Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 030233
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
933 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of disturbances will push across New England and the
Canadian Maritimes through Saturday night resulting in gusty
northwest winds across the area. High pressure builds Sunday, then
gives way to a weak disturbance Sunday night into Monday. High
pressure builds in late Monday into Tuesday. A frontal system will
approach for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Earlier radar returns with a few sprinkle across southern
Connecticut have dissipated in the downsloping northwest flow and
as the area moved into drier air. Gusty winds have increased as
low level winds have increased. Also upper shortwave and trough
was moving off the Long Island coast.

Updated the winds, temperatures, and dew points for the current
conditions and trends.

Gusty downsloping winds will continues overnight as the surface
pressure gradient will remain tight enough and low level winds
remain around 35 KTS. Lows will be a little lower than Friday
morning`s with colder air moving into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The first trough and associated energy rotates offshore and is
followed by a second disturbance with associated mid-level energy
that rotates across northern New England toward Boston tomorrow
afternoon into tomorrow evening. As a result, we may get some
breaks in the clouds at times, especially toward the coast as the
flow remains offshore and the northwesterly flow off the terrain
may aid in breaking up some of the lower clouds around. The
surface pressure gradient remains tight and winds in the 925-700
mb level increase to around 35 kts, so gusts again over 30 mph can
be expected through early Saturday evening. Temps will be a little
below normal for highs.

Winds will start to drop off Saturday night as the energy works
offshore and high pressure at the surface combined with mid-level
ridging builds in from the west. Clouds should clear on out and
with less wind, expect a chillier night. The coldest spots well
north and west of The City and in the Pine Barrens of Long Island
will drop into the 20s with readings in The City in the mid to
upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak ridge aloft Sunday gives way to weak shortwave and
progressive pattern. Southern stream shortwave moves out of
Mexico, and tracks across Texas Monday before weakening as it
moves quickly across the southeast states Tuesday. Meanwhile,
closed northern stream low moves across central Canada, making
slow progress toward the Great Lakes mid week, then into New
England late in the week.

Differences noted in position and strength of this impressive trough
is moves moves east late in the week.

At the surface, high pressure builds Sunday through Monday. Two
areas of low pressure will form along this frontal boundary. One
over the Southeast that will push off the southeast coast Tuesday
night, then head east. The other will develop over the Ohio Valley
and pass north of the area into Wednesday. These systems
associated with southern stream shortwave mentioned earlier.

Cold air damming signature noted for Tuesday, so precipitation may
start off as snow inland again, then change over to rain, with a
mixture of rain and snow Tuesday night. Again, QPF is expected
to be light.

As for Sunday night, upper trough could result in a few rain/snow
showers as it moves through. ECMWF is much wetter than the other
model solutions, less than a tenth of an inch. Based on this, upped
pops slightly, but would not be surprised to see very little qpf.
Worth watching.

Temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal through mid
week. Temps could jump slightly ahead of late week trough. Then
leaned toward colder numbers Friday, closer to WPC and away from
model blend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong low pressure in the Canadian maritimes will slowly drift
offshore overnight. Meanwhile high pressure builds into the Ohio
valley.

VFR through the period. SCT-BKN cigs 4-6kft will dissipate
overnight, especially for eastern terminals.

Gusts will persist around 20 kt for the city and coastal
terminals overnight, with gusts periodically dropping out for
interior TAF sites after 06z.

On Saturday, the gradient tightens and additional NW gusts are
expected. A few NW peak gusts could exceed 30 kt at times by early
afternoon, with peak gusts in the 15-20z timeframe. Wind direction
should be very close or just to the right of 310-320 magnetic
during the day. Gusts will start to decrease after 0z Sunday.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday night-Sunday...VFR.
.Monday..VFR...Low chc of early morning MVFR.
.Tuesday...Morning VFR...chc of MVFR in the afternoon.
.Wednesday...Morning MVFR with a mixture of rain and snow for
north and west terminals with rain across southern and eastern
terminals...with chc of sub VFR into the afternoon in rain
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty northwest winds will continue on the coastal waters through
Saturday afternoon as a series of disturbances works across New
England and the Canadian Maritimes. Given the northwest wind
trajectory, the highest waves will be well offshore as well as
toward the southeast end of The Sound and toward the mouth of New
York Harbor. A Small Craft Advisory was extended through 23Z
Saturday based on a tight pressure gradient and the potential for
winds to gust as high as 30 to perhaps 35 kts. There are fairly
strong winds aloft through Saturday evening, however, an inversion
looks to keep most of the strongest momentum trapped and from
reaching the surface. Wave heights will mainly be 4 to 7 feet on
the ocean. Winds will start to decrease Saturday evening, though
the Small Craft Advisory may need to be extended a but if winds
are slower to drop off.

As high pressure builds Sunday and Monday, winds diminish and seas
remain rather tranquil. Expect conditions to deteriorate Tuesday
into Wednesday as two areas of low pressure approach the waters, and
winds increase ahead of these lows. Seas expected to build, but
lowered forecast below Wave Watch III output.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant precipitation (greater than a half inch) is
forecast through Monday.

Unsettled weather is possible mid to late week next week. However,
no significant precipitation (greater than a half inch) is forecast
at this time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CS
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...CS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...MET/PW/CS
HYDROLOGY...PW/CS


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