Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
FXUS62 KMLB 301336
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
935 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016
Today...Weak frontal boundary extending from northeast Florida
through the Big Bend region into the Gulf of Mexico will only move a
little to the east today, so the real dry air behind it won`t reach
east central Florida. The highest precipitable water values will be
in the south though as some drier air aloft has filtered in over the
The morning sounding at Tampa showed precipitable water 1.72 inches
with still cool temps aloft (500mb -8C). Southwest steering flow
was still around 15 knots but should decrease slightly through the
day. The GFS shows decent divergence aloft during the afternoon
with 500 mb temps cooling a degree or so.
The weakening frontal trough approaching will cause surface winds to
diminish so a sea breeze will develop and provide added lift over
the east side of the peninsula.
West coast sea breeze storms will push steadily inland this
afternoon, though probably not quite as fast as yesterday.
Additionally, there was a weak pre frontal convergence line from
north of Tampa to Lake George early this morning that may provide
additional focus for storms as they increase in coverage/intensity
while traversing the peninsula. The HRRR model has been showing an
increase in lightning and wind gusts near the east coast as
convection and boundaries moving across the peninsula interact with
the east coast sea breeze.
So several ingredients are coming into place for an active
afternoon. We have already outlined the potential for strong storms
in the Hazardous Weather Outlook along with a slight chance for a
severe storm or two. Little change to the previous products are
Scattered storms will again spread west to east across the peninsula
again while increasing in coverage/intensity. Timing looks a little
later than yesterday. A few of the storms will again produce strong
wind gusts over 35 knots and frequent lighting strikes. The east
coast sea breeze will likely result in the strongest storms being at
the coastal terminals during the late afternoon and early evening.
Today...The pressure gradient will ease today as a weakening frontal
boundary moves very slowly eastward from northeast Florida and the
Big Bend region. This will cause southwest winds to diminish below
10 knots and a sea breeze will form this afternoon. Seas should be
less than 3 feet.
However, boaters will need to be alert for strong storms moving off
the coast by late afternoon. Expect Special Marine Warnings again.