Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061632
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1232 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH NOON UPDATE...HAVE MADE ADDITIONAL CHANGES FOR HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. CLOUD COVER HAS NOT HELD DOWN TEMPERATURES AS MUCH
AS EXPECTED...EVEN IN THE EAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE EXPECTED TO
BE COOLER...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPERATURES BACK UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. WITH VERY WEAK STEERING
FLOW...ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING IN NATURE AND
COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR. JUST RECENTLY
ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ALLEGHENY COUNTY...BUT
CONSIDERING ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...THESE RAINFALL RATES
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO BRING THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE
TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM BEING A SLOWER OUTLIER.
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE USING A
BLEND OF RAW GFS NUMBERS AND GFS GRIDDED MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST IN RELATIVELY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES HARD TO TIME HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WPC PROGS WHICH SEEMED A GOOD
COMPROMISE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AOA 3KFT...HOWEVER...MVFR
CIGS/VIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE OBSERVED DURING HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. VFR OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG BEFORE
DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.