Area Forecast Discussion
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886
FXUS61 KPBZ 081957
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
257 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOUNDARY WITH COLD ADVECTION IS WORKING ACROSS REGION AT 20Z WITH
MIXED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. AS CLOSED LOW ROTATES INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY FORM OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST WITH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF PA INTO NRN WV AND THE
RIDGES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHERE ADVISORY IS IN PLACE. ACROSS THE NORTH COLD
ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BUT
LESSER AMOUNTS THEN EXPECTED SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE
UPPER 20S BY EARLY MORNING...WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IN
COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COASTAL LOW WILL RACE WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH CLOSED LOW
TO WOBBLE AND THEN OPEN BY WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH
THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WITH INCREASING COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BEST ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE RIDGES. LONG DURATION ADVISORIES CONTINUED ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND RIDGES WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 6-10 RIDGES WITH LOCALLY A
FOOT...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES IN GENERAL ELSEWHERE. FORECAST AMOUNTS
MAY BE ON THE HIGH END FOR THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
AVERAGE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
E COAST UPR TROFG IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THRU SAT. COLD TEMPS AND
PERIODIC SNOW SHOWER CHCS ARE EXPD AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE THRU THE
TROF...AND SOME LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. RIDGING AND
TEMP MODERATION IS EXPD SUN BEFORE SNOW CHCS RETURN MON WITH THE
NEXT APPROACHING TROF. THE LATEST SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR AND OCNL IFR IS EXPD AS RAIN AND
SNOW ACCOMPANY A CROSSING COLD FRONT. MVFR AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD PERSIST THRU TUE UNDER COLD UPR TROFG...WITH A PD OF IFR
SNOW EXPD FOR PORTS S OF PIT LT TNGT/TUE WITH A MORE ORGANIZED
SHORTWAVE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPD THRU SAT UNDER COLD UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ510-511-513.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ512-
     514.

&&

$$



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