Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 191754
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
154 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH MOVES EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
ON MONDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST IS ON TRACK WITH NO SIG CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SLIDES EAST TO THE GULF
OF MAINE CAUSING WINDS TO VEER TO SE.

FEW-SCT STRATO-CU BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TODAY...OVERALL
A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS 10 OR SO DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT LONG ISLAND BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ZONAL UPPER FLOW EARLY...GIVE WAY TO EAST COAST RIDGING AS NORTHERN
STREAM DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE WELL
OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.

STRATUS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NYC
METRO AND POINTS W/NW...WITH RETURN FLOW TRAPPING MOISTURE UNDER
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE
FLOW TEMPS LIKELY DON`T BOTTOM OUT...BUT STILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASONABLE. TEMPS IN THE 50S ALONG THE COAST...AND 40S
INTERIOR.

GUSTY SE WAA FLOW ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MODERATION IN
T/TD. MODELS SIGNALING SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING IN RETURN
FLOW...BUT WITH RATHER DRY SOUNDINGS AND LACK OF FORCING THIS MAY
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON UNDER A
LIFTING BUT LINGERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY BY LATE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES THEN COME INTO PLAY
THEREAFTER. ONE OTHER ELEMENT THAT BEARS WATCHING IS HOW QUICKLY THE
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SE COAST IS PICKED UP BY THE DIGGING TROUGH.
THERE SEEMS TO BE LARGE DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS LEADING TO HIGH
VARIABILITY IN THE SYSTEMS FORWARD SPEED AND TRACK. SINCE THERE IS
SUCH HIGH SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE WON`T GO INTO MUCH DETAILS AT
THIS POINT...BUT POPS MIGHT NEED TO BE INCREASED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THIS SYSTEM. IT
COULD ALSO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE KEEPING ALL PCPN THERE AS
WELL. HAVE ADDED SCHC POPS FROM AREAS E OF FAIRFIELD COUNTY CT AND
NASSAU COUNTY N NY FOR NOW AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING THIS AT
TIMES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.

OTHERWISE...THE DIGGING TROUGH SLOWS UP OVER THE EAST COAST DUE TO
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING...BUT STILL IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR THE SFC
COLD FRONT TO PUSH E OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT. DECENT SHORTWAVE
ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT ALOFT...BUT IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUICK SHOT
OF RAIN WITH A SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED ATMOSPHERE. THE NAM HAS
BEEN DISCOUNTED AS IT IS THE ONLY SOLN THAT DEVELOPS A WAVE IN SRN
NEW ENGLAND AND IS A SLOW OUTLIER WITH THE WAVE OFF THE SE COAST.
THE SHORTWAVE ALSO PIVOTS INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EVE TAKING THE
BEST DYNAMICS WITH IT. HIGHEST CHCS OF PCPN WILL BE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER. HAVE ALSO ADDED SCHC TSTMS SUN AFTN/NIGHT WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY POSSIBLE. HIGHS SUN ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY MON MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
THE TROF AXIS MON EVE. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING THEN BUILDS FROM THE
PLAINS RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND AT 17Z WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY EAST THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST.

MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
AFTER 07Z AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH CEILINGS 2KFT
TO 3KFT. SATURDAY MORNING CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR AND THEN
BECOME UNLIMITED WITH SCATTERED CU. VISIBILITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE IMPACTED TONIGHT.


    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY...MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG/CLOUDS...POSSIBLY LOCALLY IFR AFTER 04Z WITH DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE MORNING WITH AREAS OF MARGINAL VFR IN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS ENDING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
.MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KT ON THE OCEAN EARLY THIS AFTN WILL
SLOWLY VEER SE AND DIMINISH BY EVENING. WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH 3
TO 5 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN RESULT IN THE SCA REMAINING IN EFFECT.

SE WINDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SUB SCA WINDS AND DIMINISHING
RESIDUAL E SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ALLOW SEAS TO FALL JUST BELOW SCA
OVERNIGHT.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO MID
WEEK. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO MARGINAL SCA LEVELS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH AN INCREASING NLY
FLOW. SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

LESS THAN 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUN NIGHT. DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/NV
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE/NV
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...24/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...24/TONGUE






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