Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300154
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
954 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET WITH
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS
INSTABILITY LESSENS. AFTER A WARM DAY...CLOUD COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
SHOULD KEEP LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. A COLD
FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND SREF FOR POSITIONING OF THE
FRONT AND PRECIP TIMING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE PROGGED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...PRECLUDING A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE PA/WV BORDER LATER SUNDAY...WITH A SURFACE WAVE PROGGED
TO TRACK ALONG IT SUNDAY EVENING. THE WAVE SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD START OUT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH A DECREASE
TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE NUMBERS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY USING THE
LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE SLOWED THE ENDING OF SHOWERS A BIT INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST RIDGES AS MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH TRYING TO DEVELOP
AND SHIFT EAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG COLD FRONT JUST
SOUTH OF REGION. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE FROM WPC PROGS AS DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK. BY LATE WEEK HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. NO WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL AFTER FROPA SUNDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BECOMING MORE LIKELY SUNDAY EVENING.
&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.