Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 230720
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
320 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight...Atlc Ridge position remains south of the area
with deep S-SW flow and ample moisture. Cloudiness ovhd has not
fully diminished and MOS guid reflects a lower precip cvrg across
the area today likely due to cot`d cloud cover and restricted
instability. Today`s forecast is a little lower for PoP while
keeping a sct mention of afternoon storms in considering overall
setup. Best chcs for locally heavy rain will be along the E coast
where a limited east coast breeze boundary moves inland providing
opportunity for deep convection and a strong storm or two. Storms
over land wl come to an end by around 11 PM with some lingering
showers and storms over the Atlantic waters into the overnight.
Expect highs around 90 to 93 and lows tonight in the M70s.

Mon-Mon Night...The low-level Atlantic ridge axis will align
itself between central/south-central FL. Mid-level ridging will
remain shunted across the southern FL peninsula. The former weak
troughing pattern aloft across the region will give way to light
zonal flow, but there will be occasional impulses embedded within
this flow that will traverse the area. 500 mb temperatures continue
to be forecast between -7C/-8C providing for ample afternoon
destabilization. PWAT values will remain between 1.80-2.00 inches
with highest values focused northward across ECFL. We should again
see an east coast sea breeze developing along the Space/Treasure
coasts with this feature pushing inland quicker across the Treasure
Coast. Expect scattered (40-50pct) afternoon/evening showers/storms.

Local threats continue to be torrential downpours leading to minor
nuisance flooding, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and perhaps some
small hail. Storm motion remains light and out of the SW or W which
continues to favor the eastern peninsula for most convective storms
in the afternoon and evening. Some convective activity will continue
to show variable directional movement due to strong boundary
mergers. Convection will decrease/dissipate during the evening with
cloud debris thinning through late night. High temperatures
generally in the L90s (perhaps a few M90s interior) and overnight
lows remain mild in the L-M70s with muggy conditions.

Tue-Sat...Not a lot of change in the extended with medium range
models over the past 24 hours. The low-level ridge axis remains
forecast to linger between the central/south-central FL peninsula,
getting nudged even further southward late in the week. Weak zonal
flow in the mid-levels will gradually be replaced once again with a
weak troughy mid-level pattern across the southeast U.S. and Deep
South, extending into north Florida. This will keep mid-level
ridging suppressed over south FL and the FL Straits into late week.
Our pattern of cooler mid-level temperatures is still forecast to
warm from mid-week into the weekend. While this will have an effect
on overall destabilization, we will still see occasional weak
shortwave energy pass across the region that will aid in convective
development each day. Still feel "high-end" scattered afternoon and
evening shower/storm wording continues to look appropriate for this
period. Storm steering flow appears to remain light SWRLY/WRLY, but
does strengthen Thu-Sat with the approach of the aforementioned mid-
level troughing. Near seasonal temps in the M70s for lows and highs
in the L-M90s expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
Initial shower/storm development along and north of the I-4
corridor, with additional SHRA/TS forming and slowly spreading
inland through afternoon. Cig/Vsby reductions to Tempo MVFR in
reduced visibility and cigs NR Fl040-050 with brief IFR possible
mainly from early through mid-aftn.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight...Surface high pressure ridge will remain located
just south of the waters. This will produce favorable conds with
sig WVs 1-2 feet near the coast and around 3 feet beyond 20NM
from the coast.

Mon-Thu...Consistent weather pattern continues. The low-level ridge
axis remains stationed between the central/south-central FL
peninsula. Expect gentle to moderate breezes ranging from S/SE
during the day to S/SW overnight. Seas AOB 2FT near shore and 2-3FT
offshore (up to 4FT in the Gulf Stream at times, generally well
north of Sebastian Inlet). Biggest threat to mariners will be from
night/morning Gulf Stream convection and late morning/afternoon-
early evening convection along the east coast intracoastal/near
shore Atlantic waters as storm motion remains light and out of the
southwest or west.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 2 AM, Shingle Creek at Campbell (SHIF1) was at 58.30 ft,
which is 0.30 foot above Action Stage but below minor flood stage
of 59 ft. River level updates and forecasts will be issued at
least once daily while the creek remains above action stage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  74  91  75 /  50  30  50  40
MCO  88  74  93  76 /  40  20  50  30
MLB  89  74  91  76 /  50  30  40  30
VRB  90  73  91  75 /  40  30  30  20
LEE  89  76  92  77 /  40  20  50  30
SFB  89  75  93  76 /  50  20  50  40
ORL  89  76  94  77 /  40  20  50  30
FPR  90  72  92  74 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pendergrast
LONG TERM....Sedlock


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