Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041019
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
619 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE DAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD.
THIS SHOULD BRING DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO
REACH 80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
MAY PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. MOISTURE AND
LIFT ARE LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

ANOTHER DRY AND COMFORTABLE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. WILL LIKELY SEE CU DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS COOLER AIR
ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING.
SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND MOVE ACROSS
MISSOURI AND INTO ILLINOIS. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
HAS SLOWED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS STILL WRANGLING WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...AND
IN TURN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS. MODELS ARE IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE REAL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS STILL TRYING TO DETERMINE A SOLUTION FOR A SURFACE WAVE
WHICH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER THIS
POINT...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TAF SITES...SAVE DUJ...ARE ESCAPING FOG FOR THE MOST PART THIS
MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS ARE STILL SEEING REDUCED VISIBILITY THOUGH...MAINLY NORTH
OF PIT. SOME VFR SC/AC CONTINUES TO LINGER SOUTH OF THE CITY. ANY
FOG/LOW CLOUD WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
FORECAST FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SCT/BKN VFR CU.
WNW BREEZES WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS IN SOME LOCATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS WEST OF PIT MAY SEE WINDS DIE OFF
ENOUGH TONIGHT FOR LATE FOG...WHILE PIT ON EAST SHOULD REMAIN
STIRRED ENOUGH TO PREVENT IT. AN ISOLATED VFR SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AT FKL/DUJ AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


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