Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 031423
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
923 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy and seasonably cool weather will continue today. The next
chance for widespread precipitation will come early Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
With 9:15am update, minimal changes were made to hourly
temperatures and sky cover, as well as adding some morning
flurries to the forecast across the Pittsburgh metro area. Cold
northwest flow off the Lakes will maintain widespread cloudiness.
Low mixing levels/lack of dendrite formation will inhibit
problematic snow shower potential.

Weakening flow under building high pressure may alleviate the
clouds tonight. Temperature under this low amplitude will remain
near the seasonal averages.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Split mid level flow continues to result in a difficult
precipitation forecast for Sunday afternoon and night. Have
continued with chance pops everywhere, with a rain snow mix
possible most areas. Again only light accumulation possible
generally north of State route 422 in PA. Precipitation will
shift east by Monday as shortwave exits east. Quiet weather will
be short lived however as low pressure will be quickly moving
northeast toward the region with mainly rain arriving Monday night
and continuing into Tuesday. Temperatures will remain near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Timing of a strong cold front continues to be uncertain in the
models, with the GFS still faster than the ECMWF. Have again used
the model blend with a nod toward WPC extended progs. This will
push the cold front across the region by Thursday, with much
colder air and scattered snow showers to end the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR cigs can be expected at all ports except ZZV through most of
the day. Improvement is anticipated from the southwest tonight as
northwest flow at the top of the boundary layer weakens, but
restrictions with residual moisture and upslope should persist at
FKL and DUJ into the night.

Expect to see occasional gusts of 15 to 20kts today as cold
advection maintains the mixing layer, which looks to be shallow
enough to leave snow showers unmentionable.

.OUTLOOK...
Restrictions are likely with crossing low pressure systems during
the first half of the new week.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


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