Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
000
ACUS48 KWNS 040842
SWOD48
SPC AC 040841

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CDT SAT JUL 04 2015

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MID/UPPER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE AN INCREASINGLY PROMINENT HIGH CENTER BUILDS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK OVER MOST AREAS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES UNTIL THIS OCCURS...WHEN VERY WARM MIXED LAYER AIR FROM THE
ROCKIES/PLATEAU REGION MAY BEGIN OVERSPREADING A MOISTENING BOUNDARY
LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION.  THIS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WOULD
SEEM TO OFFER BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THE EVOLUTION OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS GIVEN SUFFICIENT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
HOWEVER...MID/UPPER IMPULSES TO CONTRIBUTE TO FORCING FOR THIS
ASCENT ARE NOT READILY EVIDENT AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE.  DUE TO BOTH
LOW POTENTIAL AND LOW PREDICTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES
REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..KERR.. 07/04/2015


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.