Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS66 KSGX 040353
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
853 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL ENHANCE THE MARINE LAYER AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR THROUGH THE PASSES AND ALONG THE DESERTS
SLOPES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER SATURDAY...A SLOW
TRANSITION FROM TROUGHING TO RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
PRODUCE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND A PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 900 PM...AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WAS PRODUCING
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...LEADING TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
COASTAL WATERS WHERE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WERE SLOWLY REFORMING.
WESTERLY WINDS REMAINED GUSTY THROUGH THE PASSES AND ALONG THE
DESERT SLOPES...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40`S.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH DIGGING
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW...WILL
ALLOW SOME DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER OVERNIGHT. TAKING OUR
3500 FT DEEP MARINE LAYER ON THE 00Z NKX SOUNDING TO AROUND 4000
FT BY DAY BREAK. CLEARING WILL LIKELY BE SLOW AGAIN FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH A FEW PATCHES OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS LINGERING
NEAR THE COAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS
PATTERN...INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 8 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL SST`S WILL KEEP THE COAST
CLOSER TO 3-5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THRUSDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE KEEPING THE
PATTERN BENIGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SLOWLY TRANSITIONING THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO WEAK
RIDGING BY THURSDAY. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE ECMWF IS
FAVORED DO TO BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND CORRELATION WITH
ENSEMBLE MEANS. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND
AND PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RETURN TO VALUES THAT ARE AT
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...

040300Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT LOW CLOUDS ARE NOW FORMING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH BASES AROUND 2500 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 4000 FT
MSL. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD INLAND
OVERNIGHT...IMPACTING COASTAL SITES BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z...POSSIBLY
REACHING KONT BY 11Z. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING IS NOT HIGH.
VIS WILL BE GENERALLY UNRESTRICED...EXCEPT ALONG THE HIGHER COASTAL
TERRAIN AND FAR INLAND ALONG THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS
WHERE THE TERRAIN MAY BE OBSCURED AT TIMES...LIKELY AFT 08Z.
CLEARING MAY BE LIMITED ON FRI IN SOME AREAS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY WITH BROKEN CLOUD BASES LIFTING ABOVE
3000 FEET AFTER 15Z.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA FL150 AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH FRI.

&&


.MARINE...

800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.BEACHES...

800 PM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY...PEAKING SUNDAY MORNING AT 3 FEET WITH A
PERIOD OF 20 SEC. SURF WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FEET BY LATE
SATURDAY...WITH SOME SETS TO 7 FEET ALONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FACING
BEACHES BY SUN MORNING. THE SURF WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MON
WITH A MIX OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH SWELLS. STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE
CURRENTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGHER SURF...CREATING DANGEROUS
SWIMMING CONDITIONS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT WILL BE IN EFFECT BEGINNING MID MORNING ON SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ALBRIGHT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PG


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.