Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 252130

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
530 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

A weak disturbance may provide a few showers late tonight. A warm
and increasingly humid air mass arrives for tomorrow and remains
through the weekend, with rain chances each day.


530pm update...have pushed inclusion of pops later into the
overnight hours as a lack of lift, and very dry air near the
surface, is preventing the development of showers. Have updated
overnight temperatures with the latest hires guidance.

Previous discussion...

A weak wave will slowly make its way across the area tonight and
Thursday. Precipitation chances were kept low overnight, owing to
an overall lack of moisture and lift. Dewpoints will be on the
increase tomorrow afternoon, which combining with slightly cooler
temperatures aloft, will create a more favorably unstable profile.
Thus, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
during this period.

Temperatures above seasonal levels are expected for tonight and
Thursday, with only minor changes to the previous forecast.


Minor changes were made to the forecast as models are in agreement
of the over all pattern. Moisture and instability is expected
continue to increase in southwest flow through Saturday on the
western periphery of an eastern CONUS ridge. With a lack of
significant shortwave support, expect mainly diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms. The warming trend will continue, with
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels expected using
the latest model blend.


Ensemble models continue to indicate the east coast ridge persisting
through the period. A relatively moist and unstable airmass in place
should result in daily, mainly diurnally driven shower and
thunderstorm chances through the period. Temperatures are expected
to average 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels. Used edited
Superblend guidance for the long term period to account for
uncertainty and to smooth out day to day operational model


VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon and evening
hours. An isolated shower or thunderstorm remains possible across
southeast Ohio, but any restriction would be very brief. A
slightly more organized threat of rain will occur later tonight
and into Thursday morning as a weak disturbance moves across, but
chances remain too low to include restrictions in TAFs. Towards
the end of the TAF period on Thursday, a bit more numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected to form in an increasingly
unstable airmass. It is still too early to pin down location and
timing, but restrictions will be more possible by then.

Restriction chances in afternoon/evening scattered showers and
possible thunderstorms will continue into the weekend.




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