Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 271934
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
234 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT-FRI...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL DRY AIR WAS PROGRESSING SWD
ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD CLEAR TO SOUTHERNMOST FL BY SUNSET.
ADT`L COOLING OF AIRMASS FROM THIS FEATURE WL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS TONIGHT THAN WED NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR 30S WL OCCUR OVER TRADITIONALLY COOLER
INLAND AREAS WITH AROUND 40 TO 45 ALONG THE INTRACOASTAL AND
BEACHES. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE COMPLETELY AND THIS WL
KEEP THE LOWEST TEMPS FROM OCCURRING. WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30 WL BE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY AROUND DAYBREAK IN THE
COLDER LOCATIONS.

FRI...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS WITH A NICE REBOUND OF TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 60S AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE. OTHERWISE NO SIG WEATHER TO
HINDER OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

SAT-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL VEER WINDS TO A MORE ONSHORE
DIRECTION. THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY THE DRY AND COOLER
AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S SAT AND AROUND THE MID 70S SUN. MAY BEGIN TO SEE ISO
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS AND MOVE ONSHORE
ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT MOS POPS REMAIN QUITE LOW SO WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.

MON-THU...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BE REINFORCED BY STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN ONSHORE FLOW WITH DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AS
ISO ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE. THE ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC GUSTS NR 20KT WL ABATE TO MORE STEADY WIND AROUND 8-10KT AFT
23Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS NEXT 24H WITH NO CIGS FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-FRI...WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS HIS AFT AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD COUNTERING THE GULFSTREAM CURRENT WL CREATE
CHOPPY SEAS. A CONTINUATION OF THE SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS
WELL AS NEARSHORE SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET INTO FRI. FETCH
LIMITED CONDS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE SPACE COAST AND VOLUSIA CTY
WATERS WL REDUCE SEA HGHT. DEVELOPMENT OF ONSHORE WINDS FRI WL
KEEP A CHOPPY SEA STATE AND HEADLINES FOR WIND AND SEAS WL
CONTINUE DURING THE DAY.

SAT-TUE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS WEEKEND AND THEN BECOMES REINFORCED BY STRONGER HIGH MOVING
TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS DECREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS AND VEER TO THE NORTHEAST SAT AND THEN EAST ON SUN.
AS GRADIENT STRENGTHENS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ONSHORE WINDS
INCREASE UP 15-20 KNOTS. WAVE HEIGHTS INTO THE WEEKEND DECREASE TO
5 FEET OR LESS BUT THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE UP TO 6-7 FEET OFFSHORE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ELEVATED ONSHORE WINDS AND LONG EASTERLY
FETCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  41  62  45  68 /   0  10   0   0
MCO  41  63  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  42  65  48  70 /   0  10   0   0
VRB  44  67  50  73 /   0  10  10   0
LEE  38  61  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  40  62  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  42  63  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  46  67  50  72 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....WEITLICH




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