Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
000
ACUS48 KWNS 060859
SWOD48
SPC AC 060858

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2016

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF A CLOSED LOW EMERGING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
LATE THIS WEEKEND MAY SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY ON MONDAY.  HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING
SMALLER-SCALE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC DEVELOPMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE CONTINUE TO INCREASE...AND THIS FEEDS BACK INTO
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING RELATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...IT
DOES APPEAR THAT SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAY BECOME MOST FOCUSED
ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS IS
EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH AN AREA OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
PIVOTING AROUND THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...AND
ROUGHLY ALONG A 50-70 KT CYCLONIC 500 MB JET...WHERE SHEAR PROBABLY
WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...POSSIBLY INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS.

THEREAFTER...CONTINUED MOISTENING AND POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST...AND EVENTUALLY BACK
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS....THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
HOWEVER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE PATTERN
EVOLUTION...PARTICULARLY AT SHORTER WAVELENGTHS.  AND SUB-15 PERCENT
SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED.

..KERR.. 05/06/2016


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.