Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 230040
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
840 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIME BY LATE FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES IN CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM OFF THE DELMARVA TONIGHT. LATEST SAT WV IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY SLOT PUNCHING IN TOWARD MONTAUK HELPING TO ENHANCE MID
LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY...WITH LINE OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS
WITH GRAVITY WAVE LIKE APPEARANCE S OF MONTAUK AND MOVING NW
TOWARD THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. CONVECTION IS ELEVATED
BUT DUCTING OF GRAVITY WAVE ENERGY JUST N OF THE APPROACHING
OCCLUDED FRONT COULD ALLOW VERY STRONG WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE
THERE...AND WE ARE MONITORING RADAR FOR POSSIBLE SVR TSTM WARNING
ISSUANCES.

ELSEWHERE...BANDS OF LIGHT./MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW TONIGHT AS IT DEEPENS AND PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FLUCTUATE MUCH WITH THE RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER...AND NO CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS...REMAINING MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS CLOSED OFF AND BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES AND
MOVES A LITTLE QUICKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN INTO FRIDAY. BANDS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SLOWLY LOWERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND LOW INTENSITY AND
A BLEND WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES
WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST CANADA DURING THE
WEEKEND.

SO ESSENTIALLY...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE REGION
WITH MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DELIVER ANOTHER COOL AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. IT EVEN
APPEARS THERE COULD BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE.
THE AIR MASS MODERATES TO WARMER THAN NORMAL ON AVERAGE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATE NEXT WEDNESDAY.

QUITE A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE IT COULD VERY WELL MOVE
THROUGH DRY WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCES.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SHOWN AND DESPITE THE LACK OF
MOISTURE...THE SHORTWAVE AND VORTICITY ADVECTION IS LARGE SATURDAY
NIGHT SO THIS COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE CONVECTION BUT WITH
INSTABILITY OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...LEFT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH...THEN EAST OF LONG
ISLAND INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED POCKETS
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN IFR OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND ITS
DURATION IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. POCKETS OF
VFR POSSIBLE BY MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IN THIS IS ALSO NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

WINDS SLOWLY BACK FROM NNE TO NNW-NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STRONGER WINDS/GUSTS INITIALLY NEAR SOUTH SHORES OF CT/LONG
ISLAND/NYC TO GET STARTED. DO EXPECT WINDS AT OTHER TERMINALS TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING. GENERALLY HAVE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND 25-30KT
INTO AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PEAK GUSTS COULD
BE AS MUCH AS 10KT HIGHER AS THOSE FORECAST IN THE TAF.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RA. NW
WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL/CITY TERMINALS.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY MVFR. NW WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR. W WINDS G20-25KT
POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR. NW WINDS
G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY...
REACHING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY EVENING. LATEST SFC OBS
INDICATE WINDS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST...AND THE 18Z NAM AND
OTHER HI-RES MODELS ARE CAPTURING THE SITUATION WELL....INCLUDING
BRIEF EPISODE OF WINDS NEAR 50 KT OVER THE FAR ERN OCEAN WATERS
THIS EVENING. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
ALL WATERS...AND FOR THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THU AFTERNOON.

SCA LEVEL GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS ON THU. AS THE
LOW PULLS NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE WIND WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SCA LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY.
OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT.

STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
WATERS. THESE WILL LOWER TO BELOW SCA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BUT WILL TREND BACK UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GALES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THESE LOWER BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN FROM WEST
TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WILL TOTAL FROM AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEW JERSEY TO 1 1/4 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/JM
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET/JM
HYDROLOGY...MET/JM








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