Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 211158

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
758 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Showers today as a cold front gradually approaches from the west
and then moves through late tonight. Deepening low pressure will
track across New England into Quebec this weekend bringing windy
conditions to the Tri-State. A cold front will pass through on
Monday, followed by building high pressure through the middle of
the week.


Warm front pressing slowly north and was located near or just
north of the forecast area. Areas of fog mainly prevail across
interior southern CT and portions of the Lower Hudson Valley with
even some patchy dense fog. Conditions improve within the next 1
to 2 hours.

Latest radar shows showers developing along the NJ coast. NWP has
been persistent in showers, some heavy developing this morning
from the Jersey Coast north across the City and into New England.
The PCPN Shifts to the East this afternoon. Thus, would expect a
period of dry WX for the Mid Day into mid to late AFTN (lowered
POPs to 30%) for all but eastern sections (Likely POPs there).

Have removed thunder from the forecast as instability is very
marginal - but would not be surprised is there were a flash or two
with the shower activity this morning that pushes east this

By evening....PCPN comes back from the west as the cold front
finally gets here.

With this in mind, have followed the GFS MOS for temps into the
lower to mid 70s - that may even be a bit low. Also, with the
Cold Advection not starting until very late tonight, have gone
with the warmer GFS MOS again tonight.


Winds, cool temps, clouds and light showers make for a real fall
like day on Saturday. CAA keeps temps steady of falling slightly
thought the day.

Showers are scattered and light...mainly in the morning. Skies
become partly sunny as we downslope of the Appalachians in the
AFTN. POPs go from 50 down to 30 through the day.

Main story is the wind which will gust to 40 mph in the afternoon (just
below advisory level of 45+. Some airports like JFK is have
sustain wind speeds into the lower 30s - which is technically
advisory criteria).


Global models remain very similar with the evolution of the system
this weekend as a cutoff low embedded in a negatively tilted upper
trough lifts northward across New England and into eastern Canada.

Showers tapper off from south to north Saturday night as moisture
and forcing lift northward with the low. Gusty west winds up to
35 mph will continue through much of Sunday with around a 980 mb
low across eastern Canada.

A clipper type system will be racing towards the forecast area
Sunday night into Monday morning. This will allow winds to back
briefly to the west-southwest. The cold frontal passage looks to
be early enough in the day to not allow much of a warmup, so high
temperatures are similar to Sunday, which is close to or slightly
below seasonable.

The airmass that builds in for the Tuesday and Wednesday time period
looks to be around 10 degrees below average, and will have the
potential to produce a freeze across much if not all of the
interior, possibly getting into some of the coastal zones.

A frontal system of Pacific origin approaches from the Great Lakes
on Thursday. There are magnitude issues with how deep the low is
between the 00Z GFS and ECMWF, but overall the timing with this
system is remarkably close for this far out in time.


A warm front is lifting to the north through Connecticut early
this morning, followed by a cold front approaching from the west
and a wave of low pressure approaching from the south this
afternoon. The cold front crosses tonight. SE/ESE winds of 5 to
10 kt through the day...becoming light and variable this evening.

Early Morning: Ifr/mvfr cigs this morning...with vsby generally
mvfr/vfr in wake of warm frontal passage. Locally heavy shra
expected to work north through NYC/NJ metro terminals this
morning into early afternoon.

Late Morning/Afternoon: Re-development of ifr conds likely for
coastal terminals with low potential for LIFR or lower conds in
advection fog/stratus off the ocean. For KEWR/KTEB/KSWF...mvfr/vfr
conditions could linger into the afternoon. SHRA likely with a low
prob of an isolated tsra.

Evening: Likely deterioration to widespread LIFR or lower
conditions. SHRA likely.

After midnight: Improvement to MVFR conditions with NW winds
G30-35KT developing in wake of cold frontal passage. Shower

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at: http:/

KJFK TAF Comments: IFR cigs likely. Low confidence on vsby...with
mvfr likely and IFR or lower possible. This afternoon...low
potential for LIFR or lower conds in advection fog/stratus off the
ocean this afternoon.

KLGA TAF Comments: IFR cigs likely. Low confidence on vsby...with
mvfr/vfr likely and IFR or lower possible.

KEWR TAF Comments: IFR/MVFR cigs likely. Low confidence on
vsby...with mvfr likely and IFR or lower possible.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is yellow...which
implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: IFR/MVFR cigs likely. Low confidence on
vsby...with mvfr likely and IFR or lower possible.

KHPN TAF Comments: IFR/LIFR cigs likely. Low confidence on
vsby...with ifr/lifr likely and vLIFR possible.

KISP TAF Comments: IFR cigs likely. Low confidence on vsby...with
mvfr likely and IFR or lower possible. This afternoon...low
potential for LIFR or lower conds in advection fog/stratus off the
ocean this afternoon.

.Outlook for 12Z Saturday through Tuesday...
.Saturday-Sunday...VFR. WNW-NW winds G25-35KT likely.
.Sunday Night-Tuesday...VFR with NW winds g20-25KT possible.
Isolated shower possible Sunday Night into Mon Morning.


Fairly tranquil today.  Seas increase on the Ocean tonight.

Main even is prolonged Gales this weekend as low pressure deepens
to our north.

Gales are likely to continue across the waters on Sunday, especially
across the ocean waters. Wind gusts may briefly drop below 25 kt
Sunday night before a cold frontal passage on Monday brings a
return to SCA levels through Tuesday.


Showers today and tonight. Totals should average 1/4 - 1/2". No
hydrologic problems are expected.

Light PCPN is expect on Saturday.

Mainly dry weather is expected thereafter.


More isolated minor coastal flooding with this afternoon`s high
tide cycles. Generally 1-2 ft departures are needed for minor

A statement will be issued.


MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ330-
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 6 PM this evening
     to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.


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