Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020944
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
544 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WDSPRD DENSE FG WL CONT ERLY THIS MRNG WITH LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE
UNDER AN INVERSION. WL CONT WITH THE DENSE FG ADVY THRU 9AM. THE
FG SHOULD DSPT BY MID MRNG AS FG DEPTH IS NOT AS GREAT AS YDA.
OTRW...EXP RIDGING AND WRM ADVCTN TDA WITH DRY WEA. CI FM WKNG
TSTMS OVR IL SHOULD WORK INTO THE AREA LTR TDA...THOUGH THIS
SHOULD BE THINNING AND DCRG AS THE CLDS RUN INTO DRIER AIR. TEMPS
SHOULD BE SVRL DEG ABV SEASONAL AVGS TDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGING WL GRDLY SHIFT EWD TNGT WITH CONTD WRM ADVCTN. A CDFNT WL
ADVN E ACRS THE RGN LT FRI AND FRI EVE...THOUGH INITIAL SHWR
ACTIVITY WL LIKELY DVLP ALG A PRE FRONTAL TROF EARLIER IN THE DAY.
GFS/ECMWF PROGS SHOW LMTD INSTBY...THOUGH WITH WNDS ALOFT AND
SHEAR INCRG FRI WL MAINTAIN A CHC OF TSTMS IN THE FCST.

AFT FROPA...AN UPR LOW IS PROGGED TO SET UP ACRS ONTARIO...WITH A
SERIES OF SHRTWVS ROTATING ARND THE LOW INTO THE GT LKS RGN. THIS
WL KEEP SOME CHC FOR SHWRS MAINLY N OF PIT...THOUGH DID MAINTAIN
SOME UNMENTIONABLE SLGT CHC POPS FURTHER S.

ABV AVG TEMPS ON FRI WL BE REPLACED WITH TEMPS WELL BLO SEASONAL
LVLS BY THE WKEND AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO ARND ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL WOBBLE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH COO TEMPERATURES. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWER CHANCES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES. BY MIDWEEK UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH FOG AND STRATUS
UNDER A STRENGTHENING INVERSION. IFR FOR ALL SITES WITH LIFR AT
TIMES. IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK IS EXPECTED WITH MIXING FOR VFR
THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NEXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY
COLD FRONT. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023-041.

&&

$$

07/10




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