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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281713
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM FORECAST AS SHOWERS NOT REACHING DEEP
ENOUGH ALOFT FOR THUNDER TO BE WORTH MENTIONING. MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH CROSSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL END IN THE
RIDGES. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT PITTSBURGH FOR JULY
28TH IS 72 SET IN 1875. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH RECORD
LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE MID 70S
ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON WEDNESDAY MOISTURE
IS BETTER WITH SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$