Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 280008
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
708 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered light showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
to move west to east across the northern half of Oklahoma this
evening. Early Friday morning, low clouds are expected to move
northward from Texas into central Oklahoma and last through midday
Friday in many areas. By afternoon, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
An upper-level disturbance tracking across the central Plains will
help generate scattered showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms,
over parts of Oklahoma this evening.

Of much greater importance is the next storm system that will
begin to affect Oklahoma and north Texas on Friday, mainly during
the evening. Previous discussions have gone into the fine details
of the meteorological situation and model output regarding Friday
evening`s severe weather and flooding potential...and there is
very little change with this forecast. The same models are still
showing the same variations from each other.

Models show a very sharp cold front Saturday, and this is
difficult to impossible to mimic in the gridded forecast. The NAM
suggests, for example, that temperatures in the 60s degrees F will
lie in a very thin strip along I-44 at midday Saturday.

We have left the existing Flood Watch unchanged, but could see
adding a few counties along the edges in a later forecast update
if we see a better trending of the models in one direction or the
other.

As this system begins to depart to the northeast, some rather
cold air will be pulled into far northwest Oklahoma. Current model
forecasts indicate that snow, or rain mixed with snow, will be a
definite possibility early Sunday. Accumulation of significance is
not expected, and any snow that might accumulate will likely melt
very quickly with soil temperatures being well above freezing.

Another system will bring another chance of showers and
thunderstorms about midweek, much like today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  55  77  56 /  10  40   0  80
Hobart OK         76  53  78  52 /  20  30   0  70
Wichita Falls TX  79  61  84  60 /  10  10  10  70
Gage OK           72  47  73  44 /  30  40  10  70
Ponca City OK     65  51  74  51 /  20  50  10  80
Durant OK         72  60  81  69 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for
     OKZ025-026-028>032-040>043-047-048.

TX...None.
&&

$$

25/09/09



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