Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 230200
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...FROM AROUND THE BIG BEND AREA TO JACKSONVILLE. THIS HAS
PLACED EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S LATE THIS EVENING AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND IN A FEW CASES...LOW 70S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP INTO THE DRIER AIRMASS ABOVE THE
SURFACE TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE BAHAMAS/CUBA...AND WITH THE MAIN
SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH...RAIN
CHANCES LOOK PRETTY SLIM THROUGH TUES MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN VOLUSIA AND
LAKE...BUT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SPORADIC. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN THESE AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY...BUT THE TREND WILL BE DOWNWARDS AND IMPACTS
MINIMAL. A FEW SHOWERS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WARM GULF
STREAM.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...VERY MOIST DEWPOINTS AND A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY NEARBY ARE A GOOD RECIPE FOR FOG ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHY
FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN A FEW SPOTS...AND WILL MENTION AREAS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 23/06Z...OCCASIONAL CIGS FL020-040 MAINLY NORTH
OF KISM-KTIX. LCL MVFR FOG DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT REGION.
23/06Z-23/14Z...WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS IN FOG WITH LCL IFR/LIFR
STRATUS CIGS. 23/14Z-23/16Z...S WINDS INCREASING TO 7-10KTS WITH
VSBYS BECOMING VFR AND CIGS SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH MVFR TO VFR.
CIGS/FOG MAY LINGER LONGER VCNTY KLEE...KDED...KDAB. AFTER
23/16Z...S WINDS 10-15KTS WITH CIGS BECOMING VFR. A FEW -SHRA
POSSIBLE NORTH OF KLEE-KDAB LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...PREVAILING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW 10-15KTS THROUGH TUESDAY
AS AREA REMAINS SOUTH OF WARM FRONT BOUNDARY AND UNDER INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH OVER ATLANTIC. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT
OFFSHORE. DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 9SEC...BUT FRESHENING SE WINDS
WILL PUT THE WATERS SOUTH OF FORT PIERCE INLET INCREASINGLY UNDER
THE SHADOW OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH DOMINANT PERIODS SHORTENING TO
AROUND 5 SEC.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

MOSES/SHARP






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