Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 062159
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

VALID 081200Z - 141200Z

AMPLIFIED WRN CONUS RIDGE/ERN CONUS TROUGH PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD /12Z MON/. THIS
PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE D5/WED WHEN THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE ERN CONUS ENCOURAGES LONGWAVE TROUGH DEAMPLIFICATION.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WRN CONUS RIDGING WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE
PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE ON LATE D6/THU BUT A TREND TOWARDS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY PREVENT PERSISTENT RIDGING ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS: D3/MON THROUGH D6/THU...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT
PRECLUDING MOISTURE RETURN. A FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST ON
D3/MON FROM NW TX/SW OK SWD INTO DEEP S TX AS BREEZY NWLY WINDS
OCCUR AMIDST DRY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS. THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY THE OFFSET BETWEEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS /OVER OK/ AND THE DRIEST CONDITIONS /S-CNTRL AND S TX/. COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL ACT TO MITIGATE FIRE
POTENTIAL AS WELL. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH ARE
EXPECTED IN AREAS WHERE MIN RH VALUES COULD APPROACH 20-25 PERCENT.
THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH DRY FUELS WILL RESULT
IN A FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

THE NEXT FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ON D5/WED AS LEE TROUGHING
DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
SURFACE LOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. GUIDANCE VARIES ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH RESULTING
DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
BUT ENOUGH CONSISTENCY EXISTS TO MAINTAIN 40-PERCENT PROBS FOR THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST /WITH SOME TRIMMING OF THE SOUTHERN EXTENT/.
REPEAT OF THE D2/SUN SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE ON D6/THU...WHEN A BRIEF
WINDOW FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX
HILL COUNTRY AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE BUT UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
TIMING AND DURATION OF THE GUSTY WINDS PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF
ANY PROBS WITH THIS FORECAST.

...SOUTHERN CA: D3/MON THROUGH D4/TUE...
OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY REACH ITS PEAK FOR THIS EVENT ON
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE GUSTS OVER 50 MPH THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF SRN
CA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. AFTER
D3/MON MORNING....THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
MID-WEEK BUT THE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS FOR MUCH OF D3/MON. ADDITIONALLY...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S /10-15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE/ WITH MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT. THESE
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY ON
D2/SUN NIGHT INTO D3/MON MORNING WILL RESULT IN PROLONGED PERIOD OF
LOW RH. ACROSS LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...FUELS HAVE DRIED
OUT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS AND
FAVORABLE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THREAT AND A 70-PERCENT THREAT AREA HAS BEEN DELINEATED
ACCORDINGLY. FARTHER S...METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR A FIRE WEATHER THREAT BUT FUELS ARE MORE MOIST...PRECLUDING THE
NEED FOR A 70-PERCENT THREAT AREA.

..MOSIER.. 02/06/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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