Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 131931
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
331 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS SEA
BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST MOVES
FARTHER INLAND. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY BOUNDARY MERGERS THAT OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH INTO THE
EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING BY MIDNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER A CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR ONSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS ALONG ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

MON-TUE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL
VEER SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY TO A DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EACH DAY. HOWEVER BEST
CHANCE FOR BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND STORM ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
OVER THE INTERIOR MONDAY AND THEN SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE EAST COAST
TUESDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE OFFSHORE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WED-THU...SURFACE/LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A DEEP SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW OVER EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH GREATEST STORM COVERAGE FOCUSED TOWARD THE EAST
COAST.

FRI...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING LIFTS NORTH ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO RE ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTH BACK OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL
ALLOW BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO FORM AND PUSH
INLAND WITH AN AFTERNOON COLLISION MOST LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR
THIRD OF CENTRAL FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE
INTERIOR THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON PRODUCING TEMPO IFR/MVFR
CONDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS...
GENERALLY ENDING BY 04Z. MAY STILL SEE A FEW ONSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS SOUTH OF KVRB OVERNIGHT DUE TO PREVAILING SOUTHEAST FLOW.
OTHERWISE VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MID MORNING MONDAY. EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE WILL THEN BEGIN TO FORM WITH ISO/SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN INTO THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...S/SE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS RANGING FROM 2-3 FEET.

MON-THU...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
MON AND TUE 15 KNOTS OR LESS AS A WEAKENING COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS OVER NORTH FLORIDA. STORMS COMING OFF THE MAINLAND BECOME
MORE OF A THREAT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPE WHICH WILL MAKE
AFTERNOON BOATING A BIT OF A CHALLENGE ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  89  75  91 /  20  40  20  40
MCO  75  93  75  93 /  20  40  20  40
MLB  76  89  76  89 /  10  30  20  40
VRB  74  89  74  90 /  20  30  20  40
LEE  76  93  77  92 /  20  50  20  40
SFB  75  93  77  93 /  20  40  20  40
ORL  76  93  77  93 /  20  40  20  40
FPR  73  89  74  89 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...WEITLICH
IMPACT WX/RADAR....KELLY







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