Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 030928
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
528 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...WARM AGAIN TODAY WITH SOME STRONG STORMS...

TODAY-TONIGHT...LOCAL ATMOSPHERE EAGER TO PROVE ITSELF LAST EVENING
AND WELL THRU THE OVERNIGHT. THE VIGOROUS SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
FOUND SATISFACTION IN AN EARLY EVENING MERGER OVER THE INTERIOR
WHICH BECAME QUITE PRODUCTIVE. RESULTING ENHANCED VERTICAL
DEVLOPMENT WAS ABLE TO TAP THE STEERING FLOW THAT HAD VEERED TO THE
SW WHICH ENABLED CONVECTION TO TREK BACK TOWARD THE EAST
COAST...ESPECIALLY FOR BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. LOCAL RAIN
TOTALS ESTIMATED 3-4 INCHES IN SPOTS...EVEN IN PARTS OF SOUTH
BREAVRD OVERNIGHT. SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER S FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AND SEEM TO BE PICKING UP A NE PUSH. SO...THIS AREA
WAS NEVER REALLY ABLE TO DIURNALLY RESET AS INFLUENCED BY
INCREASED MOISTURE...YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...AND AN IMPULSE
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LIKELY NEED TO ADD-IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR MORNING COMMUTE AS WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT
EVOLVES.

SE U.S. PREPARING TO RECEIVE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AS UPPER
RIDGING PUSHES N OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ENSUE AN ENERGIZED TWO
DAYS FOR THE PNSLA AS THE ADVERTISED FRONT WILL MAKE ITS MOVE. LOW-
LVL FLOW IS VEERED SW WHICH IS TYPICALLY A WARM PATTERN FOR ECFL.
MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S...SO WARM ONCE
AGAIN. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF DAILY CONVECTION WILL DETERMINE
THE EXTENT OF THE HEATING. MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS INDICATED...
BUT PARTIAL THINNING WILL WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO QUICKLY RISE. EXPECT
STORMS TO FAVOR INLAND SECTIONS AND THE LOWER TREASURE COAST
FIRST...THEN FOCUS MORE TOWARD LOCATIONS EAST OF ORLANDO LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS APT TO BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...
ESPECIALLY THOSE WHO ARE ABLE TO FEED ON THE BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS
ALONG AND BEHIND THE ECSB. ECSB WILL NOT MAKE AS MUCH INLAND
PENETRATION HOWEVER. AREA HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC MARGINAL RISK.
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS NEAR 3-4 INCHES AGAIN. THEN...THE
STRONG FRONT ADVANCES THRU N PNSLA TONIGHT KEEPING ASSOCIATED STORMS
IN THE FORECAST AIDED BY THE PLUNGING UPPER S/W AND TROUGH WITH
INCREASED MID/UPPER LVL WIND FLOW.

WED...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLC SEABOARD WILL
PUSH A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS PRECEDING THE FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TIME OF FRONTAL PSG...WHICH WL OCCUR FROM
MID DAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FROM N-S. SOME OF THE FAST MOVING
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRINGING GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND HAIL. REMAINING BREEZY AND TURNING COOLER WED EVENING
WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO L60S BY EARLY
THU.

LATE WEEK...COOL AND DRY NW FLOW ACROSS THE SE STATES BEHIND A
DEEPENING CYCLONE ALONG THE MID ATLC SEABOARD WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY COOL EVENINGS THU AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE
50S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS AND HIGHS RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 80S.
NO RAIN IS FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

EXTENDED...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CONUS BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE
CENTRAL US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WL LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH A
DRY FORECAST WITH SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC IS SHOWN INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL WILL LIMIT RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH
NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...SPOTTY SHRA ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS SITES
THIS MORNING...ESP KVRB AND KMLB...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CONVECTION WITH THE DAY. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR VCTS 18Z-00Z INLAND
SITES BUT FOCUS BACK TOWARD COASTAL SITES BEYOND 21Z. TEMPO 2SM
+TSRA LIKELY NEEDED.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WED WILL RUN 10-15 KNOTS AND DRIVE SEAS 3-4 FEET AND LOCALLY UP TO
5 FEET WELL-OFFSHORE. ECSB WILL FORM BUT REMAIN CLOSE TO THE
COAST. OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SEAS AROUND 3-4 FT WED WITH HIGHER SEAS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE ESP
BEHIND THE PSG OF THE COLD FRONT WED AFTN. HEADLINES WL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS BY WED AND INTO THU BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STRONG FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH
LARGELY HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VCTY OF THE WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  70  84  58 /  50  40  70  10
MCO  89  71  82  61 /  40  30  70  20
MLB  89  71  85  61 /  50  30  70  20
VRB  90  72  87  62 /  50  40  70  30
LEE  87  72  81  60 /  40  40  70  10
SFB  88  72  85  62 /  40  30  70  10
ORL  88  71  84  64 /  40  30  70  10
FPR  90  69  88  62 /  50  40  70  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....JP


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