Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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206
FXUS62 KMLB 110059
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
800 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...NEAR RECORD LOWS FORECAST OVERNIGHT...
...FREEZE WARNING NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES 3AM-9AM THU MORNING...
...FROST ADVISORY FOR REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA 3AM-9AM THU
MORNING...

UPDATED ZONES AND COASTAL WATERS FORECASTS TO REMOVE EXPIRED HEADLINES

CURRENT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOPS SHOWS SOME CIRRUS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEPARTING 250MB JET MAX MOVING EAST AND AWAY FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA. MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES BY LATE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP QUICKLY FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH MID/LATE
EVENING. LOWEST LAYER(S) DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ALLOWS WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT TO CALM. 18Z GUIDANCE A DEGREE OFF FORECAST MINS.
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. FRESHEN WORDING.

.AVIATION...VFR.

.MARINE...BUOY 009 WAS RECORDING WEST WIND 21 TO 27 KNOTS AND 6 FOOT
SEAS. CONTINUE EXERCISE CAUTION OUT TO 20NM AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
BEYOND 20NM.

.CLIMATE...RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY, 11-FEB BELOW:

            LO-MIN
DAB 11-FEB  30 1971
MCO 11-FEB  29 1947
MLB 11-FEB  32 1973
VRB 11-FEB  35 1974

PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED 300 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016


 CURRENT-TONIGHT...COOL/BREEZY OVER MUCH OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY
DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS UPPER JET SLOWLY EXITS THE AREA
LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GOMEX WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD
TONIGHT WITH CENTER NEAR THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO
CONTINUE TO CLEAR WITH WNW WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. THE VERY COOL/DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET TO DROP
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.

WILL HOIST A FREEZE WARNING FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA
COUNTIES. WITH THIS WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29 AND 32
DEGREES FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...OVERNIGHT MINS EXPECTED IN THE L-M30S THROUGHOUT ECFL.
BARRIER ISLANDS MAY STAY A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THESE NUMBERS.
THE WARMEST AREAS METRO ORLANDO AND IMMEDIATE ST. LUCIE/MARTIN
COASTS WILL PROBABLY REALIZE AROUND U30S. WILL ALSO ISSUE A FROST
ADVISORY FOR AREAS OF FROST SOUTHWARD FROM THE FREEZE WARNING ACROSS
THE COVERAGE WARNING AREA.

THU...COLD START TO THE MORNING WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
AROUND AND AREAS OF FROST. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL MANAGE BACK INTO THE L60S
PERHAPS A FEW M60S AROUND.CLIMATE...RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY, 11-FEB BELOW:


THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...SFC HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT SOUTH TWD OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY LATE THU NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 40 FOR OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND
INLAND SECTIONS OF THE TREASURE COAST. LIGHT SW FLOW NORTH OF THE
RIDGE MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS...BUT STILL IN THE 40S FOR METRO
ORLANDO AND VOLUSIA COUNTY. SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR OKEECHOBEE
AND MARTIN COUNTIES FRI WITH A WARMER WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLOSET TO
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LWR-MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SAT-TUE... PROGRESSIVE WX
PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A 140-160KT JET STREAK OVER THE
CENTRAL/WRN PAC PLOWS ITS WAY INTO THE ERN PAC/WRN CONUS. TROFFING
PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS EARLY SAT WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE NW
ATLC OVER THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND TROF THAT WILL FORM
OVER THE UPR MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION BY DAYBREAK MON AS THE PAC
JET PUSHES ITS THE ASCENDING LEFT EXIT QUAD ACRS THE CENTRAL CONUS.

BACK DOOR FRONT WITH ATTENDANT NRLY WIND SURGE WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL FL ON SUN BUT WILL STALL AND WASH OUT LATE SUN NIGHT AS HI
PRES OVER THE ERN SEABOARD BUILDS OFFSHORE AND WINDS VEER TO THE
E/SE. WEAK CAA SAT/SUN AS WINDS VEER FROM N/NW TO NE...BUT LESS THAN
10F BLO AVG. DEEPENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ERODE THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION THRU THE H100-H85 LYR AND MAY ALLOW A FEW COASTAL SHRAS TO
DVLP SHOWERS SUN NIGHT. SHRA CHCS INCRS AND MAY SPREAD INLAND MONDAY
AS WINDS VEER MORE TO E OR SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE
10/00Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS CONT IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A FROPA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT ARE LEANING MORE TOWARD THIS OCCURRING DURING THE
DAY TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BREEZY WNW WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET AND
FALL TO LIGHT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE GOMEX TO ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24HRS
RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. LIGHT NW MORNING WINDS THU BECOMING
L/V INTERIOR AND LIGHT NERLY SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-THU...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE
OFFSHORE THROUGH 09Z/4AM THU. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GOMEX
WILL BUILD EASTWARD TO ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT
24HRS. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT BECOMING
MORE NWRLY INTO EARLY ON THU. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 10
KTS FROM MID TO LATE THU AFTERNOON. SEAS 3-5 FT NEAR SHORE AND 5-8
FT OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD TO 3-4 FT
BY DAYBREAK THU MORNING NEAR SHORE AND 5 FT OFFSHORE...CONTINUING TO
SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4 FT OFFSHORE BY LATE THU AFTN.

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO S FL INTO LATE WEEK WITH INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SE OFF THE SE ATLC COAST. SW/W FLOW WILL INCREASE INITIALLY
NORTH OF THE VOL-BREVARD LINE ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET FROM THE WEST TO 15-20 KNOTS FRI NIGHT. HIGHEST SEAS
UP TO 5 FT ACROSS THE WELL OFFSHORE WATERS.

SAT-MON...A DRY FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS SAT
INCREASING THE NW/N WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS. FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NE
SAT NIGHT AND ONSHORE SUNDAY TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS. VEERING WINDS TO SE MONDAY SHOULD
WEAKEN SOME WITH AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SEAS 4-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...GUSTY W/WNW WINDS
WILL FALL TO LIGHT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GOMEX. LOW MIN RH`S AREAWIDE RANGE
FROM THE 20S TO L30S WITH VERY DRY/COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. FREEZE
WARNING FOR NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU
MORNING WITH AREAS OF FROST FORECAST. SOUTHWARD FROM HERE A FROST
ADVISORY WILL BE IN PLACE...AGAIN WITH AREAS OF FROST FORECAST.

THU...POOR TO FAIR DISPERSION AS A HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL
FL...ALLOWING TRANSPORT WINDS TO DIMINISH WHILE REDUCING MIXING
HEIGHTS TO LESS THAN 3KFT. OVERALL FIRE THREAT WILL REMAIN
LOW...HOWEVER...AS ERC VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE L/M
TEENS. DIMINISHING WINDS WILL REDUCE OVERALL FIRE THREAT.

FRI...MIN RHS INTO THE MID 30S AND GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL CAUSE A FIRE WX SENSITIVE DAY...BUT ERCS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW WITH NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY, 11-FEB BELOW:

            LO-MIN
DAB 11-FEB  30 1971
MCO 11-FEB  29 1947
MLB 11-FEB  32 1973
VRB 11-FEB  35 1974

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  33  61  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  37  64  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  33  63  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  34  63  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  35  64  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  35  63  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  39  64  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  37  64  42  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INDIAN RIVER-
     MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ST.
     LUCIE.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
FORECASTS...WIMMER



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