Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 031714
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
914 AM PST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Another day of north or northeast breezes is
expected today with stronger winds down the Colorado River Valley.
Winds will decrease on Sunday as temperatures warm to near seasonal
averages.  Another sharp cooldown is expected during the middle of
the week, leading to a potential hard freeze in portions of
southern Nevada and northwest Arizona by Thursday morning.
&&

.UPDATE...

Updated the wind forecast this morning to match trends...which
included a bit slower of an increase in speeds/gusts in the Colorado
River Valley and somewhat lower magnitudes of each throughout the
day.  Except for wind-prone Bullhead City and Katherine Landing, may
be tough to reach wind advisory criteria in the lake zones today.

Temperatures are running about 2-5 degrees colder than this time 24
hours ago.  Not confident enough to lower highs a couple degrees,
but would not be surprised if max temps are a degree or two below
our current forecast.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...So far, models are performing quite
poorly with the winds today.  Current thinking is that directions
primarily will be 020-070 today with perhaps a burst or two of more
northerly or northwesterly winds, especially this morning.  Speeds
should generally be 7-15 kts with perhaps a gust or two to 20 kts.
Expect winds to become lighter and more variable this evening.  VFR
conditions through the period.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Breezy north winds will continue in the Colorado River
Valley today, but speeds/gusts will be lower than yesterday.
Elsewhere, predominant north or northeast flow near or below 10 kts
will increasingly become more terrain-driven with time.  VFR
conditions through the period.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM PST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...through Monday night.

Northerly breezes will continue across the area today, though speeds
will be less. The strongest winds will occur the Colorado River
Valley, where a Wind Advisory remains in place. Winds should begin
to subside there on Sunday as surface pressure gradient relaxes.

As high pressure takes control for Sunday, expect temperatures to
warm a couple degrees with light winds. The area then transitions to
a mainly dry northwest flow ahead of the next system for Monday.
There is little in the way of precipitation chances, but periods of
considerable high cloudiness look to begin Monday.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday.

Looks to be better agreement in the pattern this morning as compared
to yesterday. Period starts out with a cold upper low over central
Canada with a shortwave digging south through the Pacific
Northwest/northern Great Basin. Shortwave progged to slide southeast
through east central Nevada and into southern Utah late Tuesday
afternoon/Tuesday night. System lacking moisture with precipitable
water values forecast to be about a tenth of inch across the Great
Basin Tuesday. There may just be enough dynamics along the cold
front for a slight chance of light snow showers in northeast Lincoln
County Tuesday. Cold front will sweep south through southern Nevada
and the Mojave Desert Tuesday night ushering in another dose of cold
temperatures Wednesday/Thursday. This round looks even colder than
earlier this week as this air mass has Arctic origins. Guidance
giving McCarran below freezing temperatures (29-33) Thursday and
Friday mornings. Good chance much of the valley with experience a
hard freeze Thursday morning with guidance ranging from 23-28
degrees away from McCarran.

Temperatures will slowly modify late in the week as heights rise and
flow aloft becomes more westerly by next weekend. There are some
differences with extent of precipitation associated in an area of
warm air advection associated with disturbances passing by to our
north. Did include a slight chance of showers along the eastern
Sierra slopes of Inyo County Thursday night and Friday, dry
elsewhere.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather conditions according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

Update/Aviation:  Shafer
Short Term:  Steele
Long Term:  Pierce

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