Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 211143
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
345 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING A WARMING TREND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGEST ON TUESDAY...THEN WEAKEN INTO WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BRING COOLING AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SLOW WARMING. SLOW COOLING WILL RETURN
ON SUNDAY. WINTER BEGINS AT 3:03 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMING
INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE ON TUESDAY. SLOW COOLING WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE.

IN THE NEAR TERM...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR COASTAL AREAS WILL SCATTER
OUT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A DECENT FLOW OF
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BEGINNING MONDAY...PEAKING TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN WEAKENING INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST GUSTS TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE TYPICALLY WINDIER LOCATIONS FOR NORTHEAST
WINDS...BELOW THE CAJON AND BANNING PASSES...IN THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...AND NEAR THE RIDGETOPS AND
COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...COULD APPROACH
60 MPH...TOWARDS THE UPPER END OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM (CHRISTMAS THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FOR THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW WITH
COOLING AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. OFFSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SLOW WARMING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR NEXT SUNDAY...MUCH MORE
SO THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF EACH MODEL...WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BUT
WITH A LITTLE LESS AMPLITUDE THAN THE ONE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WOULD
BRING SLOW COOLING FOR INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
210950Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES 2000-3500 FEET
MSL WITHIN ABOUT 20 MI OF THE COAST AND AREAS OF VIS 3-5SM IN BR/HZ
IN THE VALLEYS...LOCALLY 1SM OR LESS. CLOUDS BECOMING FEW-SCT AND
VIS RESTRICTIONS CLEARING BY 15Z. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000
FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH MON MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MON MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
205 AM...COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FEET ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
205 AM...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE
ELEVATED SURF AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS MONDAY...PEAK TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN WEAKEN INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO COOL WEDNESDAY. LOWEST INLAND
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN RECOVER THURSDAY. INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO
RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE..SS









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