Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 271612

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
912 AM PDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A vigorous low pressure system will then slide over the
Great Basin and Four Corners region today through Tuesday leading to
strong winds along with some showers and slightly cooler
temperatures for our area. This will be followed by an even stronger
system Thursday into next weekend.

.UPDATE...Looking at latest radar data, it appears that showers and
clouds are spreading southeast a little faster than previously
forecast. I updated pop/wx/sky/qpf grids accordingly. Winds had
increased to advisory levels across western San Bernardino County as
expected. No changes planned to the wind advisories at this time.

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Gusty northwest winds of 20-25 knots and
increasing clouds around 9-10 Kft will push across the Las Vegas
Valley by 18Z. A few showers will be confined mainly to the
mountains. North winds will increase this evening and tonight with
speeds up to 35 kts likely overnight.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Strong west winds across the Western Mojave desert near
KDAG and KNXP will persist this afternoon and early evening. Wind
gusts of 40 - 50 knots can be expected. Otherwise, breezy conditions
out of the southwest or northwest direction can be expected
elsewhere, with a strong push of north winds expected near KBIH and
across southern Nevada this afternoon and evening where gusts over
35 knots will be possible. A few showers are also possible east of a
KTPH-KIGM line this afternoon and evening.

.SHORT TERM...through Wednesday night.

Trough will move through the region today bringing areas of showers
and isolated thunderstorms along with gusty winds areawide. Winds
will increase first this morning across western San Bernardino
County where gusts around 50 mph are likely. Looking at some of the
new hires models is seems that the winds will not be quite as strong
as previously thought. Have gone ahead and backed off on the high
wind warning and replaced it with a wind advisory. It is still
possible that a few isolated locations may see wind gusts reaching
warning criteria, but feel that those will be isolated. The
strongest winds are expected to develop after 8am and then continue
through the afternoon before diminishing this evening.

Precipitation will spread east and southeast today affecting mainly
the northern and eastern zones, especially Lincoln County where the
more widespread showers will occur. Forcing along a cold front that
will move through the region today and tonight will be strong enough
to generate a few isolated thunderstorms this afternoon mainly
across Lincoln and northern Mohave Counties. Outside of San
Bernardino County, winds are not expected to reach advisory levels
until the cold front passes which will be late afternoon and evening
for more areas. North winds up to 45 mph will likely develop across
most areas by late afternoon across central Nevada and then spread
south this evening into southern Nevada and northwest Arizona. Wind
advisories for those areas look good. Did go ahead and extend the
wind advisory for the river zones about 10 hours into Tuesday
evening as the strong northerly winds look to continue a bit longer.
The trough will push east on Tuesday with only a few showers
remaining over the eastern portions of the area, but we will
continue to see wind advisory levels winds through mid day Tuesday
with most areas seeing diminishing winds in the afternoon. The
exception will be down the Colorado River Valley where those winds
will remain strong through the afternoon.

Although we will see some cooler air advecting into the area behind
the front we are not expected to see a major temperature drop. In
fact we are only looking for about 2-5 degrees of cooling on

High pressure will build into the region Wednesday, but with a
continued northerly we are not expected to see much of a temperature
jump. Skies will be mostly sunny over most areas and some breezy
north winds will remain over the far eastern potions of the area.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday.

A windy spring weather pattern will persist through the long term
period. A continuous series of upper level lows will dive southeast
across the region. This will bring several rounds of windy weather
to the entire region along with areas of light precipitation to the
southern Great Basin.

The first of these systems in the long term period will push through
Thursday and Friday. At the moment, this system appears to be
slightly stronger than the one forecast to move through the region
today, both with the pre- and post-frontal winds. If the current
forecast holds, it may be necessary to issue a High Wind Watch in
the next couple days. The system will become rather moisture-starved
as it pushes into our neck of the woods, but some light
precipitation is possible across the southern Great Basin (mainly
Lincoln County) into northern Arizona.

As the system exits to the east on Saturday, elevated northerly
winds will continue down the Colorado River Valley. By Sunday,
models begin to diverge rapidly. It appears that the most likely
solution is calmer conditions under shortwave ridging in advance of
another system that could to move through next Monday/Tuesday.

Temperatures will generally bounce around within 10 degrees of
normal through the period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Reports of wind damage or low
visibility due to dust are encouraged. Otherwise...Spotters are
encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to
standard operating procedures.


Short Term...Gorelow
Long Term...Wolcott

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