Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 241523 CCA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
823 AM PM PDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...The heat wave will remain over the region through
Monday before easing the rest of the coming week. The Excessive Heat
Warning remains in effect through Monday evening. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible over the southern Sierra today and
Sunday while dry conditions persist elsewhere.
&&

.UPDATE...Another quiet and warm start to the day today. Scattered
mid to high level clouds are drifting north into the region this
morning. These will continue to push north through the day. The
coverage of these clouds is not expected to have a widespread,
significant impact on high temperatures today. The added moisture
associated with these clouds is expected to bring an uptick in
convective activity this afternoon, mainly across the Sierra and
perhaps the White Mountains of Inyo County. Made some minor tweaks
to the precipitation and wind forecast for today for that area based
on the latest hi=res guidance. There may also be some smoke from the
Brian Head Fire at times today, mainly over far northern Mohave
County. -Wolcott-
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
333 AM PM PDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday.

The strong ridge of high pressure responsible for providing the
prolonged excessive heat will hold on through Sunday then begin to
give way Monday as an eastern Pacific trough pushes inland.
Temperatures today will be similar to Friday then highs will trend
downward 1-2 degrees Sunday and Monday. The most noticeable
difference today will be the addition of mid and high clouds that
were being pulled up by the eastern Pacific trough across southern
California/Arizona over our region. A disturbance in the trough will
brush the southern Sierra this afternoon and should increase the
possibility of thunderstorms compared to Friday. High resolution
models indicate more convection there this afternoon and also
generate associated wind gusts in the northern Owens Valley late
this afternoon and early evening. Gusty southwest winds will
accompany the incoming trough Monday leading to fairly extensive
areas gusting 30-35 mph Monday afternoon with gusts around 40 mph
possible over the western Mojave Desert of San Bernardino County.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday.

By Tuesday, the ridge over the southwest will be suppressed a bit as
a shortwave moves across the northern Great Basin. Suppression of
the ridge will continue through much of the work week as a trough
over Alberta, Canada will deepen and drape over much of the western
CONUS. Temperatures will see a 3-5 degrees drop by Tue with highs
only a few degrees above normals by mid week. Breezy southwest winds
are expected each afternoon with wind speeds 10 to 20 mph with gusts
up to 25 mph. Wednesday afternoon, both the GFS and ECMWF are
showing a tight gradient over much of central Mohave County. This
will cause some gusty southwest winds up to 30 mph Wed afternoon.
Otherwise, dry and mostly clear conditions through the work week.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...A northeast wind that pushed through the
terminal area will persist this morning with occasional gusts 15-18
knots likely from mid morning through early afternoon. A light
easterly component in the afternoon will become southwest to west in
the evening. Hot temperatures will continue through Monday with
afternoon highs at or above 110 degrees. Scattered high clouds will
be observed today however VFR conditions persist.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Northeast winds between 10 and 20 knots across southern
Nevada and the Colorado River Valley this morning will diminish this
afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the southern
Sierra this afternoon with downburst winds likely near any storms.
Gusty west winds 25-30 knots will develop across the western Mojave
Desert late this afternoon and evening. Hot temperatures will
continue across the Mojave Desert areas through the weekend with
afternoon highs at or above 110 degrees. Scattered high clouds and
VFR conditions expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The prolonged heat wave over the region will persist
through Monday then ease during the coming week. However, seasonally
hot and dry conditions will persist. Fire weather concerns will be
elevated Monday as southwest winds increase Monday afternoon with
extensive areas possibly gusting over 35 mph. Isolated thunderstorms
will be possible over the southern Sierra each afternoon today and
Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Creeks, streams and rivers along the eastern Sierra
slopes of Inyo County as well as the Owens Valley will be flowing
high and fast this week. Specifically, Rock Creek, Big Pine Creek
and Independence Creek have seen a significant rise in flows.
Minor flooding could occur near creeks as well as a few low water
crossings on some roadways. Remember, never drive through flooded
roadways or around barricades. Also, pastureland or farmland
adjacent to creeks, streams or rivers could experience areas of
standing water.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near record to record high temperatures will be possible today and
Sunday. The current record of consecutive days above 110 degrees in
Las Vegas is 10 days (1961), and for 115 degrees, 4 days (2005).

Las Vegas, NV Climate

           Forecast High Temps (F)       Daily Record Max Temps (F)
SAT (6/24):  114   113 (1961)
SUN (6/25):  112                          115 (1970)

          Forecast low Temps (F)       Daily Record High Min Temps (F)
SAT (6/24):  88    85 (2016)
SUN (6/25):  88                           86 (1974)
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation/Fire Weather...Adair
LONG TERM....Kryston

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