Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 030409 RRA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
953 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE SEA FOG/STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN LURKING ALONG THE
COAST MOST OF THE DAY HAS OOZED BACK INTO THE COAST THIS EVENING
FROM FORT PIERCE NORTHWARDS. FOG IS JUST REACHING MOST OF THE
COASTAL TAF SITES...THOUGH CAMERAS HAVE SHOWN SOME DENSE FOG
RIGHT ALONG THE BEACH STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE WIND
COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FOG INLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING WITH LOCALLY DENSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE INTERIOR AND FOG IS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING.
SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNS LIGHT EASTERLY OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGER WINDS 5-
10KTS FROM OSCEOLA/BREVARD SOUTH AND NEARLY CALM FURTHER NORTH JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT SURFACE FLOW FROM DECOUPLING AND BECOMING CALM OR NEARLY SO
AS WE`RE ALREADY SEEING AT MANY LOCATIONS INLAND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALSO REMAINS HIGH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...THOUGH THERE
IS SOME PASSING CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE ADVECTION FOG
ALONG THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE INTERIOR LATE
TONIGHT...EVEN IF IT DOESN`T...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT.

GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...WILL BE LOOKING BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ALONG THE VOLUSIA-BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER COAST. FURTHER
EXPANSION MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT IF ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPS AS
EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 6OS WITH A FEW UPPER 60S/LOW
70S ALONG THE ST LUCIE AND MARTIN COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION... FOG ALREADY AT...OR JUST EAST OF...COASTAL TAF SITES
FROM KOMN-KFPR WITH TEMPO LIFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS AS BANK MOVES IN
THROUGH 04Z BECOMING PREVAILING THEREAFTER THROUGH 13Z/14Z. INLAND
SITES WILL SEE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 04Z WITH PREVAILING
LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z EXPECTED...LIFTING AFTER 14Z. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A PERIOD BETWEEN 13Z-15Z TOMORROW WITH TEMPO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BEFORE ALL AREAS BECOMING VFR AFTER 15Z. AFTN CU
DEVELOPMENT MAY BRING OCCASIONAL CIGS FL035-050.

&&

.MARINE...DENSE SEA FOG WILL REMAIN A NAVIGATIONAL HAZARD TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF ST LUCIE INLET.
WILL ALLOW ONGOING MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.

OTHERWISE...WILL SEE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW 5-10KTS VEERING MORE
EASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 10-15KTS
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. SEAS 3-5FT
IN A PERSISTENT MODERATE SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  76  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  64  82  63  86 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  63  77  65  83 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  66  79  65  83 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  64  79  63  85 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  62  79  62  85 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  64  80  63  86 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  66  79  64  83 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA
     COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN
     BREVARD COUNTY.

AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

MOSES/BLOTTMAN



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