Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 252145

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
245 PM PDT Tue Oct 25 2016

The next couple of days will be wet as a warm front moves over
the region on Wednesday and stalls Thursday. Central and eastern
Washington may get a break from the rain on Friday, but showery
weather is expected to return for the weekend into early next


Tonight through Wednesday: For early evening, some residual showers
mainly in the mountain areas are expected with snow in the higher
elevations. Patchy fog is possible in the Northern valley areas.
Overnight, a warm front with a decent slug of moisture will start
to push into the region from the south and will bring widespread
rain showers to the Inland Northwest. The models are in good
agreement with this system except when to begin to cut off the
precip in the Camas Prairie and Palouse region tomorrow evening.
With this inconsistency, the chance of precip was decreased in the
region to slight. This slow moving stratiform event for the next
48 hours is expect to bring decent amounts of rain to the rain.
The Columbia Basin is expected to get amounts of around half an
inch in the southern portion to three quarters in the northern.
The Cascades could receive an inch to inch and a half inches of
rain causing some minor mud slides and debris flow along burn scar
areas. Northern Idaho and Washington rainfall amounts will vary
from three quarters of an inch to one inch. The Camas Prairie and
Palouse could expect around two tenths to half an inch. Winds will
be breezy for periods as the front pushy through with gusts up to
20 MPH. Cloud cover will keep the temperatures from large diurnal
swings. Highs will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s and lows in
the 40s. /JDC

Thursday: Forecast confidence is not high for Thursday. The models
have struggled to handle the placement of a stalled front on
Thursday and the timing of an approaching shortwave embedded in
the southwesterly flow. The morning runs of the GFS, NAM, and
Canadian models are in decent agreement that a swath of a tenth of
a quarter inch of rain will occur Thursday across southeast
Washington through the Spokane metro into the Idaho Panhandle. The
ECMWF is a drier solution during the day Thursday. However, the
ECMWF does drag the shortwave through eastern Washington Thursday
night into Friday morning...a later arrival of the rain. /GKoch

Friday and Saturday: There is good model agreement that a brief
upper ridge will build into the region to begin the weekend. The
discrepancy comes with the timing, but the forecast will lean
toward the more consistent solution which will build a negatively
tilted ridge in on Friday into late Saturday morning. This will
allow us to dry out briefly, though clouds will stick around,
before another shortwave rotates around the low offshore, bringing
rain chances to the region for Saturday afternoon and evening.
Temps will remain around normal in the low to mid 50s. /bwilliams

Saturday Night through Tuesday: GFS and EC agree on a large low
pressure system sitting off the northern CA and southern OR coast
Saturday night and moving inland on Sunday. The stronger energy
associated with the low goes south into CA and NV. However some
energy moves trough in the southerly flow Sunday and Sunday night.
The best chance of rain will be across extreme eastern WA and
north ID. Snow levels will remain high...above 6k ft for E WA and
north ID and above 5500 ft for the Cascades. Sunday night into
Monday the models start to diverge. They do show another closed
low approaching the west coast. The GFS the last few runs has been
quite a bit faster in bringing the low just south of our forecast
area. The EC is slower and brings it further south. After that
models continue to disagree on another trough to impact the
region. Kept chance of precipitation high for Monday and then
Tuesday take the best chance up to the mountains of the region.
Sky cover will remain fairly extensive through the extended
period, but brief periods of breaks in the clouds is likely.
Daytime Temperatures in the 50s or about 0-3 degrees warmer than
average is expected given the general southerly flow across the
region. Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s or
about 6-10 degrees above average for this time of the year. Given
the cloud cover expected each night locations will not have a
chance to radiate out. /Nisbet


18Z TAFS: As the occluded front continues to push East out of
region, VFR conditions are expected for all sites for Tuesday with
mid level clouds expected. Late tonight after 06Z a warm front
will develop over southern WA and move northward...bringing
lowering cigs and an onset of -RA at the KLWS..KPUW...KMWH...KEAT
and possibly the KGEG area TAF sites after 09Z. /JDC


Spokane        45  54  48  54  42  53 /  20 100  70  80  40  10
Coeur d`Alene  44  54  47  54  42  53 /  20 100  60  80  60  20
Pullman        47  60  48  55  44  54 /  50  90  30  70  60  30
Lewiston       50  64  50  59  47  57 /  40  80  20  60  50  40
Colville       40  50  44  54  40  53 /  10 100  80  70  40  10
Sandpoint      39  49  43  52  39  51 /  10 100  80  80  60  10
Kellogg        41  53  44  53  41  51 /  30  90  40  80  80  30
Moses Lake     46  57  48  57  41  56 /  20 100  70  50  20  10
Wenatchee      45  53  47  57  43  55 /  30 100  80  20  20  10
Omak           43  52  46  56  41  55 /  10 100  90  20  20  10



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