Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 100528
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1228 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST PASSES WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFTS
SLOWLY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED WITH THIS UPDATE.
THE NEW 00Z NAM CONTINUES THE TREND OF VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALL HIGH RES
GUIDANCE...INCLUDE THE HIRES NAM...HRRR...EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR...AND RAP ARE ONLY INDICATING SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE SREF INDICATE A
MEAN SNOWFALL BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA.
LATEST RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ALSO SUPPORT THE
CANCELLATION OF THE ADVISORY. RADAR RETURNS HAVE GENERALLY
WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS JUST SOME FLURRIES BEING
REPORTED.

HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS TO GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH INLAND TO
1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE COAST...ALTHOUGH IT COULD END UP BEING
CLOSER TO AN INCH THERE. THE LATEST SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY STILL BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH THE POSSIBILITY MUCH OF THE AREA ONLY A
RECEIVES COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH.

THE LOCAL AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...ONE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND ONE ABOUT 175 MILES
SOUTH OF THE LONG ISLAND. A MESO HIGH IS LOCATED OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WHICH IS HELPING TO PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE AND PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT LIFT FOR GOOD SNOW GROWTH. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
RELATIVE MINIMUM IN VORTICITY ADVECTION AS A STRONG PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVES OFFSHORE AT H5...AND ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. THINKING IS THIS H5 SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING AND THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT COULD HELP TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS IT
NEARS THE AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S INLAND TO THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANY LIGHT SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING. DRY CONDS
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL STAY SOUTH OF
THE REGION.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD REACH 40 IN MOST AREAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROF REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS PLUNGING
SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC AND INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEKEND. IN
FACT...HEIGHT AND TEMP FIELD ANOMALIES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 3-5 SD
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT
-25 TO -30 DEG C. THIS WILL EQUATE TO DAYTIME HIGHS ON SAT
STRUGGLING TO GET TO 20 AND NOT OUT OF THE TEENS ON SUN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SUN MORNING WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO WITH WIND
CHILLS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA...-15 TO -24 DEG F.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRI PASSES
THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON AND
IN FACT MANY YEARS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. A STRONG NW FLOW WILL BE
PRESENT ON THU BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND AGAIN SAT AND SUN
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. IN FACT...WINDS ON THESE DAYS WILL
LIKELY GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THUS...THIS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS SAT INTO SUN.

AS FOR ANY PCPN...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING OF A SNOW SQUALL ASSOC WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
THEREAFTER...A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES MON INTO TUE WITH
SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS. AIRMASS
MODERATES SIGNIFICANTLY MON INTO TUE WITH HIGH IN 30S MON AND INTO
THE 40S ON TUE. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE A SNOW TO RAIN EVENT...BUT
THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY VFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. THERE WILL BE TIMES IN SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SNOW THAT
VISIBILITIES BECOME IFR WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS. LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. AS THE SNOW ENDS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 INCH IS POSSIBLE.

WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME WESTERLY 5 TO 10 KT
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY. AT THE NYC
METRO TERMINALS GUSTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE
GUSTS SUBSIDE AT THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.LATE WED NIGHT...VFR. W GUSTS 20-25KT AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.
.THU...SLIGHT CHC -SHSN...OTHERWISE VFR. WNW GUSTS 25-30KT.
.FRI...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...VFR. NW GUSTS 20-30KT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON THE WATERS REMAINS ON TRACK.

SCA CONDS PERSIST ON THE OCEAN WATERS...MAINLY FOR HIGH SEAS
TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WEDNESDAY...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25-30 KT WILL DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS LATE IN THE MORNING. WILL
HOIST SCA FOR THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. FOR THE OCEAN...GALES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GALE CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THU WITH A
STRONG NW GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WITH
SEAS POSSIBLY LINGERING AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS RETURN SAT INTO SUN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT WIT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES MON INTO TUE WITH THE
CHANCE OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT. THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND PTYPE AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A GRADUALLY DOWNWARD TREND IN SURGE AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS FOR NY
HARBOR...COASTAL NE NJ AND WESTERN LI SOUND WITH THIS EVENINGS HIGH
TIDE CYCLE...AND LOCALLY MODERATE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. SURGE LOWERS FURTHER FOR WEDNESDAY MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE...WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES
OF THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS...NY HARBOR...NE NJ...AND WESTERN LI SOUND.

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHTS HIGH
TIDE...WITH ANY BRIEF LOCALIZED MINOR IMPACTS LIKELY BEING RELEGATED
TO THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LI.

SURF WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER SO BEACH IMPACTS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS:

STATION.........RECORD MINIMUM.............RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
                   FOR 2/14                     FOR 2/14

NYC.................2 (1916)....................17 (1979)....
LGA.................1 (1979)....................15 (1979)....
JFK.................4 (1979)....................17 (1979)....
ISP.................7 (2015)....................26 (1987)....
EWR.................0 (1979)....................15 (1979)....
BDR.................3 (2015*)...................18 (1979)....

*IN 1979 AS WELL

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ009.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ009.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ071-078-081-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TODAY FOR NYZ074-075-080-178-179.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TODAY FOR NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BC/MET
MARINE...MPS/DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...


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