Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 251442
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
942 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TRI-STATE ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT STALLS OUT
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMAINING RAIN IS CLEARING THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND ON SCHEDULE.
CLEARING IS NOW INTO WESTERN NJ AND PRESSING RAPIDLY EAST. WINDS
ARE GUSTING TO 40 MPH AT KEWR AS OF 920 AM.

NO SIG CHANGES TO THE NEAR TERM AT THIS TIME AND HAVE JUST
TIGHTENED UP THE ENDING OF THE RAIN AND THE CLEARING ON THE SKY
GRIDS.


TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY THE REST OF THE MORNING AND THEN
SLOWLY FALL OFF INTO THE 40S BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

WINDS GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH THOUGHT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS LAST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ITS
AXIS BUILDING OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THEN SLIDING OFF TO THE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD
KEEP THINGS DRY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MINIMAL
CLOUD COVER THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO
BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH
VALUES AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR HIGHS SATURDAY A
BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX
DOWN FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECM/ECE/WPC
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH EXCEPTION OF CMC - MODELS HAVE IN GENERAL COME INTO FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA THAT THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...ENDS UP STALLING OUT TO FAR TO THE SOUTH
FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG IT TO HAVE MUCH IF ANY
IMPACT ON THE AREA. TWO POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS ARE WITH THE INITIAL
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY.

FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FIRST WAVE. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ONLY RAIN IN THIS TIME FRAME.

THE REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN A CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE N AND
RIDGING OFF THE FL COAST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO DETERMINING THE EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED COLD FRONT. FOR NOW APPEARS
STRONGEST SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ON TUESDAY...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...OTHERWISE HAVE
GONE DRY OVER LAND MONDAY- TUESDAY NIGHT. LIKELY WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH IN THE LOWEST LAYERS TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FOR NOW THOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AS THE AREA SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH NORTHERN STREAM RIDGING PASSING OVER
THE AREA.

FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED. AFTER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY WITH VFR AND A STRONG SURFACE WESTERLY
FLOW. WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT THOUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND FCST. MAY SEE AN
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND FCST. MAY SEE AN
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND FCST. MAY SEE AN
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST POSSIBLE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS HIGHER
THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS HIGHER
THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS HIGHER
THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MARGINAL VFR. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.
.MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING...WINDS NOW GUSTING TO GALE FORCE ON LAND IN THE NYC
AREA AND THIS WILL MOVE OUT OVER ALL WATERS BY NOON.

THIS EVENING...WINDS LOWER TO SCA LEVEL QUICKLY THIS EVENING...TAPERING
OFF TO BELOW SCA LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
FROM SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC/GOODMAN
MARINE...BC/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...





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