Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 281330
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM KXMR AND KTBW CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DRY
AND STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE
AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHWARD WITH TIME...ENTERING INTO AND JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION LATER TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS AREA WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTING ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY INTO ST. LUCIE
AND MARTIN COUNTIES FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED
POPS SLIGHTLY TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THESE COUNTIES WHILE FARTHER
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTIONABLE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FROM THE ORLANDO AREA NORTHWARD. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ALONG THE COAST RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND LOW TO MID 90S FORECAST OVER
THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED. ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
OCCUR SOUTH OF KMCO INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS OKEECHOBEE...ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PRODUCE TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS. MAY NEED TO ADD IN VCTS/TEMPO
GROUPS FOR FPR/SUA IN NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.


&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41009 VERIFYING LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH SWELLS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SEAS UP TO 6-7 FEET
OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY UP TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS INTO
THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE E/SE AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. SWELLS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SUBSIDE
REMAINING UP TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE BY LATE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OFFSHORE AND WILL ADD
THEM FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST FOR THE
LINGERING LARGE SWELLS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/PENDERGRAST






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