Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 061140
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
445 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and sunny day today, another weather system will
drop down from Canada Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms across the north. Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances return
toward Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday: Today will be an in-between day. As the
weekend wave moves off to our east, we`ll see quiet weather
conditions with slightly warmer temperatures and lighter winds.
The second wave that is currently up in northern BC will slide
into our area on Tuesday, bringing the threat of showers and
thunderstorms to the northern part of the forecast area. Best
chance for precipitation will be in the northern Panhandle but we
could see thunderstorms develop as far west as the north Cascades.

These storms should fire over the northern mountains but the
northwest flow could easily take some of these storms off of the
mountains and into the Spokane/Cd`A metro area late Tuesday
afternoon. CAPE values off the NAM model would support hail, but
these seem a bit overdone (as usual). The dry sub-cloud layer up
to 10,000 feet would be more supportive of strong gusty winds. The
WRF-ARW does show a gust front propagating out of the mountains
and into the northern basin. For now I`ll avoid specific strong or
severe wording until we get closer to the event.  RJ

Tuesday night through Thursday...A short wave disturbance will drop
through the region on Tuesday. A chance for showers and embedded
thunderstorms will be kept in the forecast for Tuesday evening as
that wave progresses through the region. The focus will shift east
and south along the north and central Idaho Panhandle mountains,
with the convection coming to an end overnight. This will be
followed by weak high pressure building back into the region
Wednesday and Thursday for continued warm and dry conditions.
Temperatures will remain in the 90s to lower 100s and 15-20
degrees above normal. Conditions will remain dry with poor to
moderate relative humidity recoveries on mid slopes and ridges.
Fortunately it doesn`t appear as if winds will be a big issue.

Friday through the weekend...A closed low currently meandering
around the central California coast will finally move inland on
Thursday and Friday and looks to merge with a trough that will
move through the Gulf of Alaska. This will deepen the trough off
the WA/OR coast and put the PAC NW in a southerly flow through the
weekend. The southerly flow will allow deeper subtropical moisture
to move north into the PAC NW and result in wide spread showers
and thunderstorms...likely just across the southeast zones on
Friday, then pushing north through the region Saturday and Sunday.
At this time the convection in the forecast was broad brushed and
as we get closer to the weekend we should be able to fine tune the
forecast. One thing we can expect will be slightly cooler
temperatures...slightly higher relative humidity and much better
overnight recoveries. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS: The gusty northeast winds will subside this
morning.  Skies will remain sunny today.  By this evening some mid-
level clouds will move into the area.  Wildfire smoke in the area
could reduce visibilities at times.  RJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorm coverage on Tuesday afternoon evening warrants the
issuance of a Fire Weather Watch. The best chance for lightning
will be over the northern Panhandle and northeast Washington, with
a lesser chance over the Okanogan Highlands and the north
Cascades. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light. These
storms could generate localized gusty winds.  RJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        92  66  92  66  93  67 /   0   0  20  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  90  61  89  61  91  61 /   0  10  30  20  10  10
Pullman        90  57  92  57  91  57 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       98  68  99  69  98  69 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville       94  63  95  60  96  61 /   0  10  20  20  10  10
Sandpoint      88  55  87  54  90  54 /   0  10  30  30  10  10
Kellogg        88  57  88  56  89  58 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Moses Lake     98  67 100  70 100  68 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee     100  72 101  74 101  74 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           97  67  98  66  99  67 /   0  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$


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