Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 262045
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VALID 281200Z - 031200Z

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY ON D3/WED AND THEN EWD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY ON D4/THU. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING JUST AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE A SIMILAR PATH...RESULTING IN SOME GUSTY NW
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS ON D3/WED. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SHOWS A SLIGHT DISSOCIATION BETWEEN THE STRONGEST WINDS AND LOW RH
VALUES...INCREASING UNCERTAINTY TOO MUCH TO INCLUDE A 40 PERCENT
AREA WITH THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AND A THREAT AREA MAY NEED TO BE DELINEATED
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE THROUGH WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FIRST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WITH THESE TWO FEATURES AIDING IN THE
DEEPENING OF A NEGATIVELY-TITLED UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES LATE D4/THU AND D5/FRI. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FARTHER W...UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN DEEPENING OVER THE SWRN CONUS ON
D5/FRI. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING
WEEKEND...WHILE PROMOTING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND SRN PLAINS.

..MOSIER.. 01/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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