SUNDAY AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 ON MONDAY. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SUPPRESSES THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND PROPELS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THE SFC BNDRY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT
SO WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. LONGER
RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT EITHER PUSHES BACK
NORTH OR DISSIPATES DURING MIDWEEK WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
TO THE AREA UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM
MVFR/VFR. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT
WITH CALM WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP PGV/ISO/OAJ MVFR THOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD FOR IFR
ESP AT PGV THIS MORNING. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BURN OFF
BTWN 12-14Z WITH PRED VFR. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE AT TAFS
AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND PASSES OFFSHORE
DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL
BE INCREASING AS SFC DEW POINTS RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW W/NW WINDS 5-15KT...WITH SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING...NORTH OF OCRACOKE 5-8FT AND SOUTH OF
OCRACOKE 3-5FT. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS THROUGH THE DAY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A WEAK FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS BECOMING NWLY BEHIND IT THIS AFTERNOON.
W/SW FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMING NWLY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NWLY
WINDS REMAINING GUSTY AT 15-25KT...AND SEAS 5-8FT. SCA CONTINUES
FOR THE WATERS TODAY...AND PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT. SCA FOR
ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL BE MARGINAL BUT COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO
25KT...WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH QUICKLY
(AND SEAS SUBSIDE) DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STRONG
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST FROM THE NW. WINDS SHIFT
W/SW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SATURDAY AND 15 TO 20 KT
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE. WEST WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AS A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/CQD






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