Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 130908
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
308 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Fire weather concerns and possible precipitation were the main focus
for this forecast period.

Warmer than yesterday temperatures are expected across much of the
area today with highs climbing into the 60s to low 70s. Winds will
shift from the southwest/west to the northwest today as a boundary
moves across the region. Elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions are expected today due to the warm temperatures, breezy
winds, low humidity, and dry vegetation. The highest potential for
conditions to possibly meet Red Flag Warning criteria will be in NW
parts of the fa. NW winds in this area will be the strongest along
with low humidity, however, temperatures are not expected to be as
warm as areas further south and the wind speeds could remain below
20 mph for most of the day. With the offset of some of the
parameters and some question on whether will meet red flag warning
criteria will hold off on issuing a warning for now but will issue a
fire danger statement and let the day shift monitor the situation.

Cooler temperatures are then expected the next couple of days before
warming again on Saturday when winds will have shifted back to the
south/southwest. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions
will be possible as well on Saturday. However, models are now
showing some moisture returning to portions of the area so
humidities may not be as low for some areas. High temperatures could
not be as warm as previously forecasted as well.

Models are now trending with producing some precipitation over the
weekend as a shortwave moves NE across Texas into parts of SE
Oklahoma. Showers and some thunderstorms could be possible Saturday
night across portions of the fa with this shortwave. The
precipitation will likely remain light. The GFS shows some
precipitation also occurring late this weekend into early next week
as upper trough moves across the region. The moisture may have moved
out of the area by the previous shortwave by then which would make
precipitation harder to occur so will keep forecast dry after
Saturday for now and see if this model trend continues as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  65  34  48  30 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         67  32  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  68  32  53  30 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           64  32  48  23 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     63  30  46  28 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         69  36  52  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

09/25


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