Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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759
FXUS64 KOUN 222315
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
615 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.AVIATION...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will impact most sites
overnight. Heaviest activity will create temporary MVFR conditions
this evening. Ceililngs may drop into MVFR cat late tonight across
central into southern sections of the area before skies clear by mid-
morning. Northeast winds of 8 to 12kts will remain with a shift back
to the southeast at both GAG/WWR by Wednesday afternoon.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/

.DISCUSSION...
Cold front continues to slowly move south this afternoon, and the
afternoon convection has already developed along the front in
southwest Oklahoma and the southeast Texas panhandle. Despite
decent instability, wind shear is very low, so although some
storms may briefly become strong or marginally severe, organized
severe weather is unlikely. The primary issue will be locally
heavy rainfall/flooding with the combination of high precipitable
water and slow movement. The special 17Z OUN sounding recorded a
precipitable water content of 1.65 inches, just under the 90th
percentile for this time of year. Storm chances continue through
tomorrow, mainly close to the frontal zone in the south. Return
moisture leads to some additional storm chances tomorrow night
into Friday, mainly west. Then attention shifts to the tropical
system advertised by the models to move inland on the Texas Gulf
Coast late Friday or Saturday. It still remains a question how far
north the moisture will push through Texas or if we will remain
in a more subsident region, so there is quite a bit of uncertainty
later in this forecast period.

Temperatures will remain below average for this time of the year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  85  62  84 /  50  10  10  10
Hobart OK         70  86  64  86 /  60  30  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  72  87  70  87 /  60  40  20  20
Gage OK           63  86  61  85 /  20  10  10  20
Ponca City OK     61  85  59  84 /  20   0   0   0
Durant OK         72  87  69  85 /  60  40  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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