Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 270928
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
228 AM PDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The passage of a cold front this morning will bring cooler and
breezy conditions...which will likely last through the Memorial
Day weekend. Accompanying the front and upper low will be a chance
for showers over the Idaho Panhandle and the mountainous portions
of Washington. Look for a gradual warming trend after the Memorial
Day weekend, with temperatures rising to above normal by the
middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday Night: Cold front has pushed through
eastern WA and is now moving into north ID. The best chance of
precipitation with this front will continue to be across northern
WA and ID. Some light reflectivity has shown up further south
(generally a line across eastern Spokane and Whitman counties).
The HRRR shows this line staying in tact the next several hours as
it moves east. Have increase chance of precip for the early
morning across the eastern Palouse and LC valley area. This
afternoon more widespread showers will develop as the cold core of
the upper level low settles across the north. Showers are likely
across the mountains of northern WA and ID, but cannot rule some
moving into the Waterville Plateau or other valley locations
across the north. Decent instability will lead to a slight chance
of thunderstorms generally north of a line from Republic to
Sandpoint. The thunder and shower threat will decrease as the sun
sets. Saturday the trough shifts north and east and the Inland
Northwest will see a more westerly flow aloft across the area. The
best chance of showers will once again be across the mountains,
mainly in the north. Have taken out the chance of thunder as both
the GFS and NAM show quite a bit less instability Saturday
compared to Friday. Winds will remain elevated today but be less
than what was seen yesterday. General speeds of 10-15 mph with
gusts to 20 are possible today. This evening occasional gusts to
25 mph will be possible across the Wenatchee Valley and into
portions of the Waterville Plateau. Temperatures will remain
below average through Saturday night. /Nisbet

Sunday through Friday: The most notable difference in model
guidance for the mid and extended range fcst remains, like last
night, the slower and deeper GFS solution with the Sunday frontal
passage, and especially the upper trough. The NAM and ECMWF were
in better agreement (though the ECMWF remains more progressive)
with bringing this Memorial Day weekend trough through the Pac Nw
in faster steering flow. That said, both Sunday and Memorial Day
have a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms for nearly all
mtn zones, with an isolated shower threat for the lower elevation
zones...including the Spokane/ Coeur d`Alene areas and south into
the Palouse and central Idaho Panhandle mtns. However, this latter
threat seems rather low as models are hinting at a fairly wide
post-frontal dry slot. This would limit the pcpn chances closer to
the BC border and from Lewiston to the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle. This
dry slot also means windy conditions across the Upper Columbia
Basin and the Wenatchee region especially Sunday following frontal
passage. Tues through Thurs may turn out to be warmer and dry for
all zones if the favored ECMWF keeps its run- to- run consistency.
Fcst temperatures were warmed a bit. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A cold front will move into eastern WA/north ID overnight
into Friday morning with another round of clouds and maybe some
isolated showers over the central and eastern TAF sites. Brief
MVFR cigs are possible, between 09-16Z. However VFR conditions are
expected to dominate. Clouds should begin to thin around EAT
tonight. Wind will slacken slightly early tonight but will pick
up with the cold front Friday around 12-16Z. Winds then abate and
clouds will thin Friday afternoon and evening. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        61  43  63  47  70  49 /  20  10  10   0  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  60  42  62  44  69  48 /  20  10  20   0  30  30
Pullman        58  41  60  44  68  46 /  10   0  10   0  20  20
Lewiston       64  47  67  49  75  52 /  20   0  10   0  20  20
Colville       63  42  65  44  69  45 /  60  20  20  20  50  50
Sandpoint      58  39  60  41  67  45 /  50  20  20  20  60  60
Kellogg        55  40  58  41  66  44 /  30  10  30  10  50  50
Moses Lake     69  45  71  47  76  49 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Wenatchee      68  49  71  52  75  52 /  10   0  10   0  20  10
Omak           68  44  69  48  73  49 /  20  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



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