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FNUS28 KWNS 302045
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

VALID 011200Z - 071200Z

UPPER TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE WRN CONUS ON D3/THU WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WHILE ALSO BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED. ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AS WELL AS
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PROMOTE STRONG/GUSTY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN/CNTRL GREAT BASIN...PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES FROM D3/THU THROUGH AT
LEAST D6/SUN. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR
PROBABLE ACROSS THESE AREAS IN THIS TIME FRAME. WHILE MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE DOES BEGIN TO DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION/STRENGTH OF THE WRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
NOW EXISTS IN STRONG/GUSTY SFC WINDS OCCURRING TO INCLUDE 40
PERCENT/MARGINAL PROBABILITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE W THROUGH D6/SUN.

...D3/THU - D6/SUN: PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL GREAT BASIN...INTERIOR
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...
FOR D3/THU...THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR STRONG/GUSTY WINDS TO OVERLAP
LOWERED RH VALUES APPEARS TO BE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN/CNTRL GREAT
BASIN INTO SERN ORE AND PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES. ACROSS THIS
REGION...MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THU
EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NRN CA. UNCERTAINTY IN THE OCCURRENCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
AOA 20 MPH REMAINS TOO HIGH TO INCLUDE A 70 PERCENT/CRITICAL AREA AT
THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTIVE OF
A RELATIVELY NARROW N-S CORRIDOR OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL EXTENDING FROM FAR NERN NV/NRN UT INTO PARTS OF THE NRN
ROCKIES FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MARGINAL FORECAST PWAT
VALUES...SUFFICIENTLY FAST STORM MOTIONS...AND A GENERALLY
DRY/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT WETTING RAINFALL
POTENTIAL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR.

FOR D4/FRI THROUGH D6/SUN...40 PERCENT/MARGINAL PROBABILITIES FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED/INTRODUCED
BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF RECENT DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL
GUIDANCE. A BROAD CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED SWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS
ATTENDANT TO THE WRN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND PARTS OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...AND
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT FOR EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS SOME PORTION OF THIS REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE ON D4/FRI ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NRN/CNTRL GREAT BASIN...AND 70 PERCENT PROBABILITIES
MAY BE INTRODUCED FOR SOME PART OF THIS REGION IN A LATER OUTLOOK.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE 40 PERCENT/MARGINAL AREAS FOR EACH DAY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION/STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER TROUGH INCREASES.

..GLEASON.. 08/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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