Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 041403
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1000 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...ANLYS OF SFC METARS/VIS IMAGERY SHOWS THE SFC-1KM RIDGE
AXIS RUNNING WNW FROM ABOUT KSUA TO NORTH OF KOBE TO KTPA SSW-SW
WINDS COVER ALL BUT THE SRN 3 COS...WHERE FLOW IS LIGHT. MORNING
RAOBS INDICATE HIGHER MEAN PWATS LOCALLY...ABOUT 2.0" WITH 1.9" AT
TBW/MFL. MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE NOTED AT KJAX (2.3") CLOSER TO THE
DEPARTING WEAK SFC LOW WHICH HAD BEEN ACROSS NORTH CTRL FL THIS TIME
MONDAY. LOOKING ALOFT...THE FL PENINSULA LIES TO THE EAST OF A H50
COL/DEFORMATION ZONE...WHICH HAS BEEN DRIFTING WWD ALLOWING MID LVL
RIDGE AXIS TO NUDGE WWD AND INTO THE COAST. N-NNE H25 PATTERN LOOKS
NEUTRAL W/R/T ANY PSBL WEAK CONTRIBUTION TO UVM/FORCING.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...MOS GUIDANCE AND MESOSCALE MODEL OUTPUT FAVOR
THE NRN CWA FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THE MESO MODELS ARE
SOMEWHAT ANEMIC IN OVERALL QPF AND COVERAGE OF HIGHER DBZ CELLS.
WITH THE MID/UPPER PATTERN NEUTRAL TO MARGINALLY NEGATIVE FOR WEAK
FORCING...WOULD EXPECT NEAR TO SLGTLY BELOW NORMAL COVERAGE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION.  WCSB MAY BE A BIT MORE MORE ACTIVE (AS IT IS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY) WITH LESS INITIAL ACTION ALONG ECSB. WE MAY
HAVE TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL BDRY INTERACTIONS (SEA/LAKE/OUTFLOW)
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TO SEE SIG COVERAGE OVER THE ERN SIDE OF THE
PENINSULA. ALL IN ALL...DON`T SEE MUCH TO ARGUE WITH THE CURRENT
POP DISTRIBUTION OF 30 S-SE/40 N-NW.

&&

.AVIATION...BEST CHANCE FOR TS TODAY NORTH OF ISM-TIX...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CURRENT POPS...HAVING TEMPO TS FOR THE NORTH/INTERIOR
AERODROMES MAY TURN OUT TO BE A BIT PESSIMISTIC. TIMING LOOKS OK
WITH ACTIVITY HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE AFTN. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND
VIS SAT TRENDS TO SEE IF KEEPING THE TEMPS GROUPS IN FOR THE 18Z
PACKAGE WILL BE WARRANTED.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT BUOY AND C-MAN OBS INDICATE S-SW FLOW OF AROUND
10-12KT WITH 1-2FT SEAS NEAR SHORE AND 2-3FT WELL AWAY FROM THE
COAST. OTHER THAN REMOVING SMALL AREA OF 3-4FT SEAS THROUGH MID
MORNING WELL OFFSHORE VOLUSIA...FCST/GRIDS LOOK FINE.

FORECASTS/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WX...LASCODY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

TONIGHT...SOME EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS OSCEOLA/
SE ORANGE AND NRN BREVARD COUNTIES WITH LATE DAY BDRY INTERACTIONS.
WILL KEEP A LOW SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THESE AREAS SE TWD
THE TREASURE COAST INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SKIES TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

WED-THU...ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION INTO MID WEEK. A MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND INCREASING IN
COVERAGE WITH ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OVER THE INTERIOR. HAVE POPS
RANGING AROUND 30-40 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST AND 40-50 PERCENT
INLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT THAT MAY LEAD
TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY WEAK W/SW
STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR TO
MOVE BACK TOWARD THE COAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION
DIMINISHES.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES
ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRI-MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH SHIFTING FROM
THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO LATE WEEK/EARLY
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE HELPS DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC THAT LIFTS N/NE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH TRAILING
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND.
THIS BOUNDARY AND LINGERING U/L TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN COAST WILL
SHIFT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWARD AND LEAD TO A DEEPER OFFSHORE
FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL. LOW LEVEL W/SW WINDS SHOULD BE JUST WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM EACH AFT...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED WITH
LITTLE INLAND MOVEMENT.

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFT AND PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE REGION.
ANY STORMS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT INTERACT WHERE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS WILL LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOW 90S MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...LOWERED SHRA/TSRA TO PROB30 GROUPS FOR INTERIOR
TERMINALS WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE CHC CATEGORY EXPECTED THIS AFTN.
EXPECT ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN TO STAY
MAINLY WEST OF TERMINALS FROM KMLB-KSUA AS E COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT PAST 00Z.

&&

.MARINE... MORNING WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL BE AROUND
15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3-4 FT SO WILL LOWER SCEC HEADLINES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO 8-12 KNOTS THIS AFTN BUT SHOULD INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT
TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL SLOWLY DROP AND AVERAGE 2 FT NEARSHORE TO
3 FT OFFSHORE LATE.

WED-SAT...RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
BY MID WEEK BEFORE IT SHIFTS BACK SOUTHWARD FRI-SAT. S/SE WINDS
BECOME S/SW BY LATE WEEK WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET. A RELATIVELY
WEAK W/SW STEERING FLOW WILL BE PRESENT EACH AFT WITH A FEW STRONGER
STORMS POTENTIALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE EACH AFT/EARLY EVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  73  91  74 /  40  20  30  20
MCO  90  74  93  75 /  40  20  40  30
MLB  90  74  89  76 /  30  20  40  20
VRB  89  73  90  74 /  20  20  40  20
LEE  90  75  92  77 /  40  10  40  20
SFB  90  74  93  75 /  40  20  40  30
ORL  90  76  93  76 /  40  20  40  30
FPR  90  72  90  74 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$


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