Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 290943
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
443 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at most TAF sites over the
next 24 hours with a breezy south wind. A cold front and or
outflow winds will bring a wind shift to GAG/WWR/PNC mainly
after 6Z Friday. Thunderstorms will be possible mainly in and
around PNC after 6z with MVFR conditions possible.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...
More hot and breezy/windy weather can be expected today.  Convection
developing across northern Kansas and eastern Colorado early this
morning may move and develop to the south, but will remain well
north of Oklahoma. Similar to yesterday, mid level clouds have
developed but are located farther east. Will have to watch to see
if these clouds produce some isolated light showers through the
early morning.

During the afternoon, rather dry air may move into far western/northwest
Oklahoma. The wind may decrease some during the mid to late
afternoon across northwest Oklahoma, as a cold front approaches.
Areas along and west of Interstate 35 may see a few hours of
elevated fire weather conditions, especially areas that have
received very little rain since early May.

During the evening and especially the overnight hours, showers and
thunderstorms will likely develop as a cold front approaches parts
of northern Oklahoma.  Very warm 7h temperatures 16-18C should limit
storms over northwest Oklahoma, but storms will be possible over
at least north central Oklahoma. Strong gusty winds and heavy rain
will be possible with the stronger storms.

Will keep higher rain and storm chances for Friday afternoon and evening
over parts of central and southern Oklahoma. An outflow boundary
from late Thursday/early Friday convection may complicate things,
but at least widely scattered thunderstorms should develop along a
cold front by late Friday afternoon. Instability and deep layer
shear will support severe storms that produce large hail and
damaging winds. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southward Friday night
into early Saturday with a continued risk of strong to severe
storms. Thunderstorm coverage should decrease through Saturday
morning as a shortwave trough move east of the area.

Additional thunderstorms, some strong to severe, may develop
again by Saturday evening. Initially, storms should form over
southern Oklahoma with development to north during the late
evening and overnight.

Better storm chances Sunday night into Monday should mainly be north
and east of Oklahoma along the nose of a strong low level jet.

Another trough will move across the southern/central Plains late
Monday into Tuesday. This will bring another chance for showers
and storms, especially across the northern half of Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  94  74  93  69 /   0  10  40  70
Hobart OK         97  75  97  68 /   0   0  30  50
Wichita Falls TX  96  76  98  72 /   0   0  20  50
Gage OK           98  69  85  62 /  10  10  20  20
Ponca City OK     94  72  87  66 /   0  30  40  50
Durant OK         91  75  93  73 /   0   0  20  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$


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